We’re in Recession! Innocent Bystanders and GDP

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Economics drives history.  Von Clausewitz 101:  “Economics is just war by other means.”

So, we have three major play-acting / Kabuki performances going this week.

The curtain goes up this morning on GDP.  And for those who aren’t following what this means in terms of the ongoing war (on the people) being waged by two corporate parties, clip this future map out so you’ll see the play:

As you can see, if the Q2 GDP comes in at (or below) Q1 – that will line out one course into the future.  Specifically, the woke/left/Marxists/open border posse will be sent packing in the Mid-Term elections.

BUT, if we had gotten the (no incentive for government lie is there?) we will see more woke than even and the squeeze play will be on the rational middle people to vote for the doddering grandpa figure as the lest risk (though most impaired/controlled) option.

“The Envelope Please?”

“And the loser is?”

THE PEOPLE!

(Give us a chorus of “Go Brandon!”)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter. The smaller decrease in the second quarter primarily reflected an upturn in exports and a smaller decrease in federal government spending.

If you believe – as some do – that a Depression is 3 quarters of negative GDP we could cross that threshold when Q3 completes.  If you go by the Britanica “A depression may also be defined as a particularly severe and long-lasting form of recession, where the latter is generally understood, relative to a national economy, as a period of at least two consecutive quarters of decline in real (inflation-adjusted) GDP, or gross domestic product.”

Forbes gets it right in GDP Flashes Recession Warning Sign: Economy Shrank 0.9% Last Quarter As Experts Warn ‘Worse To Come’.

Others say it’s only a recession – which we want to agree with.  But three quarters or a year?  Could be here in 90-days.  Now we’re into it.

Welcome to Lie School

OK: How would Ure arrange the Big Lie – without being open to prosecution for lying, of course – to “Sell this?”

One-way would-be manipulation of Fed financial proxies.  Unseen by 99.9 percent of business “reporters” was the monthly H.6 Money Stocks report.  Where we see that the Monetary base in the past month.

Last month, the Monetary base was decreased 1.5%.  And for Q2?  It was down 10.237 percent.

Let me explain the GEARING here.  “IF there is less money in circulation THEN prices rise for the same level of commerce.”

Elaine and I eat pretty much the same food every month:  Raw meat, fresh veggies, and a case or two of four-liter bottles of Carlo Rossi Pisano red wine (for the resveratrol, of course!).  A year ago, our monthly bill was in the $480 range for food run.  This morning, same store, same diet our tab was $596.

A year ago, you see, the Fed’s Monetary base was about 9 percent higher.  Which means (now with less money in circulation, right) we would expect prices to be at least 10 percent higher.

Key Part of Biden’s Big Weimar 2 Lie:

If you cause enough inflation, it is impossible to have a “recession.”  Because the prices will rise (and GPD is a dollarized index) so fast and furious that no one – even statisticians – will be able to keep up.

Imagine I give you 100 bucks.  Tell you to go buy a couple of bottles of booze and go on a bender.  You come back in a week, trying to dry out, but now I give you $200 bucks and point you back to the booze palace.  Then the third week, I give you $400…. ever going to get sober?

By the same token then – if the Fed reduces the monetary base fast enough this will drive PRICES up – and they can do so with enough effect, that a dollarized report – like this morning’s GDP report – will NEVER be able to keep up – until prices are on the Moon and everyone is starving because their version of Biden’s Weimar will prevent anyone from catching on.

That’s why when we read stories this morning like U.S. yield curve flashing more warning signs of recession risks ahead (yahoo.com) we appreciate that this is ALL about keeping a recession from happening prior to the Mid-Terms.  Sanity and sound money have nothing to do with it.

Well, except a few readers here, of course!  And maybe China has noticed: China Decouples Further From US as Benchmark Rate Trails Fed.

Lie School – Lesson 2

No, the economy hasn’t recovered.  There were still fewer people working last month than at the pre-pandemic employment high.

The way you avoid outing the lie is by referencing comparison periods INSIDE the lockdown window.

So, when we read in the Wednesday report “In the fourth quarter of 2021, gross job gains from opening and expanding private-sector establishments were 9.6 million. Gross job losses from closing and contracting private-sector establishments were 6.7 million.” from Labor, we whipped out economic reality in data.  The boxed area is what they went all goo-goo and gushy about.  The Circled areas are what the Economic Grownups look at:

The Truth (if’n you can handle the truth?) is this:

  • Yes – Q4 in part 2 of the bio war lockdown was better than part 1. Duh.
  • No, fewer people are working now (all in) than were working before the bio war began.
  • And in the latest reporting month, we lost 315,000 jobs.

