Hurricanes spinning, tankers getting shot at, Washington arranging Russian diesel while sanctioning Russia, and Wall Street celebrating. Welcome to Saturday, where the headlines are the atoms, but the real trouble begins when they form molecules. Today’s Peoplenomics News Compressor connects the dots between energy, warfare, consumer confidence, and financial markets. The wiring diagram isn’t pretty.
Then we’re into the Saturday ChartPack and our latest Over-the-Horizon (OTH) forecasting diagnostic. With consumer sentiment sinking while stocks climb, we’re looking at the possibility of a final market push higher before external events take control. The question isn’t simply whether a top is forming. It’s whether the growing number of geopolitical and economic stress points will finally bond into something markets can no longer ignore.
But the real intellectual adventure comes afterward. Following Wednesday’s exploration of the Missing Frame of reality, we’re going somewhere unusual: Investors & AI, Broomsticks & Witchery. What do witches staring into black mirrors, shamans contemplating fires, and humans entering prolonged AI collaboration have in common? Perhaps more than you think. We’re exploring voluntary domain independence—the possibility of deliberately stepping outside our normal mental frameworks to discover connections ordinary thinking misses.
Could the next frontier in human evolution be less about making AI think like us and more about learning to think beyond the boundaries we’ve spent our lives building? That’s where today’s subscriber report ends up. Four courses today: News Compressor, ChartPack, OTH, and a trip through the Witch’s Mirror. Bring your curiosity. We’ll provide the broomsticks.
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yaba yaba yaba lu lu lu lu ma ma ma ma . just responding in AI tongue to the market pushing higher. but in the great cage rattler lingo from early gold bull days . market higher rattler ? aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Seeker of Truth
I do not know if anyone has previously commented upon Nate Hagens blog at
https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/frankly-original/161-humanitys-icarus-moment
He discusses 20 reasons to be concerned about the growth and evolution of Artificial Intelligence. I think he makes a good presentation of the subject. It is about an hour in length.
73
—–
“You are not paranoid if THEY are REALLY out to get you.”
“Let no GOOD DEED (recorded in on-line history) go UNPUNISHED (retroactively)”.
Thanks for sending this along. Nate Hagens is doing some serious systems-level thinking here, and I respect the work. But we’re approaching the AI problem from two different directions. Nate is looking at civilization’s *metabolism* — energy, resources, overshoot, and what happens when we dump trillions of cognitive workers into an economic machine already addicted to growth. Fair questions. My work starts a little closer to home: **Who is driving the machine, and does the driver have the slightest idea where he’s going?**
In *Mind Amplifiers*, and more recently in my work on cognitive state management, I’ve been arguing that the real shortage isn’t intelligence. It’s **executive control over intelligence**. Before asking AI to solve a problem, we ought to ask whether we’re in the right mental state to define the problem correctly in the first place. What state am I in? Is it appropriate to the task? What state would work better? And how do I get there safely? AI can multiply thinking power enormously, but multiplying poorly directed thinking doesn’t magically produce wisdom. It produces industrial-scale mistakes, delivered faster.
Then there’s my *1,000 MPH Car Problem*: just because technology can build a car capable of a thousand miles an hour doesn’t mean civilization needs one. Or can afford the road. Or the wreckage. That connects directly to my developing book, *The Case Against Advertising and Fashion (F.A.M.E.)*, where the Four Horsemen of Consumerism — Fashion, Advertising, Media, and Entertainment — have turned much of modern life into revenue farming. AI dropped into that business model doesn’t automatically liberate humanity. It may simply become the most efficient sales department ever invented. And efficiency isn’t resilience. Sometimes the friction and slack we work so hard to eliminate are exactly what keep systems alive.
So I think Nate and I are looking at opposite ends of the same telescope. He’s asking whether the economic Superorganism can survive another enormous acceleration. I’m asking whether individuals can reclaim enough agency to **decide what deserves accelerating at all**. That’s also why we’re developing our Over-the-Horizon forecasting work: not merely to predict the next collision, but to recognize when today’s little headline atoms begin bonding into tomorrow’s dangerous compounds. The challenge isn’t to make AI smaller or humanity faster. It’s to make human judgment good enough to deserve the horsepower we’re putting under the hood.
