Aggregate Markets: Make of Break Day?

I don’t make many claims of “wisdom” but more than 25 years ago, when I was finishing degree work (academic, not Masonic, lol) it vexed me no end that there was so much “painting of the tape” going on.  One index would veer higher (or lower) while not much else changed.

In other words, there are  so many indexes that if you only pick one (like the Dow Jones Industrials), you can be terribly misled.  This morning, for example McDonalds is weighing down the Dow.

There are lots of reasons for this  divergence issue:  The S&P 500 index, for example, is broader.  Including more companies makes for a statistically more defensible  “n”.

But it goes deeper than that.  The NASDAQ Composite is full of absolute  gems of coming tech.  Yet, because they have been so busy growing and may not meet the more-stringent NYSE listing requirements, what happens?  They don’t get measured  except in a tech index.

The failure to have this “wider view” of the markets became most apparent in the “tech wreck” following the spring 2000 market peak.  You see, in the Dow, and even the S&P, the response was muted.  But in  the tech indices? Well, somewhere between $5 and $8-trillion dollars is hard to sweep under the accounting rug.

That’s what our work on the Peoplenomics website is based on:  This simple notion that I had suggesting a more honest view of markets – long and short-term – could be constructed by picking a starting date (like 1/1/2000 which was mine) and then equally invest in each of several indices.

It didn’t matter what level a specific index was; just on your Day One you put a third of your assets into each of three.  A quarter of your assets into four, or whatever you think is reasonable.

Then, you can take it a step further:  I also built a “Global Index”  based on more than half a dozen countries.  Some were large – but some, like Australia – were included not so much because of size, but because of their resilience.  Being a bit insulated from the madness (see Europe) or the runaway hype (see the US lately) and separate from Asia…

The result is a view that is more binary, and I believe more reliable if you play the US ADR’s, than trying to psych-out France, or Canada, for example.  If gives you a sense, also, of which direction  underlying money flows are moving.  If the US market is up, while the rest of world is sagging, presumptively, money is “coming hither.”  Flipped around, it’s going yon.

Longish discussion, but it’s what leads into the next two days of trading as being terribly critical to the fight between bulls and bears from market supremacy.  That’s because in one Elliott Wave count, we could see a wave 1 up, a 2 down, and be ready to bust skyward.  Yet, in an equally convincing alternate Elliott Universe, there’s a case that a 1 Down has happened, a 2 Up, a 3 (i) down, and today we resolve an end to the 3 (ii) up.

We also like trend channels – a lot.  Go buy Gilbert Raff’s hardcover (*wish is was  Kindlized!) “Trading the Regression Channel: Defining and Predicting Stock Price Trends.”

Without further delay, here’s how this morning starts:

Which Way Will It Break?

Oh, boy, that’s the  billion dollar problem, ain’t it?

I wish I could tell you.  But, no one can.

I can report that the Dow was showing +22 at 7:30 AM EDT today on my screen.  But, when the market gets into this kind of position, there’s often – but not always –  a “fake-out” move one way, or the other.  Sure ‘nuf, then came the MacDonalds miss and Dow futures went negative.

I guess, if I was playing it like a casino (and it is a good analogy in many, many ways…) I’d say a minor rally at the open, maybe the day’s high coming about 25-minutes into the session.  Then, for the next 45-minutes, the “big guns” would be picking out positions.  After that, say around 10:45 AM, the market would begin to tip their hand.  But the truth will likely be the close.

Again, though, as that little “peekaboo” move above the trend channel suggests, was that a “test of going higher?”  Or, was it the Fed trying to dump money into markets knowing that there are models that – failing here – would have us getting into a serious 3 (iii) down and that wouldn’t complete (in some Elliott views) until a good bit lower than the Christmas Eve “slaughter of the elves” last year.

Sure makes getting up in the morning of interest, though.  If the peekaboo high is broken for two days, then yeah, new all-time highs could be ahead.  But, failing here, it’s the downside case, but even then there are alternate (“save the day”) cases, like the Fed pumping like mad – again.

So we shall see. For now, no more coffee is needed.  A 100- point Dow rise going into the close argues much higher, while a 100 point Dow loss could be pointing much lower.

