Joe – With a Side of Toast
“When the printing Stops, the Rally Stops.”
After being down 700, Dow futures were only down 432 at “click-time” today.
Arguably, I’ve been writing about politics for more than 50-years now. And, if there’s one tried-and-true lesson from all those elections – and the corporate politics observed from the comfort of my own mahogany foxhole after the news-chasing days – it’s that every reporter needs to keep Machiavelli on the speed-dial.
The short sequence: Dominoes have lined-up this morning. And while we no longer think our months-back forecast of 3,000 on the S&P by year-end will come in, we are, nevertheless, intrigued by the present “moving of pieces on the board.
Name Those Game Pieces
The naming of the set pieces is easy.
- Easiest to pawn-off on the public by fear-peddlers is the new strain of CV-19 in the UK. It may continue whittling down the global population in slow-motion. Unlike the Wuhan outbreak, the response is much faster this time as More Countries Impose U.K. Travel Restrictions Amid Concern Over Virus Mutation.
- We are astounded by the latest Trump administration disease policy failure, however: European countries and Canada ban travel from U.K. amid highly infectious COVID-19 strain…but NOT the US. How do you spell WTF? [The Founders separated Church and State.
We guess separating Medicine and State never occurred to them…]
- The next piece is the (possibly) Joe-limiting stimulus package that might make it. The problem in this one? It includes provisions to stop the Fed from continuing to “puff up markets” with free money from the CARES Act. The Hill has a pretty good summary of this in “Toomey praises end of Federal Reserve lending programs, will support relief deal.”
As you will see in a moment, and as we have been telling our Peoplenomics.com subscribers, the market has been waiting for an “excuse to decline. The question is “How far?”
How Far Down?
Elliott wave theory offers an idea; A market decline from a Wave iii high (making the decline a wave iv) cannot penetrate the range of the Wave i peak. So, using this – and applying it to our Aggregate Markets view of financial reality, we come to this view:
We can now see the problem faced by Team Biden: If the decline takes out the “Joe Line” between now and year end, then the path is open to the full-on beginning of a Second Depression almost immediately.
A Machiavellian View
With the caveat that “this is not financial advice” – let’s look at this and put it into our larger historical replay context.
When we line up the Obama era market bottom (2009_) with the markets low (1920) we come up with a comparison that looks like this:
Seen in this light – and lining up the “final hesitancy” of the 1929 blow-off with the present outlook – we might see a short, sharp pullback into Christmas – perhaps even lasting until New Years.
However, after that, one of two things will happen:
- If the “Joe Line” holds, then the “game” will be on for a modest Elliott wave (v) into late winter. Maybe Spring. We will work on this timing as we move along but no, that’s not going to be on the free side. (Ure’s gotta have some value going-forward, right?) We’ve been kicking this around for a month and a half on the subscriber side. Playing the game of Date Darts…
- If we get this final up move? In Wave V’s natural resources and gold do well. We could see Gold (and inflation-aware cryptos) making headway. Also, around the bottom of Wave IV’s is an interesting time to buy resources. Can’t help but mention you can almost see the macro wave function by reading some short-term moves like “Iraq devalues currency by a fifth as oil-price collapse hits” on the one hand. But, then balance of that against “NNPC: Nigeria’s Reserves Will Dry up in 30 Years Without New Oil Finds.” As my buddy Oilman2 constantly reminds: “Depletion Never Sleeps.” So that’ll be an interesting show to watch.
- The Other Outcome is? If the Joe Line is broken convincingly – this Depression could arrive before Fall 2021 (which would be the nicer scenario). In which case, Joe might be “tested-out” by the Kamunists on some failure to grok at the mock-critical (*theatrical) moment.
- Which gets us to the most pertinent question: Is Janet Yellen smarter than Venezuela? Venezuela had some good financial people at one time, too. But not good enough to face-down rabid free-lunching socialists. Think we’re going down any different road?
The “modern revolutionary’s Path to the Palace” is all digital. The Cretins of Social have out-swindled the political animals. Toll Roads Up Babel.
All things in time, but indeed there’s much to be concerned about.
UDS – Read Hans Brinker
Useless Daily Statistic? Ure call as the CFNAI – Chicago Fed National Activity Index – is just out
“Led by slower growth in employment- and production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to +0.27 in November from +1.01 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in November, but all four categories decreased from October. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to +0.56 in November from +0.85 in October.”
