The Futures this morning point to the Dow moving up 230-points, or thereabouts, at the open. But, before you run out and buy into the long side, a couple of words of caution, if we may?
For one, no matter how impressive the intraday run is, we need to see an even higher close before getting wildly bullish. Sure, a 200 point run today would be nice, don’t get me wrong. But that just puts us back at the overhead resistance level.
There’s a long way we could fall. Especially since this looks to us like a mostly Trump-based rally. Let me explain…
We know that it’s now outed that the FBI hired an agent provocateur to snoop in the Trump campaign. And the Inspector General of the Justice Department is onto it.
In an opinion piece today, The Hill called for “Stopping Robert Mueller to Protec Us All.” This is hugely meaningful since www.m ediabiasfactcheck.com rates The Hill and “center-left” in it’s view of things.
Why is the left about to cave? Well… Assuming you follow QANON posts…
Former CIA Boss John Brennan is sounding desperate as “John Brennan Fires Warning Shot to Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell After Trump Orders DOJ to Investigate FBI’s Campaign Infiltration.”
Brennan is desperate because he’s at the head of the ex-Obama posse likely to be weating an orange jump suit. This BS about “protecting national security” as we found out from the Devin Nunes House probe, has NOTHING to do with protecting legit intelligence assets. Its about protecting political use by democrat officials of thje FBI and DOJ.
In other words, ass-covering.
You need to read this Gateway Pundit story because the “phrase that pays” in this is: “Brennan is caught in a perjury trap over his statements about Hillary’s phony dossier in a May 2017 testimony to the intel panel.”
Looks (from here)_ to us like Trump has deftly managed not only to avoid the Robert Mueller/DOJ/Lynch-Clinton set up, but in addition, there are now inspectors general coming for scalps.
Now, says another The Hill story, Trump is demanding to know how the Hillary campaign got away with not turning over its hacked email server?
Oh, and to make it more interesting still, CNBC reports that “Mueller’s office reportedly tells Trump lawyer Giuliani that the Russia obstruction probe will wrap up by September.”
The democrats are making this conditional as best they can. Mueller’s wind-up is predicated on Trump doing an “interview.” Only a fool would do that…and I think Trump will decline. I think it’s clear Mueller can not indict. He can only issue a report and what he has right now is a “nothing burger” to bring back the left-wing media phrase.
Even September is too long a time-frame. All Mueller has bought for the millions of (your) tax money spent is NO collusion, and other than that meaningless infringements of others, what I think you’re seeing right now is democrats trying to work out a “negotiated stand down.”
Well, no. Not going to happen.
You don’t get to deploy KGB tactics in American politics as the democrats did by planting at least one provocateur in the campaign. You get a clean sweep and reset of the game…which appears to be what Trump, et al, are aiming for. House cleaning.
Now, let’s draw back to see why China is suddenly playing ball on trade.
This is simple, really: Chinese leaders have gotten very, very rich by playing ball with the American corporate left. But they’re bright-enough to see the leader of the AmeriLeft Gang will be headed to prison (it will take a while to work out, a year or more), but they can see Trump has the upper hand and is negotiating from his favorite position:
Which is why we will pay particular attention to travels of Barrack Obama, who as you know, went to extradition-free Tahiti last time this was threatening to come tumbling down on his attempted leftist coup. People tend to forget recent history, so review “Barack Hussein Obama “Holed up” in Non Extradition Treaty Country …”
We wonder if the passports of former Obama officials who may have had a hand in the conspiracy to stop Trump still have their passports?
Long and short of it, getting back to the financial picture, this is why you’re reading “Futures jump as U.S.-China trade spat put ‘on hold’.”
China has plans to be on the winning side, and they are bright enough to be edging toward Trump even though the (mainly dimwit) Left in America is still fighting the failed Obama/Clinton obstruction to constituting a de factor coup effort.
The other thing going today – and this is big macro econ stuff – is that Gold is dropping.
The Week Ahead:
First data point out this morning is the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Steady as she grows…
“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) ticked up to +0.34 in April from +0.32 in March. Two of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from March, and three of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in April. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.46 in April from +0.23 in March.”
(Thanks to Microsoft for wrecking the Snipping tool in the latest “upgrade” to Windows 10 when run in complex environments! An other “feature,” perhaps is this color-shift?)
Not much else in the way of ‘big’ headlines. There’s the Durable Goods Friday, but for the most part it’s a week of “talking Fed bosses” on the rubber chicken circuit and all eyes on politics.
Futures are still up 200, but we would expect politics to spill over into the markets at some point.
The Big Picture
Takes a bit of explaining, but my thinking goes like this:
Under the Obama/Clinton financial future path, America would be locked in to a high-inflation outcome as we tried to paper over the runaway spending by a corrupt congress. The only way to do this would be to “make up money” and that meant that buying anything of solid value – whether gold, real estate, or selling bonds (which would drop in price as inflation came roaring back) would have been a no-brainer.
Especially since a Pence administration would be – after the coup to oust Trump, have been more a caretaker outfit than builder presidency.
Now, though, since Trump is a negotiator, we would expect him to contain the deficit and with a lot of the RINO’s leaving (because there’s dirt of them over misdeeds behind the curtain yet to be revealed) there’s a good chance we could do an “earn out” and we could have a happily ever after for the grandchildren.
Which is NOT what the Left wants. They don’t want a return to core American values (hard work, thrift, innovation, technology breakthroughs) because it’s much easier for their purposes to have a divided country of a thousand genders and their sympathizers running socialist media.
I think China senses this change of sea state and is changing how they view things. America is onshoring capital with more reasonable tax policies and about all that’s left to figure is how to keep pension funds from imploding.
And even this is not insurmountable. That’s because cities and states that had “crooked growth” through giveaway programs would simply see their astronomical property values comes down to more common levels in America.
In other words, while land in East Texas may be $5,000 an acre, the same land a similar distance from Chicago, might be half-again, or more.
With a increase in property taxes to pay off excessive government pensions, though, land and home prices in Chicago could come down. A sort of Great American Leveling.
It’s a harmonic of what we saw in National Banking. The idea is that national banks keep the regionals in check because they spread risk over the whole country.
Places like Illinois seemed like gold mines in real estate for a while, but that’s likely to end to pay pensions. As it does, employers will stop looking at the oversized (unmanageable) cities and will take a fresh look at what’s really out there.
We have a huge country with thousands of small towns ready for business. Many, at least in Texas, have been “hollowed out” by the technological revolution. Yet today in cities like Paris, Texas, that we happened to drive through this weekend, there are office buildings half-empty because computers displaced the local people needed 50 years ago before computers.
Today? These places are ripe for rediscovery. Office space is there waiting to be redeveloped in towns which still come with family values and a 7-minute commute.
Takes some squinting to see it sometimes, but America has a very bright future is we all focus on what makes for a good life instead of what teachers are spewing as special.
We can be great again as a country. To those critical of American exceptionalism, please go to the nearest airport and leave.
Things could be changing shortly – and for the better – so anti-American instigators and street-corner radical won’t be needed to build the future of this great-again land.
Could we have a depression along the way? Well, that’s up to radical leftists, the trillions of the drug cartels, and how other countries read us, isn’t it?