Markets may look orderly on the surface, but today’s Mid-Week Sit Rep argues we’re no longer living through a normal cycle. We’re sitting in a giant global casino where debt, demographics, geopolitics, tech disruption, and media-amplified perception all push the herd from one emotional table to the next. Instead of betting on narratives, today’s column focuses on flows, second- and third-order effects, and why a small defined-risk short-side option position can make sense when downside risk appears underpriced relative to the official story.
From there, the column pivots into a deeper question: why do investors get blindsided even when the evidence is right in front of them? That leads into today’s ChartPack and a companion paper, Hidden Clocks that Hurt Investors, which explores the idea that some of the biggest market mistakes may come not from bad data, but from hidden timing errors inside the human mind itself. In other words, this is not just a market piece. It’s also a look at how cognition, time, and decision-making shape outcomes in a world where the tables may be noisier than ever.
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remember Joe Kent said ‘see link’,,, back in 2020, but now has flipped and flopped like a fish on dry ground,, dry as in , had his intel briefings removed, so his controller had him resign and use him as bait to lure folks away
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116247522086271962
“lure away” Ya mean folks like Shosanna Strook?
Who was she and why was she MURDERED ? ..think it had anything to do with orange jesus and PEDOPHILIA?
She did publicly confirm epSTAIN isnt Dead. That his Death was staged and he was expatriated to israHELL. That he was intelligence asset. That is still operating in the shadows, moving among the same powerful circles of hell she said destroyed her childhood.
Some might be allegedly saying that Assistant Director Skinner’s boss sussed out Sculley’s search for her missing brother Charlie. Facing Lex’s kryptonite, Superman probably had no choice but to place a call to the operator and get beamed off the bridge.
Ill take “overtrading” for a thousand, G-Pops.
Boredom and lack of patience are my two worst enemies when comes to overtrading. Like an addict – I know it, but still do it..over trading that is. Investing is a “Horse” of a different color, than trading. When investing I am seeking early trends, early flows, and I dont care about Price too much once I have ID next investment vehicle.
Trading has become moar like Entertainment to me anymore. As such small positive balance to flat is year end goal, just like my Sports Betting. The small balance to flat number includes Dinner, Drinks, ect.. Anything moar is “IceCream” that requires “LICKING” .
Speaking of early trends and what notz, better-half was at local grocery store Monday trying find Heinekin Dbl Ought (zero) . Cant find it, asks the stock guy, he says “past three months that stuff has been flying off the shelfs”.
Hmmmm I says to my precious self, there is something here that I need to get in on. You see most recent earning statements from the Big Brewers and Big Liquor have all been reporting DECLINING numbers this past year. Then later in day I read article about how Philly bars are being very accommodative to Zebra Stripers.
Whats a zebra striper ? They are the Men and Women who paint the Black Stripes on the Zebras at the Philly Zoo. Yeah its supposedly a very hazardous job…
Oh alright, yes I am blowing smoke Ure ass. Zebra stripers are the indecisive Alcoholics, who alternate Non-Alcoholic drink with Alcoholic drinks.
Signs everywhere on these tasty dbl ought Green Heiny’s. Heinekin pays a nice lil Dividend to tithe me over till Time does the rest..Sym (HEINY) 2.78% div yld, near its 52 wk low. ?
Will Peeps still be drinking their brews thru an economic downturn, Si, will they still be drinking brews thru a Depression, prolly not Heiny’s, by then Drinkers may all be getting our booze from a Bathtub..ala prohibition times.
“just keep buying” -https://youtu.be/FDHSF4n3i24?
Not, Never Financial Advice. Yes, I am Long some HEINYs’, I also dont Drink..anymore so there is that.
Write When You Understand PEACE
that oughta fix resident “blood” drinkers cheering on WW3/4
“Joe Kent”
Rumor is Joe being a Green Beret who takes the oath seriously won’t go along with one of Trump’s/henchman’s plans to 911 the U.S. so quit. Stay tuned, right?
“Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin”
Ireland may have been something one hundred years ago or more but today.
“Ireland is considering a plan (as of early 2026) to allow non-citizens to enlist in the Defence Forces for an accelerated route to Irish citizenship to address staff shortages. Currently, EEA nationals, refugees, and non-nationals with at least three years of legal, unbroken residency can join, but the new proposal aims to reduce this, possibly leading to citizenship after 3–5 years of service.”
Irish Kurds on deck soon.
Newt may have the best idea w/carpet nuking Iran. After the bombing Newt holes up on drip like McConnell unaware of the results.