Predictably, next month’s report in a couple of weeks should show an increase in the number of people working (which will be heralded like Joe Biden should be sitting at the right-hand of Dude, or something).  BUT, we would be surprised if more people than late 2019 are actually working.

And that’s before we have the discussion of the half million plus illegals who have jumped the joke of a Biden Border between then and now.

Crooks and statisticians are seen in this analysis as very different.   Easy to catch the common crook.  Substantially harder to catch statisticians!

Can You Imagine This?

Why, the number of first-time unemployment filers is still holding low.  Gee, (with fewer people working and no counting of dumped illegals all over hell and gone, who would have thought?):

Same week, different shit, I’m afraid.

Later this morning, we get some economic data from the KC Federal Reserve.  By the luck of the calendar, they are a “day late” often times on the national economic feeding frenzy of news jackals. Which means they can afford to be candid and forthright a bit more, as we figure it.  Now, seeing how “the political fix” is in, we can digest what dreams may come.

Dust Bowl’s Here, Too

Reports have it Portland, in the uprising state of Wokregon (woke plus Oregon, right?) hit 111 F t’other day.  And still hot as the blazes here in the East Texas Outback, too.  But not everywhere is dry: Heavy rains cause flooding, power outages in Appalachia.

Slop Shots

Grab your pool cue and let’s bang some heads:

Job cuts in the wings: Ford CEO Hints at Job Cuts Amid Push to Expand EV Production.

TV movie plot of the day:  Hawaii couple accused of stealing the identities of dead infants in Texas decades ago, prosecutors say.

Politics is such fine sport:  Commanders owner Dan Snyder to testify before Congress.  This is a kind of place-holder story, as we figure it – since little is likely to be talked about in public.  In our simplistic view, you can’t have 53 mostly-millionaire playas who are at their lifetime testosterone peaks and NOT have some kind of wokee and grab-ass issues.  But hey – nothing a little saltpeter in the milk and more women in the locker room (for oversight, natch) can’t fix, right?  Then to have a panel of virtue-signal self-righteous pricks on the Hill?  Did I mention AOC is on this committee?  What could go wrong. Where’s my BS folder….

From which I pull out this: Warhamner  is still tracking the war expansion plans:

“The Pentagon announced ‘Merica will send a handful of older Lockheed Martin’s F-22 stealth fighters to new NATO member Poland to pointedly project full support of the Ukraine and to deter further Russian aggression.  All well and good, but this deal got me to wondering about the LM portfolio, which led me to this recent insightful piece on the company’s portfolio.

Lockheed Makes 27% Revenues From F-35 Sales; How Else Is US Defense Behemoth Profiting From Global Conflicts? 

There’s a lot of Ure tax dollars and mine being handed out to this sprawling defense systems company, money that is slipped back into political contributions when LM lobbies Pelosi and company to further expand their already behemoth defense production capabilities via foreign military sales.”

It’s a textbook symbiotic capitalistic relationship – congress funds LM, LM sells their wares to the U.S. ‘and’ our allies, then LM ‘donates’ some of their lucrative profits back to the congressmen and women who supported LM acquisition programs and/or have LM production facilities in their districts.

Just think how Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan will ramp up America’s overseas arsenal stocking! Wish I could see her hubbies trade book for stock tips to buy today and tomorrow…

Only for the poor? Biden administration announces $400 million for rural internet access.  Bet if I changed my last name to something more – oh, you know, poor sounding – I could get some of that.  Our internet costs out here run $335 a month.  Maybe if I wrote off more and looked poorer on paper there’d be some relief for the working class, not just the poor?

OK, off to stock up for another couple of weeks.  Wine supplies are low and temps still rising….

Write when you get rich, preferably on some kind of non-notional, real, and edible basis of accounting…

George@Ure.net

29 thoughts on “We’re in Recession! Innocent Bystanders and GDP”

    • Well, as the old Ure family saying goes: “Thems with a good story and a little cash owns any politician they wants…”

      LM still has the cold fusion story to trade for the cold cash story…capische?

  2. Warhammer is spot on. It’s a criminal racket and some of us in the MICIMATT business watch it happen everyday and are tired of it. I have over 40-years in the business. These thieves steal the honor from those of us dedicated to standing on that wall.

