Big Trouble in River City. And in Texas,. California, Washington, and wherever else you want to look.
Although, if you live in the Northeast, here’s a peachy example of how media-egocentric the Northeast is: CNN blares “California wildfires now larger than New York City and Boston Combined.” See how this works? The media is NE-centric as hell and this attitude spills out at every turn, unchallenged.
We have plenty (in fact too much) to say about the California fires in a moment, but let’s begin the week with the REAL news: Making a buck (or many). We have a quadruple witching week Thursday and Friday, consumer prices Wednesday, some data to watch tomorrow. But above all, let me walk you through where Bitcoin is – which if you haven’t guessed it, is in a do or die. Free lesson in how to do a simple predictive chart, too…
So let’s consider Bitcoin first.
Here’s a price chart of typical prices over the past several days courtesy of www.bitcoincharts.com. Marvelous resource.
Let’s take this one step at a time so you can see how this is done and you can use this yourself.
Step 1: Draw a simple price channel.
Using a good graphics program (we us CorelDRAW Graphics Suite X7). Use the snipping tool in Win-10 and snip out the area you are interested in charting from the web. Paste it into a Corel workspace and lock the object. (If you don’t, it will slide around, you’ll get pissed and want us to do tech support and we hang up on such calls.)
Click on the Corel “line tool.” Look for the recent high in Bitcoin. Draw a line from the top (x on this chart) down to the next major top in the decline (y) and go well past it…
Now, copy (crtl+c) and paste (ctrl+v) this line. Don’t worry that it is not visible. Corel pastes the new object right where the source is. So just activate the pointer tool, click on the line and slide (your newly copied line) down to position Z. Extra credit if you make the second line red as I have done above.
This is now the descending price channel.
Do the same thing from the low going up, instead.
Now we have two price channels.
We know under Elliott wave rules that we should see channel “touches” on all but perhaps the final impulse. I have (for the sake of discussion) labeled 1,2,3,4,5 as an initial down move. And what we are in right now (as of press time) looked like an a-b-c correction (or bounce).
Today this should resolve. We could have a small decline and then go up, turning this into a five wave advance OR we could be done at the A-B-C down.
After this, it becomes child’s play to use one of the subscriber tools (to www.peoplenomics.com) to plug in our “brainamp.xls” spreadsheet (from the Peoplenomics master index page) and estimate how far up, or down, the moves will go.
Should be an interesting outcome, either way. A 1-hour price spike isn’t what we’re after, though. We are looking for the main trading action…as that’s where the trends will emerge. Patience!
Then There’s Tomorrow
That’s when the Fed meeting begins. The thing you need to know is that the Fed has been yammering (or just Yellin’) that they will be raising rates. But everyone with half a brain knows it’s all smoke because the Fed really CAN’T raise yet because they have crap left on their balance sheet (unloading paper sacks of questionable loans is harder that unloading Bitcoins, you see) and the market knows it’s a bluff.
Flip over to the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) and click on the 5-year view and you’ll see (as my PhD DSP pal Jas Jain insists) the 36-year bull market in bonds don’t look over.
The Discontinuity of 2018
That’s the topic for Peoplenomics Wednesday. We’ve seen this several times and it’s called The Debtberg.
It’s what’s presently rolling over on the Fed, although I’m kinda partial to the “riding into a box canyon” concept, too.
Either way, they can’t turn around, and when everyone figures they can’t, they will just have to make sure to pass pending legislation which would outlaw Bitcoin. I trust you know that Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz reportedly thinks Bitcoin ought to be outlawed?
If you think I’m overdoing the Bitcoin deal? See the NYT DealBook Briefing: How Bitcoin Futures Add to the Trading Hype.
Meanwhile, Hotly anticipated bitcoin futures ease off after 22 percent surge. Still, trading was so rabid as to pop circus breaker (sic) twice.
Like wampum, tulips, the Radio Trust, No-Doc loans and…lots of junior miners on the Vancouver stock exchange, Bitcoin too will likely run it’s course. Gold rush fever passed and left us with California, which tees up this morning’s psycho-George Rant du jour:
Climate Monetizers Discover Fire
Jeez, Louise. People (which we loosely interpret to include CaliGov Jerry Brown) are stupid. Ure’s truly can’t believe the lies people will swallow!
