When Not to Follow Trading Models

One of our readers asked an interesting question that deserves a comprehensive answer this morning:  What is the point of all the Peoplenomics research and charts if *Ure’s truly*  doesn’t religiously follow his own models?

FOGODfear of gap opening down – –which the market is set to deliver in an unusually timely way as our example today at the open. After our usual headlines and coffee, natch.

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16 thoughts on “When Not to Follow Trading Models”

  1. Lol… I have another name for it… GUESSING


    • LOL – That’s the way with ALL manmade systems – and why we still keep “humans in the loop” to control nuclear weapons, too. There are times when you can “see it coming” but a moving trend doesn’t reverse until after the first torpedos have hit the ship… defloating them takes a while to show up in data,..

      • Yep, just like the Titanic, took a while to get any help after the icebergnado hit, and how much percentage loss of life in X amount of hours???? Not to mention the total loss of the Titanic. The only thing I don’t know is was there insurance on that ship??? What is the insurance on bitcoins???

  2. Hi George, great post as always. I was curious on your thoughts on gold. Ray Dalio just got a little more bullish on it, and it’s been trading in a pretty tight range for a while. Bitcoin seems to be taking the lion’s share of the hot money, but where do you see smart money headed with respect to gold?

    • Hi George,

      I have to agree with Jesse in wondering about the PMs. With oil firming and undercurrent inflation showing it’s nose, it would be nice to get more perspectives on this area.

  3. And it continues George. If your theory is true, they must be messaging yet. The message, ‘give us what we want’.

    What is that? Trump, Clinton, War with NK?

  4. “There are times when you can “see it coming” but a moving trend doesn’t reverse until after the first torpedo have hit the ship…”


  5. Ahahhahahahhahardeeharhar! I cant stop laughing at your outrageous comedic writing this morning. Shorting Bitcoin is about the most asinine idea you have ever espoused on this site.I am usually entertained by your writing,today’s missive leaves me questioning your sanity.It would be rather irresponsible for a financial writer to suggest shorting Bitcoin.Exposing oneself to Unlimited losses in trading really demonstrates ones inability to think clearly and reason soundly. Perhaps today was a Wake and Bake day? Color me Astounded.

    • LOL Dan, you are such a crypto tool. Bitcoin has been median price 7500 down to 5900 and in a b wave now at 7200. I still expect under 5,000 within a month. No gut, no glory, lol
      I ran out of tulips but I’m going to be launch blockchained Texas cow pies…want in?

  6. Tulip mania occurred in the Netherlands in 1619-1622 when the world population was what? Estimated to be around 580 MILLION people.
    Today the world population stands at 7 BILLION. A bubble ??? The Math is always right.Bonds, stocks,sub prime car loans all bubbles. Less than .03% of population knows what Bitcoin is – can not be a bubble, yet.

    • LOL, Never stop selling, eh Dan?
      1. You are making up dates. Tulip mania collapsed in Feb 1637.
      2. Population of Netherland was 2.27-million circa 1630.
      3. You can not reliably extrapolate worldpop then with now.

      Your logic is like the Coca Cola execs that said “Coke could own the world if everyone in China drank 3 Cokes a day!”

      Calculator-induced Wet dreams may result in feel goods, but they don’t make house payments or fund the villa on the Riviera. Turn off the screen, go for a walk.

      • G,
        I used the charting info I learned from you mainly and accumulated Bitcoin Cash BCH at $300-535 over past 3 weeks, then sold on two Fib lines and made $6K. Could have made more with better info. Wont fund a Villa but makes a couple house payments. I wish you would take a closer look into crypto because your trading/charting would make us all more than a couple of latte’s.

      • Um-m-m . . .

        Exposing my general lack of interest on bitcoins, or crypto whatever – but there is this nice little story about the tulip mania – seems this merchant had just got a very expensive bulb and had left it in a pantry before putting it ‘away’. He had a friend who was a famous scientist of the time – a bit absentminded – may have been one of the ‘optics’ discoverers – and when the man wandered off during a party – the merchant was horrified to find the esteemed guest ‘examining’ the bulb, having taken it apart.

        Moral – What is one person’s treasure is another’s ‘junk’. (I value my books – if you don’t read or have no interest, they are just paper . . .)