…And I’m looking at it like: It doesn’t matter, because the Chinese are going to barrel ahead at top speed, regardless of danger or consequence. We are not Han. Therefore, if we lose this technology race, we also lose the justification for our existence.
But…but… I slept at a Holiday Inn once and I eat char sui…doesn’t that count for anything? Buying a Xiegu G-90 help?
Just because the person driving next to you is heading for going off the cliff at 200 mph doesn’t mean you have to drive off the cliff with them just because you don’t want to “lose the race”.
The risks of AI “I” feel are real. It’s ability to be utilized by bad people with bad ideas, some of them just straight out the MAD SCIENTISTS category with crazy ideas about how they would like to “REFORM” the world to make a better place scares the shit out of me.
Scientists in particular are prone to going off on those types of tangents REGULARLY, I have concluded that just the way some of their brains work … and it scares the crap out of me.
“IF” some of those very intelligent and well educated scientists could get funding they would jump at the chance to put into action their crazy ideas, but almost never will governments give them the funding that they need for accomplishing their crazy ideas which spares society from the chaos that they would create in trying to remake the world into THEIR vision of some Utopia.
With AI the need for lots of government funding will not be necessary for some types of actions that some may want to do.
Am I the only one who remembers the Uni-Bomber? or the people who dreamed up the Crazy Ideas of the 3rd Reich which set out to kill an entire ethnic group? Or Pol Pot? Or Idi Amin? Or the Turks attempt at TOTAL ethnic cleansing of the Armenians? Or the South African serious science program (in the 1960’s) to develop a designer disease to kill off the Blacks of South Africa (which is NOW possible to do since the Human Genome has finally been decoded).
AI will give those types a power that crazies have not generally had throughout history for engaging in MASS KILLINGS even though the crazy person who sets out to do that now may only be ONE SINGLE PERSON.
@Stephen 2
“AI will give those types a power that crazies have not generally had throughout history for engaging in MASS KILLINGS even though the crazy person who sets out to do that now may only be ONE SINGLE PERSON.”
The Chinese Communist Party is going to give themselves this power. Why on Earth would you want them to be the only ones so-armed, and why would you feel safe with a regime that deliberately murdered as many as 60 million of its own people, and killed by starvation, at least 40 million more, with impunity, and without remorse or regret, having this power, and having an innate dislike of every human ethnicity that’s not Han-Chinese?
The United States has been the greatest political force for good in the history of the world. We may not be as “pure” in the trenches as we once were, but as depraved as our masses be and as dishonest as our politicians are, I still trust us more than I do, any other nation — especially Communist China, under Xi.
I fail to understand why you don’t…
China ALREADY HAS that kind of scientific power, as does the US, if they care to use it. Don’t you realize that?
I am talking about the CRAZY SCIENTIST who AI will enable to ALSO have that kind of power, with just merely having access to a good University Level Lab.
Why would you want to give the POWER to create chaos of an entire National State and kill hundreds of million (billions?) to a single, or small group, of crazy scientists who are under the control of NO ONE?
Nation States particularly if they are a LARGE Nation State have an institutional bias to maintain some sort of stability since what they do to others can be done to them. Individuals or small groups DO NOT have that same restriction placed upon them. For some the MORE chaos the better!
Sorry … AI is opening a HUGE can of worms wrt to scientifically EMPOWERING both individuals and small groups to engage in MASS KILLINGS. (Nations States already have that ability … this is something totally different, giving a few independent rogue actors the killing power of a huge Nation State)
Let’s not forget that ai does not provide all of the information (truth?) because the internet and books it is trained on are not allowed to provide all the information due to the bias of the people/companies/governments/investors involved.
To go a step further, Trump supporters think they are conservative when they are all actually holding, and voting for, the belief system of democrats from 40-50 years ago. This constant moving left by both parties (and the internet and ai trainers) only leave Constitutionalists with a non-moving leg to stand on.
daydreaming,, I have oft caught myself looking out a window or even standing looking out the storm door, and my mind is else where, the other day I daydreaming how I was going to make improvements on my new wood chipper, I was ‘seeing’ how I was going to make fabrications, then something grabs my attention back to my physical, as my mind was on a task, but not really present where the body was. maybe I should check out lessons on remote viewing
got into trouble a lot as a student in a catholic 1-8 grade school, looking out the window with my attention on walk about, till the nun brought my attention back,,, looking out windows seems to be a common trigger, allowing the mind to wonder away from the flesh vehicle
my wood chipper works much better now, feeds better with less jams
OMG! That was me in school… staring out the windows, mind a million miles away from class. Teacher even wrote me up for it in my report card. I still do it, too. ‘Imagineering the next project’.
