A number of people have asked me privately to explain where we are in the parabolic blow-off in digimoney, especially Bitcoin.
As you know, it did look like the BTCs were going to the moon, or $3,000, but then a funny thing happened.
So let’s take a look at a couple of chars because there is a certain self-similarity between ALL market bubbles, whether you’re talking our favorite “air money” or something as delicious as tulip bulbs…
Here’s how the BTC chart (www.bitcoincharts.com hat tip) looks since December:
Now look closely at where we are in this chart. We are in what would be called in Bubble Lingo – if there was such a language – a Great Hesitation.
Now let me pull out a chart of the U.S. Stock Market Bubble going into the summer of 1929 for you:
See the area in Yellow I have circled on the 1929 track? This is where I think (but this is not investment advice!) BTC’s are right now.
Once we get past the next week, or three, I would expect that the BTCs will zoom up into the mid to late August period, when the whole financial complex should end it’s diabetic sugar rush and set up for the near-brush with death that will roll out over the next year.
Something on the order of $3,150 would be ideal from a modeling standpoint. But we shall see…
This tells us that all the Trump probing and such, well THAT will be quiet until this summer (late Aug) when the dems will be raising hell with wave three of the coup attempt and with all the libs on the Mueller witch hunting squad, I’m sure we will have a delightful fall.
Just think of it: War in Korea, a Salem Witch Trial in Congress, a Collapsing Economy…why it just doesn’t get much better for the short-side players who manage the down-side of live in a disciplined way.
Not that we’re here to get RICH on the misery to come, but a 39% gain (which our Peoplenomics Aggregate model back-tested for 2008-2009) would be fine with us.
As we drive the “get away car” to our TreasuryDirect account to avoid the Bail-Ins that will likely follow when the Too Big To Fail card is turned over on the taxpayers, yet again.
Fortunately, for those of us who read history, Greed is not only powerful as a financial aphrodisiac, but it is semi-predictable, too. Which is how I’ve come to describe our Peoplenomics.com site as “Viagra for the Wallet.”
The “Electrical Nature” of Markets
With the markets set to open higher this morning and they rocked it in Europe last night. Germany’s market is up the equivalent of 170 Dow points and the Hang Seng in Asia was up what would be about 230 by the Dow.
And with the week ahead in the US looking tame to lame in terms of data, why would we be having this discussion? Well…
There was this fascinating alert that popped into my email this morning:
“Geomagnetic conditions measured by Dourbes have reached major storm levels, K = 7. However NOAA Kp has remained at Kp = 2. It is unclear if this is a measurement anomaly. The solar wind speeds are currently registered at 550 km/s with interplanetary magnetic field values close to 4 nT, confirming the suspicion that this is a measurement anomaly. There are currently two coronal holes approaching the West limb, but are not in a favourable position to be the source of the enhanced geomagnetic conditions. If the K index remains at enhanced levels for a sustained period a further presto will be issued and the cause investigated further.
Honestly, we don’t know.
But whenever we get a note like this, we begin to look at markets with a slight tingle of anticipation.
Back in 1998, or so, a doctor by the name of Robert Becker wrote a WONDERFUL book on point:
In it, you will get all kinds of information about the subtle (and not so) ways that electrical influences change our behaviors around.
So, naturally, when we get any kind of solar activity – especially something new and different-looking,, like this morning’s alert, we go into studious watch-mode.
Other things influence the market, too. Stephen J. Peutz has done a lot of work on market-related topics, such as the influence of the full moon on timing of market crashes – and while expensive, $65, his …
…is something to read if you are trying to figure out exactly when the sky might be falling.
As long as we’re on point, I should also put in a plug for some of my recent work on the Peoplenomics side of thing, especially the recent article on the biphasic market solar cycles. Essentially, I argue the data in long wave economics suggests that it may be a Sun-driven market cycle of 11-11.5 years that drove Clement Juglar to cite the 11-year (Juglar) cycle in economics. The Wikipedia entry, please?
The Juglar cycle is a fixed investment cycle of 7 to 11 years identified in 1862 by Clément Juglar. Within the Juglar cycle one can observe oscillations of investments into fixed capital and not just changes in the level of employment of the fixed capital (and respective changes in inventories), as is observed with respect to Kitchin cycles. 2010 research employing spectral analysis confirmed the presence of Juglar cycles in world GDP dynamics.
What other researchers seem to have missed (but not us, no sir) is that the solar/stock market relationship may be driven by solar activity as measured by sunspots… BUT it is apparently moderated by the solar AP Index.
All of which causes us to expect a rip-snorter of a market rally, at least early this week and with a lack of economic news in the (lazy) MSM…you can be forgiven for reading either Becker or Peutz at work.
What the MSM Ain’t Saying
Two snapshot of data to ponder since everyone knows we use West Coast container traffic flows as a real useful economic indicator that no one else seems to pay much mind to:
Containers through the Port of Long Beach were up 12% in May, but down 1.3% year-on-year (YoY).
Port or Seattle – part of the NW Port Alliance which is more Bigger government – hasn’t been able to post their May data to their website in a timely manner, but their through April data showed container growth of about 1.2%.
Port of Oakland looks like 4% growth, but hard telling and their “downloadable spreadsheet” was uselessly not updated with 2017 data. Port PR people make HOW MUCH MONEY??
But the Big Kahuna in all this is the Port of Los Angeles which is reporting up 8.5% for the year-to-date. And gee, even with all that work going on, they still manage to public readable and timely statistics.
Toss in the Baltic Dry Cargo Index at 848 (lower end of range) then drop in the Fed rate hike, mix thoroughly, and you can make a case for euphoria peaking late summer in the U.S.
Things in Syria are on the front burner this morning as A U.S. Warplane Shot Down a Syrian Jet. Here’s Why That’s a Big Deal.
News and Such-wise
We can hardly wait for the Climate Change marketeers to ramp up on their claims related to the Portugal forest fire disaster which has already killed something like 65 people. This morning Portugal forest fire: 12 survive by hiding in a water tank.
Death toll in the London fire still adding as Grenfell Tower fire: Seventy-nine people feared dead.
Managing Without Data
We see a positive sign as Trump to meet with tech CEOs on government overhaul.
Problem is, as I explained in the Coping section this morning, is really two-fold.
Sure the bureacrazy needs to be hot-swapped. But Congress?
Biggest group of flim-flammers ever. They meet, appear to actually do things, but when comes to benchmarks, outcomes, metrics and such?
NOTHING USEFUL to speak of.
The poor get some buy-offs, but the higher ed lobby is still over-charging for what could easily be a free, universal online college system for less than the endowment fund of any of the Ivy Leaguers and such…
So sure, nice Trump is working the government overhaul angle, but the truth runs a little deeper and more intractable: We have monetized government and that leads ultimately to totalitarianism or financial collapse. And the embeds now have their Salem Plan for Trump, so change? That’s about all we will have left, and damn little of that. A few cents on the dollar.