“Told You So” – The 1929 Problem – Ikigai Life

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Yes.  Market dropped like a free-falling safe Wednesday.  And yes, we had a nice 4-digit pop in the Lunch Money account.

But this is a move we have been talking about for a long time.  For example:

“Early futures were (predictably) up because the real close Monday was down.  No one seems to know which way this is going to break.  Except, our charts reveal that a couple of key trend channels have been broken and in our view, a rerun of the 2018 Slaughter of the Elves over Christmas could be coming.”

To put it simply, if you want to know the future, try reading our past, right?

Sucking it Up: The 1929 Problem

I guess we can begin with a visual comparison of the 1929 lead-in and present market events in a nice graphical way:

Maybe you didn’t have the fascination with the rhyming aspects of cyclical economics that haunted me in my undergrad work and followed me through the MBA and then on to this site. But, if you had, you might have developed an eye for the visual rhyming that has taken place.

It’s very Zen (koan-like):  In long wave economics, “Every Time is Different, but Every Time is the Same.”

America is, I think destructively, too focused on “silver bullets.”  The Lone Ranger IRL doesn’t exist.  Problems are multivariates (probably, so’s G_d, but that’s a longer-ish discussion).  For now, let’s mov to…

DCBT  (Dead Cat Bounce Thursday)

It’s an old axiom in Technical Analysis that “Markets climb a Wall of Worry.” And to the Cult of Charts, it’s well described that Rallies take extremely roughly about twice as long to play out as declines.

My consigliere and I were talking about this Wednesday and he sagely dropped that “corrections don’t happen in a single day.”  And of course, we agreed on this point.

Let me help you with what to expect, if you’re interested?

IF (and not financial advice, just observations) the TOP of the market is really in now, THEN the following data from 1929 may be useful in understanding the short-term future.

We can calculate that from the top the first two days after the 1929 top fell by 2.99 percent.  In the real-time, the S&P was down 2.95 percent Wednesday so for us, this is a “close enough.”

While our “double-precision thinking” notices that our Aggregate Index only dropped 1.815 percent, sure, we could go down a bit more today (one percent, say).  But since other measures (like the Russell) were down more than 4 percent, this decline IS worth watching.

The 1929 data is by no means specifically predictive – this is a much different world!  But, we do have to note that if we had two small days of rally into the weekend – and if the Santa Rally fails to materialize next week, THEN we might look to a massive decline into year end and then A HUGE cratering in January – February.  An idealized (initial) low might come around February 9th next year.

So, how band MIGHT it be?  Oh, lordy.  The decline to the first major bottom was  (381.17 down to 232.13 in early November 1929) was 39 percent.  Or, to put it another way, it would be like the S&P falling – between now and Presidents Day next year-  from the high close last week (6,090 ish) to a lousy 3,708 next year.

Obviously, one who had some inkling what they were doing (oh, and history evolved like we’re laying out as possible – yet unlikely) could buy bushel baskets of put options which could soar into five or even six figures each.

We need to be clear, this is highly speculative and is the same as gambling.  People who don’t aren’t already nicely into six-figures net worth (or above) shouldn’t even think about the kind of $5,000-$10,000 bets involved.  You’re likely to lose. No whiners allowed.  Big boy pants mandatory.

But the hell of it (with major market peaks) is that you have to “be in it to win it” and while the BCN’s advice to “never hold a losing position” is always true, it’s also true that no one held out a flag, waved it Tuesday, and said “Buy short here” ahead of the Fed move.

With the Punch Bowl now taken away, the long shore strike resumption, the death of the demo-packed BS Budget called out my Musk and Vance this week, change is most certainly in the air.

But around here, there’s a (weak, don’t believe us!) case for a good stiff decline that could “let 40 percent of the air” out of this market before I turn 76.

Which may explain why Warren Buffett has been raising cash, why we have doggedly held a sizable short position, and why the market going up today and tomorrow, but a fizzling Santa rally would be about the least surprising future outcome of all.

Well, except for the U.S. attacking Iran in support of Israel before New Years, but that last-minute press into WW III is a whole other kettle of fish.

More, obviously, on the Peoplenomics.com website and this weekend’s ChartPack.

Economic Scratchpad

GDP is just out.  Just remember, the real value of which gets messy because GDP is denominated in “squishy bucks” and the Bureau of Biden Apologists states everything they can in relativistic percentage-based gobbledygook.  Like this:

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the “third” estimate. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, business investment, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

And they do a chart – but no dollar numbers:

Might we off some real numbers?