Rumor is, Joe being a spy for a foreign adversary won’t dovetail with current security requirements.
He obviously didn’t take his oath seriously — at least not the one he made with the U.S. Government.
If you’re going to be a troll, you really need to try harder…
Really best to avoid getting overly wound up over Iran if possible. Step away from news (?) media and breath the fresh air. I am and will forever care about our latest best and brightest sent to do impossible things. Sometimes the magic works, sometimes not.
Old Lodge Skins: “… Come out and fight! It is a good day to die! Thank You for making me a Human Being! Thank You for helpin’ me to become a warrior! Thank You for my victories, and for my defeats! Thank You for my vision, and the blindness in which I saw further! You make all things and direct them in their ways, O Grandfather. And now You have decided the Human Beings will soon walk a road that leads nowhere. I am gonna die now, unless death wants to fight. And I ask You for the last time to grant me my old power to make things happen. …”
[Lies down to die. After a moment, props himself up on his elbows to add:]
Old Lodge Skins: Take care of my son here. See that he doesn’t go crazy. […]
Old Lodge Skins: [groans] “… I was afraid of that. Well, sometimes the magic works. Sometimes, it doesn’t. …”
Little Big Man
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0065988/quotes/
Look, though persistent in seeking clicks, unless someone is privy to the right Skif (Sensitive Compartmented Information Facilities) chat, a very select number of people know what’s in the current target package(s) and fewer know the why.
Buckle up and maintain support for our kids.
It’s _the_ side of Our Grandfather …
It’s the way. [pop vernacular]
“unless someone is privy to the right Skif…
…chat, a very select number of people know what’s in the current target package(s)…
I find that hard to believe. There must be at least five people at this site alone who’re privy to above Cabinet-level military Intel.
I wish I were one. I have to dig for my info, establish my own 2nd and 3rd hand contacts, and do my own fact-checking, when I can…
Perhaps a Cabinet-level military Intel peep can enlighten us before the Indians:
US buys ‘aliens. gov’ domain sparking UFO speculation and conspiracy theories
“The White House has quietly registered the domain ‘aliens. gov’ under the Executive Office of the President, a verifiable federal asset sitting in the same official .gov registry as whitehouse. gov and cia. gov. No website is active at the address, and no explanation has been offered. But the timing has set off an explosion of speculation. The registration arrives just weeks after President Donald Trump publicly directed the Pentagon to begin releasing classified files on UFOs, UAPs, and extraterrestrial life, and for millions of people, the two developments are anything but unrelated.”
top… men
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fdjf4lMmiiI
Or it’s a new dhs initiative?
Shirley you jest Ray. I’m pretty certain there isn’t a single person here, or anyone you or I know who are privy to Cabinet-level military Intel. Some have enough time on target to know more than the average Joe, but it’s a series of educated guesses, not certainty. ~E~
Don’t call me “Shirley…”
I agree with the “guesses” part. The “educated,” not so much…
Perhaps these so called higher ups on this site were also privy to the new gouging of the American taxpayer, $200 Billion requested to kill the bad guys:
https://pix11.com/instagram/hegseth-on-200b-iran-war-funding-request-it-takes-money-to-kill-bad-guys/
R, your WMD’s (Weapons of Mass Delusion) aren’t holding up so well. There was no imminent threat. Trump is Bibi’s Bit..(female dog). Get off the Kool-Aid and do a Reality Check!
Excellent column this morning George. Also enjoying reading your new book “Co-Telligence” on Kindle.
d’Lynn is our resident expert on “Know when to hold them. Know when to fold them.” At least in a game of poker and I suspect in other areas of his life. Perhaps he can give us some insight into the thought process for his decisions.
My decision process usually happens rather fast., and more often than not., somewhat aggressive. Whether it is a confrontation with a bad guy., a theoretical math model for time decay in options., or bumping the pot a couple hundred while facing two queens showing from another player.
Working the odds takes mere seconds., there is very little room, or time for ‘pondering’. Hesitation can cripple ya.
It happens very fast for me. Always has. Especially if it is a subject, or area that I know., or have experienced before. Venturing into the unknown., which I love., I’ll look at the subject or problem from many different angles., or views. There is always an answer, and it is more often than not, right in front of you., you just have to be open, just enough, to see it and act upon it.
Some people will say that, that is all nothing more than “gut-level” processing. It’s not. I do rely on my gut feelings – especially when it comes to the physical aspects., but pushing the buy-now tab on a options purchase is 90 percent math and 10 percent gut-feeling.