Remember the story about the “little Dutch boy and the dike?” OK, so the Hans Brinker reference was maybe a little much this early. Have some egg nog. Get over it. The book popularized the story of the little Dutch boy who plugs a dike with his finger.
In today’s world, the word dike is illegal, isn’t it? More nog?
Liberal to Left publications are still selling Open Borders in their vaccine coverage.
Take (Biden and before that Clinton endorsing) USA Today rolling with this: As COVID-19 vaccine rolls out, undocumented immigrants fear deportation after seeking dose.
Notice how stooges of the Left always use “undocumented immigrants” instead of “illegal aliens.” The sales job (and con) never stops.
I wish I had snagged the screen this morning when the Drudge Report ran the big headlines about Black and Latino communities would be getting vaccine in preference to whites.
Their headline came down quickly, but the story is dutifully reported in the NY Post under Stop the ‘public health’ drive to racialize vaccine distribution. And the key quote:
“On Sunday, the federal Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, or ACIP, recommended that seniors aged 65 to 74 be moved toward the back of the line for the COVID-19 vaccine.
The reason, says ACIP, is that “racial and ethnic minority groups are underrepresented” in this age group. Put another way: Seniors are too white.”
This is damn good straight reporting. We also have to compliment the Post for not going along with the “woke” bullshit uttered by children.
The Post story didn’t capitalize black – or white. We presume “woke” people are also capitalizing Red and Blue…Green, too. You see? THAT’s how effing crazy and “foxtrot uniform’ed” things have gotten.
As we remind readers often: When “cap wars” and terms like “racial equality” are used, they reveal racist intent. Bias peddling!
What doesn’t “EQUALITY” cover as a stand-alone, unmodified word? Marketing and mind f*cks, buddy… All part of the “Woke Joke” the gullible are mired in – a whole book-length discussion of how by definition half of people are below average.
But don’t get me started… Point is, between Michael Goodwin and John Crudele, the NY Post is nowadays one of America’s last newspapers. You’d be hard-pressed to find better. Remember who broke the Hunter laptop story?
One more point about “dumbing down Gotham?” From Fox New York Times’ ‘Caliphate’ debacle should teach Americans ‘not to trust’ once-proud paper, critics say. Badda-bing!
Instead of an excuse, CNN calls this ” Analysis: Why Georgia’s Senate runoffs are too close to call. The simple answer? The ones with the most money win. We’re betting Trump has pissed off enough people that Buyed’em forces will win.
Ahead of evictions and foreclosures: Strong Housing Market Fundamentals to Remain a Constant in 2021, According to First American Potential Home Sales Model.
Despite “stimulus” Congress is still screwing rental owners: $900 billion relief package extends moratorium on evictions, weekly unemployment benefits. You bet – let’s beat up those middle-class people who took a shot and actually invested in America. Where’s the ethics in screwing them? Oh…silly me…
Noisy Neighbors? Look for an update from long-time reader/contributor Hank out on the Big Island in our Comments section when he c hecks in. Because Kilauea volcano erupts on Hawaii’s Big Island. Just up the street from him… Pix Hank?
“The checks in the mail”? Russia Denies Role in U.S. Cyber Attacks. Or, was it China undercover? Faced with massive suspected Russian cyber-attack on the U.S. government, Trump blames China.
What lasts longer than the last 2-minutes of an American football game? Brexit: Trade deal talks continue as negotiators fail to reach agreement.
Bowl Full Of Jelly Dept.
Super French Toast is on the agenda this morning: That’s where you take a loaf of fresh bread, sliced about 3/4-inch thick and dredge it until soaked in “magic breakfast juice.”
To ways to approach this. This first:
- Three large eggs
- 2 – 4 shots of Bailey’s
- 1/4 cups heavy cream
Soak bread. Just before transferring to pan, dust heavily with nutmeg.
- Three large eggs
- 2-4 shots of Cap’t’s spiced rum (don’t forget the coffee cup, too!)
- 1/4 cut of something from a moo.
Same deal: Load up with nutmeg, slowly brown. Drown in half of Canada’s national product. Lay down for nap.
Get up and remember to write a column tomorrow.
Write when you get rich,