Meanwhile, we were expecting new UI filings to pop since the drop of 355-thousand in the household employment figures for last month: But, we were wrong:

And the beat goes on.

Train Wrecks at the Roadside

While we await an Israeli strike on Iranian nuke plants, there’s the matter of Syria.  Turkey’s FM rejects Trump claim of Ankara ‘takeover’ in Syria.  Of course, anyone who’s map-literate can see Israel plans to old the south coast (boxing in Lebanon) while Turkey wants the north and the whole thing is a lit fuse going into Hanukkah which coincides with Christmas this year.   Meantime, is this related? Like, you know, a warm up? Israeli airstrikes target Yemen’s Houthi rebel capital of Sanaa.

Peace in Ukraine could be coming – and with it, problems for the American Arms industry: Putin Says He’s Ready to Talk With Trump ‘Anytime’ About Ukraine Peace Deal.

Do we sense a little lefty bashing of RFK and California Gruesome has imposed a state of Bird Flu Emergency?  Bird flu is getting serious as Trump’s quacks flock to Washington,  (We’ll take RFK, jr. any time, since he’s willing to err on the “first do no harm” side. Which has gone missing in the Spay, Neuter, homeless, and broke state.)

Pissing away Tax Money seems to be slowing: Republicans scrap spending bill, under pressure from Trump and Musk.  Hoo-rah.  Now the problem for the right rational is how to get rid of RINO Mike: RINO Mike Johnson Omnibus bill would have given congress a 40% pay hike AND would jail you if you posted AI images for two years!

Mike Benz does Roto-Reuters: Where’s Our $300 Million? – Issues & Insights wants to know about all that money to buy media coverage.

And up North, the damning of TruDope continues as Canadian Freedom Convoy organizer Tamara Lich testifies before European Parliament.

Around the Ranch: Our Next Ikigai

If you don’t know what “ikigai” is, there are two videos to watch.  Because they answer the “Where do you get all your energy from?” question.

There are a couple of ways to approach ikigai.  One is the “soft way” with a TEDx talk:   While the other is with IKIGAI | A Japanese Philosophy for Finding Purpose.

Essentially, you draw four circles (mission, passion, profession, and vocation) and then see where it all overlaps.

When everything is overlapped (and the more, the better) then you get into an almost instant state of “flow.”

The problem that ADHD people like me (and my offspring) have, is that ikigai can change over time.

When we moved out of the Big City and withdrew from the corporate rat race (even though we were winning) it was because the “fun” seemed easier to find out here in the woods.  I wanted to be a writer.  Now, having written at a brutal pace for 25-years (and what will be 14-books), it’s time for a New thing.

Working away on my next book (Downscaling) it’s clear that I will eventually run out of useful economic observations to make and ideas to share.  When it comes, it will lead to a natural path into  a “next” highly energizing flow.

I’ve told you about all the personal workstations around here – and they make life really tons ‘o fun, but under the concept of ikigai there’s no real way to “get paid” much from them.

Each has potential to become a business model, though.  Handmade models (planes, boats, trains) certain are one angle. A 3D printing and laser-cutting job shop is another.  So is the repair of old tube-type shortwave and ham radio gear, that I also enjoy.  But wait… there’s more!

Had a nifty new idea pop up recently, and I will be working on that one for the first Peoplenomics report of the new year.  Charts only till be get out of the holidays because they fall on our normal in depth article days this year.

But the “new concept” is really pretty neat and should be a lot of fun.  It was surprising and that’s the fun part of doing your own ikigai work.  It will keep the “forces of life balanced” and that’s the main thing I wanted to pass along this morning.

Off to  watch the rally and let’s see how far this “dead cat can bounce.”

Write when you get it all,

George@Ure.net

74 thoughts on ““Told You So” – The 1929 Problem – Ikigai Life”

    • Hmm. I seem to recall that back in the 1950’s, nuclear energy was described as “too cheap to meter”. Apparently the first measurable net positive energy from controlled fusion was in 2022. Now people are building a 12 GW data center around fusion? What could go wrong?

      At least I’m not paying for it and it’s 2000 miles downwind.

    • Help me understand why SotH brought forth a 1500+ page CR on Tuesday that included a huge pay raise for DC critters, another $100 Bil for ‘Foreign Aid’, immunity from reprisals over J6 Committee shenanigans, 2 year jail terms for posting memes, and a dozen new Bio Labs in Ure Homeland? Burn the Effer Down already….

