America’s “Warshed Up” – Retail Sales – Fractals Hint “Sim” – Drought About

Let’s begin with the cheap material first (to warm up the audience a bit).

From the headline in the WaPo: Warsh confirmed as Fed chair as Trump allies warn on rate cuts, we draw the conclusion that America is now “Warshed up.”

America’s Floundering Future

But if’n you were to ask reader Ray about it, he might point to the X-post here which was about how your government’s been lying about all kinds of crap, especially  related to the Wuhan origins story.  This’ll take a sec, so slow down and think about it:

“Hawley read the two key conclusions from that report into the record. Nothing researched at the Wuhan lab could plausibly be a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2. No evidence of any research-related incident involving Wuhan employees. Then he asked Erdmann directly: are those statements true?

“No. I don’t believe that’s true.”

Three violations, on the record. They defied the law. They withheld thousands of pages they knew were covered by it. And the conclusions they did release are false.

Hawley closed with this: if elected and unelected officials can blatantly violate the statutes of this country and lie to the American people, we don’t have a democracy anymore.”

Ergo: Ure’s starkly obvious about being “Warshed up” now.  Bio pic here: What to know about Kevin Warsh, the newly confirmed Fed Chair (TLT:NASDAQ) | Seeking Alpha

Then It Gets Worse

How?  Oh, you mean about the CIA apparently/allegedly conducting an illegal domestic operation as described here?  All just to continue keeping the JFK cover-up under cover?

Cue that newsroom skeptic, slightly news-juice slurred: “LGMA.” (Lone gunman, my ass.)

The Assassination of…Alcohol

Let’s step back in time, a minute to put this in context:  A few billion years ago – early 1970s, the rock n’ roll radio station I was newsing at (KOL, AM-FM, Seattle) did a weekly comedy shtick “That Was The Week That Was.”  It was a compilation (and early training ground) for cynical citizens and news denizens alike.

There was one episode in particular, which somehow linked a sitting Seattle mayor with the restoration of a building in a historical district which old-timers knew was once a bordello.  Sitting Hizzoner was 16-shades of pissed.  So, the station manager – 24 karat fellow by the name of Dick Curtis said (as we headed for City Hall) “We need a shot of liquid courage.”  A 5-minute in-and-out at Andy’s Diner on Fourth South followed.

Needless to say, we patched things up at City Hall. I want to recall Hizzoner got a get-even shot on the air in the following week’s TWTWTW.  Lawsuit threats came off the table and a year-or-so later, I was back on Hizzoner’s Christmas party list.

I know.  “OK, so WTF yammering Old Man?”

Just that when a story with lots of “narrative power” comes along (Look! Here’s one! Kash Patel Tries to Flip the Script on His Alleged Drinking Problem and It Blows Up in His Face — Then a 90-Second Video Drops and Turns the Hearing Into a Full-Blown Disaster“)  I remember that in-and-out at Andy’s Diner before a high-stakes meeting.

You’ll have to pardon the old newsroom skeptic in me, but the narrative around Patel has — to these old eyes — taken on the familiar look of a Washington character-assassination package: first the anonymous-sourced “concern” story, then the hearing-room ambush, then the clip engineered for virality, then the moralizing headlines, then the friendly amplification loops, then the “questions are being raised” chorus, then the opposition-party fundraising copy, then the late-night jokes, then the Beltway whisper circuit, then the obligatory “fitness to serve” frame, and finally the convenient public-memory rewrite where an allegation, a denial, a lawsuit, and a 90-second booze-adjacent video all get compressed into one sticky little label.

Patel has denied the drinking allegations and says he is suing The Atlantic; Reuters and the Guardian both report that senators pressed him on the claims during a May 12 budget hearing.

Paradoxical, isn’t it? The CIA can apparently still keep a lid on JFK-era paperwork, while good-old American political assassination ops run around in broad daylight wearing press credentials. Wanna have a beer and talk it through?

While Washington is busy running narrative-management drills on itself, the rest of the planet keeps moving.  Rotating to the West (toward stir-fry land).

Out for Chinese

“Oh look!  Over there!”  

And while we were looking? China gains major edge on U.S. amid Iran war, U.S. intelligence finds – The Washington Post.

“And over there, too!!!“

Russian missiles, drones pound Kyiv overnight; at least 5 killed, 44 injured as rescue efforts continue.

Yes sir – DDSS (Different day, similar shit.). Now put a quarter in the Warlitzer and listen to the golden newbies:  China’s Xi warns Trump about “conflicts” if Taiwan isn’t “handled properly”.

And lean left so you can see this one a little clearer: Trump’s killer quote exposes his bind on Iran and inflation.  Replaying the Replays, kids.  Useless.

Retail: Around the Corner & Up Your Prices

Retail Sales just out:

“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $757.1 billion, up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 4.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from April 2025. Total sales for the February 2026 through April 2026 period were up 4.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The February 2026 to March 2026 percent change was revised from up 1.7 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 1.6 percent (±0.2 percent).

Markets blowing off skyward but Big Sales mean the Fed could (likely) pass and maybe even (shhh!) raise…

And a good time will be had by all. Bankers.

New UI Filings Data

Slaughterhouse Economics

My friend The Economic Fractalist is hot on the trail of coherence in Are the two elegantly simple time-based self-ordering fractal math rules of Lammert Fractal Economics part of the simulation governing human-affairs asset-debt macroeconomics?

Well, yes.  Not sure if the Hopium will last through the weekend.  This might become “turd around Turdsday.”  We noticed that Bitcoin took a bounce of $79,000 overnight.  Will it just keep on going?  We “warshed” our hands of crypto more than a decade back.  But, we will admit this (Ponzi replay) for this long wave cycle is sure an interesting life-extension experiment.

Tell me: Is there a link between gullibility and longevity?

Around the Ranch: Drought About

Heat’s on and the water’s gone.

My buddy Dr. John up in the I(rural, the man’s not stupid) PNW tells me the white wheat prices are still too low for Washington state wheat farmers. “Red’s are getting up close to $10-bucks, but the white wheat is still under what hundreds of farm families need to break-even,” he tells me.

And looking at the map just out for the week?

This weekend, our ShopTalk Sunday will get into real greenhouse temperature control engineering. Long article, but it’s only the Stage 1 report.  More will be coming.

And to remind you how dry it is in Texas this year?

Last year by the end of April we had 18.86 inches and this far into May? We had 21.4 inches.  This year? 10.17 inches year to date.

What is even more sobering is talk of a super El Nino. No to a Depression Dust Bowl replay – yet.

 A super El Niño can rearrange storm tracks and worsen drought in some regions, but a Dust Bowl takes a stack: persistent drought, heat, bare/fragile soils, bad land management, wind, and crop/ground-cover failure. The 1930s were not just “weather”; they were weather plus exposed Plains soil.

The warning flag is that drought is already broad: NOAA’s seasonal drought assessment says over 60% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought as of April 7, with extensive drought continuing.

Super El Niño doesn’t make a Dust Bowl. It lights the match. Bare soil, heat, wind, and bad water policy decide whether the prairie burns.  But there’s a lot of economic arson in markets, too.  We will bring chickens back online here after the summer heat’s off.

A few sacks of rice, a few eggs, and both a dirt garden, hydro, and rain capture for any that comes along.  Is that paranoia?

Nope. Dr. John says we still have six-weeks before secondary hantavirus spread clarifies. And the Polish Seer hints “Keep an eye on Italy” for possible clues.

Write when you feel safe cruising again,

George@Ure.net