It’s so much like putting $100-bucks on a progressive slot spin at the Twin Arrow’s Casino up on I-40 outside Flagstaff, Arizona, that I can’t stand it.

Blame the News Flow

There’s one school of thought that argues the market is like a slow-learner when comes to reading the news.  Sure, a major bombing, shooting, or overthrow somewhere and there’s an instant reaction.  But, slow-motion, go nowhere stories (like the ongoing crooked sage of Pencil Neck’s “secret hearings” the dems inquisitors are holding) are hard to call.  Essentially, the dems are trying to re-run the 2016 election –  in secret – while republicans are too damn stupid, cowardly, or both to stand up for “Daylight Government.”  RINO’s and fools, the whole lot of ’em.

With that bit of  bile spilt, onto headlines, any of which the market could seize on and go somewhere.

Upside Stories First

Any of these sound like “movers” and “shakers”?

Trump calls for solidarity from GOP ahead of potentially damaging testimony.  Whether he’ll get any is doubtful.  DC is full of ass-covering cowards.

Harley-Davidson tops forecasts as international sales improve.  But they always made a great ride and sometimes quality wins.

Samsung Joins Google and Amazon in Backing ‘Trapped Ion’ Quantum Computer Startup.  But, if faster computers are just going to me more and faster clickbait and spam, tell me what’s the point?  I still only compose at 100 WPM and  DragoonSpeak still can’t follow much of what I say.  (Neither can readers, thought…)

Procter & Gamble earnings, sales top estimates, shares jump.  Is a cleaner and fuller America ahead?

And Oil rises on optimism about prospects for a U.S.-China deal.  Remember, though, all that last go-round trade hype that turned into a nothing-burger?

Downside Stories Follow

The market. is no doubt talking the upside early, but let’s look at “downers in the wings.”

Let’s begin with the CNBC story “Long-term negative rates have ‘adverse consequences’ we don’t fully understand, says Jamie Dimon.”  But, with all due respect to Dimon, we do know what global financial collapse will look like.  1933.    Been thinking about it after another skim of Robert Kaplan’s book The Coming Anarchy: Shattering the Dreams of the Post Cold War. subscribers will want to review it in advance of tomorrow’s report…

This Holiday Season, Cyber Monday’s Popularity Could Turn Black Friday Blue, Survey Says.”  Echo of slaughtered elves, is it?

Made hamburger:  McDonalds missed expected earnings by a dime.  Say, they wouldn’t be in the market for a hamburger-helper, would they?  We’ll ketchup with them later, see if they’re still in a pickle…(OK, stop…enough already…)

Along the same lines,  Fortune also says “As Recession Looms, Investors Look for Cash to Cushion the Fall.”

Turkish president meets Putin after threatening to “crush” Kurds in Syria.  And here’s some optics for you: Russian Helicopters Land in Abandoned U.S. Base in Syria.

And Canada is now effectively leaderless (adding to rudderless) and Kid Trudolt is back, but without a majority.  Canada wisens slowly, it seems. (Unlike our tossing-out of present participles for self-amusement.)

Somewhere in the Middle

Radian Announces New Home Price Index; Shows 7.9% Year-Over-Year Increase in Median Prices.  If you own a home, great.  If you don’t, it just got more out of reach.

And while Americans’ Financial Satisfaction: Index to be Released this Thursday, October 24, I already know the answer.  We all want more – for less.  Some parts of the news flow are semi-predictable.

And we still have the “best government money can buy” as Facebook and Amazon Set Lobbying Records as Washington Eyes Big Tech’s Business Practices.

Around the Ranch

Zeus the Cat is beside himself:  There are two interlopers that are settling in to his home territory and he’s not sure how to handle it.  The cat (formerly “Culvert Kitty”) has moved into the stairwell where there’s a hidey-hole he’s adopted.  And an oldly marked female (who has a Joker-like face job) has moved to the 180-room deck.

Elaine’s trying to get them away from the house (the pea gravel unders the screen porch has become their waste disposal site…).  I suggested she feed them south a ways.  Houston was mentioned.

I’m trying to get Elaine to buy-in to myt naming idea:  3-Z’s:  Zeus, Zork, and Zimba…(She shurgs and wanders off, shaking her head.)

