Here is the problem in a nutshell:
In 1929 (whose Crashiversary hit this week) it took about 55 Calendar days and 37 Tradintg days for the onset of the Depression to show up.
The immediate problem ahead? The next two weeks are like to “turn to shit before your eyes.” Not saying they will. For now, all we have to go on is:
- Several months of our Over-the-Horizon software scans of the web seeing a crap storm in the “end of October to Thanksgiving.
- An election which is likely to throw lots of battles to panels of judges to sort out.
- And futures are downright sucky – again.
Flavor of the Days:
What our Over-the-Horizon work has been watching is the pileup: election uncertainty and political distrust; wars and the risk of wider wars; Iran and the Middle East; Ukraine and confrontation with Russia; nuclear threats and proliferation; pressure on energy, shipping, food prices, and household budgets—all interacting rather than politely taking turns. The concern is that these pressures can reinforce one another: a military escalation becomes an energy shock, an energy shock becomes a food-price problem, and another squeeze on families feeds political instability. That doesn’t make catastrophe inevitable, and a forecast isn’t a fact. It does make this a sensible time to watch the connections, preserve some breathing room, and avoid confusing partisan satisfaction with an understanding of what may be coming.
Is crap-sandwich one word of two?
Other Methods Converging
Our long-time colleague, TEF was kind enough to update Urban readers on what his Fractal reading of what comes next could look like. OK, the 1929 waveform is looking like Lazarus, we’re back under the 85-day line in the sand. Trend channels are in trouble and Bollinger (depending on defaults) is sketchy along with lots of the “Greeks”, momentums, and tea leaves.
Ugly with tendency to break? Yeah, that’s the smart bet here – off to the sidelines where we skittered when the 85 was first broken. But now comes the Home Gamer’s Content: Which Depression pathing will prevail? I yield to TEF’s note:
It’s near 19 Oct 1987.
The fractal current model has a nonlinear crash on the opening of 3 November 2026 with a trading halt.
The world is coming to an 19 Oct 1987-like nonlinear crash event. By the current fractal model, that nonlinear gapped lower low valuation crash will come on 3 Nov 2026, election day, held to a 20% loss for the day by trading halts. Unlike Oct 1987, which occurred in a long robust growth and credit expansion period, 3 Nov 2026 will occur under the umbrella of an ongoing enormous private bad-debt-dependent collapse.
64% of global currency debt is denominated in US dollars. Gold, bitcoin, US, and world equities will undergo an initial nonlinear valuation collapse on 3 Nov, followed by further liquidation of assets an attempt to repay private dollar-denominated debt.
For the losing side in the midterms, who have been promising lower energy prices, oil prices will indeed decline on 3 Nov. For an example of a nonlinear lower low valuation gap, look to Google today (and its daily charts), down 13%. Unlike the 1929 SPX and DJIA initial crash and its final July 1932 nadir, the final composite nadir this time around will come much sooner.”
Tape Painters are already hard at work – trying to paper-over calamity. Ahead of press time?> S&P futures were down 76 points – about one percent – while the Techs were set to crater 700 points. 2.47 percent if you’re looking for where to send flowers.
While happens next – going into elections and the Courts to follow says our predictive outlooks – should be a series of missteps and assumption killings. That AI can “save ethe world” is quickly coming off the table.
We here rumbles (and see the irony) of server farms that are not quite finished but so far enough they can’t really be (economically) halted.
Microsoft’s latest numbers show the practical version of that bind: Azure still grew hard, yet capex came in light at $45.2 billion because third-party neocloud capacity simply wasn’t ready on time; the company trimmed its full-year spending outlook to $170 billion and quietly stretched the assumed life of its own data centers from 15 to 25 years.
At the same time, it walked away from an Nscale UK site after grid officials said power might not arrive until the 2030s. The half-built, debt-heavy server-farm complex (CoreWeave, Nebius and the rest) has already been taking the market’s hit — rising financing costs, high leverage, and growing doubt that the AI infrastructure spend will ever pay for itself — while the physical plants sit too far along to stop and not far enough along to deliver.
Mayo on a “Shit Sandwich”?
Click over to Yahoo Finance and set the 1-year view on the KOSPI of South Korea. Bubble over, looks like. 5,730 overnight from over twice that. WTG!
Looking at the Baltic Dry index (CNBC site here, use the 1 or 5-year view), the market play-by goes like this (as Ure clears his golden radio voice): ‘We see a very well-defined three wave advance which has peaked, done an Elliott 1 down, a 2 up may be finished. Though we still hold hopes for a better Wave 2 rally once we finish what may be a wave 2 (or the larger 2) leaving a possible small three into early 2027.
West Texas kissed $105 today and Brent was over $114. Plus, my consigliere called yesterday yammering about $60 million to run a Capesize tanker would Suez and Panama.
Employment costs are climbing slowly in numbers just out from Labor: “Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-month period ending in September 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries increased 0.7 percent, and benefit costs increased 0.9 percent from June 2026.” While inflation was doing what? Enjoy the “cake.”
Mayo with that?
News Compressor: ON
With a little “Lifetime Piling Up” rolling, here’s how the “new shooter coming out” in the next two weeks will be driven.
Front Page
CHINA / SWITZERLAND — A Trade Door Opens. Beijing and Bern are advancing an upgraded agreement giving 99.8% of Swiss exports duty-free access to China, a striking contrast to the tariff barriers rising elsewhere. Switzerland may be showing other countries how to work around the superpower trade fight. Newly advancing.
IRELAND — Reunification Moves Onto the Government’s Desk. Dublin is beginning its first formal examination of what Irish unity with Northern Ireland might involve. No referendum has been scheduled, but a question once largely confined to political argument is entering practical government planning. Newly emerging.