Math doesn’t lie., people lie about the math., and you can fool yourself, easily, in believing the ‘wrong math’. Flawed logic based on incorrect data. Like believing a “national survey”., it all makes sense to you., you believe what the survey is representing., then you discover the so-called “national survey” was 1,200 people from the south Bronx. Not exactly the pulse of the nation. Yet., you originally bought into it.
Decision making is a fine art and comes from experience. Ask any combat vet. If you are honest with yourself and have the time to study and write down the goals and consequences., along with the trip-wires., your decision should work out just fine – and you may just find a new way to make those choices / decisions.
“Stay Frosty !”
Him ] “What happens to us when we die?”
Me ] “You end up playing saxophone for an all-girl cabaret in a smoky jazz bar in New Orleans.”
Him ] “So., you believe in heaven.”
Me ] “I do…,”
Love it.
Quick check in to let you know I survived our blasting Kona Low storm. High winds took out 111 power poles on the Big Island. I was without power for three days, internet out for five days just came back overnight. Generator got a workout for the first time in eight years. More later as I am catching up.
Interesting view on clocks, and quite accurate in some ways. I could never be a day trader – getting used to the idea of even a small trade takes time – far too long in my case. I’m definitely type 2 or higher, even if I might desire a young hottie. Forcing myself to sell even in the face of obvious reality is just hard work! I always think through quantity, tax consequences, and what to do with the proceeds if I sell. Then there’s the challenge and forced slow process of phone calls, clicking, and possibly negotiation. Sometimes it’s just easier to leave things as they are.
JP Morgan lamented that he always sold too soon. Little did he know!
Phew JAC had a deep thought…
(“JAC
March 18, 2026 at 10:52
Best to let enlightened self interest govern then. Right? Since the US gets a trivial amount of oil through the straits (and is actually now a net exporter of oil/gas)….After making things thoroughly go bounce in Iran, we should then cede Hormuz to the EU and any others who actually need to keep the straight open. What’s the worst that could happen? That’s right the value of domestically produced oil and gas would increase. While China’s Taiwan hopes would literally be choked into impossibility. Win-win. I’m happy to pay more at the pump (and elsewhere) for a world rid of Mullahs bent on hastening the return of the missing Madi by any means necessary. Your mileage may vary.”)
My Reply to this deep thought…
(” Looking out of the box
March 18, 2026 at 14:07
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
Phew…..big one there..the neighborhoods where the issues facing the average citizen simply doesn’t exist…The problem with saying “I can afford higher fuel prices, so it’s fine” is that it ignores the cascading reality underneath the whole issue…
Sure, some people can absorb a few extra dollars at the pump without blinking. But the average worker that’s already stretched thin by rising taxes, utilities, food costs, and housing can’t…. And once fuel rises, everything else has to rise with it. Water systems , schools, emergency services infrastructure repairs that are already on legislators do list…
all of these systems need fuel to operate. All of them raise taxes or fees to compensate this moderate increase in supplies and transportation expenses….
Then think about it as you climb the ladder of society and see the next layer of consequences to this expense increase…
Industries paying more for the raw materials they require, transportation and delivery expenses rise, heating , manufacturing , and distribution of products. That once “ minor inconvenience ” at the pump soon becomes a major shockwave through the entire economy .
We saw this up front and ugly during the COVID shutdowns, when people stopped buying , businesses collapsed under the weight of consequences… When businesses begin to collapse , jobs vanish which amplifies the situation..kind of like Domino’s.. when one falls over soon the Domino’s closely related have to tumble as well…. When jobs vanish, communities start to hollow out.
Add to that the Vast costs of our global military operations that are happening..millions of dollars per missile , billions of dollars to move equipment across oceans , and the strain of maintaining multiple fronts at once.
It’s easy to say “ it’s worth it ” when you’re insulated from the fallout… the neighborhoods where the effects of increases exist.. those already causing strain on the people supporting the upper rungs of the ladder.. then the fall of value do to inflating ..oh wait didn’t this happen during the Weimar depression, or Zimbabwe, how about Greece and Argentina.
For the people thats already living paycheck to paycheck ( I’m on that rung of the ladder), for the small towns already on the edge , for the families who can’t absorb one more hit on their checkbook… … the view from that angle from the ring of the ladder of the ground looks very very different.
What seems eerily like a strategic chess move from the top of the pile becomes a serious survival crisis at the bottom .
And ignoring those peoples issues at the bottom layers reality doesn’t make it disappear , instead it just makes the consequences land harder on the people least able to bear them.”)
He ded.
