I don’t think so, but the devil is in the details.
When I looked earlier, markets had taken on a slightly bearish bias as the Dow was heading toward a lower opening. But the news du jour that we should focus on is the Producer Price Index report that’s just out:
“The Producer Price Index for finished goods edged down 0.1 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Prices for finished goods decreased 0.2 percent in October and 0.1 percent in September. At the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods declined 0.5 percent, and the crude goods index fell 2.6 percent. On an unadjusted basis, prices for finished goods advanced 0.7 percent for the 12 months ended November 2013.”
About the only other news might be the business inventories report from Census Thursday that reported:
“Manufacturers’ and trade inventories, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-month level of $1,691.1 billion, up 0.7 percent (±0.1) from September 2013 and up 3.6 percent (±1.5) from October 2012.
What does that mean? With cheap money (low int. rates) why not put stuff into inventory? If it begins to look like the Fed will actually try to ease markets off the financial crack (free money/quantitative pleasing) we’ll be staring at the best Valentines and Presidents Day sales in years.
“Come on, Ure, what’s going on?”
Well, since you asked, global markets are on the verge of precipitous decline.
The simple theory is that in order to understand the US markets, you need to look at the global direction because the USA is a subset of that.
Sure, there may be times (short) when the USA markets are moving counter to the Global Index, but it doesn’t happen long or often.
So, by looking at the Global Markets, as they were trading at 7:45 AM eastern time, you can see that the whole freaking world is about to cross my Trading Model to the downside. OR, we could take a hard bounce UP and (literally) save the world.
Might be hard to pull off, however, especially since Jim Cramer at CNBC thinks the market is nuts in putting and enterprise value of $26-billion on Twitter which has no profits yet… “I want my family to love me like the market loves Twitter…” is damn good insight. Well done.
While a short excursion lower than the model’s long/short arbitrator line is possible, I’m pretty sure that how today’s outcome rolls will determine how markets go into Christmas.
If the USA market don’t rally pretty good today, then the odds that the usual Santa Claus Rally will be late (or has already been marched out back, handed a ciggie, and is being blindfolded) becomes the likely outcome.
Me? I’m just guessing this will be tense day, bulls come in, market gets one last pop to the upside before the gates of hell open in 2014.
THIS IS NOT TRADING OR FINANCIAL ADVICE. It’s just a way of looking at things. Friendly PPI numbers this morning will help, but so will passing the budget deal through the House…and now it looks like that can has been kicked down the road again.
So that could be cited as a reason plus whatever else comes along…at least that’s how it feels. It’s cost me tens of thousands to “bet on my gut” though, so that’s why I developed a personal model. You should build one for yourself, too, if you’re serious about Beating the Man.
But as to expecting one more leg to the rally up from 2009? Go back to that Producer Prices report: Crude goods (raw materials) are down 2.6% in the last year. But finished goods prices are up 0.7%. That’s got to be good for manufacturers and before we collapse, someone besides me as got to be able to figure this stuff out.
Futures are down smartly. Whether this is a “buy” or “bail” point is what keeps life interesting. A little low-cal Christmas crash, anyone?
More after this…
Moon Dance: The Press is Missing!
A couple of years back (in the Peoplenomics) archives, I explained how to lash up a good “free to air” home satellite system. And, since we watch CNC World, the English-language version of Xinhua, near as I can figure, we get a MUCH different take on the goings on – on the moon.
Now, about the same time, here in the last couple of months, LiveLeak has been getting traction with their report about the “MOON LANDING HOAX: Van Allen Radiation Belt.”
If you watch the videos on that page, particularly the second on, you’ll see pretty clearly what China may be up to.
So they do the soft landing of Chang’e-3. But their real agenda is likely, as I have told you before, to take detailed pictures of the [purported] US landing sites.
What would happen in America if (in what sounds like a fine plot for a movie) the Chinese came back and presented evidence at someplace like the UN, that the US never really went to the moon?
And for a plot thickener, the President Kennedy got onto it and was….well, THAT would make one hell of a novel, now, wouldn’t it?
Back in the day, the corporate world used to be more auspicious about timing, but seems that’s another one of those practices now relegated to the scrap heap of history.
By-the-by…speaking of the NY Post, John Crudele’s take on the just passed budget compromise is nearly the same as mine. I call it much to do about nothing, and although Crudele’s more gentle, the thinking is on a parallel track.
The Pelosi “suck” remarks may sound substantive, but like so much else out of Washington, it’s more theatrical than meaningful. And Im sure THAT just surprises you do end…
Although it’s not getting much traction in the US/MSM (for obvious reasons) there is a group of about 30 congressmen who have begin action to sue the Chief Executive for failing to follow the laws of America, as passed by Congress.
You and I’ve talked about this whole issue of fealty to law, and I’ve given you some examples and some of these are in the lawsuit.
Sword of Sebelius
Remember a while back, I told you how HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius would probably have to “take one for the team” and would, in the end, likely be let go? Or be asked to fall on her own sword, metaphorically speaking?
Well, we may want to add by way of the jailhouse as being one of the exit strategies, too, now that Congressional House Oversight Committee boss Darrell Issa is threatening criminal charges of obstructing a congressional investigation if HHS doesn’t order contractors to turn over documentation in the Obamacare probe.
Why, this is getting to be fun, ain’t it? A regular “he said – she said” kind of thing. Go read the story…and then go back to the previous one and rethink the suing Obama on failure to enforce the laws of this (once) Great Nation.
Military Pay Grumbles
Lots of (retired .mil) readers are ticked about the latest cost of living “adjustments”. Take, this email from reader Craig, for example:
Just got my retired military pay statement reflecting our 1.5% pay raise effective at the start of the year. However, upon close examination, the government kept the extra 86 cents by ROUNDING DOWN to zero so my actual pay raise is 1.466%. So I figure if they do this to all 2.2 million military retirees, assuming a 50 cent round-down on average, the government just stole a cool $1.1 million. Pretty sneaky I’d say, and reminds me of Richard Pryor’s role in “Superman III” or the movie “Office Space” where they “salami sliced” (penny shaved) from their bosses. Of course this practice is illegal. I wonder if they did this to Social Security recipients too.
Legal? Illegal? More than likely, the PR department that put the press out about how the raise was 1.5% didn’t know what they were doing. After all, it would sound even meaner if the pay hikes has been presented at 1.4% instead of 1.5%.
I’m pretty sure, this is all perfectly “legal” – it just ain’t 100% ethical, perhaps. But, seeing as “what’s legal” is defined by those in power, don’t get worked up. Put 1.466 into Excel and it will round up to 1.5% when you drop decimal places.
Probability or Peculiarity?
Remember the release of president Obama’s birth records by the state of Hawaii? Which was followed by the [purported] birth certificate being released on the internet where it was promptly taken apart by conspiracy buffs?
Well….the woman who ordered the waiver that allowed Obama to get certified copies of his birth cert which were signed by his mother, a registrar, and a delivery doctor, has died in a place crash in Hawaii.
I won’t speculate on the crash, except to say the Cessna Caravan with a turboprop is a very robust platform, not prone to failures, nor on the fact no one else aboard died. I’m sure the “probability or peculiarity” question will be all over conspiracy sites this weekend.
More in the Coping section…