I’m looking for a “hell of a deal” on a spectrum analyzer.  Something like an HP-Agilent 3685A would be nice.  But at half the typical $600 going price on eBay.  Not necessarily for the time-bending experiments planned this fall, but it would be nice to have something that would do  both audio and RF measurements.  If you know of one on the cheap, you know who to write…

Leaves are starting to come down in significant number.  Although we’ve got another day of early fall weather today (read: high around 75 which is perfect for toddies on the screen porch) reality comes later in the week with a high of 60, lower 40’s on the other end, and upwards of an inch of rain.

According to, we’ve had 41.75 inches of rain so far this year.  That compares with 20.82 inches in Seattle, if the calculator isn’t lying.  (And its operator didn’t screw up.)  We;ve already had more rain this year than an Average Seattle year (41″) and we have 2-1/3 wet month’s ahead.

Well, the Mickey D earnings have pressed futures down, so off to carby-load for another exciting day in the 70’s…age-wise.

Write when you get rich,

45 thoughts on “Aggregate Markets: Make of Break Day?”

  1. I am watching the 3rd quarter earning releases this week. Based on the market earnings reported, so shall the tech sector go. For now bullish, don’t fight the tape. My favorite is the semiconductors who will supply the chips for AI, Internet of Things, Blockchain & Robotics.

    If I heard correctly, Google is joining China in the AI Manhattan Project. Could be a disaster for the US.

  2. Que paso Jeffe ?

    What happened to Ure daily Bitcoin bash ? No derision, underhanded comments, fear, uncertainty,doubt, outright B.S., ect? Must be getting soft or something..

    Everything in our future – EVERYTHING – is going to be Tokenized..Ure personal health info, taxes, financials,ect..

    Don’t Trust – Verify!

    Whats your store of value (s)?

    Keeping in mind EVERY argument against Bitcoin regards Electricity is argument against ALL other “current” forms of Money & Storing Value. How do U store the value of Ure labors ?

    U believe in the Full Faith and Credit of..Pelsoi, Shiff. Nadler, AOC, Talib, Schumer & Co. to stand behind their WORD? FMTT!

    Demons are running amuck in the halls of Con -gress, Alphabet Agencies and Pentagon.
    Who has the “intestinal fortitude” to stand up to these evil entities that cause so much harm to Humans..besides the Orange Gollum Greatness?

    Didn’t think so – much easier to just put your head down and go along to get along…its not like the NWO/Globalist are anything but evil – they live for mayhem/pain & negative emotions – why do think our fine drone operators always hit weddings and hospitals..yeah sure.. “it was an accident” or “there were tango’s hiding in there” or why central bankers want U to believe that Massive Amounts of MOAR Debt is going solve an already existing problem of too much Debt – Sovereign,Municipal,Corporate and Personal. These people are evil..

    • @eastcoast d…..

      YOU have hit far too many ‘nails on the head’…and knocked many ‘out of the park’…..ONLY gitmo military tribunals will ‘cleanse the soul ‘ of congress and the alphabet agancies…courts are rigged to favor the Globalist…GITMO is not….or else you and I and many others will have to wait for YESHUA to get the job done… the ‘scriptures mention’….GITMO being this countries FINAL chance to ‘listen and obey the ‘WORD OF GOD’…and restore HIS blessings to this once ‘faithful’ country……Semper Fi

    • Non-electric potable water and a means of providing food at a subsistence level represent real stores of value for the individual on a historical basis. Everything else are just distractions for the unwary.

    • BC does hold value.. as long as you believe it has value..
      Both the dollar and Bit Coin are basically the same.
      The way I see it is the only reason people value gold is from ancient sumerian texts where gold was coveted by the visitors that used it to shield their world from harmful radiation.
      Other than that you can not walk into Burger King with a bit coin and buy burgers you can’t walk in with gold and buy burgers but you can with the dollar bill. ( except here fifties and hundreds are not acceptable except at a bank )
      Even though all of them are

      As long as its viewed as a tangible currency it will be. The minute its questioned it wont be worth a thing

