If the premarket/futures are right, the Dow should dump about 100 points around the time of the open today. In addition, the first target level of support for the S&P 500 around 2,120 looms as possible, too.
If the market takes a hard bounce up from these levels, then we will rally into next Spring, at least more’n likely. Left-field events (other than democrats, lol) are always a risk.
On the other hand, take out 2,120 in a definitive way (like a close tomorrow around 2,100) and we could be headed for the next major level down which is around 1,980 on the S&P.
So what’s driving it all?
This morning a list of competing theories we’ve been jotting down along the way.
1.One reason could be because both last Saturday and again yesterday, I explained to our Peoplenomics.com subscribers how triangle and wedge formations work.
2.A second possibility is that I have been short with a triple-levered ETF since (here’s the time stamp from my trading account) 09/01/16 | 12:27 PM ET.
3.A third (and more plausible to skeptics) reason is that the U.S. dollar is strengthening. We need to subdivide this into several observations:
a. When the US dollar strengthens, it doesn’t take ass many buffed-up bucks to buy the underlying assets represented by stocks. Over the last 50-years, we have made this weird transition to where stocks act as much like a real estate investment (except as shares of market) than cash-generators. Picture a world when a half-price dollar would double the nominal “price” of the market, but in reality it’s really net neutral in after-tax purchasing power.
b. Then we have to admit that the 10-year bond, which was up to 1.78 may be telling us something no one wants to think about – yet: That the long-term decline in bond yields which has been in play since the 1980’s (chart here) is over and done with. As this occurs what happens? Well, the USA begins to look like it will pay a little more for the use of money than the rest of the world, so money will flock to the USA…
c. As money rolls into dollar-denominated assets, we should see one massive final run up in markets until we peak out in 2017. After next fall this time (at the latest in my work) it will be time to start wearing pampers because the you know what will be scared out of people when the global financial House of Cards begins to fall apart. This leads to a Greater Depression bottom in the 2020-2024 period and that will end with global war featuring China and/or Russia. War on this scale will do several important things.
i. It will give the criminals who pyramided compound interest to the moon “cover” – they will blame “America’s enemies” – not a new trick as any Japanese-American will tell you.
ii. It will reduce the global population by whatever the exchanged nukes do.
iii. It will thereby destroy much of the excess production capacity that exists globally, thereby “turning under the current crops” and providing fresh ground for economic re-seeding.
iv. It will give a new class of gov-jackers reasons and excuses to further belittle and suspend Constitutional rights, thereby making the US more restrictive and closed than even Russia and China. We, in so many words, are due to reprise the role of Germany in WW II. Except instead of marching on Poland, it will be Ukraine, but that’s a nit.
v. It also solves the unsustainable debt issues related to blowing up pension funds and the massive theft of Social Security assets from the laughably named “trust fund” – which has all been “repurposed” into interagency debt and such useless paper, easily annulled by the shills on the Hill.
Now just wait for the market to open. When I get to my target return on my personal money (8% per month) I will blow out of the short, flip long when it looks about right (if 2,120 holds) and then ride it up to the peak in 2017. Again, triple-levered, but with my hands on the emergency back-up parachute.
In the meantime, gold and silver continue to look stalled. That should continue in limbo because the criminal congress (with the Obama fan club led by turncoat Paul Ryan) has pushed back Obamacare hikes until AFTER THE ELECTION so you won’t feel the yoke of financial oppression until it’s too late to do a damn thing about it.
Not that you don’t know in advance. I just told you.
I think it was Elvis Presley who said it best of all:
With a track record like this, I can’t figure out why there isn’t a line 2-miles long to sign up for Peoplenomics.com. But, as I was talking to a fellow Wednesday, he said “There’s a lot of talkers in the world.”
Had to agree.
Why people would sit around and write internet content to make the likes of Zuke Markerberg rich, or go to casinos before they learn how to really invest is a mystery we won’t solve this morning.
Maybe American’s really ARE incredibly stoopid (sic) and deserving of Her Highness.
With that as background, see if you can hear the “silent dog whistles” in the headlines here…
Import and Export Prices
News release du jour::
Imports All Imports: U.S. import prices resumed an upward trend in September, increasing 0.1 percent, after a 0.2- percent decline in August. Prior to August, import prices had risen in each of the previous 5 months, advancing 3.1 percent between February and July. Despite those increases, import prices continue to decline on a 12-month basis, falling 1.1 percent between September 2015 and September 2016. The 1.1 percent decrease was the smallest drop on an over-the-year basis since the index fell 0.3 percent in August 2014.
Exports All Exports: The price index for overall exports increased 0.3 percent in September, as rising nonagricultural prices more than offset declining agricultural prices. The advance followed a 0.8-percent drop the previous month and resumed an upward trend dating back to April. U.S. export prices fell 1.5 percent for the year ended in September, the smallest 12-month decline since the index decreased 0.7 percent in October 2014.
Market is not amused. Down 120 when I checked.
Department of News Control
We read with some interest the reports that the Clinton’s may have unacknowledged black grandchildren. This as the outfits like CNN have allegedly put the kibosh on coverage of the issue.
Remember the words of late legendary pitchman Billy Meyers? But Wait! There’s MORE!
We have more comparison shopping this morning between Google and Bing on the Clinton step-son issue of Danny Williams.
News.Google is playing hard on the women accusing Trump and Drudge is all over “Trump Hate Rages.”
Uh-huh. Yuppers. Just another day here in the third grade.
Obama’s Wars: Release ISIS Terrorists
The Nobel peace price winner who had kept two wars going and has started three more, apparently has yet another bad idea:
You were wondering why I refer to him as president Useless? Sheesh.
Peace: Still Blowin’ in the Wind
The Nobel Committee did get one thing right: Bob Dylan, legendary songwriter/composer wins the Nobel for Literature.
First time I heard Dylan was at the home of an alleged communist party union organizer back in the 1960’s. I knew the kids and yep, the dad was one of the people investigated by HUAC. The FBI would drop by now and then for coffee and to check on people’s comings and goings at their house.
Still, got to admit that Dylan nailed how the world really operates in his “Masters of War:”…
The good news about Dylan getting the Nobel?
It opens the way for another great artist who called out the bullshit of war to receive an award for this little ditty:
No comments on who’s playing Lead Qatar, please. We try to be a little more highbrow around here.
Which gets your local news-jay to offering a final thoughtful from Dire Straits.
Drop by tomorrow morning. We’ll have the Friday Flash on Retail Sales. Goggles ready?
Pass it on. Tell ‘em Edwin Starr sent you.