At Peoplenomics, we go past the headline churn and focus on what may actually matter: the charts, the structure, the timing, and the money flows underneath the noise. This weekend’s work looks at a market that may be caught between a short-term reflex rally and a much larger, more dangerous rollover. Along the way, we dig into oil shock risk, war-driven distortions in global energy pricing, and why LNG constraints could matter as much as crude in the weeks ahead. It’s not about drama for drama’s sake. It’s about trying to see what the numbers are suggesting before the crowd catches up.
This week’s ChartPack also walks through one of my own recent trades in the “lunch money” account, showing how state-variance work, moving-average conflict, and timing discipline can turn a small options position into a meaningful gain without needing to bet the ranch. The larger framework compares current market behavior to prior major tops, including the 1929-style replay work, while also asking the practical question every trader ought to ask right now: are we setting up for a rally, or just for the next leg down?
If you like your market analysis with less television theater and more chalk-talk, pattern work, and real-world decision framing, that’s what Peoplenomics is built for. Not financial hype. Not doomscrolling. Just a weekly sharpening stone for the mind.
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Fox News Host Brian Kilmeade reveals what President Trump said behind closed doors in the Oval Office, when the cameras were off…
https://x.com/sagesteele/status/2035102005543223787?s=20
Chalk Talk : a slow rolling top has been in the chat (here) in particular the Comp which caused me to scroll back through charts thinking … I’ve seen this before. The fact I have memory of a similar roll means the last one left an impression (a mark). Grab a 3 year chart and move back in chunks (most charting widgets allow cursor click, a grab, and move back and forth through time). Take a peek at summer 2007. It’s a close cousin. I could super-impose one on the other but find a squinty casual stare close enough for horse shoes. YCMV (your chart may vary).
A canary in the coal mine was when our TNX broke 4.3 which is … not good. Though I believe most is a tempest in T-pot (the news supposedly pushing markets) this situ-set is providing cover for some who got a bit over-extended so per Risk Officers went risk off. I doubt this directional move is over but there will be cross currents ahead. Remember, it’s bear market counter-trend rallies which will tear your head off.
On looking at Indexes … the DJIA is, while most widely cited, pretty irrelevant. 30 stocks (which don’t event fit *industrial* descriptor) do not a market make. Of the remaining two, after a dalliance with the Comp (Nasdaq composite) I settled in on the S&P500. Play where the action (ergo liquidity) is …
Markets go through entire cyclic phases of “looking away” to run with the bulls then, as must be, price discovery will out. We are at a turn. Every turn is met by new forces, all with a profit motive. Given the magnificent [insert – vibe – number] overweight, in every index, watching a Mag7 clone shows momentary direction. If the Generals are getting shot everyone should duck and cover.
Over forty years I begged associates _and_ clients to quit talking about the crash this the crash that. The *C* word steps on rational decisions. But, as recently as 2008, we had *waterfall declines* which, like a bull cycle, are difficult to stop. Probably we have learned nothing (or, forgot it, or decided this time was different) so will end up watching leverage melt. That’s my belief.
Speaking of, though quashed in news flow, private credit is broken.
That ends the chalk talk from E. This isn’t FA, it _never_ is …
[the above is per my lawyer to defeat your lawyer]
whisper : hey buddy, wanna buy a watch?
ATL : hit the front door with a steaming cup ‘o Joe (brewed by Mrs. E who is inflicted with spring stuff) and, a master Loon began warbling, singing to his mate. After a bar or two, when he began the repeat stanza, she chimed in, singing harmony. I would take that every morning but, will just file to memory banks until the end. Flights of high fliers, Sandhill Cranes, are on the move. Yesterday, in perfekt 60s spring, we sat and watched four Bald Eagles with another Eagle to be named later (believe it’s our migratory Golden, must grab sailing glasses to confirm).
E3 is wild about turtles. They are awake, sorta, still dinosaurs emerging from hibernation. One, shell size of a basketball, spent the entire day eating moss off blocks left as an artificial reef (later to hold down steps and kayak stand). Another ate moss off the seawall, end to end with a yearling in tow (they are clueless). All water life has the slows. They move but you have to watch closely. Think :10’ in an hour!
The sun just came out so I’m tackling two projects before firing the BBQ. I’m installing an exterior security cam. Actually I’m installing a dummy cam so once in place will just need to refresh double-As. Bet it works as well as any other. Cam 2 will be at the barn. Then a much loved crib is coming down and headed for Goodwill. Big focus is burgers and dogs. Can’t wait.
Have a fine weekend,
Egor ~ /) ~~~
Admiral, thank you – a lone sail on the wavelets, I see – may be spring but only for the hardy, eh?
It was the Agm hisself I was contemplating in my Elliott Big 4 done, doing a 4 and then a 5 – because you strike me as likely to hold that ivew. I’m agnostic, of course – I can see a 4-5- completing low and then a laste burst of hot air. But, the abc lower case make as much or more bigly sense of late – your views are appreciated – now leyt’sd lerave a box of chalk around for others, especially three piece – corn squeezin’s and a talk?
