Housing: Still on the Rise

Hot off the Press Release:

NEW YORK, MARCH 28, 2017 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to www.homeprice.spdji.com. Additional content on the housing market can also be found on S&P Dow Jones Indices’ housing blog: www.housingviews.com

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.9% annual gain in January, up from 5.7% last month and setting a 31-month high. The 10-City Composite posted a 5.1% annual increase, up from 4.8% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.7%, up from 5.5% in December. 

Seattle, Portland, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last 12 months. In January, Seattle led the way with an 11.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 9.7%, and Denver with a 9.2% increase. Twelve cities reported greater price increases in the year ending January 2017 versus the year ending December 2016.
The below charts compare year-over-year returns for Seattle and Portland with different ranges of housing prices (tiers). Tier level analysis from 2011 to present for both Seattle and Portland’s yearover-year returns show housing prices in the high tier to be the most stable, while housing prices in the low tier are the most volatile. 

Graphically, it looks like this:

So did it help the futures?  Nope.

Repeat after me:  “Roaring Twenties, late.

Other Than Housing

Ures truly is deep into three books on the Great Depression.  One deals with the bifurcation of the Energy markets due to American fracking technology.  The idea being the U.S. will pay less for energy than the RoW in the future.

Second book deals with the potential for regional Depression in Asia where the Tigers are running out of steam, resource, and markets, particularly with American reshoring of manufacturing.

The third book deals with how the British fared in the Great Depression.  Curiously, there was actually something of an economic boom from about 1934 on, and that’s just damned interesting.

Why?

Well, one geopolitical idea that’s been around the web for the past 20-years is that there is a cyclical rotation of “Depression “centers” as Depressions seem to rotate around the Globe. 

Since the U.S. was the nexus of the Great Depression, this next (Greater) depression should move part-way around the world to the East.  Hence the economic and energy future of “the Tigers” of Asia becomes a fascinating comparison.

But more on that tomorrow for our www.peoplenomics.com readers, who I think would largely agree, get a tremendous amount of alt-thinking for just $40-bucks a year.

China Takes Djibouti

While the U.S. stands at the verge of energy independence (About 1 mbpd off if you count heavy distillates in the mix,per  Zeihan 2016) and the global markets figure out how this two-tier world will work, our Military Affairs whiz (warhammer) notes that it’s game-on in North Africa:

Shake shake shake – shake shake shake – shake Djibouti, shake Djibouti! [nods to KC and the Sunshine Band]

The Red Dragon is stepping out! While the logistics tail for this base is a long one, it establishes a footprint for China in the volatile N. Africa regions, just across the straits from Yemen and the Middle East.

<http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=2464>

With the S. China Sea faux islands finished, I view the Djibouti base as a ‘bookend’ of sorts. All China need to establish a viable sea passage to Djibouti is sail the northern Indian Ocean via the Malacca Straits. Total distance: 5826 nautical miles, or around three weeks at sea. For a fair comparison, the U.S. Navy, departing from the Port of Norfolk in the S. Chesapeake Bay, would travel 7242 nm with four weeks at sea. Travel from Pearl Harbor is even longer – 14,332 nm and eight weeks at sea.

Air supply is the fastest approach for either nation, but aircraft carry far less and transport planes are very vulnerable to anti-aircraft artillery and ground-to-air launched missiles.

Chess pieces are falling into place, or, to use another gaming analogy, a real world version of Stratego is officially underway. Add Russia to this mix, with Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel already stewing, and the game just got a lot more interesting.

As we explained to Peoplenomics readers last weekend, Zeihan sees Russia-Europe and Saudi-Iran as two of the major energy wars in the wings.

If you want to keep up with the grown-ups in the class, turn off the damn phone and read “The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America.”

Think of it as the Michelin Guide to how we get to WW III.

Too Many Column Inches

Hysteria sells newspapers, and pairs of eyeballs on the news channels at least equally good for the  corporate coffers.

Where once upon a time, newspapers ran news content incidental to advertising display ads, today it’s a different world.  Beset with too many good alt-news sites and tdoo many channels out of the “500-channel wasteland” we see stories that are often little more than repletion.

Ever-ready to make headlines, we notice how CNN is blaring how “There’s a Russian storm over Trump’s struggling presidency…”

Except for the fact we reported yesterday – as Brother Alexei (Navalny) was fined a whopping $350 for leading anti-government demonstrations last weekend – calling it a “storm” seems to us something of a stretch.

We do notice the term “struggling presidency,” though, and wonder if that wasn’t more their point. 

I trust you remember what CNN was called during the election cycle?  (Clinton News Network if the gingko biloba hasn’t kicked in for the day.)

To be sure, Gallup reports Trumps approval rating has dropped to 36 percent. But on the flip side while lower than Obama, it’s also higher than Reagans.  People so hate change, don’t they?