    I really need to finish my movie and show Americans how it all works. The idiots running this show do not think twice about pissing away 50 million dollars here and there.

  3. $F has more than a staffing issue, they’ve got a legacy ICE division issue.

    How does a radiator designer fit into the new EV design studio? She’ll be hanging around the fuel injection guy complaining to a former exhaust engineer the alternator folks are always out of office using banked vacation time.

    And now that you mention F. Notice of the “Detroit three” Chrysler never mentions their EV line-up. They don’t mention their EV line-up because they won’t be around…. who will pay their pension responsibilities?

    I know the answer. I spotted a Time Machine called ‘Congress’!

    Congress’ Vote on Delphi Pensions Bailout Shows Problem With Putting Unions Above Law

    “Congress is set to vote this week on HR 6929 to retroactively bail out the pensions of about 20,000 former Delphi auto-parts employees who had their pensions reduced beginning in 2009.”

    https://www.dailysignal.com/2022/07/25/congress-vote-on-delphi-pensions-bailout-shows-problem-with-putting-unions-above-law

    • 2009 was 13 years ago. Next year Gen Z kids born in 2009 will be journeying into the workforce. They are handed bailout bills from a time before they were born.

      The kicker is they can’t buy firearms for another 7 years and by then they’ll be fully indoctrinated making revolution out of the question.

      “Generally speaking, the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) sets the minimum age for employment (14 years for non-agricultural jobs), restricts the hours youth under the age of 16 may work, and prohibits youth under the age of 18 from being employed in hazardous occupations.”

  4. Ure foreshadowing the future .. Da Future (s) Shit Show ! weapons of mass financial destruction indeed.

    What is Re-Hypothication ? Hypothecating the Underlying Asset (Gold/Oil/Interest Rate..) = like Naked Short Selling..

    ReSelling “Underlying” you dont hold or own, several times/more than once on Same Exact Asset, ala musical chairs – All Hookers and Blow till the Music stops.

    Shall We Dance ? https://youtu.be/eHFoZa4wHPQ

    ? when does Xi declare his own Nazi CleanZing Op – and take down Taiwan? Should start with dropping a Russian made kinzal on the dark queen pelosers meeting in Taiwan ala Ruskie missile attack on Uke AF ofcrs & Weapons dealerz.

    In other international trade news; how much is a 6, 9′ Professional Female basketball worth ? One international arms dealer? – Hello Victor!

    *still waiting on that case of RPG’s

    still waiting..

  6. At the ranch, we’re still running on a 4g Verizon hotspot that’s close to 10 years old now. I’m researching alternatives to when the little “pucker” craps out. While not using anywhere near the power or speed Ure using it has served us well all this time and my wallet won’t open for much more than we already budget. Cable out here is a no go period.
    Granted, the wife gets testy when one of her shows, Bachelor for one my Gawd, runs wacky through the computer streaming due to network congestion and she says the OTA side sounds funny. I said that’s because they bleep out every other word. Icy Stare. Since I have no interest in much TV at all, the only thing we watch together is Yellowstone where they don’t bleep out any bad words. That streaming service seems to do OK over this device for now. Otherwise, we still have the big Yagi and rotator on the roof. All the reruns you can stand 24X7.
    Stay safe. 73

    • Try Rise Broadband… it’s a direct line of sight to cell towers. If you have 4G, there is probably a signal to be had. You can get 50 or 100 mbs depending on what you want to spend. I dropped Century Link DSL with 8 mbs. A small dish was installed by Rise, and I now get 50. All in $78/mo.

    • Fixed Wireless has made HUGE strides into rural areas over the last decade. Depending upon WHERE their tower is … WHERE you are … AND IF you have a line of sight from your high point to their tower, well you may be able to get fairly high speed internet (generally up to about 25meg/sec) for a very reasonable price.

      5g just came to my city location for $50/mo unlimited … but no need for me to go that route since I have TWO cable providers and AT&T 4 wire on the back pole. (since I am close to the AT&T box that converts 4 wire to fiber I can have up to 200 gig service via my AT&T 4 wire) YEP, I have been know to play them off against each other, time of the year to play that game again since my 1st year of cheap service just ran out. Last year I got them down to $25/mo for 100 gig unlimited, but it just jumped up to $45/mo unlimited so I need to see what I can do this year. Actually I think $45/mo is OK pricing, but if someone will do it for $25 why not?

