What Matters: Culture War – or CASH?

Despite my injuries (some improvement – thanks, drug!) the morning SitRep ended up being two large piles of  yuck.  No, make that glop.

In one pile went a ton of stories (BLM, NFL, brandishing, and so forth.  In the other went the  Jerry McGuire  stuff (“Show me the money!”).

Say, that’s not a particularly hard editorial choice for the  neoclassical monetarist,  is it?

M1 – Markets to Pause

Normally, the annual high in the stock market comes in mid to late August.  Some years (1929) it’s the first week of September, but mainly  we’re possibly getting close.

The reason for this thinking is in one of our  Peoplenomics charts of the Aggregate Index.  We have had two “active counts” going of this rally (from the late March lows).  One of these was a five-wave advance count.  The other was an A-B-C bounce from the March lows.

While that was momentarily breached Wednesday, it wasn’t a “Big Deal” because when you back out the 31% jacking-up of the money supply since the lows, we’re  really likely only in the 70-75% retracement area.

Now, that’s a controversial position to take.  But, it’s coldly logical and supported, especially now, by the data.

You want money?  Let’s see what the Making Up Money crowd at the Fed has done, shall we?

There’s a certain “understanding” that comes from staring at the data long-enough:  You can see that in the past 13-weeks, the money supply (m1) being up 92.7% annualized can be divided into four quarters.  So (without firing up the spreadsheet) if we take 92.7% annualized…divided by four… how much should the market be up – just on monetary inflationary pressures – since March 23?

Oh, 23%, or thereabouts.

But the 6-month (divided by 2 for a quarterly rate – taking some liberties with math here – means the quarter rate could be expressed as 28.55%.  OR, we could run with the Fed’s 33.4% annual number each of these?

19,418.67 (the March 23 Aggregate) times 23% says some the low our Aggregate ought to be 23,884.94.  Or, if we look at the six-months (turned into a quarterly) that would target 24,962 on the Aggregate.  While the annual rate would suggest 25,904.51.

Nice Theory, But…

What was the actual Aggregate close Thursday?   

28,707.71 which is 98.789% of the February 19th previous all-time high.  To put it politely, there’s an implied “Rational Investor” question that screams for an answer:

Are things better off now than they were February 19th?

No, of course not.

For one, the stock market had a 31% wash-out since.  And all the GDP numbers globally scream that GDPs will be down anywhere from 4 to 12 percent for this year and there will not be a global snap–back next year.  Trump’s in trouble, virus criticism rages, masks don’t make a happy public and on it goes…

Honestly, the difference between the “pure monetary rally range” and the actual is likely accountable by direct Fed intervention (which may not show in M1) and because we have a lot of people staying home, and trying to make a living day trading.  Which makes for a good deal of “puffery” in markets (in our view).

Since Thursday was options expiration for some index options, we’d expect lower at some point today, so the specialists can pick-up stock to cover at lower prices, and then go on to afford that house with a pool in the Hamptons.

Set all this aside now, as one “pile of glop.”

Pile #2:  The CV-19 Glop

The picture didn’t change overnight.  We’re still going to hit 14-million cases globally on Sunday.  And, if you haven’t been paying attention, the cases are now going up at a “million a week” rate.

Since we have 7-1/2 weeks to Labor day, we take 14-million for this Sunday, add 7-million to that, and remind you that 21-million cases is a kind of “low-ball” estimate for the holiday weekend.  Love to be wrong on this, but I won’t be.  Especially with “Brazil hits 2 million coronavirus cases and more than 76,000 dead.”

My son, a firefighter/EMT up in Washington state, reports there are now 16-firefighters in his dept. who may have been exposed, so here comes another round of testing.  (We heard a rumor the chief has our outlook forecasts, that I’ve been periodically sending G2, up on his wall…The department acquired an additional aid buggy (perhaps) based on some of those numbers.  It’s now getting a real workout…)

Whether schools open – or not – is likely to one a hot topic going forward.  We’re refer you to Colleges Prepare to Test Thousands of Students for Covid-19 as a starting point.  School taxes with no “school?”

And then there’s the One Percenter’s trying to feather their own nests as European Union leaders say they are far apart on COVID-19 bailout deal.

