Sorting out the future, are we? Well, seems simple enough. But it’s not.
One reason is uncertainty about China. On the positive side, the report that Futures Flat After China Invites Top US Trade Negotiators For More Talks could be seen as an encouraging sign.
Yet, as of this morning, we are back to wondering if this (is it a small iii of a Wave 5???) could be about to roll down to a support zone and thus set up the final blow-off top into Christmas?
This chart may – or may not – have any predictive value. But, we are in a position where at least several weeks of “trade hype” could be unwound. We’ll just have to wait and see.
Now, if you were a high-roller with $40-bucks for an annual subscription to Peoplenomics.com (our in-depth side where we focus on only one or two “just ahead” kind of issues). you’d remember in the 1929 blow-off there was a short “sideways period about in this area before the final run up. I won’t spoil the rest, just let’s let it go with yeah, a rally is possible.
All depends on Trade, Trumpeachment, and Traffic.
“ OK, I get trade and the Trumpeachment, but what do you mean traffic?”
Things in motion, dear reader. Movement. Activity. Human worker bees.
Two examples: And I think you’ll see why I sure wouldn’t advise the Donald to hype “stock market” any more. I think this sucker has “clay feet” after reading this week’s national traffic reports.
See if this doesn’t stand your hair on end:
“For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 501,249 carloads and intermodal units, down 8.4 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending November 16 were 239,647 carloads, down 8.9 percent compared with the same week in 2018, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 261,602 containers and trailers, down 7.9 percent compared to 2018.
One of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2018. It was petroleum and petroleum products, up 1,357 carloads, to 13,977. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2018 included coal, down 13,610 carloads, to 72,611; metallic ores and metals, down 4,729 carloads, to 19,017; and nonmetallic minerals, down 3,069 carloads, to 30,184.”
We don’t expect it to get much better, since the grain harvest numbers may yet disappoint this year. Agriculture.com is warning about the “Slow start to the 2020 Wheat Crop” and The Pig Site says “Daily US grain report: US farmers continue to struggle gathering their crops, grain futures firm.”
True confessions: I get a lot more from The Pig Site most days than Daily Beast‘s of other sorts. One class seems mainly political while the other tracks things like “prices firming” which matters more than all the politics in the world. Politics doesn’t put food on the table, unless you’re Hunter Biden, know what I mean?
Sure seems to me like the GOP has hitched its wagon to a turd just waiting to ..ah….er….you know. Though markets could keep up the illusion through year end.
“Sole indicators…Ure focused on Outliers, maybe?”
No chance, Bucko. Not like that. We also have the latest Port Data, to consider.
Port of Long Beach was down 7.4 percent last month inbound while exports were up 9.8%. Over the viaduct, Port of Los Angeles reported loaded inbound was down 19.15% and exports also down 19.27%
Strategic advice to Trump? Keep you Trade Cud Low.
“Where’s the Stock Rally From?”
Mars? The “usual suspects” I’m afraid:
Stock Buy-backs: #1 con and reason for a Depression to come. Reason? Research is down and buy-backs are up. Compensation managers (*and boards of directors) are self-serving pricks during greed frenzies like this one. Prompting the Financial Times to spill how “Managers are enriching themselves at shareholders’ expense —Stock buyback and issuance programmes are an overlooked transfer of wealth.”
I’m not going to take you deep on this. Just should be obvious that companies ought to be investing in hot, new, gotta have it product lines (which comes from R&D) rather than this hopeless orgy of mahogany foxhole greed and wealth concentration going around.
A second reason is a lot of X-er’s think they are God’s gift to investing because they began to buy stocks in 2009 and, frankly, any idiot could have bought the market and stayed long from the April 2009 lows and made money. It’s such a fad that even former hyped things (Bitcoins, remember them?) are back under $8,000 ($7,871 when I looked).
You know, it’s just laughable, this whole “crypto flippo.” We kept hearing “Bit coins are limited so they just have to go UP…” goes the frequent spew. Truth? Can you handle it? What the Bit-zealots don’t tell you is that anyone can start up a “currency” of their own. There are no barriers to entry. In the Grown Up’s world of investing, no barriers means unlimited competition. Simple as that.
Don’t believe me? Once there was A Crypto. 2009. Bitcoin. Now there are 1,600 (that’s a 2018 count). So when I need some comic relief, I go play YouTube videos and podcasts of self-proclaimed geniuses in crypto-land. It’s as stupid as the shortage of pink Tulips during Tulipmania in th 1600’s…but don’t let me ruin your party.
I’m just saying anyone touting cryptos is either dishonest or a fool. Doesn’t mean that they can’t have a good run and take others to the cleaners for a while. Such things, however, in the unerring movement of the “Hidden Hand” of economics, tend to resolve in much the same way as Russian Roulette. You win…until you don’t.
(After my tears of laughter dry, and I’m up from rolling on the floor, I write down incomprehensible strings of characters and declare myself a ga-zillionairre in Urecoins. Because, the utter truth of the cryptos is their ONLY value is that someone else doesn’t have a number. (My incomprehensible numbers are on paper, so unlike Bitcrypts, they will work in a power outage…)
Now, you could ask a simple question here: “ Who is less honest? The CEO who is buying back their own stock to scam on options (which will be taxed at the 20% long term rate level, which is why Ure argues there’s no justification for long-term tax breaks since we’re swimming in dark pools of capital as my friend Howard explained) or are the Coinsters less honest???”
Hmmm… pick-pockets or bank robbers…which soul weighs more? See how the question is pointless? Bad, tainted, greedy souls are just that. The expression of that Darkness doesn’t specifically matter much, does it?
Ray Dalio says the global economy is heading for a ‘great sag’. I call it “hitting the fan” but you’re tracking, I trust.
Oh boy… Back to the snews…
What’s Worth Knowing
I still haven’t seen a high crime of misdemeanor out of the Shiff-show/’Circus yet. Even if the money was held, so what? Obama held money… It got spent and there was no stopwatch in the bill…so WTF, am I right? Sheesh.
This leads to the next logical question: If Trump doesn’t win in 2020, who will be the democrat I will be whistleblowing on the day aftrer the election? Guidance from the other democrat circus (ring 2). Dems unite against POTUS, spar over qualifications for WH.. Maybe one not in the debate…like Bloomberg? (ring 3)? Hmmm…
Say, did you see the Man arrested at airport for impersonating pilot. Maybe Adam Schiff could be arrested for impersonating a congressman. Coup leading is illegal, isn’t it? USC 2385? With no impeachable crime being charged, like that demo lawyer said, it’s a coup. Ought to be treated like one. We gotta wonder why is Bill Barr snoozing through it?
Also, another one the MSM will unreport: Ukrainian MP Claims $7.4 Billion Obama-Linked Laundering, Puts Biden Group Take At $16.5 Million. Where will Hunter’s child support following the DNA test come from? Oh my…
Also on the legal front Nebraska the first state to help Trump’s quest for citizenship data. We hope Texas follows suit.
Censorship is back: Nudity and sex scenes guidance launched for UK directors. Britain, unable to get out from under the thumb of the EU is being pushed into ever-more thought control, as we see it. Government just loves to tell people what to think. Unless your name is Andrew, who the FBI wants to talk with about Epstein…
Hype and BS are never-ending: As “Climate Emergency” Is Oxford Dictionaries’ Word of the Year 2019. Seriously?
Sorry to say, even the once reliable O.E.D. has now begun to fall over in the high winds of P.C. and DSMD (digitally-spread mental disorders).
Write when yrou get rich,