OK – ham radio pop quiz antenna for the wine room. Rig kenwood ft-590s
Choice 1: Xiegu vg-4 10 feet above roofline
Choice 2: 138 ft efhw with 49:1 150 w balun 30 feet outside wine room, and 50 feet far end (ENEC says not as good as Xiegu but does give 80 m…)
Both fed with lmr 240 and properly choked
???
thanks
Verticals are noisy crap. Many locals use an efhw to great advantage, and a couple POTA enthusiasts take them out in the field to work DX. Somewhat directional, but your tree farm gives you a choice of orientation.
Not me. I saw no future in daydreaming in school. I simply did my last-period homework (Period-1 homework in Period-2 class, Period-2 homework in Period-3 class, etc.) in each class, so when the dismissal bell rang, my afternoon and evening were completely free. I could work, play, or create with impunity (or read and daydream) and never give school a thought…
I hated homework. Rarely did it unless required to turn-in, I passed tests mainly from memory & maintained membership in National Honor Society. The shocker was during a school assembly program that challenged me, I discovered I had an eidetic memory.
The teachers would sometimes get pissy, but I pulled “A” grades and could pretty much ace any quiz or test without prep (and without showing my work. I never crammed, not even in college. Instead, I actually learned the material, so I wouldn’t have to), so after a few months of “educating my educators” every school year, they all came around to leaving me alone. I was also the “dick” who deliberately filled in wrong answers on my test forms when I noticed someone copying my answers. I’d wait until the last five minutes, then erase the wrong answers and fill in the correct ones.
The teachers neither knew, nor cared that I read books on superlearning, advanced puzzles and gaming, speed reading, every MENSA pub I could find, and of course The Trachtenberg System, all for fun, and mostly when I was between the 3rd and 7th Grade. (I also ripped through Dad’s Trigonometry library when I was 9-10.) I had a brother who had a photographic memory and could read well over 6500WPM with total, instant recall. (“How fast can you read?” “How fast can you turn the pages?” He was one of those utter freaks you could ask: “What’s the second paragraph on page 267 of the Machinery Handbook?” and he would quote that paragraph — even months or years later.) I did not have any such gift, so I tried to get as close as I possibly could, within my significant limitation of being “ordinary.” The Trachtenberg and speed-reading books were his, the superlearning books were my Mom’s, the puzzle and MENSA books and mags were mine, via subscriptions my Mom kept buying. For some silly reason, she thought it best to “feed the beast” in her kids, rather than beat us into conformity — go figure…
“got into trouble a lot as a student in a catholic 1-8 grade school, looking out the window with my attention on walk about,”
Me too!
re: “The Truman Show”, 1998
feat: finding your Trumania
For those in the group whose morning workout consists of Guitar Hero windmills in front of the mirror, thanks can be extended to DJ George. “Rock You Like a Hurricane” by the Scorpions apparently offers some good reps.
Meanwhile Hurricane turned tropical storm Isaias (sp/heb: God Saves) rocked ashore near Destin on Florida’s Emerald Coast. Rather than destiny, the town’s namesake turns out to be a whaling captain from New London, Ct. named after London, England according to Wiki. However it seems the Pequot tribe knew New London as Nameaug translating as Fishing Place.
Back in Florida, Destin’s New Urbanism next door neighbor of Seaside contributed filming locations seen in Hollywood movie hit “The Truman Show”. It’s understandable that you may feel an urge to look behind the mirror.
re: a Roman goddess of war approaches calmly
feat: the settlement of war helmet’s people
According to publicly available vessel tracker sites, Cape Fear in the New World will be receiving a Greek flagged tanker shipment carrying Russian oil in time for Columbus Day. Scheduled landing reads as Wilmington in New Hanover County, N.C.