I think it was Reader Ray who pointed out the disingenuousness of the “millionaires calling for higher taxes” on the rich.  They could, just get off their asses and send in extra dough to IRS.  He think’s there’s a PR play going on among the Richie Rich types and I can think of a lot of reasons why they’d want to deflect criticism…

A Word from HR

Notwithstanding, when you see stories like “Mark Meadows calls Fauci’s 1918 flu comparison ‘irresponsible’” to run the people through your personal HR filter I looked ’em up and I tend to weigh my assessment of such headlines on the basis of source creds.  So in the case of Fauci, his educational background:

“Fauci attended Regis High School in Manhattan’s Upper East Side, where he captained the school’s basketball team and graduated in 1958.[9][5] He then went to the College of the Holy Cross, graduating in 1962 with a Bachelor of Arts degree in classics with a pre-med track. Fauci then attended medical school at Cornell University Medical College where he graduated first in his class with a Doctor of Medicine in 1966.[6] He then completed an internship and residency in internal medicine at the New York Hospital-Cornell Medical Center, now known as New York Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medicine.”

And in the case of his critic, Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows:

“Meadows attended Florida State University for one year in 1977–78.[2] Meadows incorrectly claimed to hold a Bachelor of Arts from the University of South Florida for many years in his official biography maintained by the Office of the Historian of the U.S. House of Representatives. In actuality, he graduated from the University of South Florida with an Associate of Arts.”

I don’t know about you, but this is not a particularly difficult HR (decision support) call for us to make.

Trump has a continuing (and really serious) HR issue!

Now, toss in the Marxists horning in on the death of George Floyd, and stories like how Redskins result: Another culture war win for corporate America and the media elite, and you quickly come to what we call “The Gradient.”

That’s the “area between news story themes” and that’s where the future sort of oozes from.

Example?

Take the story “California faculty union demands free tuition for black students, removal of armed campus cops.”  What the faculty leftists are doing is demanding more racism. (When you check race, that’s racism, right?)  They seem to be operating on the theory (never proven, as far as I know) that “two wrongs can make a right.”

Show me some data!  People are people – when you bring up race – melanated or otherwise – that’s racism.

And it’s in Colorado, as well:  “UC Boulder: Holding the values of the Black Lives Matter movement is “non-negotiable condition of enrollment.”  You’re kidding, right? So a school endorsing racism?

Understand this clearly:  Equality – as I was brought up – means literally color-blindNot color checking GMAFB.

Marxists are all about making up more wrongs…and that’s where America is today…and its a freaking mess.

Ah…the Phony Culture War...

The liberalista (corporate media and left of there) are selling the notion of “culture war” but it’s not.  We’ve long-held that this is simply what digital insurrection looks like.  Since we’ve never seen it before, we had to call it something, right?

One of our long-time contributors on military affairs is a recently retired former “oak leaf cluster” fellow, deeply involved in the digital warfare front.  I value his perspectives on things like phony “culture warfare” especially when it’s spill-over from Me-2 crap on socialist media…

“Two Princeton profs are arguing the ‘cancel culture’ mentality should apply to the Democrats and their own unsavory moments in American history.

Should add to their list of horrific aggressions Harry Truman’s order to drop A-bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during the summer of 1945. Since an estimated 200,000 non-combatant Japanese civilians died and untold thousands more were irreparably maimed by the blasts, current cancel culture standards demand that Truman and his bevy of Democratic party associates should all be erased from the pages of U.S. history. Ban the entire party. Erase it!

A better alternative exists: just cancel the #*@%! cancel culture.”

And so – with its clothes ripped off – all but the most stupid can see “cancel culture” for what it is:  Marxist historical revisionism.  Forget the past (like the implosion of the Soviet Union, Stalin’s killing more people than Hitler, and so on) and you, too, can set up a bad government and become a two-bit dictator.  See Venezuela for details.

Coming soon to a country near you?

DigiWar

Speaking of digital warfare, did you see where “Twitter hack, outage shut down National Weather Service accounts during severe weather, tornadoes across Midwest?”

Housing Starts

Just out from Census:

Someone ask for a side order of context?

  • Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,241,000.  This is 2.1 percent (±1.2 percent) above the revised May rate of 1,216,000, but is 2.5 percent (±1.7 percent) below the June 2019 rate of 1,273,000.
  • Privately-owned housing starts in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,186,000.  This is 17.3 percent (±11.0 percent) above the revised May estimate of 1,011,000, but is 4.0 percent (±9.1 percent)* below the June 2019 rate of 1,235,000.
  • Privately-owned housing completions in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,225,000.  This is 4.3 percent (±12.2 percent)* above the revised May estimate of 1,174,000 and is 5.1 percent (±11.9 percent)* above the June 2019 rate of 1,166,000.

After the data, Dow futures were up 150.  We’d still like to see a pullback later but who knows?  Maybe we’re not the only ones to realize we’re in “million cases a week” territory…

ATR:  Leg’s better, thanks…

Lots of red light later, the ham string pull is much-improved.  And the gout is quieting down a bit.