Yep, “He ded”
If not ded … well b hurt reel bad. Tru Belivrs behavior who no say, “He ded”
Orange Man feel neked with “He ded”
Who now wear “He ded”‘s shoes?
I can honestly say that I don’t have any ‘goals’ at the moment. I have several ‘projects’ in the works – would those be considered ‘goals’? ., or simply ‘projects’? To-Do ‘Stuff’ ?
Of the goals I have had.., I set-out and accomplished them. ‘Get it done’.. attitude. I have never made any long-range goals. Buy a house in five years. Nope.., buy it as soon as possible – like.., now. New car? Done by the weekend. Start and use a trade-account.., took four days.
Defining what a ‘goal’ is presents the problem. Most people’s goals are all monetary based.., some are relationships., some religion / belief.., that’s true – personal growth seems to be lagging as a goal for most. Money appears to rule.
And that nearly always creates a major road block for accomplishments.
* * *
Of all the ‘goals’ that I have had.., dream actually.., started when I was ten, or eleven years old., after reading Joshua Slocum’s “Sailing Alone Around the World”. That dream grew a bit to – Sailing Alone – Non-stop – Around the World.
I had a couple of opportunities., but had to go another direction at the time. Probably too damn old now.., but the dream is still there – just as vivid and just as strong.
It could possibly be – the one that gets away.
The NASDAQ – & – the DJIA both closes below their 200 DMA. The S&P500 is sitting about 9 points above it’s 200 DMA.
Bitcoin dropped $3,400 but still above $70,000.
Gold dropped $140 / Silver down $2.30 [ but still above $75 ]
West Texas Tea is at $98 a barrel and Brent Sea is $109
The US Dollar is up 0.73 to 100.06
Sixty-nine percent of the crude oil that moved through the Strait of Hormuz went to China, India, Japan and South Korea.
Oil that passed through the Strait of Hormuz constituted about 7% of United States crude oil and 2% of U.S. petroleum liquids. The United States has led crude oil production globally for the past six years.
” This move by Iran will affect them., and the rest of the world much more then us. If Iran does not stop shelling their neighbors, their entire oil products will be destroyed and they will suffer for decades., economically.” Marc Rubio
In a small section of Los Angeles tacos have doubled in price since mid-January. Nacho’s have nearly tripled. Where’s the out-cry !
E-free gas in Hilo hit $6.19 yesterday.
Perhaps the 400+ year Nostradamus prophecy of Western collapse will ferret out and the Nostradamus poster will be vindicated? I’ll have to buy the posters E-book as tribute…. but I won’t have money because the system will have structurally collapsed. Not sure how I’ll pay for Internet access either to buy the E-book. A lot of dimensions to the hard times that are coming.
Stay tuned.
re: “The Last Fiction”, 2018
feat: “Shahnameh” (Book of Kings), 1010ad
Mashhad (“Place of Martyrdom”) was the birthplace of Iran’s national Epic Poem, “Shahnameh” (Book of Kings), a thousand years ago. The city is situated in the province of Khorasan (“Land of the Rising Sun”).
Iran’s newest Secretary of the National Security Council, Dr. Saeed Jalili, is from Mashhad, and is of Kurdish-Azeri parentage. Dr. Jalili’s doctoral thesis is titled “The Paradigm (Foundation) of Political Thought of Islam in the Qu’ran”. The version of it released as a novel to the masses is titled “The Foreign Policy of the Prophet”.
Welcome back to the 21st century thanks to Coldplay’s “Clocks” with DJ George. Next up from the band is a travelvlog to none other than New York City. Here we go via the following Youtube link at the ‘(Chinese) auction’ timestamp with – “Trouble in Town”:
https://youtu.be/aKlwJROuo-Q&t=4m55s
PSA – Remember to keep solvent-soaked articles out of your dryer, and help prevent laundry fires!
Is stu being attacked?
“Is stu being attacked?”
No.
“Took the site down. Too dangerous now. We trained some of the crew on the tanker that went down.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/component/content/article/shelter-in-place-ordered-macdill-air-force-base?catid=20&Itemid=101
Tell the war hawks on Urban that they’ll be crying too when the draft starts and their kids and grandkids get called up and then come home in a box.
Saw too much of that shit with Afghanistan and Iraq.”
Stay Frosty,
Stu
Jobs:
“Trump is actively considering deploying thousands of additional U.S. troops to the Middle East to reinforce ongoing operations against Iran.”
“These include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz — potentially requiring troops on Iran’s shoreline — and seizing control of Kharg Island, which handles 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports. ”
Troops stationed every 20 meters across the entire shoreline?