Oh boy, another “National Mood-Swing Monday” is ahead.
In the early slog, the Dow was looking at opening up 50. But the real interesting part of the day will come at 3 PM Eastern (corrected) when the (misnamed) Federal Reserve lays out the latest Consumer Debt Report. Of course, they can call it that, because banks are always creditors so they call it the “Consumer Credit Report,” but it’s all about “them-them-them” not “us-us-us.”
Theory goes that IF consumer spending (indicated by fresh debt being heaped-on goes UP, that will be good for the market. On the other hand, if people are sitting on their wallets, that would be bad. No growth there, right?
The problem (as always) is such reports are like driving a car using the rearview mirror. What really drives growth is? More people and neato-nifty new products. And on these, can’t speak for you, but we’re not seeing much.
In fact, the opposite is true: We are seeing prices in utter collapse.
Just for instance, I needed another monitor for my office (in addition to the 55 UHD I scribble on). Being somewhat visually-impaired now, big screens and fast refresh rates make it possible for me to write 10-14 hours a day.
I needed this monitor to access the security cams and also to display the APT weather satellite pictures, plus monitor some foreign television broadcasts up on Galaxy 19, and when not in “work mode” run a little digital ham radio work.
Know what a 43″ UHD TV could be had for last week on Amazon? Not a refurb…brand new, right off the boat and delivered? $169-bucks. That’s cheaper than a two-day drunk, for crying out loud.
I mention this because its where the Bernanke L4L (lower for longer) interest rates may begin to put companies at risk.
If I could buy a 43″ UHD last year for $229, and the same thing this year for $169, the same rate of price decline ($60/year) means sometime in 2022, or so, the product should be free!
Of course it won’t be, but that’s how this Never-Never-Land of economics works. Prices are coming down for things you can delay (or work-around) while prices go up for things you need, like food and wheels. Phones, too.
At some point, under lower for longer, people will notice this happening and spending will collapse as it did in the 1930’s. People simply stopped spending. They’d had enough and without inflation, there was no reason to buy.
On the Peoplenomics side, I’m working on the specifics of “what next?” as they all sloshes around. But one of the biggest stories of the day could be a close study of “trends on spends.”
This was all forecast almost 20-years ago in Richard Heinberg’s book “Peak Everything: Waking Up to the Century of Declines.” Which gets us to one of the major problems in economic thought. It’s easy to get the outcome right, but the timing’s a bitch.
OK, Heinberg has it figured in 2010 but even four years before that, Barry Lynn nailed it in 2006 with End of the Line: The Rise and Coming Fall of the Global Corporation. In fact, both are “right” but it’s a matter of exactly when does it become apparent.
So far, our record for “most right – EVENTUALLY” goes to John Wesley English and Gray Cardiff for 1979’s The coming real estate crash.
A review of these cases reveals something that may save Lower-for-Longer’s bacon. Although these look-ahead books were right in many major regards, they failed to take dynamic system “orthogonals” into account.
Remembering an “orthogonal” is something at a right-angle to something else, an example of orthogonals to Real Estate Crashing include anti-aging breakthroughs, the Millennials who can’t afford to move out of the big home Mom and Dad owned, and advances in lifespan due to better surgical and pharmacological interventions.
A shorter list for Lynn’s Global Corporations premise: Lop-sided trade deals that hyper-extended offshoring to China and India and the follow-up which was essentially a tax holiday for corporations.
Last, but not least, for Heinberg fans, there’s a lot of truth to Peak Everything but even as some things peak, new industries arise to continue the status quo of planetary excess consumption addition. Evidence is internal and external from our Outback Ranch perspective: We have a 3D Creality printer which while some things have peaked allows us to download 3D stereo lithography (STL) files from Yeggi and print-on-[demand right here. All the while externally seeing still more storage units going up in the county.
Which leaves our first “bottom line” watching the herd and eyeing the walls of the Box Canyon society has entered with lots of fear and trepidation…and from a remote location which we hope will be far enough from “harm’s way.”
Midways and Side Shows
While there are some “real stories” to watch, there’s also a ton of plain old crap filling up the excess news channel capacity. Examples of the former include:
Elizabeth Warren edges out Joe Biden in poll of early states. I will spare you the crude political rewrite of the Lizzy Border poem, but it would begin “Lizzy Warren took an axe and gave Joe Biden 40 whacks…and when the job was nicely done, she gave old Sanders 41…” Good thing I spared you that. Warren’s recent appearances with Hillary mean the left-wing will glom onto her as the nominee. Which makes the whole convention thing a charade.