New Hanover County takes its name from the German House of Hanover of England’s King George I. Wilmington is named after Spencer Compton, 1st Earl of Wilmington and Prime Minister of England in 1742/43. His Spencer Compton 2026 descendent is the 7th Marquess of Northhampton who last appeared on the 2017 rich list with an alleged wealth of £110 million.
Publicly available itineraries for MV Minerva Zen (lat/sanscrit: she who thinks calmly) preceding its current St. Petersburg to USA run, point to various ports in Europe. Those include Amsterdam, the Tranmere Oil Terminal at Liverpool, and Portbury (Bristol), UK.
The vessel sailed as Torm Lana from launch until 2012 when it became Minerva Zen. Torm Lana may translate from German/Slavic as “Storm Light”.
George,
If the current peak growth and initial crash fractal series model is correct, the SPX should drop a minimum of 5.6% from its Friday 9 Oct close to its Tuesday 13 Oct close. Money existing equities and flowing into Ten year Notes and 30 year Bond’s should concurrently drive interest rates lower.
Thanks for weighing in with the fractal work. Always appreciate having another set of experienced eyes on the market, especially when they’re looking through a different mathematical telescope.
For readers just dropping by, I want to emphasize that we’re actually in broad agreement about the market’s vulnerability. The difference is mainly one of timing. TEF’s fractal work suggests the knife could drop immediately — a minimum 5.6% decline in the S&P by Tuesday’s close, accompanied by money moving into Treasuries and driving yields lower. Our Peoplenomics ChartPack, meanwhile, still allows for a final upside push, perhaps another week or three, even as our exhaustion indicators warn that the clock is running out.
This is one of the fascinating things about market forecasting. Two different analytical systems can identify essentially the same approaching danger while disagreeing about precisely when the floor gives way. TEF’s fractals are looking at the timing of the break; our moving averages, state variance, and cycle work are watching for the market to exhaust its remaining upside. Neither approach gets a free pass from reality, and Tuesday will give us a particularly useful test of our near-term calls.
So, from my chair, we’re not arguing about whether there’s a knife hanging over this market. We’re debating(the exactly instant) when gravity gets the final vote. And that’s exactly why I value TEF’s contributions here. Different methods, independently developed, looking for the same inflection point. That’s how we sharpen the work rather than just admire our own charts.
In the chartpack today:
Page 33: The differential moving averages support a possible second bullish wind.
Page 34: The exhaustion-risk study warns that the advance may be approaching its limits.
But a hard “Buy the rumor” mon/tue and then an ugly CPI Wed? TEF would then nail the fractal (by an hour of trading time) and the ChartPack on the final burst of mania.
Though that would ,more likely hit the 5-6% down by the following Monday… But if the “news hit is tomorrow” then he get’s the full monte Monday down…
So take some sand, some balloons, can of gas…and let’s see how it rolls!
And all this is subject to news/monkey motion in the backfield, of course…
g i never knew your position on the lay of the land . heres another saying . i love them in markets . bought up by smarter guys than me . id rather be a year early than a day late .
Been sitting here pondering your outlook, and I think we’re a good deal closer in our market views than the calendar might initially suggest.
One wrinkle worth considering: Monday is Columbus Day / Indigenous Peoples’ Day. The stock market is open, but the Treasury cash market is closed. Historically, that can make for an unusual session in terms of liquidity and cross-market price discovery, although there’s no dependable holiday rule for which way stocks will go. Since your forecast involves money fleeing equities for 10-year Notes and 30-year Bonds, I wonder whether the holiday complicates the timing of that rotation. Tuesday may be the first full session for the bond side of your forecast, and then Wednesday brings the CPI numbers. Might your fractal break and our anticipated topping process be looking at essentially the same event, separated by a day or two?
And let’s put the size of your call in perspective for readers: a 5.6% decline from Friday’s S&P close is more than 400 index points in just two trading sessions. That’s no ordinary correction. Our ChartPack still leaves room for a little more upside Monday and Tuesday, but the exhaustion warnings are very much alive.
Our longer-range view is actually simpler, and perhaps even more unsettling. We may be approaching a 1929 replay moment. Not that history must repeat on schedule, but the structural resemblance is enough to make us deeply cautious. Once a genuine liquidation begins, we see no dependable technical floor that guarantees where the selling stops. That’s why we’re perfectly willing to let somebody else collect the last nickel at the top.
