TL;DR: Fed faces three problems this week: NFIB optimism may clash spending, while PPI and CPI inflation risks rise. Rally to chill? Plus a lesson in Ure family wisdom. Three Problems for the Fed Common Wisdom on the street is that the Fed will lower on the 17th by at least a quarter and maybe … Read More
TL;DR: Markets may rally briefly, but Fed rate cuts won’t fix the long slide in U.S. manufacturing. IPO hype won’t close the China gap. Learning collectives could. Modest Rally – But Then? We anticipate a modest rally today. Not likely to last, though. That’s because a week from Wednesday the Fed will likely drop rates … Read More
Tl;DR: Our spicey old Saturday Gourmet column is back for an occasional peek – meeting the ShopTalk mindset and fascination with “Having the right tools.” You see, having the right pan is like having the right saw blade — sure, you can hack it out, but why not make it smooth, easy, and a little … Read More
Bad enough America was sold-out by the rich when Job-Jacking took hold and industry moved to least-cost labor centers. Today it’s even worse. As the market put on a rally in the face of terrible job numbers, then fell back to earth by the close. This morning, some serious bile on that – after which … Read More
TL;DR: “Federal jobs spin keeps markets swallowing anything, even marginal new highs. Trump headlines dominate, and a new frontier in mind amplification is emerging. The fog thickens—here’s what it means.” Jobs Fog Jethro Tull meets economics? Getting thick as a brick out there. Lackluster growth in the ADP numbers and the Challenger job cuts report … Read More
Yes. 13-days out from the 17th when the FOMC rate decision will be announced. Before we lay out this morning’s ADP and Challenger job numbers – ahead of tomorrow’s Federal data – a word about the Fed. I’m working on a longer piece for our Peoplenomics.com subscribers (they get rhyme and verse). But, the general idea … Read More
Wherein we propose that Psychology and Medicine have missed something huge. It’s our noticing that humans – like computers – have differing performance based on indexing strategies. A lesson rediscovered as Ai has advanced. I asked Ai to assess this theory and the feedback was positive: “The idea that humans can learn from AI about … Read More
Updating our chart from the preopen with 15-minutes of trading in: This is not trading advice. (Got Depends?) -ure
Weekend here in the woods was fractured: Research & writing, binge watching (Dark Wolf, Butterfly on Amazon), and modeling inflation ahead. The research breakthrough is in how people “Index Life.” (I’ll also tell you about my best-ever spaghetti, too…) To us, present times are strong on the 1929 Replay vibe, but it riffs off one … Read More
US Markets are closed. Labor(ing) Day. Inflation Will Save Us! (???) Even though it’s a “day off” our net worth keeps stacking up. Why? Well, I am the guy who said “load the boat on silver” when we were out in Burbank on a contract job back in 2005. Under $7 an ounce… Let this sink … Read More
The UrbanSurvival AI User and Researcher School offers more to learn about AI: Ai_Users/Formatics/Hidden_Guild_Field Manual – Hidden Guild While you’re there, be sure to look at the evolving body of knowledge we’re capturing over there… -Ure
Relax. Sit down and take a load off. There’s a lot to talk about (other than my week blowing up because of hackers (@#$%^&*). We have several topics that will give you a real sense of what owning “big property” is all about. People in the city, way we hear it, actually exist, who have … Read More
G.A. Stewart’s post on his The Age of Desolation website is awesome. He’s gotten into ChatGPT in CHATGPT AND G. A. STEWART’S VERSION OF NOSTRADAMUS – THE AGE OF DESOLATION. Must read. Two items for Stu: My Hidden Guild website https://hiddenguild.dev offers a ton of ideas of how to better human-partner Ai into the loop. … Read More