This memorandum reflects the experience and analysis of this publisher and does not allege wrongdoing by any party. That said, it does reflect a change in operations. And as a reader—hopefully a long-term one—we are taking the extraordinary step of being fully transparent with respect to your privacy and your attention. You May Notice the … Read More
What Matters More Than the Noise Two signals today deserve serious attention — and neither has much to do with the shouting matches dominating cable news. First, the jobs picture. ADP’s January number came in at just 22,000 jobs created nationwide, a figure that borders on stall speed. Normally, we’d look to follow-on data to … Read More
Here’s the Simple Truth: Some people who owned silver and gold sold during the collapse. Others held and are in no hurry to sell. There’s a marvelous lesson on how to Play Life for minimal losses – which is ou r stock-in-trade around here: Have a firm idea of when you will sell any time you buy … Read More
There is increasing activity in China and the Western (rabid) social media about war – in one form, or another – around February 17th. This isn’t just on social – it’s also showing up in Google Search trend analysis. On the left, you’ll see mid December, a spike in mid January. But we are most concerned … Read More
I was planning to have my little deck project done a long time ago. I was able, materials were on hand, but something else held me back: weather. See, when you hit 77 you’ll find a little “voice alarm” that will go off in Ure head. “Cut yourself some slack…you deserve to enjoy a build like … Read More
Most people spend their weekends drowning in headlines that won’t matter by Monday — while missing the few signals that will. This week’s Peoplenomics cuts through the noise with a simple question: what actually changes people’s lives in the next 72 hours? Weather, shutdown mechanics, markets, supply chains, and geopolitical risk all get ranked — … Read More
Seat belts fastened? Seat backs and tray tables up and locked? Futures down hard before breakfast. The market’s daily reminder that confidence is a perishable good. A kind of “just ahead of Valentine’s” massacre in finance is swirling. Fair warning: this is one of those mornings where the market opens first — and then something … Read More
The news drives people to drink. Old news directors in particular. But now, there’s so much “Slip ’N Slide” to the headlines, we just sit back (stone sober) and wonder how the world could possibly get any stranger. Then we turn on the feed-screener and, oh boy. Things haven’t “hit the fan” but we can … Read More
“In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3?1/2 to 3?3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of … Read More
Most investors look at a rising market and assume progress. But on a Fed Day, that assumption can be expensive. Price moves for three very different reasons: real business improvement, currency dilution, and story momentum. If you don’t separate them, you end up celebrating gains that are really just your money getting weaker. Today’s column … Read More
Highlights from the Case-Shiller/S&P (which is Cotality?) Housing report just out. YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 1.4% annual gain for November. The 10-City Composite showed an annual increase of 2.0%, up from a 1.9% increase in the previous month. The 20-City … Read More
“Oh dear, what can the matter be?” Well, now that you mention it – we have a rather extensive list to bubble sort before we get to the Housing numbers in a second post. Yeah, I know – what happened to shorter columns, right? The China Matter For now, events of the past week are … Read More
When I mentioned to the Peoplenomics crowd that we didn’t go short over the weekend, it was an abundance of caution. And, it was accompanied by a warning: News is Driving. China: Purge Or Invasion of Taiwan Gold screamed past $5,100 overnight and silver is nearly $110. We’re hearing things — many — strategic things … Read More