The US market is set to open on the up side this morning, at least that’s the way it looks on the way to the airport. My brother-in-law who holds down the fort when we travel, can hardly wait for us to leave.
As Ures truly predicted, the Fed did not raise rates and got the lingo just right, so the Dow flipped up 180 points Thursday and will hang on to that gain today.
Amazingly, both our Peoplenomics™ Trading Model, and our Replay of 1921 to 1929 blow-off top scenario is still holding together.
This being the case, Gold has come back to life – and I’m expecting the “yeller dog” will pop to $2,500 or better in the next couple of years. And with it, silver should hit $80. But, we shall see. After that, in the great Heap, it will likely drop to under $1,000.
The main thing I’m trying to sort out is when to “sell at the top” and then adopt a minimalist lifestyle for a couple of years (perhaps even selling Uretopia Ranch) and moving into a rental condo, or some such for a couple of years while the froth blows out of the economy.
I mean think about it: If we get a stock market blow-off to Dow 30,000 or better in the next two years, wouldn’t it make sense to sell off as much as you could at the tippy-top of the asset bubble and sock it away in something like inflation adjusted bonds in order to hang on to purchasing power and then rebuy positions with way better prices at the bottom to come, in say 2020-2022?
It sure looks that way to me. YMMV.
Thing is, I can do OK on short-term trades, now and then. But the value of the long wave economics perspective is in making the right LONG TERM decisions. Big ones likje when to be in and when to be out of property.
Real Estate is often an 11 year cycle. 2007 + 11 equals when?
Gold in 2003 at $273 was decent, silver in 2005 At $7 was OK, too. Rural property when the land was $3,000 an acre and now it’s north of $5,000 an acre…those big, long-term trends are where you can make your money.
With us going up to see the kids, one of the agenda items we’ll be talking turkey about is real estate. I think about here is a fine time to lock in low rates because the Fed may have to raise rates down the road.
As bad as the national balance sheet is, the hype, shuck, and jive that will accompany the TPP (which notice is being shoved down our throats despite public outrage and inexcusable secrecy on the TPP crap?) may result in a momentary blip of upward market action.
Republicans and demoncrats alike have sold the country down the road to corporate masters.
The same kind of “juice” that Slippery Bill (Clinton) got out of NAFTA, may accrue, but very short term. Yet millions of jobs left thanks to NAFTA and how soon we forget. And remember it was a Clinton who ordered the sale of all that computer technology to China, too. With friends like this…
So no, you can’t trust anyone in politics.
But as the week rolls down, we are pleased to report the world is still here, and at current persistence levels, may allow us to survive a while longer.
At least until Monday.
Just as the End Of Worlders may be frustrated with our muddle through another couple of years view (which will turn out to be correct – again), there’s always whiners around when the going gets tough.
Take for example Fearless Leader. Whining about political gridlock.
It reminds me of my time coaching people in sales. I would get sorry sob stories – one after the other – from salespersons who didn’t make a sale.
Yet the truth of sales is the same as politics. If you find what people really want, and you present a convincing case and actually show genuine benefit from what you’re selling, people will line up to give you money.
Since people are not lining up on both sides of the aisle, Ure’s 2-Bit Analysis is that either a) he’s a terrible salesman or b) he’s selling a bad product.
Of course the third possibility is that he’s trying to lead from behind a teleprompter, in which case it’s both a) and b) and we’re going to muddle on for a couple of more years.
Frankly, I see the long wave final blow off rally roughly coinciding with the approach of Obama’s waning time in office and the prospects of hiring a better salesman to sell us what we want… a country which can stand on its own two feet and which is not being sold out to the global trade cabal.
But that will become obvious over time. The only question is who can Trump Hill?
Selling the Wrong Product
Part of the reason America has soured on the Obamanation is reports like this: No one has been fired for releasing 65,000 criminal illegals onto the streets of America.
People don’t want to buy PROBLEMS. People buy what? Solutions.
It’s idiocy to try to sell the wrong product. People have to be offered something they genuinely want to buy! Good grief, isn’t this obvious yet?
People ask me all the time “How stupid are Americans?” I always tell ‘em it is not the average American who is stupid. It’s the politicians who pretend to lead.
We just consistently fall for false advertising. Where’s the FTC when we need ‘em?
Enough clear thinking, though.
Let’s turn on the toob and see what passes for news and what is being used to grab people by their emotional shorts and twist them up one way and the other and turn brother against brother, shall we?
Oh, yes, here we go: The kid on psych drugs who killed 9 people in South Carolina.
All the emotional elements: race, drugs, youth…yep, this is a fine distractions, but since I’ve been telling you to expect a Big Distraction to come rolling down the pike, does anyone besides me see this as a little too convenient? To keep people from noticing TPP is coming anyway and corporations are pulling on the leash on government harder than ever?
The only thing that could possibly make this story even more obvious would be to find a convenient copy of Catcher in the Rye. But the media is too dumb to ask, and officialdom too smart to tell…at least so far.
Written up over here. Keep tab s on this, it’s a coming hot spot of conflict.