George,
Yahoo Scout AI presents a good synopsis of Lammert fractal economics …
This now appears to be a perfect storm …. Consider the DJIA 3 Sept 1929 peak valuation and the 25 Feb 2026 ACWI peak valuation. In 1929 10% margin buying of stock caused extreme valuation and tremendous over-leveraged fragility. In 2026 500 billion dollar’s of private bank and financial industry investment funds caused extreme valuations and like great fragility. The 2026 AI/Tech investment funds were already insolvent in Jan 2026. Add to this meltdown scenario, a strategy-less, self-inflicted global energy/fertilizer shock that limits the fed’s ability in immediately lowering interest rates to confront the cascading debt default and equity crash.
Re: yesterday’s comment: Bitcoin Saturday evening … -1,585.89 -2.18%
And Sunday morning 68,306.99
The AI’s are going need to vanquish the competition for investment capital. And maybe take out some useless mouths who are siphoning off resources. Maybe cut back on old folks too, who compete with the AI for sage status with the worker bees. Not sure an AI Utopia is going to be a lot of fun for the readers.
Or, here in Heaven 2.0 they are the angels? Ignored at our own peril?
Trump and japan? PM wanted a new york city deal? Latest is London and Mohammad and new york city could go way of russia with imported bombs.
No center finance no west . Asleep at wheel
So trump understood Tokyo sold us bonds after china sold them as vote of mo confidence . King Charles dead in water as east own london. So what is left. Pm was told by trump 1980s song ‘turning Japanese’ byway of Tokyo is best bet for peace in arabia as arms is money maker and Tokyo british f47 is in work. Usa always late
If trump was mean he would have called pm on superiority japan versus musk spermbank. He didn’t.
With Trump saying we will be winding down – look for a massive carpet bombing of something that will really piss-off the Iranians. [ We hit their nuke site and they fired at Diego Garcia.]
.
I chart the S&P500 more than anything else. For me., it is the best mix of stocks, commerce & industry, around. When it dipped below 6,500 near the close on Friday., but came back a few points to close at 6,506 – that gave me pause. Nothing special at the 6,500 mark., just a nice round psychological target to throw the darts at. But it, the index, should have kept slipping down.., it didn’t., it was rescued, for some back-room / behind the curtain, nefarious reason. So.., watching Monday’s open has my interest.
[ I closed out three of my four options / puts at the close – did extremely well. Ear-marked for the sail boat fund.]
The Ten Year is closing in on 4.4% – this going to bite someone in the butt – really soon.
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I kind of.., sort of.., agree with your assessment and timing on the mood swings of the markets for the coming months.., but I have to add – something is telling me that it’s not going to work out that way. No math involved.., just an odd overview feeling of the whole damn mess.
[ Personal observation – NFA ]
I ‘am’ setting up long expiration options / puts – doing the math, time decay., etc [ play the game.] ..,.but at the moment – not too sure when and how far – just watching for now . Simply delaying for some unknown reason.
“Stay Frosty !”
I was out exploring a route to the grocery store on my bicycle and busted my @ss. I was running down a largely unmaintained suburban sidewalk adjacent to a 4-lane state highway with curbs and no shoulder. A juniper limb had grown out blocking 2/3 of the sidewalk. I brushed it out near the end. and that sucker didn’t give 2″. The bicycle went sideways in the air and I did a ballistic nosedive onto my shoulder. Bruises and scratches but no breaks so far. If I hadn’t been wearing arm pads & a MIPS helmet, it would have serious. Ribs and shoulder are sore, but no internal bleedinhg.
I wrote up confit I on of the route to local city and county. We will see if anyone pays attention.
Should have been:
“I wrote up condition of the route to local city and county.”
My cell phone keyboard does strange things. It doesn’t do spell checks; it seems to randomly insert spaces and characters. No concussion.
At the end of last year, I thought that we would have $ 2 gasoline by now; instead I paid more that $4 a gallon for ethanol-free gasoline this morning. Do I think we are headed for $20 gasoline. No, of course not. But I am not drinking the Kool-aid anymore, either. I am going to follow a contrarian planning regimen, because what I want to believe isn’t what is happening out there in the world.
And, aside from determining my route to the nearest grocery store leaves a lot to be desired, I was able to make the ride with panniers in about 30 minutes, one way. Next test ride will be with the trailer. That can wait a week, while my shoulder heals a bit. I don’t see me slacking off my daily 4 mile ride next week.
Iran ‘parliament’ chose a right wing zealot for supreme leader Therefore ancient seers say russian move germany august
Testing the national service, George. Like they say, check’s in the mail.
We’ll see how efficient the old world still is.
Thanks for all you do.
