Trading Box Theory

by

Hmm.  Bunch of fresh data beginning with big layoffs in Tech:

Challenger Job Cut report is just out:

“U.S.-based employers announced 76,835 cuts in November, a 127% increase from the 33,843 cuts announced in October. It is 417% higher than the 14,875 cuts announced in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

November marks the sixth time this year that cuts were higher in 2022 than in the corresponding month a year earlier.

Sucks.

More data?

How about the new unemployment filings, which have been drifting down?  A bad thing if you’re the Fed looking for indications that inflation has been whipped:

Even more amusing is the Personal Income and Expense report from BEA:

“Personal income increased $155.3 billion (0.7 percent) in October, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $132.9 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $147.9 billion (0.8 percent).

The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent (table 9). Real DPI increased 0.4 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.5 percent; goods increased 1.1 percent and services increased 0.2 percent (tables 5 and 7).

Impact Assessment

Many moving pieces in play in finance right now:

There are two correct answers.  One is Trading Box theory.  The other is sit in cash and wait for the madness to lift.  We usually go with choice #1.

Trading Box Theory?

This is my own personal toolset for making sense of chaotic trading situations.  It’s part Elliott wave (Prechter, Frost, et al) and part regression channels (Raff) plus part spreadsheet.  It has kept us out of trouble many times.

To construct a trading box (example below), when a major trend direction is broken, you watch until what MAY be the first leg up has completed in the new trend channel.

Then, using your graphics skills you draw a simple box.  The one on the left.

When you think you see a suitable low, the box is copied and placed with its lower left corner on the recent low.

If you get this right, this will be the bottom of Elliott wave 2.  Then, you extend the right side of the box to the right…and wait for the Wave 3 rally to at least equal Wave 1 – which will usually (but not always) poke out the top of the new righthand trading box.

Since we have now “poked out the top” of the right-hand trading box, the way is now open for a major decline to begin.

HOWEVER, there is still another spreadsheet in play.  And that’s what is called OpenBrain.xlsx on my computer and we explained that a long time ago on the Peoplenomics subscriber side.

The theory is that all market moves are semi-predictable at some scale.  And knowing this, we can piece up how an advance might work into the future.

Right now, as you can see, we have completed a minimum Wave 3 rally but we could still go several hundred points higher:  (Look at the Wave 2 area because we seem to be in Wave 2 now:

Now We Synthesize a Bit

We know that we have already hit the 50% retracement level.  But, we also see the Fibonacci 0.618 level is only (34,454.85 minus 34,290.05 = ) 164.82 point overhead. (Basis our Aggregate Index)

So, how might this all play out?

My dart toss for the next day, or two, would be for the market to decline for a while today, and then rally going into the weekend and put on the 165 points to make the ideal Fibo retracement.  Dream on, George.

Still, this might be supported by dueling rail hype ahead of the weekend and then if the rail strike were to arrive this weekend, the market could decline a good bit next week.

Then?  All it would take would be a full 1/2 percent (already baked in the cake per Chair Powell’s previous remarks) and the market begins really sliding.

My “half-off by Christmas” may have been a bit (how to say this?) temporally exuberant. But, all in the fullness of time.

Two hours before the open, it was looking like things could fall either way (up or down) today.

Except that swing trading tools were looking seriously overbought in the differential parabolic SARs, the Fast and Slow Stochastics, and the MACD was looking peaky.  A great deal will depend on money flows ahead of the Fed meetings and whether the Fed wants an even bigger bubble to deal with down the road.

Meantime, our sense in whales are in retreat on the Cryptos and since Bitcoin peaks and market peaks line up well, (refer to Nov. 8, 2021, for example) our suspicion is they are lining up again right here, right now.

All that’s left is whether the high yesterday was “IT” or whether we will get a rally between now and about Tuesday to put the final points on the board for the Fibonacci peak.

Then, as reader Len in Australia says, it may really be time to short the guts out of things.