They actual buy into the New Big Lie that JBrown (and others) are spreading about the fires. Missed it? Her you go: “California Fires are the New Normal” as Brown was pandering it this weekend.
Ya’ll ain’t gonna like what I have to say next because a) I’ve lived amongst the ‘Fornians, b) I happen to own a small tree farm, and c) I come from a family of firefighters. And d) did I mention that I’m a science-driven prick when it comes to data? Not like those climate liars caught just in the last month making up sea level data to bolster The Big Climate Lie! (If you don’t like Breitbart, try the Tea Party site’s UNREAL: Climate Alarmists Caught Red-Handed Faking Sea-Level …)
Now for some ugly facts (Remember,, we lived in L.A. and suffered through record floods and fires burning up the hills northeast of Burbank…so yeah, been there, lived that… )
#1. The main reason that there are fires is California environmental overdose cases have restricted private property owner’s right to keep brush from building up.
Here’s how the process works.
When it rains in SoCal, within a year or three the brush gets really thick. Especially in ravines.
Due to environmental regs, the zealots in CaliGov have decided to save every dead-end species that (sorry, but here’s the facts) don’t have a future, anyway.
“If the land is outside of the existing County Multiple Species Conservation Program (MSCP) which covers the southwestern portion of the County, up to 5 acres can be cleared without a permit when associated with an existing dwelling. If the land is within the existing MSCP, residential land (developed or vacant) up to 5 acres in size that is outside the Pre-Approved Mitigation Area (PAMA) can be cleared without a permit. Residential land (developed or vacant) up to 2 acres in size that is inside PAMA can be cleared without a permit. Clearing in excess of these limits is allowed with an approved Administrative Brushing and Clearing Permit from Department of Planning and Land Use (DPLU). Please contact the DPLU Zoning Information Counter, at (858) 565-5981, to determine whether your property is within MSCP and/or the PAMA designation or to obtain information on the Administrative Brushing and Clearing Permit. 2,3…”
No telling how long that process takes. Here’s ALL that many homeowners are allowed to do proactively:
” You may clear up to 100’ from any improvement on your property as defined under Section 68.402 of the County Weed Abatement Ordinance without a permit. Depending upon fuel loads and topography, the Local Fire District may require additional clearing. This additional clearing does not require a permit so long as you have a letter from the Local Fire District specifying the amount of additional clearing required. “
OK, let’s see: Working people would have to take time (off work) to get with the local fire department…and then…who knows?
Here’s a stupid-person-bet-of-the-year (SPBOTY) for you: “I bet 100 feet of clearance from a ravine loaded with dry brush is all the distance I need to save my home and lifetime collection of belongings from an up-canyon fire stoked by 60-mile per hour winds…”
Duh! Come on, seriously? HOW ‘effing stupid would you need to be to take that bet?
Like California hasn’t had droughts before? HUGE ones in the 1800’s – but the dastardly climate bastards won’t own up to them, because it doesn’t fit their narrative. Go read up on 1841 and don’t tricked by the climate panderers. This sh*t happens with regularity! Big lies, oft repeated, and all that.
Thus, we conclude the majority of the fire danger is from hot air alright…Sacramento sourced.
Skinnerian Operant Conditioning theory hints this is preemptive talk because all the money in California is needed for state employee pensions and they’re not likely to have any money left to fight fires. The real new normal is legislative liars.
Sadly, for the victim/residents of the nation’s most misguided state: Southern California’s Thomas fire grows in size despite efforts.
#2 If it’s REALLY “Climate Change” (and not government/regulation-caused fires as the data supports) how does rainfall, year-to-date look this year compared with each of the past five years in SoCal? Maybe if there was significantly LESS rain the Climate Pimps would have some basis in fact. (You do believe in science and not political bullshit, I hope?)