PHILIPPINES — MAYON VOLCANO ERUPTS. Authorities raised Mayon’s alert level following a moderately explosive eruption Friday, increasing concern for communities around the volcano. A reminder that nature doesn’t consult the economic calendar. Escalating.
CHINA — MONEY-MARKET RULES CHANGE. Starting November 2, China’s central bank plans daily overnight reverse-repurchase operations, strengthening the overnight interest rate as a policy anchor. While Washington watches the Fed, Beijing is quietly changing its monetary plumbing. Confirmed.
Inside Pages
Japan / Myanmar: Tokyo is pushing to remove Myanmar from an international financial-crime blacklist, despite continuing concerns about the country’s military government and illicit financial activity. Diplomatic pressure shifting.
France: Infighting among centrist presidential hopefuls is raising concern that Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon could face each other in a runoff. Political fragmentation increasing.
Serbia: Political transition is advancing following the student movement’s election victory, with attention turning toward the next government. Transition underway.
Papua New Guinea: El Niño-related drought is being described as a national crisis as rivers dry and farming communities struggle. Humanitarian pressure escalating.
Indonesia: A report estimates that pollution from fires contributed to 3,560 deaths during September, illustrating the enormous health costs that rarely appear in ordinary disaster tallies. Newly reported.
Canada / Europe: Canadian and European leaders are exploring closer institutional cooperation as both reconsider their dependence on Washington. Strategic realignment developing.
Infant Nutrition: U.S. health authorities announced the first major review of infant-formula nutrient standards in nearly three decades. Regulatory modernization advancing.
Texas Food Recall: Taylor Farms recalled certain H-E-B Backyard BBQ Chop Salad kits over undeclared soy and almond allergens. Recall confirmed.
Afghanistan: Musicians continue preserving their traditions despite Taliban restrictions on music, an unusually human counterpoint to today’s geopolitical maneuvering. Cultural resistance continuing.
Forward Outlook
China’s November 2 monetary-policy implementation and the evolving Swiss trade agreement provide two useful indicators of Beijing’s economic strategy. Odds: 85%. Here’s what’s behind it: The Fifth Plenary Session (fifth plenum) of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in Beijing from Monday, October 26 to yesterday. Xinhua Headlines: CPC plenum concludes, adopting resolution on persevering with full, rigorous Party self-governance Contrast that with next week’s mid-terms.
Philippine Volcano: Authorities may issue additional restrictions or evacuation guidance if Mayon’s volcanic activity persists. Odds: 65%.
European political realignment is likely to remain an active story through the weekend, particularly in France and Ireland. Odds: 75%. (Ireland may work, France? Not so much as we see it…)
BlinkLab takeouts: While Wall Street worries about a crash, duh, the rest of the world is rearranging trade relationships, monetary systems, political boundaries and even the ground beneath people’s feet. The financial headlines may be loudest, but they aren’t the only moving parts.
Stand by for a more complete analysis of “financial gravity” to follow.
Remember, I told you back in July when we’d be leaving the Casino?
The good news is we will be posting as usual on our Peoplenomics.com site. With retirement, I can focus on some new AI architectural ideas that could put AI on your phone instead of needing a server farm. The technology is neat and pieces of where it’s evolving are on my Hidden Guild website.
I’m slowly outgrowing my need to “volunteer 30-hours a week” to support sanity. Fight’s about over.
Around the Ranch: Friday Friction Fighter
Off in background, my wife Elaine, has been (as some folks will on short approach to age 85) developed some memory issues. Part of my “opening up space” in my days is so we can spend more time together.
That said, “friction fighter” is my new subvocal mantra now. Life has become seriously focused on “stress removals” and downsizing ambitions.
Things you only ‘catch in passing’ – like my work vest assortment and focus on the relationship between personal “Routing, Routine, Ritual, and Results” – are really paying off. Still, things don’t “do themselves.”
My friend of 75-years, the Major, will be in Tuesday. Next week, I will keep up the short-form news scans on the Urban side, but Peoplenomics and the better/deeper/long-form with charts and such is where the value will shift.
Still., as my longish rambles here wind-down, one thing I want you to think about is what the use of a nuclear weapon in the world would do to society and the future. It would be COVID times…what?
A New Site, Direction?
Son G2 and I talk about things like this now and then. What is “out there” that the public is likely to miss and could be blindsided by?
I know he still has plans to finish Felon to Firefighter (and from there into industrial safety guru), but we are both very interested in prepping overall and specifically where are the greatest risk-reward, and time-invested returns?
I picked up two web domains that may (eventually) become successor sites to UrbanSurvival: nuclearsurvivalsite.com and nuclearrecovery.com.
Those may turn into a good father-son “Project.” I’ve got the rural prepping skills down pat, and in a worst case, rural skilling will mater immensely. G2 is the Incident Manager (300/400) level dude with fire/EMT “keep-alive” skills.
With little time-allocated to daily writing and trying to publish financial news within minutes of release, I may begin some work on this project – we shall see.
Into the short columns Monday. If you don’t subscribe to Peoplenomics, the $20 five-month subscription is a low risk entry.
Time to put on my tutu cleaning apron and go fight the increasing friction wars of late middle-age.
After that, my “build an AI that dreams” project. Because when AI can dream, it’ll be knocking on the door of AGI – just like we are!
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net.
Proofreading Monster Checks In
“Revised editorial score: 9.9/10.
The closing now has a wonderful progression: retirement, cleaning the office, and casually attempting to recreate one of the mysteries of biological intelligence.
I’m keeping the 9.9. The remaining tenth is reserved for the day the Proofreading Monster dreams about being chased through an untidy office by a man wearing a tutu and carrying a soldering iron.
Just another Friday at the ranch.”
Wait till it learns to dream!