I don’t know what your definition is, but I usually save my label “struggling” for whoever is running D.F.L.

But I’m not the second-greatest land baron in the country, so what could I possibly know?

Good-bye Climate Change

President Trump will begin the process today of taking apart the government’s climate change marketing program.

While it’s true that ice levels in Earth’s polar region have hit historic lows this year, it’s also true as www.space.com reported in 2015 that “The Entire solar system is heating up! Scientists blame solar warming.”

In a way, we hate to see climate change going, but for the trillions of dollars spent so far, we don’t see any evidence of impact other than polarization and the monetization of a concept.

We think it’s questionable for governments to promote climate change, since it has been changing on its own – without government intervention and a global tax regimen – since before the Maunder Minimum.

We’ll update the Solar Cycle Progression in about 10 days when released.

Musk Ruins Our Novel

Elon Musk has wrecked plans for our next novel. “The Light Crown Project/CoDreamers” second in the David Shannon adventure series has been shelved for now. Thank you very much, Elon.

“”Musk is planning to connect brains with computers,” reports the Wall Street Journal.

Here is the problem:  You may remember reading – both in Peoplenomics first and then leaking over into one of our Coping Section reports (here), this is old news.

While we may have time to write the novel and bring it to market, the basic plot went like this:

Humans do “think” (process) by firing neurons in the brain.  This causes two things to occur. 

First is the generation of an electrical brainwave impulse – of the sort measured by EEG’s.  If you skipped med school, a short discussion of Electroencephalography is over here.

In the novel (on hold now) the brain’s ability to “generate light” as a by-product of Neuron firing is exploited.

Wired describes “The Unexpected Science of Manipulating Neurons with Light” in an article here.

Because I have some familiarity with instrumentation issues, I’ve always been partial to non-electrical channels for low-level signals. 

To explain the problem in radio terms (as the novel plot-line did) there is an innate ability to recover complex information that is absent from simple – relatively non-complex – wave forms.

Consider in the radio frequency (RF) world the case of a simple CW (continuous wave) keyed signal.  It may generally be recovered down to – but not below – the absolute noise floor.

On the other hand, a complex RF signal (such as FS-1045-FS-1051 ALE ) achieves an ability (via DSP in some iterations) to get below the nominal noise floor because Golay Interleaving is more robust.

Without Golay error correction, your wifi would suck.

Now let’s consider the Musk project:  If they go with a purely EEG approach to the brain, it may work in a well-shielded lab, but getting near noise-floor signals out of the lab environment and “onto the street” may be problematic.

For this reason, the novel (around the Light Crown Project theme) achieves “mind-to-mind connection using stimulus/response from the low level light from the trigeminal nerve package – which as you’ll remember is the bundle of trans-cranial nerves coming out of your temples.

In other words, making a “light proof hat” is easier in today’s world of electronica than making an electrically “noise proof EEG” for mobile use.

Even with a metal helmet (tin foil hat, lol) there is still a shielding issue with that spine and body that the interface sits on.  Light is much, much easier to control.

Sure, we’ll be watching for patent applications on the light channel (vs. electrical) thought recovery and we’ll jump in with prior art claims when time comes.  Sometimes our Peoplenomics reports serve as a nicely time-stamped “inventor’s notebook.”

Didn’t mean to get off into the weeds on this, but Musk does have some of the concept.  It will just come down to a matter of who can reduce things to practicum, since the hardware is 60% of the problem in brain-to-device or brain-to-brain work.

The rest is “only” software.

Engineers hate it when I say “only” about their brain-children, but libraries are so big, the art of programming anymore is calling the right code library as much as the genius algo development…

Note I didn’t even touch on the light-polarization correction problem associated with level-level detection and use…but it’s obvious that the “light” from your brain is not oriented the same as mine, so dynamic polarization correction is also required (and so disclosed becomes prior art as well).

Related, as long as we’ve done a magazine-length treatment of the topic, you did know that last year, this “light pumping” stuff that companies like www.Lumithera.com are working on to reverse age-related macular degeneration was validated last year in “light pumping” experiments done by NIH?

“A study in mice funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) shows for the first time that high-contrast visual stimulation can help damaged retinal neurons regrow optic nerve fibers, otherwise known as retinal ganglion cell axons. In combination with chemically induced neural stimulation, axons grew further than in strategies tried previously. “ (Details here)

Said rewiring may involve polarization/re-orientation changes, of course.

Whether Musk is sincere in his brain-to-brain scheme is something of an open question to us.  “Tesla Model 3 Production Lower, Price Higher (A Lot(: Morgan Stanley Analyst,” reports Forbes.

Brain-Brain comms is a sexy what? 

A Sexy Distraction maybe?

