User Survey Note:  If you read comments in response to articles, you will notice a change this morning:  After an article is posted, the comments regarding that articles are posted in the order received.  Until about 6:10 AM today, it has been most recent first.  Essentially, it’s oldest first.

I am asking everyone who enjoys the Comment Section (where we get a lot of very good/useful information kicked around), to either send an email to george@ure.net OR post a comment as to which way is preferred.  Makes no difference to me.  Except that currently on the web, there’s a slight preference toward most recently received first.  But, that may be simply because in mentally deranged times, people like to spout off and feel like they’re being heard.

I assure you that I have not threatened to cut off aide to Ukraine regardless of outcome.  If there’s “interference in our voting process here” I simply block IP addresses.  Being an enlightened site, even democrats and people who don’t know how their plumbing works are encouraged to vote.  We are, after all, just in this to toss around money-making ideas.  Last time we checked Everything is a Business Model, and the greatest social equalizer  ever.

The Fed: Making Up Money (MUM)

Two things to keep an eye on today as the markets were set (earlier) to open around flat.

First is the NY Fed Market-Maker’s Dashboard over here.  I don’t remember what time they put out the daily numbers, but there’s a lot of discussion around the net as to how the Fed tossing our money faster than candy on Halloween, that it may have something to do with the market hitting sequential new highs this week.

For example, the Wall St. Journal Thursday offered this hint into cause and effect: “New York Fed Adds $115.14 Billion in Short-Term Liquidity to Markets .”  As a  sometimes pattern day-trader, seems there are been an unusual number of sessions where a real market run will happen from about one hour into a trading day, with investors regaining some sense of reality in the closing 15-minutes, or thereabouts. Is this an effect of loose money for a day?

Second point is the H.6 Money Stocks report.  The long window view of money supply, Table 1 here, shows 90-day M1 going up 7.6 percent annualized while M2 was going up at 7.0 Annualized.

In the Thursday data releases, after the close, however, the picture has changed in Table 2 (ending October 28).  M1 (90-day) was annualizing out at 7.0 while the M2 (90) annualized at 8.0 percent.

Concurrent with this, US Treasuries were growing some goanies, too.  The  MarketWatch story “10-year, 30-year Treasury yield hits three-month high as trade optimism powers bond selloff” offers some good insight.  Not to be missed as the Fed’s “talking heads” who are hinting that they and  not seeing a case for any additional rate reductions.

Since everything in economics is linked, we expect the Fed will be slowly trying to take the crack way from the Street, but that’s a dicey game because the case for continued “growth” in the economics is more an accountancy issue than anything.  If you make up lots more money to chase the same goods and services, of course, prices will be higher.

But, Global Deflation is another major fear to deal with.  And there are some hints that Global Deflation isn’t done – at least yet .   Forbes has a pretty good article this week – worth your time to scan – because it lays out some of the background linkages, if you hold your screen just so…  “These 3 REITs Could Plunge In 2020” lays out some critical drivers to juggle into your calculations.

If you’re new to UrbanSurvival (we’ve only been here since 1997) you may not know that REITs are  Real Estate Investment Trusts.  They are bog pools of capitol that invest in major shopping malls, tall buildings (with a single bound), and some industrial kinds of properties.  The idea is that inflation and demand will work their magic in time, the property values will go up, and the gains will be large enough to distribute healthy returns to investors.

But, when Fed rate dancing doesn’t keep 10-year borrowing costs in check, then the cost of the REIT’s money goes up, the amount leftover for distribution goes down. It wasn’t always this way.  REITs didn’t used to be so heavily “financially engineered.”  When you optimize one direction, though, there can be a “bite-you-on-the-ass” in the other.

Markets Treading Water

After some nice (for the bulls, anyway) gains this week, the market looks to open about flat today.

The biggest (or most personally useful)  financial story of the week (out here in the real world) is that Intuit has released this year’s TurboTax product: TurboTax Home & Business + State 2019 Tax Software [Amazon Exclusive] [Link defaults to Mac Download, so use the tabs to select PC download or Disc as needed].

Good news is the download is almost instant, but we always get the disc.  Not much of a collectible, but we have about 15-years worth of past editions.  Only downside to this is the disc may not get here (even as a  Prime Amazite) until December 9th.  Still, in plenty of time to dial up, or down, on the Q4 2019 quarterly stick-up.

