Working Up to Jobs, Global Decline Due

Over on the Peoplenomics side of the house we keep a very interesting chart for subscribers that’s updated twice a week.

As I mentioned in the Wednesday report this week, we are in an odd divbergence globally:  The US market has been dropping and the global has been rising.  Figuring this can’t persist very long, our guess has been the bearish view that the global market should fall.

Indeed, the only market of those in our Aggregate Index that didn’t run in the red last night was Australia.  This also has the potential to resolve another conflict:  This is where our long-term global indicator has been bullish whille the US indicator has been negative.   We’re standing-by for resolution.

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About the Job Cuts Report

Just out from Challenger, Gray, and Christmas:

Job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers fell 40.2 percent in April to 36,081, the second lowest monthly total for the year, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

April’s total belies a trend for increased cuts after announcements in March hit a 23-month high of 60,357. March’s total was the highest since April 2016, when 64,141 job cuts were announced.

“Most of the cuts in March came from a single announcement, but an increase in large-scale job cut announcements could be on the horizon,” said John Challenger, Chief Executive Officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

“With rising wages, near full employment, and solid job creation, we may be in for a market correction over the upcoming months,” added Challenger.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, compensation costs rose 2.7 percent over the last year. Employers added 326,000 jobs in February and 103,000 in March.

One of these days someone will uttery the phrase “wage-driven inflation” and the smoke in the theatre will be smelled.

The Federal “offishul” numbers at this time tomorrow.  Bring popcorn.

Other Fresh Data?

International Trade:

And Productivity & Costs:  Lasbor Departement press release:

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 0.7 percent during the first quarter of 2018, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 2.8 percent and hours worked increased 2.1 percent. (All
quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, productivity increased 1.3 percent, reflecting a 3.6-percent increase in output and a 2.2-percent increase in hours worked. (See tables A1 and 2.)

Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index of real output by an index of hours worked by all persons, including employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.

Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2018, reflecting a 3.4-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 0.7-percent increase in productivity. BLS calculates unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor productivity. Increases in hourly compensation tend to increase unit labor costs, and
increases in output per hour tend to reduce them. When the change in consumer prices was taken into account, real hourly compensation declined 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2018. Unit labor costs increased 1.1 percent over the last four quarters.”

Throw in the ADP job number from Wednesday and the US jobs data could be anticlimatic tomorrow.

Rudy Does Hannity

The Rudy (Trump defense team) appearance on Sea Hannity’s show last night seems to be the only story on Drudge  this morlning.

The key thing we found in the Daily Beast version of the story is that Rudy says that campaign money was not used to pay off Stormy Daniels.

With everyone having “lawyered-up” on this, I come back to an interesting legal question:

It seems to me that if a person demands money for their silence that could be construed as either extortion or exaction.

In the Daniels case, I am still not following how involving lawyers as intermediaries in any way “uncolors” an extortion act – or what seems to be such.

In murder, if you farm that out to a third party, you still get the needle.  So have extortion or exactly walks around this seems specious.

Greater legal minds than mine, lol.

And then there’s the fallout from Mueller’s Hooker and Fishing Expedition: ‘God damn you to hell,’ Michael Caputo tells Senate intel panel.  Damn shame the whole senate didn’t get his wrath.  They are all complicit swamp critters.

Can I vote, yet?  They gotta go.

Kardashian for President

A good while back, we were in mid rant one morning when the keyboard spewed that since politics is more about name familiarity than competence or qualifications, it would only be a matter of time until one of the Kardashians ran for president.

Given the impossible mental fog presisting in pharmacologically-impaired ‘Merica, the Kardashian would crush all opponents.  Social media’s wrecking the world…but I digress.  That was then.

Was it a joke?

Well, not so much, now.

We direct your attention to Vanity Fair’s article today about how “Kim Kardashian Is Teaming Up with Jared Kushner for an Actually Good Cause.”

Repeat after me:  Name Familiarity Matters!  And no much else does.  And social media lowers the barriers to access with the most dangerous symbol in all of modern tech.

#

Making Up Money in Depression II

Let’s assume you understand the following economic facts.  First, deflation is afoot in the world.  Second, the G-20 is trying to “out print” deflation by flooding everywhere with paper money.  Third, all this paper money looks like there’s inflation, not delfation and it’s a clearly modulated use of Modern Monetary Theory as pioneered by that master of economics Robert Mugabe who turned a whole nation into trillionaires.

Good.

Now study this:  ECB making ‘substantial’ inflation progress.

Hand me the pipe and the Zippo Deluxe.

Just as another example of runaway megalomania, here’s more from the cast of dancing clowns in Brussel’s: EU legislature wants Venezuela elections to be postponed.

Perhaps I missed the EU annexation of Venezuela?  Venezuela needs to tell the EU (along with their two-bit commie leaders) to take a flying foxtrot uniform….