Our usual disclaimers apply:  This is not trading advice.  This is entertainment.  But a special sort:  Entertainment along the financial front.  And anything can happen:  A new booster shot, aliens landing, NSNWs going off in Ukraine, or Chinese forcefully reunifying.  All left field events that can muck up the Sugarplum Fairies of the delusional day trader. IoW:  You’re on your own, Sport.

GIGO Sort

Most people (and this is based on over half a century of news chasing!) do not read the news with appropriate purpose.

In other words, when you read the news, are you searching for clues as to which way a (tradeable) future is going to fall?  Average people don’t.  They instead scan headlines for “dopamine.”  (We prefer cash, thanks!)

But with this in mind, let’s see what the GIGO (garbage in, garbage out) department has in store for us this morning, shall we?

A few more players (102) were “at the trough” for the NY Fed’s repo operations Wednesday. Markets Data Dashboard – FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK (newyorkfed.org)  This is useful news.

You already knew that elections in America are for sale, right?  Almost $80 million is spent on TV ads for Georgia’s 4-week Senate runoff.  Not news, really, except to put a number to it.

Trump’s Trials are rolling along, but we don’t expect much other than a left-wing media headline frenzy on conviction: Trump Organization’s criminal tax fraud trial heads to closing arguments.  Of course, he will be convicted.  But look for a stay on appeal since this is a trial in democrat land. Not likely to move markets, either way.

Free lunch and electioneering via bribery isn’t going well for the D-team: Student loan forgiveness: Biden administration dealt another setback in court in effort to revive student loan debt relief policy.  Another con of simple people.

Programmable Humans are about to become even more obvious: Elon Musk expects Neuralink brain chip to begin human trials in 6 month. We already have programmable humans – it’s just the downloads are presently air-gapped between your eyes and your screens.  

Hack the Pope?  Uh huh… The Vatican Is Buzzing With Conspiracy Theories as Hackers Take Down the Pope’s Website.  We wonder if all their miles of secret books and docs were revealed if the pressure wouldn’t lighten up a bit?  I mean from the coverup of Moses going to a landing of ETs and all that, ahem.

Health: Really worth a read:  What do people think of intuitive eating?  A qualitative exploration with rural Australians | medRxiv

ATR: Microsoft 22H2

AS an almost 74-year old dude, what should I be doing right now?  I should be at my hobby bench working on a (still in the box) ship model that’ll be over three feet long when done.

Or, we should be playing Stardew Valley to see how closely the kids in programming have gotten to the reality of farm/ranch life here in the East Texas Outback.

What I SHOULD NOT have to do is spend a full day trying  to make Microsoft 22H2 (Win11) work on my Dell from Hell (64 GB XPS 8950).

First, it would not install via conventional Settings>Update.

After going through “sfc /scannow” and various flavors of “dism” the only way forward was to install via an ISO.  Which was done with the “Mount” command.  This worked, actually.

Unless you insist on having working audio (another hour of troubleshootizing) and then wanting the (easier on eyes) night light settings to work.  *(Another hour, thanks.)

Knock on wood, it now works about like 21H2 but I’m questioning my sanity for even trying to keep our computers secure. Which is why one box is kept right up to present IT pro levels.

My attitude is slowly moving over into the Linux camp; we now have 3 computers up on Mint.

The funny part is?  They all do mostly the same stuff.  Web, document writing, reading PDFs and things like that.  Even the line in media has greyed out with VLC offering a media player  that  “Runs on all platforms – Windows, Linux, Mac OS X, Unix, iOS, Android …”

As the late, great Billy said “But Wait!  There’s More!”

I picked up a few more “smart switches” to add to our voice-controlled house.  Now, come to find out that Amazon doesn’t support TP-Link Kasa on my humble 7th gen Fire 10HD.  Circa 2018.  OBO now. Which caps OS updates at 5.7,  The current build to support everything is?  7,3 plus.

