With the Federal Reserve rolling in M1 (which is being puffed up at a nearly 12% annual rate presently) it seems odd that I would tell you in the May 6 column that “Markets to Drift Lower.”
Yet, on May 6th, the S&P 500 closed at 2,057 and change. Yesterday’s close was at 2,047 and change. Pretty much exactly what we’ve been telling our Peoplenomics.com subscribers to be on the look-out for.
There is a lot of good news, however, once we drift down more (perhaps 2,020 on the S&P but I’m thinking 2,000’ish): The market should begin a marvelous summer rally that may go to late August or even spill into mid September. We shall see as the waves and headlines roll out.
Globally, markets are nervous about the first week in June – because that’s when the ECB will meet on rates. About 10-days later, the Fed will meet.
As much as there’s a solid case to begin raising rates, the central banks are not really economic leaders. They are more like the co-dependents and enablers of economic insanity.
I say that somewhat tongue-in cheek. If it was really insanity, it would be more random and we wouldn’t be able to make reasonable market calls.
Yet for some reason, people don’t invest much in the market at a personal level.
A former colleague used to jeer at my emphasis in future forecasting for economic purposes as a total cop-out. His view was that I was throwing in with the Devil himself.
Yet there is a reason to test future forecasting on markets. The main one is that you can’t BS your way through a trade. The trade either makes money, or it doesn’t. Thus, throwing in with the Devil or not, the results of future forecasting are clear enough on the bottom line.
What’s the old saying? Cash talks, BS walks, isn’t it?
Thanks to a number of clever forecasting tools, we have been steadfastly confident in the current (and continuing) market rally for more than six months.
The tool set isn’t hard to learn: The only proprietary component is the Nostracodeus software program, yet that’s not the basis of our outlook.
Where it comes from is a synthesis of Long Wave Economics, which says yes, despite the Kool-Aid of the Quants, there’s more to life than math equations. Then we toss in a hefty dose of our own channel work, and I’ve learned a huge amount from following the work of my friend Robin Landry.
Where I get perplexed is in trying to understand how people spend their time and why.
I’m a pretty simple guy: When I work, I do so with one over-arching goal in mind: To make money at the most efficient rate.
When I play? Oh, my, do I have the toys…but I’m thinning that collection down.
Still, it’s reasonable to think of me as a binary-state human: Making money and when not doing that, on the other side of the flip-flop I’m trying to get as much pleasure out of my money as possible.
Seems pretty damn simple, doesn’t it?
Yet we live in a country where people have come down with “social disease” and it’s one of the most confounding phenomena – ever.
What we do is take computers and convince people to reveal intimate secrets about themselves to the government, the police, HR departments, ex-lovers, and anyone else who wanders along.
And we do it for no money!
I sit back at times in shock and amazement. In comparison, the famous antics of Charles Ponzi (of Ponzi scheme fame) pales in comparison.
Ponzi, you have to understand, like Madoff, only ripped off people’s MONEY.
Social media rips off people’s TIME.
The least you could do would be watch TED Talks. instead/
Maybe right now, you’re young enough that Money seems more important. But have way into year 67, I can assure you the flip into my camp will come and TIME will matter more than anything.
There are several other things the crooked “social media” scam have wrought.
Here, go read this story which beats up on CBS for having male stars in some of its upcoming shows…and then click back here.
You see where this is coming from? “#CBSSoWhite.”
Back in my reporting days, this would never have rated so much as a mention. When a reporter or headline writer uses a term like “Slammed” it somehow gives a sense of authenticity. Yet, the reality is ANYONE with a computer can wade into the pending SOCIAL ANARCHY and toss linguistic Molotovs all over the Internet.
And I would suggest that’s exactly what’s going on right now before our very eyes.
You see, AMREV2 – the “second American Revolution” – that some “futurists” have been predicting, is nothing more than a natural outgrowth of social media – which has become the social mob.
Of course, when you have a mob, someone will choose to incite and that’s where any number of stories may be traced back to.
I don’t care if you’re talking restroom idiocy, not enough gays, bi’s, or tri’s, or which way will Jenner flop…forensics of news point to Social Media as the prime purveyor.