  7. “The Truth (if’n you can handle the truth?) is this:”

    https://youtu.be/9FnO3igOkOk

    “Only for the poor? Biden administration announces $400 million for rural internet access. Bet if I changed my last name to something more – oh, you know, poor sounding”

    OTFLMAO… even with the last name of LOOB.. you wouldn’t qualify.. see you either don’t make enough to qualify.. or you make to much to qualify.. if your a refugee you get it handed to you.
    Like the property tax.. hmm you have to make less than the what you make on SS… to get fs you have to make less than seven hundred per two in a household and they consider 175 a month per person.. so a family of four.. has to make less than a thousand.. but.. for an adult the dispersed amount is seven dollars a day for food.. and fourteen a day for a child.. ( growing etc.) sounds like a lot but the average cost is fifteen dollars a day too eat and that was before inflation..
    that is why it was so hard the year we went without an income.. we owned a home.. (you can sell it) a car less than ten years old ( again you can sell it) so because of that.. and not living in a cardboard box.. anything they allow you to live is deducted.. nope you don’t get a thousand a month and then get another give away.. you get one and it is deducted from anything else you could qualify for.. at least here in the wastelands.. I have heard there are states where you don’t have to have any security to get loans and they hand money out to anyone at all..

    • LOOB,
      I know someone who used to work at a 2-1-1 benefits call center. It’s a system that screws honest people who are down on their luck but bends over backwards to reward those gaming the system (like why does every adult at a single address report themselves as a head of household?). She worked there almost a year, and her single instance of job satisfaction was when an individual with no visible means of support calls in to report buying an automobile, and needing to have her benefits increased to cover the car payment. The satisfaction came in entering the value of the newer model vehicle, knowing this would be counted as an asset and actually reducing the monthly benefit payment.
      My friend quit because the job consisted of either being lied to or having to tell honest people to sell their assets. Plus it was a call center job that stressed call completion over helping people.

      • I have heard that there are places in the usa that does that..
        Not around here in the wastelands.except if your a refugee.
        I use to think the stories of the woman that didn’t have a job but got a hundred grand given to her and the bank loaning her with a loan for a new half million dollar home and driving a new car was BS.. then the place the wife worked was bought by someone in a bigger city.. he bought several facilities..got a billion dollar loan..with a bad credit history and a long history of not paying his loans.. he then took payments from patients quit paying any of the bills or the loans and after a year list all of it buy kept the money received. Then got a 13 million dollar covid stimulus.. so I don’t doubt there are places in the usa that does that. Around here that wouldn’t happen and if it did they would catch it right away..no free ride in the wastelands..except refugees.. they get it easy..

      • Around here.. the banks require a job.. welfare doesn’t qualify as an income…there are dollar loan centers but even they require car title or collateral and a 30 percent per day interest..
        If you have bad credit or questionable credit you cannot get a loan, if you don’thave collateralyou cannot get a loan..if you have collateral you cannot receive benefits until you use those assets up. You are allowed 150.00 in excess assets if your on meficaid…because of past medical bills the only loan I could get was at 18 percent and a short term and for years and years I couldn’tbuy a roll of toiletpaperon credit…. the banker knew that I had been thrown under the bus by an employer playing the stock market and I knew him since he was in school..even today he is the only banker that will write me a loan….
        Even the the homes that the Jimmy Carter builds you have to have a steady job.. I knew someone that had failed to report ten dollar income and had to pay everything back.. they also check household members.. if there’s more than who’s listed they to loose all benefits and has to pay back what’s been given..

      • we were told you have to sell everything.. when the insurance plan went bellie up .. on my govt job.. the hospital made life hell for me.. I was told to go to my boss and ask.. they paid.. the boss.. at the courthouse said.. you make twenty five dollars a month to much to qualify for assistance.. I work for you .. your telling me to get the help.. I have to quit my job .. ( and sell all your assets.. ) I sold my first home to pay the bill.. then they threw a fit because I was working two full time.. and one part time.. I ended up with another hospital bill .. and worked off the debt to the hospital by working there full time for a year in exchange for it.. ( HELL YEAR)
        the year my wife and I went without an income.. there again.. you have to dispose of your retirement accounts by paying the bills with it.. and sell your home and car etc.. to many assets.. and live off of what we get for them.. well we made it.. we had just a few cents in the bank .. ( 24 ) until the first paycheck..