Republicans are being even more crooked, cancelling three state conventions. Kansas, South Carolina, and Nevada don’t want to see alternatives as “.”Republicans in three states cancel presidential nominating contests for 2020”
Consider suspiciously “Big Tech’s antitrust reckoning has arrived.” Our sense is government will use antitrust “threatology” to lay out American Social Credit and Guns Rights Scoring…which is where that wind is blowing…Government imposed socialism from the top to “protect us all” from our Rights.
Financial Bubble Ahoy!
“NEW YORK–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Tradeweb Markets Inc. (Nasdaq: TW), a leading, global operator of electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities and money markets, today reported average daily volume (ADV) of $832.4 billion (bn) in aggregate for the month of August 2019, representing an increase of 67.9 percent year over year. “
Meantime, more gasoline for the bonfire of the equities doesn’t seem warranted as the Futures edge higher on hopes of monetary stimulus.
In the “something to chew on” dept. Soylent Green fans can’t get enough of “Swedish scientist floats eating human flesh as solution to global climate change: reports.” This story, around since last week is a marvelous tool for the study of network propagation and social media uptake mapping. Other than that, useless as our Donner Party gardening story Sunday hinted.
Can Ham Radio Prevent Alzheimer’s?
Got to thinking about it Sunday, since I’m one of those original Direct-Digital-Humans (DDH) – the kind of people that knows (and use) Morse code. (The original digital language. AD Converter between the ears…)
Before the cite, however, an explanation of why I was thinking about this.
Sunday was quiet around the ranch. Hot as hell (100F but only 37% humidity) so other than vacuuming the shop in 10-minute bursts, there was time to haul out an old radio kit I’d put together 10-years ago.
Smaller than a shoe box, I was able to Morse around the country to such tourist hot-spots as southern New Jersey (Blue Anchor) and Oxnard, California.
What “made the day” eventual was this this was doing this on a measured 4.1 watts. Not “armchair copy” for the guys at the other end- like the big radios (with up to 1500 watts of output on peaks) – but with a handful of miserly chips and only 12 volts, you don’t heat up the radio room/office on a scorching day, either.
This being a direct digital human is significantly cheaper than any other ways to connect in difficult times. This is one of the EMP container radios.
There was a “contest” on Sunday afternoon – it was a “Weekend Sprintathon” by the Straight Key Century Club and my highest “radio mileage” (watts per mile) was around 398 miles per watt out to Oxnard. Not laser light off the moon, but pretty good.
OK, what does this have to do with Alzheimer’s?
Between looking for “big signals” to work on low power, Itossed out some Google searches and apparently there MAY be something to the idea of multiple languages holding back Alzheimer’s a bit.
An article by Jose, VA3PC over here offers the idea: “Morse Code and Alzheimer – A Hint for a Proposal.” He considerately included a link to the article “The impact of bilingualism on brain reserve and metabolic connectivity in Alzheimer’s dementia.” PNAS (which, for those not working on time machines, is the Procedings of the National Academy of Sciences) is eyeing this language/Alzheimer’s onset region. When they start linking multi-lingualism with improved Alzheimer’s resistance or delayed-onset, that gets my attention. Elaine and I each carry one of the genes.
You know me…once I get an idea in my head…So off to PubMed.gov for more whatzup:
Sure enough, a paper out in June which I hadn’t flagged before says there may be some advantage of being bilingual going into Alzheimer’s. But, as the disease progresses, the second language develops errors (gramatical and such) faster than the primary language. Apparently, the second language is more declarative while the first language is more procedural. Declarative memory erodes first, procedural taking longer…
Reason enough to learn Morse code? No. But keeping up bilingual skills in two languages? You bet.
Along with the books on strict dietary control as one path, such as The End of Alzheimer’s: The First Program to Prevent and Reverse Cognitive Decline, just having the gene is not a “sentence.” Like anything else in “modern times” – it may just be a matter of more engineering time on task to pull the bigger breakthroughs together.
Meanwhile, gives me an excuse to hit the “straight key” once in a while and put aside the higher speed electronic keyer. High speed code (30 word per minute and up) is a lanuage…while the relaxed 13-20 WPM straight key events? Well, they’re in a sense more procedural. Kind of like a Flip-Flop versus a high-speed DAC.
Sadly, tri-lingualism doesn’t seem to improve things more than bilingualism. (I’ll keep Morse and English and trade rudiments of German for a pill and whatever’s behind curtain #2…)
Interesting, huh? I wonder if a new top of the line ham radio could someday be sold as a “medical device?” Pretty sure our tax attorney/CPA consigliere (who is also an extra-class ham) would never let that anywhere near our deductions schedule. Still, one can dream….end Alzheimer’s…and a new 100-foot tower as a bonus!
Write when you get rich (or work 100-stations with a straight key in Morse on 5-watts or less…)