Bottoming Now?

We note that the DAX in Germany is back over the 12,000 level.  Japan came back a bit overnight, too.

But the Dow futures 45-minutes before the open were down 27.

In my own trading account, I went to cash yesterday.  Subscribers who understand Elliott and use our “brainamp.xls” spreadsheet will find that there is still a path down to the 2,200-2,250 trading area of the S&P.

The spreadsheet is downloadable from the Master Index page and is password-protected.

Comments

Housing: Still on the Rise — 17 Comments

  1. Hi John this is blpg==lpgas* did you see the new solar panels that are putting out 200% more ,because they’re using the vibrational rate of the light spectrum ,using at least three different light spectrums it’s increasing the output of the these new solar panels 200% , although I’m not impressed because the light spectrum technology can be used with LPG gas and increase it 200% also

  2. First of all, I do not believe you, Jon. After reading your 3 months worth of diatribes tells me this is not even you, it is one of your trolling alter egos. Climate change is not man made. Yes, the climate is changing, as you full know but it ALWAYS CHANGES, Jon. Thanks for my liberal laugh of the day.

    • There seems to be this huge disconnect between “climate change/global warming” and actual climate deterioration.

      The first is a business model with conflicting facts, legislation and such. The second is a moral responsibility to not ruin the land, and take a CONSERVATIVE approach to how we create energy over the long haul and do what’s right to preserve/conserve the quality of humanity.

  3. That’s awesome. I would love to learn more about your setup on your Tesla power wall.

    I’ve done some reading on it and love the ideas of solar and wind power.

    So far with Trump and I did vote for him, It seems like they don’t really want to fix anything, they just want to throw it all out and replace it with their own. What they seem to come up with doesn’t seem good for the average people. I don’t like that at all. So far not impressed with trump but there’s still time. I most certainly was not voting for Hillary.

    I’m in the HVAC industry. I fix things and I’m pretty good at it. I don’t understand why we don’t just fix the things that don’t work correctly. Seems like an awful waste of money.
    There’s people in my industry that will tell a little old lady she needs a whole new hvac system and all that’s wrong is a 7$ capacitor is bad. I call them crooks. To rob an old lady or a handicapped person is pretty bad.

    Congrats on the Tesla Power wall and ordering the car as well. I will always give credit where its due. From what you say, its due on these things and probably others.
    Honestly though I fail about 80% of the time putting a usb in correctly so wtf do I know.

  4. Is only me who sees BS in every Jon’s post?

    Jon the Troll, who is paying you for polluting the Internet with leftists agenda?

    P.S. If you love your “Tesla power wall”, you can keep your “Tesla power wall”. This is good device for math challenged people who cannot count money.

    • There is a distinction.
      Ure’s power system is for the storage of site-generated solar from 2 big MPPT charge controllers and 20 panels. It is only grid-interactive.
      Worse – the PTB Jon seems to love want to charge me even more to grid-tie and sell power back.
      Most people don’t ask the few important questions when buying any kind of home power system.
      1. Will it work when the grid goes down? Most power company supplied solar will not because it’s only designed to make money for one party – the electric companies.
      2. Is it going to recharge and keep providing useful power when the grid is down? The Tesla “answer” doesn’t unless you buy source – like a genset or solar – and then you need racks, panels, charge controllers and so forth.
      3. Does the system depend on time-differential electrical rates to make economic sense? Tesla doesn’t make much sense in areas with uniform rates – but may, depending on how much you are willing to pay for a system that will keep your how online for about 2 days in event of grid failure.
      The uninformed would usually fail to ask “What happens after two days?” If a system is charged from the grid, as my understanding is the basic Tesla wall is, then you’re SOL. Put the same number of FRNS into a gas generator or diesel or natgas, and then you have something. Natgas, with autostart, is reasonably reliable given a grid outage.
      But where these begin to fail the investment due diligence is when comesk to earthquakes and the like. In the end, move to the woods, make a summer cool room, well insulated, led only for lights and let average earth temp do the work.
      Otherwise the dictum a “foo and his goo are soon poo” definitely comes to mind. Especially for people who are not used to designing robust home power. Several articles on it – see the Peoplenomics main Master Index page.

    • Jon – you know that if you really push the agenda that “climate change is man made” then the powers that be may really take this to heart and try to “limit man”. Through population control, wars or other means. And truthfully – if man is the cause, then simply – man is the cause. Too many people demanding more and more per-capita resources from the earth which then depletes natural resources.

      I am not worried about climate. I am worried more about runaway economics making people have a very hard time affording to live here in the first place. Maybe that’s the way to get rid of people – through “economic strangulation”. And through food systems like factory farming that could fail if subsidies and weather affect its output. We are all eating poorly now due to the way food has lost its nutritional value. The wheat we eat is poor compared to historic grains. Kids are trained to eat “Kraft foods” products, chicken nuggets and other school-feed. Maybe this is also a way to limit lifespans and cut the population.