  8. Portland did not hit 111F the other day; it hit 101F. This is not unusual; we usually have three to five low 100F days in a typical summer, which this one has been. Our four year drought was broken by a rather wet spring this year and shows no signs of returning for at least another year.

    • Last year Portland had a 111, also a horrible record high of 116 degrees. It’s been terribly hot in Portland this week, but so far 102 degrees on July 26th is the highest for 2022. Nice thing about Portland, most nights are cool and refreshing.

  9. Ladies and Gentleman,

    Yesterday, following the ontime 0800 drop of the PN Report, the curtain strings were drawn back and Mr. Biden appeared 15 minutes late close to high noon and delivered remarks in the Rose Garden: “…Regarding His Covid-19 Infection and Recovery”. We are delighted. “…He’s back…” chuckled the commander in chief adopting the third person self possessing one to perchance switch channel to the Overlook Hotel.

    It was the BA.5 variant according to the president, but the medical team likely will remain silent on the matter for privacy reasons. Thank goodness for progress made in the virus fight during the current administration. The president was able to remain working in quarantine at the WH. Unlike “Mr. Trump who had to be helicoptered to the Walter Reed Medical Centre…”. Thank paxlovoid (sic). Strike that. Thank paxlovid. Covid mortality has dropped 90% since the beginning of the administration. (Covid mortality is up 20+% in the past two weeks according to Tuesday’s WH official schedule template.)

    “…let’s keep investing in these tools — vaccinations, treatments, tests, and more — so we can help making them available to American — the American people on a permanent basis. …

    Let’s get moving. When I say a “permanent basis”: as long as they are needed. …

    And now I get to go back to the Oval Office. Thank you all very much. [Applause]”

    Okay, folks, 7 minutes…that’s a wrap. See you tomorrow.

    • I salute the Jester as he seems able to wade through the WH vomitus without filling his own barf bag! Clothespin on the nose?
      I don’t intentionally watch TV news after working in the industry most of my life. The accidental reports that cross my daily path are sickening.

      • Live a better life! Dump your T.V. It is ALL nothing more than make-believe stories and make-believe actors in what the producers believe are authentic costumes. As far as being instructional, any young folks learn the three R’s as: ‘Rollin, ‘rappin, and ‘reloadin.
        That’s what T.V. is good for these days. All of the commercials are based on outright lies or extreme exagerations with a cute little skit to show the before and after of an always successful dose of the latest ‘medicine” and it’s side effects.
        Jeez, what is wrong with reality for a change?

    • HMM… did he really have the covid..
      I got it.. thought I was going to die for two days..
      wished it would hurry up two days..
      Had one day were I felt halfway human..
      then it kicked my butt for a month.. and I was vaxxed..

  11. “It’s a textbook symbiotic capitalistic relationship – congress funds LM, LM sells their wares to the U.S. ‘and’ our allies, then LM ‘donates’ some of their lucrative profits back to the congressmen and women who supported LM acquisition programs and/or have LM production facilities in their districts.”

    And most of US fools think that WE have a representative government, .-(
    Indeed for some !

  12. Took a trip over the mountains to the warehouse store on the other side of the island yesterday. Some things I am accustomed to getting there have not been available for several trips now. We got lucky just past noon when the last oven of roast chicken came out and we got the last ones off the rack ahead of the lineup behind us. No new chickens loaded into the roaster after that…. out for the day. Managed to escape under $400 with only a half-full cart. 89 gas here is $5.98 now. Premium well into six bucks.

    Belated thanks to Eleanor for the ‘Zon tip about Auguson farms freeze dried on sale. Topped up some long term storage stuff. And George you were wrong about my new, larger refrigerator… it’s full, and I haven’t gained a pound!

  13. This is a good one. Mexican locals don’t want the Americans anymore. When the $ goes over the falls, Ex Pats are going to woofed-up.

    Mexico City residents angered by influx of Americans speaking English, gentrifying area: report

    Mexico is home to 1.6 million Americans, according to the State Department

    An influx of Californians and other Americans has made its way to Mexico City, angering some locals who say they are gentrifying the area, according to a report.

    The Los Angeles Times report on Wednesday outlined how some Mexican locals are “fed up” with the growing number of Americans, many from California, moving to and visiting the country, which has contributed to a rise in rent and a shift from Spanish to English in some places.

    “New to the city? Working remotely?” fliers popping up around Mexico City reportedly said. “You’re a f—ing plague and the locals f—ing hate you. Leave.”

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