All driving me to invent new home convenience items.  Like a chair-level power switch that will control a regular power strip.  There are, good reader, just a lot of things in Life where the addition of a layer of technology does little but suck you deeper into the electronic dependencies.

As I lay out in my soon to be released book (The 100-year Toaster) maybe in our drive to do “isn’t that cool” stuff, we should pause more often to ask the biggest questions of all.

Why?  And what’s the Cost?

Not to be a Luddite, but the world ran just fine prior to radio, television, computer networks and alien technology recovery.  We may not have lived as rich or as connected.  But, in that world, people tended to be fully present, most of the time.

Somehow, I don’t see that “present and connected with next human over” when we look around today.

Which is why we don’t get off the farm much.

Write when you get rich,

George@Ure.net

42 thoughts on “Trading Box Theory”

    • No Surprise, and JPM has their tendrils in Coinbase… andddd….. that naked bathing operation will sort itself out in due time. What everyone’s wet dream is right now is for some entity with physical BTC to unlock it and put it into a proof of stake address. That would provide the naked [shorting] ones those precious nanoseconds that the transaction takes the to pass through the man in the middle blade servers on wall street which are installed between the entry and exit rail [servers] the time they need to in effect to “touch” “hold” physical BTC and fill/cover their naked trades LOLs. This is going to get very interesting. My understanding is that Grayscale was able to demonstrate proof of reserves without cracking open the secure wallets.

      Some have compared Wood’s genius to that of Buffet’s. Be greedy when there is panic on the street. Be selling when people are euphoric.

      https://www.yahoo.com/video/cathie-woods-buys-dip-ark-141356388.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGFdpHnW0-b2bKy88_Zoifa4A9tWNxJEhrB9J9U5caKaaC1oS3zEKxib63nRaOMHlJSgBwlpbVXrFOnfjl16lnpkto0wffjVlpTdJPIfbhBpi5jCk0ppLXkIplIDw9uqhHIS–Zf6zAhJmX35wc0Pn-9J99tJ0nFuqXQqfs6HUEv

      At a 41% discount to NAV GBTC is cheaper than buying physical BTC. Of course you can see the design pattern here as an extension to the Gary G FTX operation. All are ways in which to force the collapse of financial instruments and force disgorgement of the underlying BTC collateral. I believe that Terra and Luna projects made margin in bankruptcy court preventing Jaime and his merry band of pirates from getting their hands on the physical BTC. All that trouble and legal risk to get your hands on BTC. Why are so much energy and resources being spent on something thats going to Zero? LOL. Just like all the fuss being made over a 40 cent token at SEC. Answer: Because the powerpoint presentation that we weren’t invited to view has BIG plans for both in the “reset” plan.

      Cliff Highs’ BTC impossible call [insert log normal hockey stick price curve here] appears to be getting closer.

      Got Blockchain?

  2. “Neuralink brain chip”

    People will go for the brain chip.

    Steroids in athletes. Viagra in porn stars. Adderall in IT staff. Brain chips for the disabled.

    If you need a lawyer will you hire the chipped with the entire history of law at their command or the anti-chip lawyer opting out on principle? Heart surgeon?

    In order to compete we’ll need the upgrade chips.

    All the good investments are always out of reach. Spacex is another. Boston Dynamics….

  5. I couldnt say it better, couldnt lay out the current predicament better than this little diatribe – https://t.co/GVP6p6ukrD

    Prolly should just ignore and move on – as theres some tasty new Sheeple Chow being rolled out for us all due the generosity of darth squab & WEF’ers.
    They really love Humanity – See climate bullsceisse global propaganda operations.
    Now that we have scientific proof of covert19 vaxx crossing dna in the liver – technically speaking vaxxed no longer fit the description of Human DNA. The whisper is its just like papain for DNA..Yum !

      • This is the disturbing sentence of a study published on Current Issues Molecular Biology by medical journal MDPI – Molecular Diversity Preservation International based in Basel, Switzerland.

