Our Peoplenomics.com subscribers have to be delirious about the accuracy of our work.  Did I, or did I not tell ya’ll last week that the market should put in a short-term low today?

Earlier, it was looking like the Dow would open down 20, but I reckon it will drop even more later on.  Then (as least statistically) we have a 12:5 chance of a rally into the Fed announcement on the 15th.

Yeah, I know if you don’t invest, you’d like me to stick to gross end of the world predictions and doom porn.  But the best arbiter of whose future forecasting is really worth something is how a real-life trading account does.

Oh, sure, old-line predictors can get uppity about how futuring shouldn’t be connected with money.  But maybe because money made on a prediction is so tough to BS your way through…it’s something to think ab out, though.

Trade Data

Our press release du jour:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $48.5 billion in January, up $4.2 billion from $44.3 billion in December, revised. January exports were $192.1 billion, $1.1 billion more than December exports. January imports were $240.6 billion, $5.3 billion more than December imports.

The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $4.0 billion to $69.7 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $0.3 billion to $21.2 billion.

Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit increased $5.1 billion, or 11.8 percent, from January 2016. Exports increased $13.3 billion or 7.4 percent. Imports increased $18.4 billion or 8.3 percent.

If you like charts:

This afternoon, the Feral Reserve (sic) will announce the Consumer Debt numbers which could pop the market this-a-way or that-a-way.  This report is paraded as the “Consumer Credit Report” but that’s because the Banksters are the creditors.

This is really the “How many people got sucked into putting on a further Yoke of Debt this past month Report.”

Broke America

With reports running around that half of Americans can’t write and cover a $500 check for emergencies, we found the BankRate.com story over here pretty interesting: “Just 4 in 10 Americans have savings they’d rely on in an emergency…

We note that BankRate.com doesn’t track the special rates available from the National Bank of Dad.

Earth’s Dying Sun

Hey, there’s a positive, upbeat story for you: Solar Cycle Progression as measured by sunspots counts from NASA:

As you can see, with the sunspots down, it means solar output is down and so while the climate is changing it could be the modern analog to the Maunder Minimum.  We will find out in time.

Replacing Obamacare

Change something – even if it’s wrong!  That’s what the GOP seems to be doing on Obamacare reform.  CNBC’s Op-Ed: The GOP health bill doesn’t know what problem it’s trying to solve is worth a read.

Death by Pokemon?

Can’t make this one up:  Man suffers fatal heart attack after catching rare ‘Pokemon Go’ creature.

Hungary for Truth

Ah…someone is saying it out loud:  “Hungary PM: Migration is ‘Trojan wooden horse’ of terrorism.”

Political Data In Depth

Interesting press release here:

NEW YORK, March 6, 2017 /PRNewswire/ — Convergex, an agency-focused global brokerage and trading related services provider, released the results of its “Take Your Trump-erature” survey, designed to gauge President Trump’s possible impact on the financial markets. The survey, which was conducted from February 21, 2017 through February 24, 2017, garnered a record number of responses with some surprising results.

According to the survey findings, 74% of financial industry participants have a positive outlook on the financial markets, even though only 40% of the respondents approve of the job President Trump is doing thus far. However, only 20% of the respondents expect the market volatility (as measured by the CBOE VIX index) to increase more than 25% over the next 4 years, revealing an ongoing complacency about possible dramatic market fluctuations.

“We were surprised at some of the survey findings regarding Wall Street’s sentiments of the financial markets while under President Trump’s watch,” said Eric W. Noll, Covergex CEO and President. “It is clear from the results that most of the respondents feel President Trump will have a positive impact on the near-term prospects of the financial market, even if they don’t necessarily agree with his overall vision for the country.”

Below is an overview of the key survey findings:

  • While only 40% of survey participants give their approval of “Trump the President,” almost 74% give him high marks (grade A or B) for his effect on the investment climate for stocks. Moreover, over 57% expect stocks to do better over the next 4 years under a Trump Presidency than if Clinton had won the Presidency (21%).
  • Changing tax policy is the most important aspect of Trumponomics to equity markets, according to 54% of respondents. Deregulation came in 2nd (25%) and Infrastructure spending came in 3rd (16%).
  • Survey respondents think the equity markets want to see lower corporate taxes (46% ranked this “most important”) and lower repatriation rates (29% said that was “most important”) far more than lower individual/personal taxes (only 19% said that was “most important” to US equities) or the adoption of border taxes (4%).
  • Q4 2017 was the most common expected timeframe (28% of the responses) as to when new tax legislation would pass. Q3 2017 was second, with 23% of respondents.
  • Favorite Trump Trade sectors: 92% of respondents said Trump policies will help Financials the most, followed by Energy (89%) and Industrials (84%). Least favored: Healthcare (29%) and Consumer Staples (46%).
  • Active over passive: 63% of respondents say the Trump administration will be better for active management rather than passive management (16%).
  • Financial industry biggest worries: Congress not passing legislation (31%) and trade/currency war (32%). Respondents were least concerned about company-specific tweets (4%) and Trump’s Immigration policy (5%).

Full survey results are available here:

War in the Wings

North Korea is missile rattling again.

Hey, I figured it out:  Maybe they’re trying to talk the South into submission.