Still hot as blazes here in the Outback and we’re now in the 45-Days of Hell until September gets here.  We can hardly wait.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

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George Ure
Amazon Author Page: https://www.amazon.com/George-Ure/e/B0098M3VY8%3Fref=dbs_a_mng_rwt_scns_share UrbanSurvival Bio: https://urbansurvival.com/about-george-ure/

40 thoughts on “What Matters: Culture War – or CASH?”

  1. Had my first bout of gout. The only thing that diminished the pain enough to get some sleep was cbd. Not a doctor and against advice but it is better than the contemplated big toe amputation. Ugly ugly experience. 76 years and I trust no one… scrutinize the professionals in your life. A degree is worthless without common sense…

  2. George, rather than focusing on the little stuff, like whether Trump can drink water, we might consider:

    IF we were to go with the Trump response to the Virus, as opposed to the Fauci model, THEN the US death toll will be about 1.0 million by Jan 1st. (Culminating in about 3.0 million US deaths before herd immunity is finally reached in about two years.)
    Which, BTW, is not so good for the economy either. Best, Mike.

    • You DO realize the present track would have 2.4 million global dead by Jan 1 and in the US 531,669 deaths by 1/1/21, right?
      So you’re saying Trump is right?
      (reaching for the ViseGrips as we speak…)

      • @ G U

        Trump might not be right…BUT The whole country would still be shutdown listening to Fauci…. He has crashed this country beyond repair and continues to spew his agenda…which is to make himself and gates rich with THEIR vaccine…so until they can bring it too market
        HE will spew HIS agenda to stay closed…and wear a f’ing mask…lead poisoning would be too good for him and his ilk…

      • RBI, thank you for that link! My sanity is temporarily restored as that is exactly what I am seeing. More testing = more positive cases, but the death rate dropped and has not go back up with this “second wave”. Locally it is the 20-29 YOs who are increasing in the numbers… sailors and protesters :(

      • “The whole country would still be shutdown listening to Fauci…. He has crashed this country beyond repair and continues to spew his agenda…”

        I am sorry d. but the country had already entered the death spin.. all covid did is point the countries fragile spots our dependence of foreign manufacturing and speed up the descent..
        People are forgetting.. you may get over the virus.. but the damage done is still there.. sort of like a coal miner.. a man working around coal breaths in the dust breaths out the dust.. the dust still does its damage to the lungs and before long you have the dreaded black lung.. the virus affects more than just the lungs.. so your body becomes weaker.. you catch it again.. and it does more damage.. eventually it will take you down..
        a herd culling virus..

  3. Hi, George,
    Sorry to read about your injury. You might have used a block and tackle rigging to assist you with the heavy lifting. At our advanced ages, we need to maintain an exercise regimen but not over do it where we injure ourselves. I had to stop running when I injured my other knee a while back. Joined a gym with my boyfriend so we can work out nearly every day.
    Please get on the allopurinol. The gout crystals assume the appearance of needles and can travel anywhere in the body. Here’s hoping you make a full recovery.

  4. Some simplification. The two immediate major issues (both related): 1) Marxist takeover of America; 2) Phony Covid Narrative to lockdown the economy and basically deliver a one, two knock blow to America.

    Issue One: Marxist Takeover. Trump and Co. not doing a damned thing by calling out the Cancel Culture and where this is leading (Marxism, of course). No legal action by Barr and Co. to take on the obvious ‘racism’ directed at whites.

    Issue Two: Trump and Co. going along with the program to carryout Lockdown 2.0 (after not recovering from Lockdown 1.0). Protection guidelines for the elderly and immunocompromised?? Yes, definitely. All others, proceed as usual. No lockdowns, no school closures, no business closures, mask wearing and social distancing optional and at the discretion of the individual.

    Summary, Issue One and Issue Two being ignored. Result: severe depression and civil war. Sad but very true – unfortunately for a country that never made it to 250 years old!!

    • I totally agree on issue #1!

      Issue #2 is considerably more complex. Masks have been shown to be significantly effective at 60% usage and very effective once past 80% use. We do need domestic sources of high quality masks and that should have been pushed much harder than the ventilator fiasco. Other PPE too.

      Some people might be oxygen deprived using an N-95 or better, though this can and should be mitigated using a respirator with a much larger filtration surface area. Those masks with a one-way valve are good for dealing with particulates in industry, but worthless in preventing the spread of infection. If we simply designed and produced a standard large area respirator to an N-99 standard with easily replaceable filters, and then sold these at a deep discount with a federal subsidy, we’d be way ahead of the curve. People should also be wearing eye protection – ideally goggles with a filtered vent. This might seem weird, but if the virus is as they say it is, then people can and must adapt. There’s no downside to wearing a mask in public if you get enough O2. The challenge happens when you seek an intimate partner or are a dentist, physician, EMT, nurse, etc., and that’s barely been discussed.