        This research conducted by scientists of Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden (Markus Aldén, Francisko Olofsson Falla,, Daowei Yang, Mohammad Barghouth, Cheng Luan, Magnus Rasmussen and Yang De Marinis) changed the history of Covid vaccines because it was to first to unveil the risk of the human DNA alteration.

        Inter cellular reverse Transcription of Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine BNT 162b2 in Vitro in Human Liver Cell line.
        -The Lund University study published on MDPI and first signatory swedish professor Markus Alden

      • “ Inter cellular reverse Transcription of Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine BNT 162b2 in Vitro in Human Liver Cell line.”

        “Inter cellular reverse Transcription of Pfizer BioNTech COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine BNT 162b2 in Vitro in Human Liver Cell line.”

        https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35723296/

        I think that’s the link … lots to read through.

      • Re: Unlocking Pandora’s Box

        Further to Pathfinder Bob’s link above here’s the link from MDPI who doesn’t seem to have a great reputation. However the study was funded by a university research hospital and a Swedish government research agency. Maybe the mainstream won’t touch it?

        If the study is right…uh oh…

        https://www.mdpi.com/1467-3045/44/3/73

  7. Re: gigo news

    Folks,

    One of yesterday evening’s local newscasts played an ad for a big pharma newfangled “all-in-one” conjugant valent vaccine. I took a look at the company’s webpage for the product. Under a “warnings” heading there were statements of there being no human studies for the drug concerning male or female fertility, nor safety in pregnancy or lactation.

  8. Linux Mint resides on all my computers except for a few ancient XP boxes I’m not sure why I’m hanging onto. Went to Linux full time since Win 7. Keep one box dual boot just for running old games. Administration time near zero except for backups.

      • Yep, he meant “Club of Rome.”

        “The New World Order” by Ralph Epperson is a right good ole read.

        From the book:

        “In 1832, a Frenchman named Alexis de Tocqueville was
        sent to America by his government to discover why America
        as a nation had constructed only a few prisons to house its
        criminals while his native France could not build them fast
        enough to house their growing prison population. He wrote
        back to his nation that he had discovered the answer. There
        was a reason that America did not need prisons.
        America was basically good.

        He wrote:

        “I sought for the greatness and genius of America
        in her commodious harbors and her ample rivers, and
        it was not there.
        I sought for the greatness and genius
        of America in her fertile fields and boundless forests,
        and it was not there.
        I sought for the genius and greatness of America
        in her rich mines and her vast world commerce, and it
        was not there.
        I sought for the greatness and genius
        of America in her public school system and her institutions
        of learning, and it was not there.
        I sought for the greatness and genius of America
        in her democratic congress and her matchless constitution,
        and it was not there.
        Not until I went into the churches of America
        and heard her pulpits flame with righteousness did I
        understand the secret of her genius and power.
        America is great because America is good, and if
        America ever ceases to be good, America will cease to
        be great.

        America is no longer great because it is no longer good.
        America’s churches and synagogues are no longer aflame with
        righteousness.
        America’s people are not heeding the warnings nor understanding the signs that are telling them that there are dangers ahead.

        Pope Felix III wrote his warning to the world back in the
        early 6th century:

        “Not to oppose error is to approve it, and indeed to neglect to confound evil men, when we can do it, is no less a sin than to encourage them.”

        It is time to oppose error.

        America’s people must become aflame with righteousness.
        America’s churches and synagogues must preach against
        the coming “New World Order.”

        If they don’t, it will surely come to the shores of America.”

        THE NWO IS HERE.

      • “There
        was a reason that America did not need prisons.
        America was basically good.”

        Great Post.. the sad part is .. IT’s NOT BASICALLY GOOD ANYMORE.

        with what percentage of the population behind bars.. The United States has the highest prison and jail population on the planet.. and if you’re an American. The United States has been at war for every generation since the battle of Concord in 1775.