So I think we’re largely agreed about the possible danger, even if our clocks differ on when the knife drops. You’re looking at the fractal timing; we’re watching the remaining upside, the exhaustion signals, and the possibility of a much larger unwind. Which, come to think of it, is one reason we’re hiding out here in the East Texas woods in a double-wide instead of trying to outsmart every tick on Wall Street. Sometimes the best market position is a good view of the approaching storm — from a safe distance.
God help us all. Does Quick Clot work on fiat currency?
IT’S 10/10. 10-Ten international is working the 10 meter bands. Hunt some DX today!
Do I get bonus points for my TEN-tec gear? The Omni vii or the Jupiter? lol 73
Only if you can make TEN contacts!
From a TENt?
AI is meant to imprison humanity – it is without question the largest marketing effort ever seen to do so. It will destroy water tables, ranch and a farm land. AI is for those to weak to think on their own and then can’t understand why it lies to the inquirer. It is destroying every significant public record of importance as they acquire libraries strip the binding load tge content and discard the written record.people are so stupid it’s funny. Gosh I can hardly wait to see how many nimrods walk around with Musk’s brain implant telling everyone how smart they are. Time is long past due to return the library book. It creates a fake dependency. When people are starving to death they can inquire to ther false god why they are hungry – now that’s an answer they won’t like.
Let’s take a break from investing, and talk music and video.
My off-air TV is still in working order, and I get a lot of stations. For ball games, it is still a champ. It is the last Samsung CRT model, and while it can take an external HDMI tuner feed with respectable resolution, it doesn’t do internet without an add-on box. I have done several boxes; I unplugged them all. If I really need to see internet streaming, I move to the internet-ready digital boxes.
One of the things I have found is that while Windows 11 still does a lot of comms, playing Android apps with a Bluestacks Android emulation box opens up a lot sources that have become very convoluted to do on Windows. Bluestacks works off the Google Play store. Sirius XM ( with a $6 or $7 subscription) runs best on Android. Tune In is available for streaming radio on Android. The Windows version of VLC still has Icecast (cntrl-l for the uninitiated), whereas I have never been able to pull up Icecast on the Android VLC version. Score one for MS. And if you stream an App on Bluestack, then it should either be on Fire Tablets, or available sideloaded off the PureAPK installer for the Fire tablet. The Pure APK installer seems to coexist fairly well with the Amazon Appstore. You just need to keep up with which program you are doing upgrades with. The Android appstore has a lot of apps hid out, it is usually easier to find them on Pure APK.
I tend to use the browser version of Amazon apps. The Sling app runs under Android.
Next frontier- running Android apps under Linux. It’s available, but I haven’t tried it yet.
Great point – we run our whole security cam/video network on Blue Stacks because the rotten manufacturers don’t recognize anything but the Phone Ranger anymore…
Android is well loved in India and other big global markets, and is probably the best bang for the buck for internet connectivity when paired with a discount carrier. This guarantees a huge installed base that is not likely to be displaced in the next decade. That makes for a good operating environment for code maintenance.
Mom always had a jar that she made up to sprinkle on meat..all meat..before roasting it…..She sprinkled it on every meat going into the oven..This is the recipe that I kind of remember..she would sprinkle this on everything…
All-purpose flour 1/2 cup
Brown sugar 1/4 cup
Table salt 2 tablespoons
Black pepper 1 tablespoon
Paprika 1 tablespoon
Garlic powder 1 tbsp
Onion powder 1 tbsp
Dry mustard 1 teaspoon
Ground sage 1/2 teaspoon
Ground ginger 1/4 teaspoon
1/2 tsp cayenne pepper
Get the G-90 and the Xiegu vg-4 . The tuner on the G-90 will match that ant. to 80m-you might not get optimum RX and TX on that band with that ant but the tuner will match anything-probably goes 10:1 with no prob. I can ALWAYS talk to the guys on The Brothers net no matter what I’m using for an ant on the G-90
Great little radio-I have one…..the only problem is no one knows how to pronouce it and all the guys at the club poo-poo it. Tried the “I can buy 3 or 4 G-90’s for what you guys paid for your 7300MK?? and run mine off a power tool battery at full power and u guys need to carry around ???? fr a power supply?” to no avail……still can’t convince them