  7. Personally I am with MDS.. my books and what I have learned from them is priceless.. in the event of a true SHTF scenario it will all be worthwhile.. just look at libraries lost to history.. a few are.. the library of alexandria,Xianyang Palace and State Archives, Antioch,Serapeum, ect. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_destroyed_libraries
    today we have moved away from the written word and turned digital.
    So what if a SHTF scenario happened.. first we wouldn’t run out of resources right away. we have plenty but because we have systematically dumbed up our youth, destroyed our industrial complex if a SHTF scenario did happen within a few years we would be realistically back to stone age. the existence of the pyramids and sphinx is proof enough since we don’t have the technology to replicate what was done five and ten thousand years ago today.
    Coinage was original method of carrying working metals for trade purposes, some was beads and pearls gold was mostly for adornment purposes. Money is a ponzi scheme we all have bought into for over a hundred years and the only thing I think that is holding its value up is the fact that the oil industry is backing it.. before that bank script could be exchanged for gold. from what I understand it was so that someone wouldn’t have to carry that much weight with them.
    Bernie proved to us that a piece of paper with a number on it is just that a piece of paper with a number on it and if it isn’t written on a soft quilted paper four inches wide it is pretty much worthless unless you are trying to start a fire.
    Now unless you have an ingot of gold or an ounce to sell it in the form of jewelry is drastically depreciated if sold as jewelry for the gold.
    I know I need the piece of paper to survive in todays world since it is what holds value at this time but in a SHTF scenario. all we have to do is go back to the History to discover that gold and silver were pretty much worthless. there are pictures showing that city dwellers would carry out baskets of both to buy food. money well it was cheaper to burn money than buy wood. most of this I think was fueled by the drop in the stock market.
    Today we are sitting on the same scenario that there was back then. we are following the same lines as other countries where hyper inflation is rampant.
    in a sense I feel the economic position is only flourishing on the surface when in reality we are dancing on a volcano ready to burst.
    an idea I had gotten one day when I stopped early at the bank. well they weren’t open yet but in times past they would let me in for coffee just as they were getting ready to open the tellers windows.. on one such occasion they were putting out the drawers and counting the cash. the total amount they had was fifteen hundred dollars per drawer. similar to that of a gas station that starts out with twenty dollars.. the branch manager said just don’t tell anyone that is what we start with. so if that is true.. what would happen if someone walked in and asked for fifty thousand in cash.. not a cashiers check they in a sense would have to close the doors..
    Crypto heck that is just a magnetic number if the web was shut down or power systems interrupted technically you are bankrupt.
    What I do hold value in ties with original thoughts for the ages past. working metals.
    so out of curiosity as gold and silver has been rising and falling what has copper and nickle been doing for rising and falling prices. I know a few years ago people were buying pennies and selling them for copper prices was worth more than what the pennies were worth. and they started to make them with a cheaper metal.
    Nickle another working metal.

    • https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/young-greek-women-selling-sex-for-the-price-of-a-sandwich-new-study-shows/2015/11/27/c469695e-94d9-11e5-b5e4-279b4501e8a6_story.html

      then there are stories where elderly people needed to hunt for food in garbage heaps or dumpster dive because their version of social security were no longer good.


      it is all relevant to the daily struggle.. in america I think we all live in a bubble.. I had a few really hard times in my life and since have made it my lifes journey to find someone in a similar position once a year as my gift to myself.
      a few of them were
      a young couple both with outstanding positions that had three kids one of their youngest daughters was found to have brain cancer.. her trips to the doctor for treatments resulted in them loosing their jobs insurance and because of their income levels and the cars they drove their owning a home etc.. they couldn’t even get food stamps was about to be evicted..
      another was forced to eat what his cat brought in. He saved the pelts to remind him of what he endured. he delivered his three kids on the kitchen table worked real hard at his job discovered him when he was riding a bike in six inches of snow.. he had medical bills and no insurance.. ( the kids are all grown he is one of the few that know I was the one and each one of his kids know me as well all of them have jobs as social workers and doctors)
      one single mom she got the swine flu.. but since she didn’t have insurance wasn’t able to get treatment till she got sick enough.. she went into convulsions one night after being turned away and was rushed into she was finally sick enough and put in a coma. I got the call late at night from a friend that said here is one just for you.. she left a thirteen year old girl to watch over her three or four year old toddler brother. when I got there was one scared little girl.. no food in the house the furnace was broken or the gas was shut off rent was back due etc etc.. needless to say if I never see another thing in the world the look on that little girls face was enough..
      the list is endless and they are all around us. most of the times we just don’t see it.. the elderly old woman that would come in once a week and buy seven cans of cat food..
      In my opinion we should be all working together.. instead our attentions have been directed by a very few to cherish something non tangible.

      • One of my favorites was the can man.. years ago I worked at a major manufacturer.. we built things for the home.. that year for a national display we built a home out of cardboard.. it was beautiful.. anyway we had a huge picnic and some cops rode by on bicycles patrolling the bike path. Joking i said hey we should go built a quick house and set it up with a mailbox etc.. so when they ride back by they will be shocked like where did that come from..
        well it was worth a good laugh.. years later I met the most phenomenal man.. injured in the war and no where to go he was forced to live under bridges and in the dumpster.. he would walk around gathering can’s and was dubbed the can man.. he entered my life as a friend..
        he was all manners gentle and giving beyond compare..
        His goal to find his kids that he had lost track of.. he wanted to apologize to them before he left.
        unfortunately he never did that but more I regret that I had not built that house on the bike path.. it was where he lived and hopefully he would have found it..

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