    • Allowing 40% increases for congresscritter pay when they’re way overpaid already? How about a 40% reduction in congresscritter pay?

      Threatening me with two years in jail for creating AI generated images of AOC genitalia? Whatever happened to freedom of expression? Do I actually have to draw such things by hand?

      Just how could these possibly be the actions of a fiscal conservative and Constitutional American?

      • I am going against the grain since I am going to defend the most of the increase in pay.

        I will note that they have NOT had a pay increase since 2009, they passed on EVERY Cost of Living increase the prior law provided.

        I don’t know the inflation numbers since 2009, George does, but how many here who worked for the same employer from 2009 to today has had NO pay increase in 15 years? (and fwiw I think the minimum wage should have gone UP with automatic COLA increases going back 30 years)

        In addition most people do NOT take into consideration that someone who is elected to congress HAS to then maintain TWO residences, one in their District and a second one in DC where they spend most of their time (DC is one of the highest cost of living cities in the entire US).

        Does the US government require it’s military officers to pay for their own housing in DC without a HUGE COL differential payment (if they are not provided On Base housing?).

        Generals, even one star types, are making the same OR MORE what a Congressman makes and THEY GET that additional COL payment in their pay envelope if sent to DC (and it is a LOT!!, thousands tax free a MONTH) AND they do NOT have to maintain a second residence somewhere else at their own expense.

        Which raises the issue of should the bosses make not just less than the “Hired Hands” but a LOT LESS than the “Hired Hands”?

        The Cost of Living situation and pay scale is such that the ONLY people who have a family that can run and serve in the Congress anymore are MILLIONAIRES … people who don’t need a salary of any sort to live a middle class life.

        A regular plumber in Des Moines who just works for a plumbing company, not an owner or manager, effectively makes than a US Congressman does now since they don’t have to pay all the extra expenses a Congress person has to pay because of needing two residences and unreimbursed other expenses. (a 3 bedroom house in the DC area costs $4500/mo to rent … $54,000/year!! – that is AFTER TAX MONEY TOO)

        https://www.google.com/search?q=wahsington+dc+house+rental+cost&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS947US947&oq=wahsington+dc+house+rental+cost&aqs=chrome..69i57.10361j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

        Most Americans apparently ONLY WANT RICH PEOPLE to serve in Congress. Anybody who actually works for a living and has to live on their paycheck can NOT AFFORD TO SERVE IN CONGRESS anymore.

        Interesting that so many here ONLY WANT RICH PEOPLE in Congress. You are getting what you want, that is for sure. Don’t now complain that only RICH PEOPLE the only ones running for and are serving in Congress since people like you are making impossible for a middle class person with a family to be able to afford to.

        • A plumber usually does a “shi–y” job that assists the people.
          Please tell me how the last years since 2001 has our faithful representatives improved infrastructure and the lives of the People? Endless wars, social conflict and serious lack of attendance or reading omni-bus bills?
          DEBT!

        • Come on!!!!

          Haven’t you heard of EXPENSE REPORTS????

          THEY WRITE OFF EVERYTHING!!!

          EVERYTHING!!!

          NO PITY PARTY HERE!!!

          They have been PISSING our taxpayer, social security, medicare money down the drain for Dickens years!!!

      • (“How about a 40% reduction in congresscritter pay?”)

        instead how about them working a five day week..punch a time clock and have to work with the same programs the people have to abide by.. the same what seven holidays a year and no lobbyists allowed any contributions given to the state to either raffle off to the citizens or money into the states budget.
        no free airfare they have to fly commercial air.
        our congress critters have private jets and a private flight crew standing ready.. any left over funds and contributions go to the state..
        their retirement come out of social security..

        • Agreed! Serving in congress should be a privilege, and not just for the privileged. Personally, I’d cut their salary to zero, just like a Volunteer Fireman. Their perks are insanely padded. If there’s to be a salary increase, it should follow the SS COLA. Their base should be equal to minimum wage, since there are no job qualifications to be elected. Even AOC got in there from her bartending job!

        • NW Mike would GUARANTEE that ONLY MILLIONAIRES could serve in Congress.

          Anybody who needs to work to support a family would effectively be barred from being in Congress.

