Confession time. I bought long in the stock market yesterday. And even though the market is set to open 50 points lower and all the technical signs in the world point to a lower market in coming weeks, I have weaned myself of wild-eyed options trading and am now doing a dividend play.
Well, for one thing, if you look at the 10-year Treasury chart, there’s an a-b-c counter trend rally that could run out of steam any minute. Lower interest rates would chill prospects of a Fed rate hike. Stocks paying dividends will glisten.
When rates return to the downside, the stock market could go down, but I think stocks that are paying pretty good dividends, have unassailable market positions, and dominance in their sector may still be a good deal.
As you also might remember, I continue to look at the 1921-1929 charts and see that while there may be the risk of a decline to the 1,740 S&P level, there is also a strong historical rhyme that suggests the market could be pressing S&P 3,000 in 2016 and that would be where the blow-off top rhyme with the 1920s could wind up.
This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE – just saying that although our trading model may scoot down to the sell line, unless war breaks out (sooner than later) there is still a statistically significant chance that we could rally on for the balance of the year and well into next.
Consider the global picture here, for a minute: Everyone is “making up money” and pretending like it’s real. And – it is….at least insofar as people believing the fairytale is concerned. Economic growth is likely to be strong, at least on paper, because there is so much money sloshing around the system.
The Fed can read history as well as anyone, and printing so much money (and giving as much zero interest rate bailouts through the back door to banks and such) can only go on so long. But if they don’t print fast enough to keep the wider public recognition of deflation from sinking in, they ultimate deflationary collapse will be upon us.
On the other hand, if they keep stepping on the financial gas too long, then we get into a hyperinflationary blow-off a-la the Weimar Republic. Except the reparations would be going to China which doesn’t plan to be stiffed on those bonds we have been selling them to make all this work.
So even if the market drops a couple of hundred this week, it would be roughly in line with the end of month beat-down in the price of gold. In the longer term, I’m expecting a huge blow-off top to come, then I will load up on shorts, and when those pay off, then we will flip back into equities at prices that might be as low as 10-cents on the dollar.
In the meantime, I think it’s possible that the S&P could pull back to the 2,040 range in coming weeks, but with so much money sloshing, it has to go somewhere looking for more than gambling returns.
But we shall see.
However, when we do get the blow off next year, my lone gold coin and the lone silver coin will go down the road,. as gold and silver might pop to the $2,500 and $75 levels when the Big Inflation Scare of 2016 comes along and the equities bubble as one of the few things left that can be leveraged and won’t leave you homeless.
So Ures truly is nibbling now and big names and familiar brands – like present day real estate – look really cheap. The dividend paid by my pick is a kind of insurance policy. And long term capital gains are a much smaller bite than short-term.
Stupid Distractions – Soccer To Yah
Who gives a crap about the soccer corruption case? Mass media is selling us crap instead about getting into real news about who’s doing who and who’s doing us.
Are you a fish? If you read more than a single headline and first paragraph on this, the hook of mind control is set. You is “on the line” suckah.
Stay in the game, please. This is a no-matter distraction like that god-awful South African murder trial a while back. Useless, brain-numbing sh*t. WTFU.
Weather Attack On Texas Continues
I could take a picture of a cranky septic system here, if you’d like….
Ukraine Attack by Russia?
While NATO continues piling arms into Ukraine, here’s a story that wonders whether Russia will be about to launch an invasion. Though, I don’t expect it until the 30th.
And then, only if you believe the mystical rabbi who got the World Trade Center and Gulf War right…still, we never discount views…
Which Gets Us to China
Absent a compelling reason to buy anything from America – despite the traitorous secret Trade Bill (never seen anything so crooked as a Secret Law on trade or the sell-out of Mitch McConnell of small transparent government principles) – we still have the China Problem on the desk.
The simple matter is the USA owes more money than its gross domestic product, which makes us more or less technically bankrupt. (It will be a huge deal when rates begin to rise.)
So who can we use to prod China are our behest? Warhammer has that angle:
Classic ‘proxy’ competition is officially on the menu in the S. China Sea.
By all appearances, so as not to overly provoke the awakening dragon, the U.S. recruited the Philippines to test just how serious China is regarding defending their territorial claims over their latest Spratly Islands construction project (per this link):
We know from recent reports that pacifist Japan is also ramping up its military presence in the Western Pacific to levels not seen since WWII. That nation also announced it is joining Australian military exercises for the first time ever while deepening military ties to the Philippines, all in response to China’s recent territorial hegemony.
Oil and gas are wartime commodities, for sure, but China also needs these petro products to help operate the equipment needed to feed their humungous population, provide power to industry and heat during the winter. With the U.S. military standing at its weakest level in decades, a Spratly land grab is a no brainer for Chinese President Xi Jinping, considering the U.S. does not appear willing to directly engage over the Spratly area unless China first ignites the region’s fuse by drawing first blood against one of America’s proxy (ally) militaries.
The Chinese have surely studied Russia’s bold successes in the Crimea and E. Ukraine and are simply following that general game plan. And why not! Don’t mess with a good thing. As long as the Chinese don’t get greedy and continue to “swallow in small bites,” all the while graciously letting neighboring nations ‘use’ their Spratly air and sea space, they’re on track to control the bulk of the oil producing S. China Sea before the end of this decade.
The S. China Sea situation adds to a growing list of U.S. foreign policy headaches caused by Russia, Iran, the Ukraine, Syria, ISIS, Yemen, N. Africa. The next American president appears destined to engage in a very chancy game of diplomatic ‘whack a mole.’
What, if anything, the sitting (make that ‘golfing’) president chooses to do about any of the above remains to be seen.
You are welcome to disagree with his assessment, but here’s got oak leaf clusters and odds are low that you do….so we do consider him an SME (subject matter expert) when it comes to things like owning the weather and other military levels most people don’t think beyond, simply because it’s not sliced, diced, and chopped into sound bites on faux snooze.
President Clinton 2nd’s Preemptive Impeachment
Even though she’s the apparent high bidder for the White House, yet to be anointed President Clinton the Second has a little problem off in the wings related to?
(try to look surprised here, at least…_)
I’m not sure how the Supreme Court would figure this one out…I mean should it actually get traction… I don’t remember anyone talking about “Preemptive Impeachment” before.
Also, in contesting, we note that Carly Fiorina is gaining traction, but I will hold to my earlier view that Republicans (the other corporate party) are just too dumb to run a woman for the WH and thus, declaw You Know Who. Speakin’ of witch…
Paula Jones, meantime, says don’t let Bill back in the WH….she oughta know but with enough media buys, even amnesia can be mass –marketed. Ask Goebbels.
Just a wild-ass guess here, but is America any brighter than pre-War Germany?
Ure’s Master Marketing Class 101 for these guys: learn to read frigging financial statements (See Hills for example) and stop trying to get back into politics and get honest jobs, instead.
Are We SURE This Was An Accident?
Aw, come on: Who needs terrorism when we have government and academics?