      • Dr Simone Gold (Physician AND Attorney) said this on a June 24th editorial in the USA Today:

        “The Covid virus was supposed to be contained in the kind of lab where people wear astronaut suits and go through triple sealed doors. It is a con of massive proportion to assert that now, having escaped those environs, a bandana will magically do the trick.”

        https://theminnesotasun.com/2020/06/29/dr-simone-gold-commentary-we-do-not-consent/

        Careful who you share that quote with, you can give people sore ribs from laughing.

    • “Issue One: Marxist Takeover. Trump and Co. not doing a damned thing by calling out the Cancel Culture and where this is leading (Marxism, of course). No legal action by Barr and Co. to take on the obvious ‘racism’ directed at whites.”

      He can’t. The Marxist march is sanctioned by the Democrats and the entirety of the mainstream media. Also, “non-whites” are all “protected classes” so by definition, they are incapable of racism… THIS is why it is important to control the narrative, and where conservatives have failed miserably for the last hundred years! The “definition” should be color-blind, as should the Law, and the application thereof. I shouldn’t need to tell anyone they’re not…

  5. The present pandemic is way closer to the ones in 1957 and 1968 than it is to the one in 1918, check the numbers and remember there were a third less people in the world in 1968.

    The only reason to compare this flu to the Spanish flu in 1918 is that was really bad (generates fear) and no one remembers the pandemics from ’57 or ’68 as they were non events.
    Dr Fauci knows this, he was there.

  6. To the dismay of NJ Gov.Phil Murphy,the Coast Guard has been unable to find the multitude of bodies sleeping with the fishes in the Delaware River after the gyms and restaurants opened up in Pennsylvania three weeks ago,something Murphy promised us would happen.He’s still looking for the honorariums for Biden’s campaign.He’s also proposing legalizing marijuana during an alleged epidemic of a lung disease.

    • It’s not the job of government to protect us from ourselves. Smoking is bad, mkay? And COVID is a systemic disease. It’s not just about lungs.

      There’s no need to smoke pot. There are plenty of other ways to assimilate it, for those that actually want to. SOME CBD oils have been shown to have a protective effect against SARS2-COV according to a study in Canada. Others don’t. At this point we’re all on our own as far as staying alive and virus free. There’s very little consistent and authoritative information available yet, and the virus is mutating with regularity.

  7. I saw that federal cops are in Portland sweeping up protesters and “testing” their powers. Long article talking about Trump overstepping, and how it just makes protesters want to protest more.

    Feel like being trolled?

    Trump is trolling the protesters. He wants them there every night. How to keep up the energy? Add energy, duh.

    The news report is trolling everyone, but mostly the protesters. I couldn’t think of better advertisement than quoting one of the federal cop “victims” saying the federal cop presence makes him want to protest more.

    When it’s this easy, why stop?

  8. Trump grew a pair:

    Federal officers use gas to clear protesters in Portland

    PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Federal officers deployed tear gas and fired less-lethal rounds into a crowd of protesters in Oregon, hours after the the head of the Department of Homeland Security visited Portland and called the demonstrators “violent anarchists.”

  9. I keep rereading Fauci’s cv and can’t find the anything about managing an epidemic. After an internal medicine residency he went on to head the country’s cv-19 reponse? Must have missed a degree in bs there somewhere because the US ranks down there with the hardest hit and the economy almost ruined. The big wheels don’t get to rest on their laurels, results only. Especially when they move out of their area of training and expertise.
    Speaking of results I notice the thumb on the scale for moderna’s rna vaccine, never been done before but the stock takes takes off days before they announce big govt grants and then walked through approvals. Looks like somebody is destined for a big pharma boardroom career.

    Brazil’s response was “let it run,” that should be an interesting experiment to watch and use a baseline.

    • ” the US ranks down there with the hardest hit and the economy almost ruined. The big wheels don’t get to rest on their laurels, results only.”