          In reading everybody’s replies I guess that is what virtually 100% of the board here want … ONLY ALREADY RICH PEOPLE being our Legislators. (sorry I have to disagree with that philosophy as to how the United States should be governed)

          btw: expense reports only cover what is spent doing work … they don’t cover, and it is ILLEGAL for them to cover – yep even for Congress Critters, for them it is a felony – rent, food, clothes for the person or their kids, school expenses such as tuition for college education or trade school, vehicles, etc. etc..

          I don’t know where people get the idea that all you need for “PAY” is an “Expense Reimbursement” from your employer as your “pay” and don’t need any sort of paycheck because of that. Never worked that way when I worked for a multi-national company and they were very generous about approving virtually any business related expense that was on my “Expense Report” … ie: I STILL NEEDED a paycheck so as to pay my rent, buy my groceries, pay for my car /insurance, etc. etc.

          Go start a business and tell people they will get NO PAY but they can file an Expense Report which the business will reimburse them for IF it determines it is business related … but it can NOT have ANY personal expenses on it, NOT ONE DIME.

          See how many people line up to take those “great” jobs!

        • BTW, y’all DO realize every Congresscritter gets a $2mln stipend every year for expenses incurred while serving the People. It is typically used for such things as taxi fare, hiring a research assistant, gym membership, unexpensed trips, etc. Since it used to be used for telegrams and LD phone calls, I assume it is now used for burner iPhones and perhaps the hiring of a second (20-something and very attractive) assistant for conducting research into the mating habits of certain Hindu sects, and proper residential quarters for said assistant — At least until a suitable K-Street “sponsor is engaged…

  4. HaHa Congress wants a 40% COLA adjustment to their salary’s while I get a 2.5% adjustment on my SS for inflation adjustment……. What’s President Muska next move? If you don’t know who the bus driver is and wh the occupant is…..

  6. I had the oddest dream last night.. I was busy grinding up Tires.. then putting the ground up through a magnetic separation to separate the steel out of it ..
    converting the rubber into its basic components and harvesting the fuel.. then taking the left over carbon and mixing that with ground up seashells and making fuel pellet s with the composition of the two materials…
    I woke up tired..it was so real I felt like I worked my ass off..
    what I don’t know is can the base carbon remaining actually work similar to what a charcoal dust would work in the production of carbide? the remaining carbon is just basic carbon.. anyway I was busy..

      • Lol lol lol…not in the dream.. it was similar to when I built our home in my sleep..lol lol lol worked so hard and was worn out tired when I woke up and disappointed that it was just a dream lol lol lol

    • Most interesting! I’ve always been interested in recycling/decycling tires for their energy content or raw material, but a proper tire shredder and/or grinder is very expensive to either buy or build. It also uses mass quantities of energy, so perhaps thermal decomposition makes more sense using whole tires. Obviously, this would have to be quite safe from escaping fumes unless you lived even more remotely than anyone I know.

      • Tire recycle problem well stated – solution ?

        I gotz You – surely we have enough old tires for each every Politician in DC past and present? In addition there are enough for each every federal employee in DC, and there most assuredly are enough for the agency employees and contractors.

        My GIFT to DC and all its inhabitants, including COG in colo springs….tada – The Tire Necklace.

        Lighting the way thru the darkness with their burning BODIES !

        “OH Human Tannebaum, light up my LIFE, and give me a Warm feeling all over..mmmmM!”x 3 .

