The Crack-Pot Theory That May Work Out

image(Palestine, TX)  Sure is nice to be back in the saddle at the ranch where being the sole crazy person in the room is a lot easier.

We found in the Big City that many of the people we ran into were actually crazier than us.  And that’s going a stretch.

But not to worry – it will all make sense, once you understand my Crack-Pot theory that may work out.

I like charts because they just make sense.  Like the old saying (“The heat of the meat is inversely proportional to the angle of the dangle” I think was the firehouse expression), the slope of the curve (angle of the dangle) suggests this roast is getting near it’s final cooking stage.

Basically, recall that there were multiple weak periods in the period spanning 1906 to 1921.  Not unlike the tech wreck followed by the housing wreck in modern times. 

The Crack-Pot Theory says that unless we skip the pending summer/Greece/Iran Kool-Aid rally, we will likely be in a position by this fall to where the Fed will bump rates a tiny bit to keep the economy from overheating.

They will be wrong, of course.  Everyone wants to snore through the fact that we are now in a shopkeeper economy bubble and it’s moving with irresistible force due to the Digital Diaspora.

That is, anyone with a smartphone in any third world crap hole can now do customer service in America.  And there went our jobs.

That is to say, both of the jobs left after manufacturing left.

As of last week, the Aggregate Index was hovering right over the 1927 level.  In fact (and Peoplenomics subscribers know this stuff) this week will be about like Thanksgiving week of 1927 which means the market should go up as it tends to around holidays.

We tee off this morning with the Dow futures up 100 but we should (says the Crack-Pot’s theory, have a couple of more weeks of back and forthing before this puppy slides up.  But due to historical (and possibly hysterical) noise, the moves should be sideways through the rest of July and into August before lighting up.

Part of This is Greece

And that’s OK.  As one Reuters headline put it – nodding to the idea of burn-out:  Europe gives tired cheer to Greek rescue deal.

I couldn’t agree more, and so that’s why I’ll be taking my first nap of the day in few minutes.

Markets are a lot like capsizing a ship.  A passenger screams from the port side “Oh my God!  Look at the pod of killer whales!:”

And everyone runs over to that side of the ship – and the market goes one way.

They someone over on the starboard side yells “Holy crap!  An underwater alien spacecraft is following us!”

So everyone climbs to the other side, and likewise, the markets reverse course.

The people on point are people like Jim Rogers, George Soros and whoever else has 38-cents more than our combined life incomes.   (What ever happen ed to Meredith Whitney, BTW?  Her predictions were pretty damn good…between her and Bill Gross a person can get a sense of the madness of crowds…)

Gross’ columns can be found on the Janus website over here and are worth your time.  Whitney hasn’t surfaced yet since Kenbelle

Anyway, at some point, someone yells “The Lord of Hosts and 21 seraphim are hovering over the waves back over on the port side, and everyone including the people on point run over to that side and the ship  U.S.S. Economy capsizes.

It’s easier when all the lifeboats have already been used and there’s no life jackets left.  Used them in the “Oh my God, a housing collapse and too big to fail…” and what have you.

For now, we just cast nervous glances to either rail and wonder if everyone can play nicely while the final bubble comes along.

Poly Tricks

Scott Walker has stated the obvious.  Not that many care.  To me, too much like just another politicians who wants to lead from behind the power curve…Trump is the guy who is up front and screaming into the GOP lead. 

He’s also the only guy who might be able to out-spend she of whom we do not write.

Our friends up in Sheridan, WY have a warm spot for a Trump-Carson ticket…which might be a winner.

They are not the only ones thinking that-a-way.

Not Much

In  the way of real econ news this morning.  Minor bill auctions and such.

Tomorrow we get retail sales – which for the last year has really be the “How Auto Sales Have Kept the Country Solvent” report.

Some really good data, like industrial production comes Wednesday and then consumer prices Friday. 

Iran Deal in the Wings?

Mixed headlines here:  Some evidence that Iran purchased more equipment just last month that would press their arms program forward

Of course the Happy Talk Choir which is pushing the deal with Iran seems to have missed the chapter saying it’s OK to lie to infidels, which we is…

Nebraska Beats California Purchasing Power

And not just because we refueled there this weekend.

Actual reason is The Tax Foundation has a new report out showing which states get the most out of $100-bucks in the household kitty.

Go find your state and look at the purchasing power of $100 over here.

Texas is $103.41 while the kids in Washington get $96.90 worth, just to give you an idea.  While South Carolina returns an amazing $115 plus, California gives (look surprised here) $89 and change.