OK: Here’s some pretty damn inconvenient rainfall data (right out of the NOAA databases)…remember this is an annual rainfall Jan 1 to Dec 10 each year for comparison:
Oh, golly….so if this is “climate change” it translates to another half inch of rain in San Diego (above the 5-year average), up 5-3/4th’s of an inch in Los Angeles (basis KLAX) and up 3-inches at the Burbank airport.
By God, bring on climate change! If this is it…and spare us the data-impaired idiots who have thrown-in with the global climate czar wannabes and the cadre of global climate tax revolutionaries, maybe there’s hope for the Southland…
Here’s the Big Picture which evolves from studying power vacuums: In the old days, the “Lefties” loved their iconic Soviet Union. then it fell. Ooops!
Until Warming and Change when the fraud of warming failed at Copenhagen (*how soon they forget), these leader-lutionaries were hero-less when the FSU crashed. (Former Soviet Union for the slow-minded.) That social disaster proved you can’t afford a free lunch for everyone. Even in the various “worker’s paradises” touted by the Left.
Here’s a secret: The numbers still don’t work. So now, they’re going for a global tax scam.
How can they claim to lead and be the erudite “better than us great unwashed” and not be able to understand history? Easy! Historical revisionism. “Correct the data” and “rewrite the books” because in the view of the sicko’s, it’s all for our own good. They have decreed it so.
By cherry-picking data, and putting money on the table (only for) researchers willing to parrot “the Party Line”) it is no wonder the data-impaired will follow them.
Come one climate scientists: How come there was a YUGE California drought in 1841? Too many freeways?
Climate isn’t about the horned toad…it isn’t about the whales. It’s about the ‘effing money. And POWER and above all, the POWER TO TAX.
Not that it will matter in five years: By then we anticipate Obama will be installed as the global climate czar (or worse) with the clown posse of Gore, Brown, and other sycophants “leading from behind” will be picking your wallets and stealing your dreams. “Climate Change!” Let’s all hear it for Climate change!
The good news? *Yes, there is some good news.
We can accurately forecast that when the economy flips and the real collapse of the debt-saturated paper-products called “money” begins to fail, we will see THAT too blamed on climate change!
When oil depletion arrives (it never sleeps!), they will blame THAT for Climate Change.
I can see it now: “Bitcoin collapse caused by climate change!”
Gemme an “Amen Brothers and Sisters.”
Toss me the crack pipe, would-jah? ViseGrips while you’re at it…,maybe if I pinch my arm hard enough, I’ll wake up on the right planet instead of this one….
FUATCT (F-blank Us All To Climate Tears). We now return you to your regularly scheduled life in progress…
Enjoy the show…
Last climate change note after the weekend snows: Threat of icy roads keeps some schools closed in Georgia. Climate! Climate! Run from Street!
US Department of Useless Distractions
Redfin Predicts Homebuyers Will Leave High-Tax States in 2018 If SALT Deductions Are Eliminated. Which is why I have started a campaign to change the names of small towns in Texas to forward-looking names.
I’d like to see Palestine, Texas renamed Tomorrow, Texas. Even something like Amazing, Texas would be more suited to the world’s 1/2-second attention span and brand-saturated thinking.
In the interest of free marketing advice, I think some cities in Ohio have some politically-correct options left.
“Columbus, Ohio” ought to be “Native, Ohio” and with legalized gambling, how about Sin-sin-nightly, Ohio? We await the Consumer Financial Protection Whozzits forcing the name change to Lost Wage, Nevada. But I digress…a fair ways, too.
Oldies Butt Goodies
As Ex-model accuses David Cassidy of groping her in 1985. That was (for the math-impaired) 32-YEARS ago.
On the other hand Nikki Haley: President Trump’s Sexual Misconduct Accusers Should be Heard. She got her resumes out?
Putin Gets Gassed
We mentioned last week (forget if it was here or on Peoplenomics) that now that Israel has a gas pipeline deal from the new mega Leviathan field offshore (from off Lebanon) that the usefulness of a war in Syria just bit the dust. With no land needed for an undersea pipeline, the old KGN strategic think seems to see it as we do.