      Climate Change would have been a great basis for the Third Reich to play off of in the 1930s and why they would need to follow their plans. It all started with “good intentions” and blossomed into a group wanting to dominate the world. I don’t see this too far away from the harder-talking climate change people and their product companies such as from Musk. Many act as like Jon above, as if in a cult.

    • PS – from my post above, we read Jon eschewing “Musk” products.

      I own a Solar PV array. 8.1 KW array made of all USA sourced goods. Solar World modules. Power One inverters (now owned by ABB). US made racking. None made by Musk.

      I drive an EV. Chevy Volt. Made in Michigan from “about half” USA parts. None made by Musk.

      We can be green, fight climate change, drive electrically and have our own power – without following Musk. He is not “the answer”, but just a cult-like pop-science leader which only some will blindly follow.

  5. Well George if we withdraw as the world policeman it won’t be because of our vibrant economy, or the fact that we are oil independent, for our so called economy is little but smoke and mirrors, and our (if we achieve it)oil independence will come at a much higher price.
    And if we withdraw as the worlds policeman than that means we have to start closing at least 50% of our overseas bases which means they have given up on the empire building, and I just don’t see that’s going to happen,another good book out there “The Improbable War” which is much closer to the truth

    • It ain’t healthy for societies to have millions of unemployed young men with military training. The military is a form of job corp to keep the potentially dissatisfied satisfied enough to not uprise.

      That being said – close the 300 bases around the planet, bring em home, put Trump’s 54 billion into education, rail, high speed internet, battery development, nano tech and health care.

      Give them jobs making not breaking!

  6. George, your Musk thing above. I have a sneaky feeling that Musk is “playing us all”. He seems to get into discussions that are based on not only Coast to Coast AM topics but sometimes even stuff you may write about. I follow him and Tesla quite closely and think that his time in the spotlight may be shining now but eventually will fade, much like so many “shooting start” pop-culturalists of the past. All it takes is a tweet and a few words and thousands are boot-licking his ideas as plausible. Sorry to see any impact on your book but heck, who knows, the guy may even read your columns here. Just as Trump became a popular candidate in the same style that occurred in Germany in the 1930s, Musk has yammered on for years “above our collective heads” about stuff that is truly not economically or culturally plausible. By speaking a few millimeters away from reality, he has the ability to “baffle with BS” enough to make not only big money fund managers buy his story, but common man as well. And that is why we all should have paid much more attention in Chemistry, Biology, Math and other sciences classes in high school. Let’s not be fooled. Let’s try to be smarter on who we “follow”.

  7. The climate is absolutely ridiculous. I wish there were some honest inquiry into what was going on. Some say it’s getting hotter and it does seem to be the case but other sensors say colder. Even worse the Sun seems to have gone on sunspot vacation. Not good. The Sun’s behavior points towards a Maunder Minimum yet it’s getting hotter?????

    An excellent book on the Depression ad what’s happening now is ”
    The Great Reckoning: Protecting Yourself in the Coming Depression” by James Dale Davidson and Lord Rees-Moog. The only problem with the book is he was wrong, timing wise. He expected a complete fall out. He also bases his predictions on cycles but a major part of his predictions is on Metapolitics. Metapolitics being the amount of coercive force that can be used based on technology and how this balances Defense and Offense. An example is the microcomputer favors Defense as it puts more power into smaller units hands. This favors the break up of large entities. The Age of Gunpowder was the opposite and favored larger Nations. We’re leaving that age now.

    You can get the book used very cheap and if you skip where he talks about shorting T-bills and other financial tactics it is a fairly fast read. It has a great deal of interesting history and how that relates to Metapolitics. The set of books,(there’s three in the series),by them are probably some of the best books I’ve read.

  8. Hey G
    I know how good a deal the Peoplenomics at $40 a year is, but I think you should let people understand what kind of a deal that is. With 108 issues a year, that pens out at 37 cents an issue. THAT is giving it away!

  9. Just like putting a USB cord into the back of my computer. I seemingly have a 50% chance, yet I appear to get it wrong 80% of the time.

    Markets up right now 11:58 am edt.90 or so I toss the dart and say we’ll close down 10-20 on the dow.
    Now take the 10-20 prediction out and I have a 50% chance of being right, its either up or down, so 50%.
    Yet the market is like a a USB plug. wth

    Just a lil fun from the HVAC guy

    • It appears I’ve inserted the usb into the system wrongly again :-) The market closed up so umm yeah

      • Try a drop of paint or nail polish on the thumb side ,the difference in feel will be obvious next time, have a good day and may all beings be lovingly fulfilled so be it