Sanctuary City Data

Is slowly coming out…almost like a Trump campaign strategy as the Washington Examiner report Revealed: 276 ‘sanctuary cities’ let 8,145 illegal offenders free in just 8 months, 17,000 total.

Aw, but what the heck…why not just make up laws on the basis of political correctness rather than data and federal border law?

Say, I don’t suppose anyone has mentioned that Sanctuary Cities are inherently discriminatory, have they?  Don’t mind old egalitarian George, though.

Gee, gosh, golly…what could go wrong?  I mean that hasn’t or isn’t…

Jade Helm Watch

Nothing to report yet…but lots of Texans are on the lookout

Comments

The Crack-Pot Theory That May Work Out — 8 Comments

  1. George, I don’t think the “angle of the dangle” thingy has anything to do with roasts. I know what the phrase means. So when you work in a roast, it paints a very strange visual in my head. Oh wait … were you equating angles and dangles with line charts. You, you, … pervert!

    Porn! Porn, I say! Every where I turn … PORN! So what’s next George? Gonna’ work in a Rubin vase with two dudes kissing and see that in a chart? You creative little devil you…

  2. Illegals have a FREE ride; and now they have a get in and out of jail card….too…FREE….disgusting what politics have done to the USA; when did it become okay to release a convicted murderer, rapist, assaulter, and DWI’er? Any citizen would be in jail for a whole long time and be out thousands of dollars hiring a lawyer. What has gone wrong with our country? Citizens should be OUTRAGED! You notice not a peep from Obama or his minions.

  3. Any body but Bush or Clinton – Trump will do – if for no other reason than the fun of it.

    your chart is about 7 years out of date.

    be ware of doing business with out of country folks – if you don’t ‘like’ what you get – you be out of jing or is that juan or yuan – or whatever other currency – ask me how to blow about $300 with NO recourse – oh yes, you can return it – just insure it for the ACTUAL value – about $30 – and if it then gets “lost” well, guess how much the insurance will pay? It’s not near the original $300.

    All kinds of stupid folks in Greece – I’d have let the EU and the IMF swing and choke on their IOU’s. So you see – it’s NOT OUR economy – it’s the banksters economy what’s really the danger. Not but what you are correct about our servantude economy with no manufacturing to speak of – just service jobs – some pay pretty good – lawn maintenance for those that are working two or even three jobs a week and ain’t got the time to mow their own yard.

    The “infidels” may believe the lies leaking from the White House and their minions – but seems to me that it’s going to get a cold greeting from the fools on the hill’s building – not a bad thing this time – perhaps – although with McConnell – you do know he is on the White House best friends list.

  4. I won’t share again. Politics and religions being what they are. Bwhahahahahhahaahaa! I think this is the first time ever I told anyone I was voting for. Most of the time I write in Scooby-Doo because we all know what he works for.. so it’s not a secret.

    Have a wonderful day.

  5. No, not Donald Trump . . . so how many times has he declared bankruptcy?
    While it could be argued that presidents have people to give advice – he’s too much of a blowhard to follow anyone’s good counsel . . .

    • I’m sorry but you had better hope Trump beats bush. Hilary doesn’t stand a chance against bush in the election. She is dryer Priscilla queen of the desert and a much bigger drag. Berry Sandars has more flip flop ‘ s than mitzi’s dress. And I don’t know if you Rememeber this or not. But both Jeb and Hilary recently said they would have invaded Iraq and Afghanistan after 9/11 in the news. The only wepons of mass destruction seen durring Jr’s presidency were the formation of Home land security, the TSA, Iraq and Afghanistan war, 9/11, 3 days stall by fema stall to help the folks in New Orleans, and the biggest bank heist/ corporate bail out in America history. Hilary already was schooled by Bill with Waco, so she knew how to play benghzi. Lest we forget.

      Last time I checked the US is on the verge of bankruptcy so who better than someone who knows how that kind of experiance and knows how to be successful through it. Correct me if im wrong. I don’t Rememeber hearing if Trump ever took a bailout.. let alone such travistys listed above.

      Trump might be the ultimate play by the powers that be, but it’s a damn sight better than the alternative ‘ s being presented.

    • Blowhard or not, this is a reaction of the Universe. The people that we elect to run our country has not been considerate of peoples rights. When so many common people are under duress due to greed and oppression, the universe will cause an extreme counter effect. Trump is just the reaction of extreme to battle the extreme. It will only get worse until the playing field is leveled for all people. Right now illegal laws are being passed effective creating a “Caste” system based on people crotch values. that is wrong.