This is what?  Stuff that really matters, and is actionable.  Shall we venture deeper into the Land of Delusion, now?

The (Mostly Useless) News Flow

Let’s roll with some of the useful things to know, first:

If you’re thinking about buying a small business, this ought to be encouraging, I’d think: Business Brokers Say Fear of a Recession is Driving Down Small Business Valuations.

You know national marijuana reform is getting closer when Former NBA commissioner David Stern says league should reconsider marijuana ban.

Environmentally sounder oil drilling? The Permian paradox: Texas shale players go green to drill more.

And remember the other day when I mentioned how Iran was planning to bust all the rules in the nuclear deal?  And how Tel Aviv wouldn’t sit idly by?  Well, here comes Iran claims it downed ‘unknown’ drone over Persian Gulf, Pentagon says all US devices accounted for.  If we had to make a wild guess as to whose it was….

Onto the Useless Stuff

Lefty’s and coup leaders are having a field day with a new Trump-slam book: Book by “Anonymous” is said to paint “chilling” portrait of Trump.

The dems will have issues keeping their stories straight: Exclusive: Contradictions in key Trump impeachment witness’s testimony about contact with Dem staffer.  We look forward to Adam Schiff being called as a witness for Trump in the Senate Trial.  I’ll get extra popcorn for that…

And gee, given Joe Biden bragged about holding a billion worth of aid hostage until a prosecutor going after Hunter Biden was fired, Tim Scott doesn’t believe Trump committed an “impeachable offense”.  NSS.

Friday Woo-Woo

Had the strangest dream last night, which, for a serious  oneironaut is going a fair piece.

I was in an elevator in a building which was under constructiuon.  The elevator was going up — and down – and the door would open (dangerously) between floors and would begin moving again.

The building under construction wasn’t too tall.  Perhaps 8-12 stores.  The rehab underway had taken the front half of the building off, but the back half and offices served by the elevator, were still intact.

This “still in use” portion backed up (and into) a hillside.  But, it was a vibrant downtown area.

There was only one person in the elevator when we got to the top (besides me).  A non-descript woman.  The elevator was obviously unstable, so I elected to exit the open door first.  Then, with the concrete cracking around my feet, I held the elevator column while the woman safely exited.

The shaking of the elevator calmed down, and the concrete holding the top it is hasn’t yet broken completely.  Seriously cracked, though, and I made a note to be sure and tell someone.

With that, I was off to a meeting with Elaine on the upper floor of a 20-30 story building down the street.

As we were in that building, there was somne serious swaying.  The b uilding we were in swayed 5-10 degrees and Elaine was looking afraid.

“Don’t worry, dear.  That was just the elevator column in the building up the street collapsing.” I explained.  I had a short winge of guilt for not mentioning the elevator instability to someone before coming to the meeting, but even in dream Realms,  time is always of the essence.

I didn’t get around to looking up “collapse” or “elevator” until about 7 AM Central time.

The closest match was a story from 3-weeks ago that I don’t consciously remember reading: Brazil building collapse: Seven-story block crashes down in Fortaleza.  The size of the building was right.

But there was also an event last month, again not reported and no conscious recall of it, in New Orleans at the new Hard Rock Hotel site.   And this one involved a key player:  The elevator.

Then there’s the elevator construction mishap reported in the  Khmer Times where 3 workers were killed (falling 16-stories will do that) in another construction/elevator accident.

Then there was the collapse of a building, injuring 9 people in South Africa.

All of which leaves me wondering about the mechanics of all this:  Construction accident clusters aren’t my “regular beat” – and I don’t remember seeing any of them before a scan of headlines this morning.

But is it  possible that one, or more, of the headlines had registered with my subconscious brain in the past few weeks, and with nothing else pressing to “dream process” it just came welling up?

Or is there something still ahead?  Some building/elevator mishap yet to make news…in which case the dream might have precognitive aspects.

Ah…we shall see.  But the dream world continue to offer as much entertainment and adventure as over here in the waking state.

Most interestingly, though, when you get to be a highly effective “dream rememberer” there’s no difference between the “recall of a dream” and the “recall of a  lived in waking state event”

And that poses both remarkable questions for science as well as potentially unsettling answers about the nature of consciousness itself.

Dream well this weekend and report back.

Oh!  Don’t miss the Mercury transit this weekend on the home telescope…

Write when you get rich, too…

george@ure.net

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