And its here that the anarchists are having a field day. People don’t realize they are being HAD.
Why? Because the anarchists are able to make effective use of media manipulation tricks…and then it hits CNN as a hashtag, more traffic comes, and suddenly CBS is looking like the r-word.
Yet there is more too this: “CBS says shows are ‘more diverse’ despite criticism.”
About here, you can see what’s really going on, if you understand how data works.
It could be that the hashtag may trace back to a single disenfranchised actor, a disgruntled former employee, or whatever. Yet, it has become a “story.”
But is it?
We faced a similar problem – though a different scale – when in the 1960’s and 70’s we would routinely receive bomb threats.
The motivation of the anarchists of those times was anti-war, but also an even greater measure of self-satisfaction and perverse ego agrandizement by being able to empty out any business you care to name.
So a bunch of us level-headed people in the news business decided we would not report things like “City Light has just be evacuated because of a telephoned bomb threat…”
Instead, news policy was adjusted to meet the social need for stability. The new policy was that sure, we would report the bomb threat – after a bomb had been found, or after it had gone off. No empty-headed blowhards, thank you. And it worked – and still works till this day.
Yet the same adult approach to news is not applied to social media.
As a consequence, what may be one or two people can leverage the media into outrageous levels of hype.
Even more amazing, is that corporations don’t get it. The head-long insanity of this social media disease was something we covered in Peoplenomics a year or two back.
Essentially, I asked: “How stupid is a business that it would farm out its customers to a third party (the social mafia) where their own customers would be held hostage?
No, they can’t be that stupid, right? But go find any company with a lot of follows and you’ll find the socialists (to bend the meaning a bit) ready to hold up the businesses for access to their own freaking customers.
Hard to imagine, ain’t it?
But the way it works is the long-chain business model.
It was all free – AT FIRST.
Once all the hostages of the corporatings were facing and twitting, then along come the ads, the access charges…but not until the social outlets had grown so large as to be TBTF – Too Big To Fight.
I didn’t mean to get up on the soap box this early. And yes, social media is a great “audience builder” for companies and bloggers alike. But we don’t pay for social and we maintain our own comments section at UrbanSurvival because frankly, we can see through the mental fog that has rolled in across America.
Social Media may sound good, but when you look at the other things you could be doing with your time (like having a real life and interacting with people who are present in the same room as you are) social fades into one of the largest WTF’s out there.
But go ahead, twit or face something about Ure’s truly. We’ll skip the fracas and focus on the one thing we can turn into the things we desire: Large amounts of after-tax cash.
Anything else is mental masturbation and America has started to go blind from that.
No, make that is already vision impaired.
Write this down somewhere you can refer to in the future: Political Correctness Disease arises from media reporting social bomb threats.
We now return you to the real world – the one where love and money and personal relations count.
Side Bet on Terror
The reported crash of an EgyptAir flight with 66 aboard may have been a terrorism effort.
As a former airline VP, I can tell you that cabin pressure altitude armed devices were one of the things I worried about. Take off, climb to altitude, cabin pressure decreases to 5,000-6,000 feet, and when the descent starts, boom.
Just a side bet, we will know more later.
Not unexpected around here. Hillary Clinton is down 5 from leader Donald Trump.
Roll Me a Distraction Dept.
How about this one: Beijing Denies Dangerous Interception of US Spy Plane Over South China Sea.
When the other cards begin to fail, the Washington establishment will play the “War Card.” Just a matter of when…
Data Points: Philly Fed
“Firms responding to the Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey continued to report tenuous growth this month. The indicator for general activity was essentially unchanged in May and remained slightly negative. Other broad indicators also reflected general weakness in business conditions. The indicator for employment improved but remained negative. Manufacturers’ forecasts of future activity tempered slightly from last month, overall, but continue to suggest confidence in future growth.”
So, the Fed stomp on the gas hasn’t kicked in yet…
Markets sense this maybe with the futures down 40 something. But we have options hankypank today and tomorrow. Next week will be more meaningful..though I do expect to drift lower yet.
Once you weed out the political hype, and the social madness, it’s a fine morning to go back to bed for a snooze.
Gosh, what a salesman I am…I just sold myself on a brilliant idea…