Stiks
Here is a fun woo hoo for you. I had lunch with my woman’s group today. Linda said she ordered a dress from Northstrom catalogue for Christmas. She waited 2 weeks and it didn’t come so she called. She was told that there was no record of her order. Linda told them her order number and date but they insisted there was no order. So. she ordered the dress again. The same thing happens, she waited 2 weeks, calls, and is told she never ordered even though she has a new order number. She thinks, well, maybe I need to order more things, so she orders the dress again and a bunch of Easter items. 2 weeks later no dress arrives, no Easter stuff, so she calls again and is again told that there was no order even though she has the date of the order and the order number. Linda was told the last order she placed was in November 2025.The person she talked to asked her if she wanted to order the dress again. Linda laughed and said she would never order from the catalog again. Nothing was ever billed on her credit card for any of the 3 orders and nothing has ever been delivered. Linda is the club’s secretary. She said she wrote down the date, time, items ordered, and the order number each time. I believe her.
The only way to get the PoO to fall is for the Americans to leave the ME.
Alternatively, Iran must torch London/Tel Aviv/Jerusalum saving the world from the Gang of Pedophiles (GoP).
Wrong year to buy a new ICE.
re: a dollar worth 50 cents
feat: Trumpflation opportunity
The American Numismatic Association website advises that #30 President Coolidge is the only living president to date with his image on US currency. He featured on the 1926 half dollar. Apparently a million such half-dollar coins selling at a buck apiece saw special issue for the sesquicentennial American Independence celebration in Philadelphia. It seems 859,408 coins found their way back to the Mint and got melted down due to lagging sales. Who could have thought such a marketing meltdown be possible in the “City of Brotherly Love” whose motto derives from Hebrews 13:1?
Sound the trumpets for an upcoming release of a Trump coin celebrating the 250th Independence Day. It’s heralded as a golden opportunity. (This is not investment advice.) The victories just keep on dropping after the “BBC” summary of last month’s first gathering of the Board of Peace for Gaza. Nine nations including Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait chipped in $7 billion towards the goal. I don’t know if the cheques have been cashed yet. No hurry, Israel is allegedly still “de-militarizing” Gaza.
No coin or banknote should ever have the image of a living person.
True…
But BoM makes an exception for 50-year anniversaries.
I wish I had a roll or two of those Coolidge halfs in MS-63. I would hock a few to buy myself a stocked farm.
The only problem I have with the Trump coin is it is gold, which will price it out of the reach of we commoners…
re: “The Octagon”, Norris, 8/8/80
feat: #47’s Osan (“Crow Mountain”) UFC match?
What an interesting headline – “a coward before Monday”. Do you have time to synchronize your Montoir for a dive? The late Russian oceanographer Dr. Yakov Gakkel created the first Arctic basin bathymetric map in 1934. Various Telegram and msm outlets noted the arrival on Friday of his namesake shadow fleet Russian icebreaking natural gas carrier at the (commune of) Montoir, France.
The port named on their “VesselFinder” site image is St. Nazaire which derives from Nazarius, a martyred follower of the Apostle Peter. The port housed the nazi U-boat fleet in WW2. The ship’s management company resolves to a concern in the UK. A Ukrainian-leaning, Dutch headquartered website, “Razom We Stand”, connects dots of the ship’s alleged ownership to China and Canada at the following link:
https://razomwestand.com/stop-seapeak-canada-and-the-uk-must-pull-the-plug-on-putins-arctic-gas-lifeline/
For some unknown reason, the Ukrainians stop short of naming the Sino-Canadian venture’s parent which is in the public record. The parent company allegedly resolves to a privately held American entity domiciled in the newer vintage Manhattan office tower of 55 Hudson Yards. The edifice is owned by a Japanese real estate developer founded in 1941. Prior to construction, the site’s primary address had been 555 – 33rd St. West. It’s primary tenant was The Octagon nightclub which opened 9 days after Black Monday in 1987. Some works of one of the club’s affiliated artists have been preserved at MOMA by the Judith Rothschild Foundation.
re: “London Calling”, The Clash
feat: “God’s Helpers” in Yemen
Right wing, New York-headquartered, Orthodox Jewish broadcaster Belaaz News published one video at 0252 gmt 23Mar of an alleged arson attack beside a Jewish synagogue in Golders Green, London. It was picked up by CNN at 0344 gmt. UK msm remained silent. The video clip depicted ambulances going up in flames beside Mach Zikei Hadath (“Sparks of the Faith”?) synagogue.
Yemen’s Ansarulla (“Helpers of God”) group offered three videos of the event on Telegram at 0254 gmt from two additional locales. Their primary video bore two added watermarks. “U.S.” appeared in red font. Beneath it a Persian script translated as “Preparation”.
Here is a link to a “London Evening Standard” report from last Thursday concerning two Anglo-Iranians being tried for alleged casing out of Jewish London targets in the summer of 2025:
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/b1275686.html
(Arabic word “ansar” means helpers[pl.]; “nasir” means helper[sing.].)
$AMZN is positioned with a partial fleet of EVs. $TSLA will have the EV semis soon:
“Tesla Semi shocked the trucking industry with a real-world test showing just 15 cents per mile, proving why Elon Musk calls the Tesla Semi a “money machine.””
$WMT, not so much.
$TOYOF switched over most of their fleet to hybrid.
$F & $GM, not so much.
Who knew Trump was a 10 minute citist. There coming our way.