      • Bitcoin only holds value if someone else can and will take it as payment for something. No electricity means no value, because transactions can’t clear. Having an investment that only has value when 90% of the worldwide grid is up and running doesn’t really strike me as a hedge against calamity.
        The problem is, that could also be said for all bank, savings, and brokerage accounts. If no one can take your electronic stash as payment, then it doesn’t have any real value.
        Do you have paper copies of all the documents which are the basis for your real property ownership? Do you have paper title documents? Did you have a paper copy which shows your real estate taxes have been paid? Do you continue to get paper copies of your financial statements? Can you prove that you own any $&%$@#!@$ thing with the power out?
        Cryptos divert your attention away from problems with everything else. No electronic asset is safe in a real SHTF scenario. Potable water and subsistence agriculture remain as stores of value when all the electronics goes dead. Most people won’t live to pull the trigger more than a half-dozen times in a fire fight, so obsessing over weapons and ammo is a waste. Hiding yourself and your stuff is more valuable than firepower. Think it through. What I should I be doing now, what should I be doing later, and what are the trigger events? It may be later than you think, for you, up close and personal.

    • ED… back in the late seventies there was a game that was going around in our neck of the woods.. it was called the money game.. starting was one dollar and five dollars.. and ten dollar tickets.. it was nothing more than a pyramid game where once you reached the top you got a hundred dollars..
      it was going real good.. everyone was playing it..
      the Federal reserve and the Bitcoin are exactly that way.. neither is sustainable the minute that there is doubt on its value..we buy the hype..

      when it comes down to the moment is when it comes to light that none of it is backed by anything more than a promise..
      we have all basically bought the new clothes.. if your starving.. and you are the only one that has a cheeseburger or the makings of a cheeseburger..
      then you are the king..

  3. The optics of Russian helicopters landing in former US base in Syria? That’s funny. In the mid-80’s, the US helicopters were landing in former Soviets bases in Afganistan. I guess the two empires like to exchange quagmires now and then. Something like, ‘Here Joe, try my quagmire for a while. You will love it.’

  4. The Kitco gold graph at the bottom the page looks interesting. But the silver looks bad. And the $ chart looks even more unclear.

  5. Speaking of a .25 century ago. Did anyone see Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home?

    Gif goodness of a granite golf ball:


    Best known for its ALON® Transparent Ceramic (also known as Transparent Aluminum), Surmet is a pioneer in other advanced technologies including IR Optics Materials, Optical Coatings, Precision Optics Fabrication, Lightweight Transparent Armor design and solutions, and other related products.

    This apparatus could be #fake, but since the Light Crown made it through….. :)

    Medical Application of Function Generator – MAFG-03.01 device – use

    The MAFG-03.01, a CE certificated device, is indicated for the detection/killing of pathogenic micro-organisms from the human body, each of them having their own electromagnetic resonant frequency (electromagnetic signature). It uses a non-invasive method.
    Proper selection of the parameters needed to detect/kill certain pathogens is essential for efficacy of the scanning/therapy of the human body by using the MAFG-03.01 device.
    Detection/killing specific pathogens procedures can be automated using implemented software facilities.

    • Dam…Perry my wife would shoot me if I bought the microscope in the aiction lol lol but I definitely did consider putting a bid on it lol lol

    • This one’s definitely worth a look since I’m looking for an occasional use spectrum analyzer too. Thanks!

  6. “… are too damn stupid, cowardly, or both to stand up for “Daylight Government.” RINO’s and fools, the whole lot of ’em.””

    Parden me for saying: Are not US “the too damn stupid” who put same into office again and again? ;-(( And we keep breeding and importing more of them.

  7. You wrote..
    Trump calls for solidarity from GOP ahead of potentially damaging testimony. Whether he’ll get any is doubtful. DC is full of ass-covering cowards.

    Are they cowards for supporting him or not impeaching him. The latter would absolve them from cowardice if they would just see the forest at a 10,000 ft. altitude view and not on the ground through the trees. Each ground view tree is symbolic of another Trump lie, distraction and narcissistic comment.

    As I have stated before, CNN and others air 100% of Trumps pressers and speeches. As always, his comments defy carbon based life form logic and CNN is trying to show us who the real man is behind the FOX curtain. That’s how you report. They have the camera’s at the scene of the fire and inside the firestorm.