  10. In case you missed the news … there are some serious rumblings going on under the North Island in New Zealand at site of the Super Volcano “Taupo” (MUCH MUCH bigger Super Volcano than Yellowstone!!)

    https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/taupo-earthquakes-today.html

    It has been a long time since that volcano had even a small eruption … but, but, but, if it would go off with full force human life on the planet might not survive.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taup%C5%8D_Volcano

    Twitter Link on some surface happenings this week at the lake that is now above the volcano:
    https://twitter.com/TimMart33836898/status/1598067003037622272?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1598067003037622272%7Ctwgr%5Ea2a7b97572b209a206336c04f164bd383e4695ee%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.godlikeproductions.com%2Fforum1%2Fmessage5297925%2Fpg1

  11. China’s yuan now accounts for nearly half of Moscow’s currency market. In January of this year the “redback” accounted for 1 percent., it is now around 45% of Russia’s currency market.
    – China now has Russia in their financial back pocket.

    • And both of them are going to DROP the DOLLAR as the world reserve currency.

      In due time, of course.

  12. Looks like someone finally noticed that the U.S. Dollar and Treasuries are in retreat – Gold shot up early this morning and has finally climbed above $1,800 an ounce. Up $52 an ounce at mid day

  13. George thank you for giving my darling cat a mention . Miss her dearly . They are called Davas boxes . Useful . All levers are working fine . Big wack at the end today . Beware Friday and Monday . Gold is in play for a long time now . Only add on buy signals. Yep 20.4 years my cat . She did see the beginning of the new gold bull but not its journey . Thanks again

    • “Ever since Russia took Europe by surprise in Ukraine,”

      ???? I will bite on that one @Ray.. Who were the ones that were surprised?

      Putin Pleaded with NATO to back the missiles off for almost two years.. and we sent more in instead.. He asked that NATO quit their eastward movements and to guarantee them that Ukraine wouldn’t become a member of NATO.. instead they allowed them to apply to become a member of nato and continued to press their borders..
      It wasn’t a secret.. They even played the clips and interviews on Main Stream Media..
      I thought then that it was similar to forcing them to act.And in all the wilderness magazines etc.. it says don’t mess with a bear protecting its cubs.. there wasn’t any surprise from my perspective they were right up front with all of it..instead we were playing here smell my finger with them.. we even tried to goad Xi into action with disrespecting their only request of respect for the one china policy..

      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/23/putin-accuses-west-coming-with-missiles-doorstep
      https://time.com/3594011/ukraine-nato-russia-kremlin/

      “Dmitri Peskov told the BBC that NATO’s eastward expansion continued to make Russia “nervous.” His comments echoed similar tough talk coming from President Putin, who promised a crowd attending a forum in Moscow on Tuesday that Russia would never be subdued by Washington.”

      I don’t know but from my perspective of this whole mess.. IS ALL OF IT could have been avoided.. all the destruction the killing the horrors of war that the innocent people and children will have to live through everything. the one good thing is Putin gave those not wishing to be involved a way to leave beforehand.. I get it though.. there were the baseless allegations that while Joe Biden was vice president of the United States, he engaged in corrupt activities relating to the employment of his son, Hunter Biden, by the Ukrainian gas company Burisma.. with held billions in the form of aid for the ukrainian company until the chief investigators were fired and all the investigations into possible corrupt business practices stopped.. then the alleged activities with other business models that Ukraine was so well known for.. all of which we the people have been told is totally false non of it is true.. that all those photos and videos and papers were all planted..But if any of it is true.. then I can see why the puppeteers would want to keep their endeavors around and active.. I read one report that thirty seven trillion a year was funneled through their laundromats.. there were thirty illegal bio labs and all the other crap going on.. But never did I read that this was a surprise Putin and Xi were right up front.. Xi is still the one that says we need to have calmer demeaners and deal with this situation as adults..

      • Amen LOOB. one of the best posts you have ever placed here.

        I have argued this point with Liberals here in Canada since before Russia entered Ukraine. This is not a war started and being perpetuated by Russia. George’s column this morning (December 2) says it all.