The EU still hasn’t gotten over their imperialist colonialism.  Slowest damn learners on the planet.  It’s like Texas claiming political superiority and telling Canada when to vote.

But this is how the socialist/left operates.  Sticks in their nose in “for the good of the people.”  PC when they do it, paternalistic colonialism for others.  Gads.

Hawking’s Last Paper

Seems to begin to bound the previously expressed unbounded version of the multiverse.

So many worlds, so many dimensions….

Trade Talks Resume

Trump praises China’s Xi as U.S. team arrives for trade talks.

Markets watching these trade talks closely. So are we.

Future’s down 100 on the Dow and my sense is there’s a lot more downside ahead…but that’s just a bear talkin’.  We don’t offer financial advice…you pick your own hemlock.  We’re just edjucatin…

Moron the ‘morrow.

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George Ure
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11 thoughts on “Working Up to Jobs, Global Decline Due”

  1. On the Stormy story…You have it somewhat wrong. She didn’t Demand money…She was first offered money to shut up. That’s bribery. Bribery is a gain to ilicit advantage. There is a form of bribery called graft. Graft is an advantage which one person by reason of his peculiar position of superiority, influence or trust extracts from another. This is a federal offense and is punishable by up to 15 years in prison.

    • “Graft” would be if a gov official wanted cash or prizes to perform (or not) something for the payer. Such as exceptions to codes, awarding contracts, not writing citations, losing files, etc.

      So for it to be “graft” she would have had to pay him, when he was a government employee and she would have had to receive a benefit in some way via his actions as a government employee.

      “Bribery” involves paying someone to act outside the rules or laws their position requires, both in government and business.

      Given this payoff occurred ten years ago if I’m up to speed, you would have to assume Trump was planning a political career ten years ago to imply “ilicit advantage”.

      Otherwise, he’s paying her off to avoid public embarassment, which I question that would violate any laws.

    • Well the problem is we don’t know the whole story,hard for me to believe Trump or an agent of Trump ran to her telling her not to mention that little affair, and then offering shut up money,I would soon think that she let Trump know that it would take some green to zip her lips,or hush money but blackmail would be the term we used years ago.!!!

    • I don’t see that it was bribery or blackmail. It was a contract. How that contract came about I don’t know and neither do you (or you would be singing your little heart out) The hooker’s law critter along with Donald,s law critter apparently worked out an agreement which she subsequently violated?? go figure. I’m sure there is someone who will complain because I used the word hooker but it’s been my belief that a hooker is a person who gets paid for sex, a sex worker and I do believe she qualifies.

    • Nice try Mark, the porn star agreed to be paid to keep her mouth shut. That’s a hard thing to do though considering… but I digress… a non-disclosure is something done all the time and very legal. Not until she got solicited by never Trumpers did she decide to violate that agreement. You idiots keep thinking you can “get” Trump. Just be very careful when there is a never Democrat in the White House and laws are broken and the intelligence arm of the government decides to go after them. You’ll be howling like stuck pigs. There are constitutional issues that are being trampled here that if they allow this to continue will put our constitutional republic at risk. But that’s what the left has wanted for some time!!

      • There have always been never Dems…Bill Clinton already went through that. Got impeached as a result. Obama had to have his citizenship questioned. I didn’t Vote for Clinton and only Obama once….so don’t paint me into a Lib corner. I am MOR…a do what’s right person. Trump just isn’t the right guys for the job…that’s all. I like some…not all…of the GOP policies that have been passed this far. I just don’t think the guy in office with a penchant for lying every other sentence derserves any credit for it. Congress, his often changing Cabinet…yes. Trump no way. He is not smart enough.

      • As Isaac Lidsky has said, accept that life is a game of poker. While there are certain things you can do to increase your odds of winning, a large part of each hand is completely out of your control. Would you fight the cards dealt in a given hand, arguing that it’s not fair or that you want a re-shuffle? Of course not. While life is certainly higher stakes than poker, you just have to accept that what happens, happens. Even with death!
        The “Blame Game” you rely on to justify your perceptions to be your truth..is just another “Winning at Poker” book you bought to keep you from being run out of “the game”, broke..Again!

    • No offense, but I don’t care very much about ‘global or aggregates,’ because my issues are with what can I trade. My favorite is the Russel 2000 for reasons too long (for me!) to elaborate on. TNA for taking long positions TZA for going short the Russel 2000. What’s missing so far is the person with discipline to follow the rules. ;-) Caso cerrado.

  2. It seems to me that if a person demands money for their silence that could be construed as either extortion or exaction.

    Law is a funny thing. Say I think you owe me money AND I think you committed a crime. If I say “If you don’t pay me, I’ll report the crime.” that is a crime. If I sue you and because discovery is done outside the watchful eye of the public record I send you evidence of the crime AND you settle it is all nice and legal.

    Remember: It is the Just-us system. And you are not part of the “us”.

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