    Impeachment, while probable, is not the answer. The most efficient and apparent way to rid us of this disaster of a President is the 25th Amendment. It is obvious that the more Trump speaks, the less sense he makes. He is truly unfit for dog catcher, let alone President. His presser yesterday at the Cabinet meeting was a sh#* show. There really is no other way to say it. He is Mr. Obvious’s weak and sickly step brother, Mr. Clueless.

    I predict before the holidays, that past and present Cabinet officials will in solidarity gather together with the House and Senate leaders to lead this push for the 25th amendment. (It could be an economic boost for the holiday retail season) We already know how Tillerson, Mattis, Kelley, McMaster, Bolton, Cohn and many others with incredible resumes and intelligence feel about Trump…His present Cabinet is no exception. Did you know that when in a group setting, his entourage during his pressers have to be coached on non-verbal tells? That’s fact!

    Sometimes, it’s not so easy like yesterday…You could tell that his Cabinet members had to hold back their eye movements and facial expressions. That’s my specialty to this day. Non-verbal tells. In my ad agency days, we used to conduct hundreds of focus groups. There was a lot to talk about on the other side of the two way mirror when it came to facial expressions, tone of voice and eye movements when they spoke. In short, we could tell if someone was lying, telling us what we wanted to hear, disturbed, content or indifferent. The same with the others as well when someone else was speaking…

    Turn off Fox and turn on the stations that are allowing us to see the real Trump…and then look at the strained facial expressions of the people in the background. It will change your views on this idiot we have in the White House quickly.

    • Mark, you’re obviously a smart fellow, IMHO! However, if we were to replace DJT what would really change for us common folks? Why is HE soooo much worse than any previous “warmonger” that occupied the WH?

      I think that you must have some personal issues that need attending rather then bashing an elected president. Just take careof your own problems, if you have any?!

    • If they did manage to impeach Trump, it would be a good holiday selling season for guns. AR-15’s would fly off the shelves. Ammo hard to get. Like the Obama days.

      Mark: You forgot to praise your wonderfulness in this post.

    • Yeah yeah sure – 100% ..and the streets of SF arent covered in fecal matter.

      Clueless Libs:

      Mayor Buttplug
      Joey Bidet
      Elizabeth Fugazi
      Palsi Pelosi
      Toothy McBigtits..

      Try turning off the volume of the nat news broadcast- just once – and just watch the facial expressions. It does not take long to realize the ENTIRE broadcast is pure B.S. – it is clear they are terrible actors trying to drive your emotions with made up lies..all of it -LIES.

      now who b the father of argue sans reason, without logos is SATANIC. -imho.

    • Impeachment requires a charge that’s a “high crime or misdemeanor”. I fail to see any yet, so all we have is a gossip group calling itself an “impeachment inquiry”. Secret from the right too, since we might discover what they’re actually saying to be rather meaningless.

      The 25th amendment is also nonsense in the current context. The nation is doing far better than it ever could have under the other candidate from 2016. We’ve avoided any serious conflict worldwide, and on balance, our president is doing a much better job than most previously from either party. “Body language” is not the law of the land and interpreting it is rather like reading tea leaves. My body language can’t be read by most people if I even have any, and I’ve had a lifetime of conversations regarding that. I rely on the written and spoken word and it’s served me well. I suggest we do the same, and consider the positive trends of the last three years. It will take a true statesman as an opposition candidate for me to even consider changing my vote for next year. As of yet, there are no contenders.

      I’d suggest that instead of more of the same old muckraking regarding our president, that Congress sit down and do the job that they’re paid(by taxpayers, not lobbyists) to do.

      • You all act like I am the only one “muckraking” Trump. The anonymous source that wrote the op-Ed in the NY Tines that Trump called treasonous, probably because so much it was true and the “treason” part is the fact that someone ratted on him…he or she is writing a book… all proceeds going to charity. You won’t hear that on Fox.

        I have a sneaking suspicion that it’s KellyAnne Conway. Her husband has kind of set the table for her. The only other people it could be is Tillerson or Mattis. Did Mattis tip his hand by dissing the President last weekend? More to come?

        As far as the economy, we were in an upward trajectory during the Obama years and it just hasn’t cooled yet. Thank the Fed, not either Presidents. The economy actually grew more robustly when Obama was President…again not due to anything he actually did….but there is zero Trump has done to make anything better…yet the economy rolls on…just like from 2009-2016.