      One of the hardest hit.. and a country that ranks extremely low in Healthcare of its people.
      those that have success forget that their success is developed by those they disrespect or look down upon. the beginning of covid and the lockdown should have been an eye opener.. with the Hospital I worked at.. seventy six percent of the employees were not able to have the insurance plans offered to those in administration.. It wasn’t until they became self insured that it was offered..
      Take yesterday.. hot day.. I get a call from an old old friend.. we chatted about many things then I ask.. so what are you doing today.. WELL… I quit my job at the Hospital. what happened.. they had an old sports injury and when it starts to act up they have to go in and get a shot.. the work they did is the grunt work.. the hospital runs short staff on purpose because its the only budget saver they have to deal with.. necessities .. this was the first day this year they had called in they would be late… in with the DON ( Director of Nurses) and get a super butt chewing and threatening to fire them they chewed their butt for over an hour telling them what a despicable thing they did by being late to work how they were not even the value of the hospitals time etc….. ( hospitals if you are not in admin you loose your job if you get sick or call in.. like it or not but after forty years working in the field that is how it is.. the fall witch hunt is about to drop down on us to..) because it is low pay this individual had to have two jobs.. a stepping stone if the witch hunt took them out in the next couple of months.. NOW.. they are short staffed.. this individual was the only one for thirty patients because they are that short labor staff.. techs are not the desk anchors.. the desk anchors sit there and do the paper work not the heavy lifting..
      so at the end of their shift.. they stopped by the office and turned in their stuff.. the back braces and other protective equipment and informed them they were done..
      by the time they had gotten a block the phone was wringing off the hook begging them to reconsider.. they said excuse me you spent over an hour telling me I was the most worthless employee you had because I had to go to the doctor and that the hospital does not accept people being late for any reason.. If I hadn’t of gone to the doctor for that shot and I got hurt at work the hospital would not have covered the illness because it is an old illness.. if you don’t appreciate my labor I will go someplace else where it is..
      The sad part about that is it is the same in every medical facility that I have ever worked at.. another friend had a bad asthma attack and went to the ER .. they wanted to admit her.. she went to work or loose her job.. its that simple.. Now the facility will have to work the remaining techs double hard or worse.. ( I wish I had a dime for every time it was tag your it for several wings..)
      The big wheels usually forget that they are on top because there are a great deal of people willing to lift them up into that position..if those people are not there.. they loose their position at the top..

  10. Fauci is just another deep state goombah placed in Trump’s path to trip him up & forward the swamp’s agenda. Wheels are coming off the bus irregardless of the driver. Plan accordingly, and as “ol Remus (RIP) used to say, “stay away from crowds”.

  11. Just to help clarify the U.C. Boulder (not to be confused with U.C. Berkley) administrative policy is relating to the First amendment. The administration of UCB has released a statement which I will paraphrase. UCB supports the right to free speech as guaranteed under the First Amendment . Here at UCB we respect the individual right of all students and staff to speak freely provided that your beliefs are consistent with this universities doctrines and beliefs. If you cant handle that , find another school to attend or for employment.
    There is a cure for this myopic administrative thought. Alumni can keep there wallets in their pockets and voters can vote no on any further college funding bills.

  12. George,

    I read your site everyday if possible. I wish to interject some info I glean from other sites, many of the articles written by medical professional. (Doctors)

    It seems the run-away numbers of new cases from Florida, Texas, etc. should be taken with a grain of salt. Don’t get me wrong, I am still taking all the necessary precautions.

    In Florida especially, seems a TV station investigated the number being reported, and found that numerous labs were submitting numbers that were showing 98% positive for all tests for Covid 19. When pressed about that percentage it in actuality turned out that only 6% of tests were positive, but the media ran with the first numbers. In Texas, they have changed the way they classify cases. If someone presents with symptoms (many of which are common to an ordinary cold or allergies), the case is listed as “probable Covid 19”. Here is the kicker, probable is now considered a confirmed case; even without a test.

    As to the tests, doctors from around the world are on record as stating that the tests being used cannot discriminate between Covid 19 and any other corona virus, which includes the common cold.

    As to Dr. Fauci, he has been in the hip pocket of Big Pharma and Bill (vaccinate the world &track) Gates. I trust his opinion about as much as I trust a fox in the hen house. Career bureaucrat from the word go.

    As you can tell, I am not buying the “panic”. Being an old fart, I am taking all the needed precautions, same as I always do during flu season. Don’t take the flu shot, and I damn sure am not taking the so-called Covid 19 vaccine. Want to bet that it becomes mandatory or you won’t be able to even go to the grocery. Have to have your vaccine ID card issued by the nice government men, or you are either imprisoned or under house arrest. Also strange that any treatment other than those that feed Big Pharma, Fauci, or Gates are deemed totally useless; regardless of how well they work.

  13. FOR ON TARGET COVID SCAM INFO… CHECK OUT ………ROBERT F KENNEDY JR…
    AND WATCH JEFF BERWICKS BITCHUTE CHANNEL…….THE DOLLAR VIGILANTE…GREAT STUFF!

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