        “Kremlin Rejects Biden Terms for Ukraine Talks.”

        Whose war is it???

      • “???? I will bite on that one @Ray.. Who were the ones that were surprised?”

        No one, who was aware.

        However, the 99% of Americans who get their “news” from “news services” or “news networks” know nothing, until it’s fed to them. THEY are, even today, still blissfully unaware…

  15. Books to replace toys in Russian ‘Happy Meals’

    Re-branded McDonald’s restaurants will roll out their own version of ‘Kids Combos’ in several Russian cities. “As a gift, every Kids Combo set will have one of 14 exclusive books with various puzzles and mazes by the CLEVER publishing house,” the restaurant chain said, adding that books of this kind contribute to the development of children’s memory, logic, and attention span.

    https://on.rt.com/c5tf

    Another of the many reasons we’re marching in the wrong direction WRT childhood intellectual development…

    • “Books to replace toys in Russian ‘Happy Meals’

      Re-branded McDonald’s restaurants will roll out their own version of ‘Kids Combos’ in several Russian cities. “As a gift, every Kids Combo set will have one of 14 exclusive books with various puzzles and mazes by the CLEVER publishing house,”

      Dam good idea.. why can’t we do that here.. we do have dolly parton though..
      I would like the school systems to teach other cultures to.. give the kids a way to reflect on the histories taught to kids around the globe..

  16. Bill Kristol Advocates for ‘Doomsday Scenario’ in Which Democrats Work with Establishment GOP to Thwart McCarthy’s Speakership

    Never Trump Republican Bill Kristol is advocating for the “doomsday scenario” whereby establishment Republicans work together with House Democrats to thwart the candidacy of former President Donald Trump’s choice for the next Congress’s speaker of the House, House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/11/30/bill-kristol-advocates-for-doomsday-scenario-in-which-democrats-work-with-establishment-gop-to-thwart-mccarthys-speakership/

    Just in case anybody thinks Vichy is the only one in that family who should take a long walk off a short plank…

  17. U.S. Universities, Backed by Soros and Zuckerberg, Lobby for DACA Amnesty to Preserve Billion-Dollar Profit Pipeline

    A number of United States universities, backed by groups funded by billionaires George Soros and Mark Zuckerberg, are lobbying Congress to quickly pass an amnesty for millions of illegal aliens to preserve their billion-dollar annual tuition and fees pipeline.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/11/30/u-s-universities-backed-by-soros-and-zuckerberg-lobby-for-daca-amnesty-to-preserve-billion-dollar-profit-pipeline/

    Speaking of short planks…

      • Thanks! I’m still sicker’n a dog, but I AM on the downward side now. Family, friends, and acquaintances are almost all sick too, but there seem to be multiple maladies and no more than 3 of us have the same symptoms (which is QUITE interesting, if you think about it…)

      • Yes, that does seem odd – but “ODD” is normal now.

        After our family Thanksgiving I got a sinus infection that went into my chest after I spent a couple of days flushing my nose out with saline solution and generic Listerine. The sinuses recovered quickly but the danged tickle in my chest just got worse and worse. Mucinex did nothing but generic Wally World Guaifenesin and Dextromethorphan finally helped and made the cough productive. That being said it simply would NOT go away until I took a dose of my “horse paste” about 3 or 4 days into it and by the next day I was definitely feeling better. Quit the G. and D. and only cough occasionally now.

        Ivermectin! It’s not just for Covid any more!

  18. Folks,

    I don’t know what to say. White House curator guidelines did not allow the fine china to be used in tents sheltering Thursday’s state dinner. As a result dishes, stemware, and suchlike were rentals.

    The Macrons bought Mr. Biden a movie. Perhaps Mme. Macron, a former teacher of literature, was the one who chose the book gifts for Dr. Biden. They included titles by Flaubert and Camus including “The Plague” by the latter. Existentialism is in?

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