      • You gotta back up a sec Mark and ask yourself:

        Who is it that orchestrates an “Anonymous” for the lefty-rag fish wrapper yet won’t speak openly in public?

        If they can bash Trump, quality of sources be damned – and that’s as crooked as you get.

        Secret hearings are not “hearings” – they are a national disgrace and should be fully televised non-stop.

        The fact they are not screams Coup!

    • @ Markx

      ALL those that you are proud to listen to ARE the EVIL that has controlled this country for years…and YET you want us to believe YOU and THEM…as opposed to the ‘chosen one’….that YOU HATE….the Constitution is your remedy….as in the 25th…..MY remedy will be in the SAME Constitution…but it WILL be the 2 nd………as for the oath I swore to in 1963 enemies foreign or domestic……will be dispatched………may the Lord grant you the wisdom to chose the ‘right’ side…….Semper Fi

    • EGOTISM-From his Cradle to his grave a man never does a single thing with has any first and foremost object save one —to secure Peace of Mind, Spiritual comfort, for himself.
      Mark Twain.
      What is Man?
      Who is Mark Mark is a man who is accepted as genuine and believed often, but falsely imagined.
      Mark is yeah supposititious ,put in the place of or made to represent ,in order to deceive or defraud.

  8. George,

    Two days ago, dreamed vividly of being on an “ice breaking ferry” that was leaving a metropolitan water front, crossing direction into a narrow channel full of boat traffic. Suddenly, in the middle of the channel several submarines surfaced rapidly moving in the direction we were crossing, at nearly a right angle to them. There was one really large one in the middle, closest to the ferry, and at least two smaller ones on either side and behind the large one.

    The ferry barely crossed the front of the large submarine as we crossed its path. I remember someone saying, “that’s pretty dangerous, this ferry is an ice breaker it would have ripped that thing wide open”.

    • Amazing! I dreamt I was at DJT’s funeral, and I had a conversation with his dad. Jeff Bezos was attending and I suggested to him to tone it down, reminding him of the consequences his business ideas have for COLoud,

  9. @ George

    BINGO…..So we shall see. For now, no more coffee is needed. A 100- point Dow rise going into the close argues much higher, while a…………………………………………………………………….. 100 point Dow loss could be pointing much lower.

      • as a wise man once said…”place your bets”…BLACK or RED….and he spins the wheel ….as the ‘pill’ lands on GREEN….next

      • And iffen you’d traded one of them VIXEN you would’nt need any other business model ;-)).

        Just kidding, because I’m in the mood!!

      • Covered my 10 day old ETF short.
        Two widely followed letters calling for dow 2800
        and sp 3100.

        Several others calling for 3100.

  10. Sir,

    The electronic vote counters were absent from the polling station yesterday. Just a pencil, paper, and ballot box – revolutionary!

    The piece-de-resistance from national broadcaster coverage was when the moderator expressed a sentiment that climate change is a foregone conclusion and gospel to any party worthy of office. The assembled pundit bobbleheads nodded in unison with the exception of one young woman who proceeded to contradict such a conclusion. The queen of spades moderator interjected and cut her off mid-sentence, switching cameras to her queen bee self. Moments later no less than a life-like hologram materialized on stage with subtitles announcing the election of The Honourable J. Trudeau in his Montreal riding. It was a divine moment. The soma is working.

    By the way, now that there are conservative party leaders in both the UK and Canada who hold US citizenship, perhaps it is time to consider a communion of worlds Anglo and Amero that could be earth-shakingly on par with Constantine bringing Christianity to the Roman Empire. Certainly this may offer a viable option should the beloved incumbent bogey out in a bunker.

    And lest I forget, the apparent punishment from my cable company for not buying the Sunday football package is to have a single game piped in from a FOX affiliate in New York with commentary in Spanish!

    Hasta la Vista, Baby !!!!

  11. Looked at clouds from both sides now! But would it be nice if liberals could look at themselves through conservative eyes?

  12. I love my ANRITSU M2721A spectrum analyzer. Solid state, color LCD screen, and MUCH lighter than the H-P or Tektronix ‘arm stretcher’ anchors I used to use professionally. Found mine cheap on eBay. Happy hunting!

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