      • Washington state university has an oil reclamation unit..the only one they allowed in the USA…
        in some countries they sell small counter top units to home owners to recycle their plastic waste..what had me curious is after pyrolysis your left faith carbon that can be used for a multitude of other products.. but in the dream I was combining it with sea shells.. roasting sea shells gives you a nice calcium.. through another proce as adding carbon from charcoal and sea shells you can bake it and end up similar to char cloth as calcium carbide.. but would the carbon from tires work to create that fuel product??? .. that I don’t have a clue to.. it was an interesting dream anyway.. not one I will do.. it was after all a dream.. a dream that had me wake up tired lol lol lol..
        there never has been an oil shortage just the lack of interest in declaring it..
        I believe what got me to dream about it was I was reading how a car company is now going to start producing hydrogen cars.. we all knew one day that it would become a reality..what has been holding it back is the business model.
        you cannot have free energy.. way back before I was born Texaco had their yearly challenge.. cars made of iron getting several hundred miles to gallon. in 78 a gent from Texas drove his ford across the country with every msm television news following him to sit in front of congress telling them that there isn’t an energy crises..he drove across the country televised on ten gallons of gas. he had made a small plasma reactor..his car was confiscated.. every branch of the military now has that system patented..and so does every auto manufacturer..
        Herman Anderson of Kentucky was the only one that was allowed to drive his car on water..
        the issue is hydroxy such as in Stan Meyers car is in condensed form explosive..it has to be greatly diluted similar to the air to fuel ratios for gasoline..its discouraged because of the business model and seriously if you think about it just look at how many people and their lives would be affected by a cheap alternative. similar to the health issues.. looking at what insurance companies and pharmaceutical companies show for profit by not paying for the care of the citizens shows a couple trillion dollars being spent by the citizens for care costs that they will never pay for..there are millions of people in those industries that depend on the companies not paying for the services that the customers hire them to protect them fro being faced with astronomically high costs….
        when Adolph Hitler was using them how they did it was also use an alcohol water injection.. they still make and sell those for race cars.. hydrogen burns exclusively hot and would damage an engine..
        https://supercruzesstore.com/products/daves-world-methanol-water-injection-system?
        I have made small hydrogen cells..easy to make and use .. some like to rip the water apart the trick is to lull it apart and fracture it with frequency rather than force..
        anyway I am sure that is what had me working all night In my sleep.. I am ready for a nap now lol lol

      • (“Obviously, this would have to be quite safe from escaping fumes “)

        in pyrolysis its the fumes you are harvesting..I built two wood gassifiers.. one using a sixteen gallon oil drum the other was just an experiment using plumbing parts ..the plumbing parts was an idea I had a guy in a town close by was curious so we built it and had a nice generator on it..when he passed on they offered to let me have it.. I kind of wish I had said yes.. but can easily make another.. I had the thought..old semi tractor mufflers.. could I build one out of one of those????
        unfortunately I don’t have the shop space to tinker on it and I have so many unfinished projects already..
        they are way to easy to build..I think that’s why they use to have it in the civilization emergency manual..

        https://build-a-gasifier.com/PDF/FEMA_emergency_gasifier.pdf
        the first one I ever seen was on a friends dads old tractor in a shelter belt..we used that old tractor as a plane and a tank etc. it was the funniest thing..anyway I asked his dad what is that..he said during the war they rationed gas. so farmers would put old corn cobs stalks etc in it to run the tractor..
        you can still buy them from Sweden for cars in some countries they still utilize the technology..super easy to make the process is great..

    • Did your dream foresee less need for tires, and a lot of cold people looking for something to burn in the furnace, perhaps ?

      • Lol lol no it was just me changing the structure lol lol..
        I Have a pellet press..

        https://youtu.be/b7moYXe6YAc?si=pMJzQPEzMQtbcBYo

        I thought sawdust.. what about corn stalks.. I thought dam you can make fuel pellets out of just about anything..
        I had thought coal dust …. you get an exceptional heat out of a coal wood mix.. I was burning coal in my multi fuel pellet stove..the problem is coal burns to hot.. exceptionally hot.. I had a new burn box made that allowed the fumes to be reburn.. worked really good.. no black soot. you would have to add a filter to take the hazardous chemicals out but neck I could put a white cloth over and not get a stain.. anyway I tried to talk manufacturers into making a wood coal pellet high in heat and could be made using waste material.. they throw away coal dust and saw dust is a waste material as well.. so a three to one mix. three parts sawdust one part coal dust.. I tried one to one the coal burned to hot the instruments were affected by the heat 3/1 was the perfect mix for a heat mix..
        but no one wanted to make them..the cost of shipping is excessive.. a ton of coal runs what forty dollars the dust is free..or a token amount if they package it..

      • Energy is all around us.. the technology is here and has been since the time of the Sumerian.. like my old rant about solar towers handing out grid tie systems and green scaping the cities.. building air wells in dessert regions..
        what is lacking isn’t the technology..its the present business model..consider how many lives would be affected.. similar to a small hydrogen cell cheap enough.. but it would affect everything and everyone..we depend on the poor mileage cars and the local gas station the trucks that deliver every fact of our lives depends on it.. up till now its been discouraged..utility companies are against home solar systems.. they need the sales.. malls need customers wandering the floors ..the velocity of money..the consumer goods to fail..
        the killing of the electric car..
        https://youtu.be/l3OnYjP4FTk?si=k_Q6zqyn47dx1XK7
        how many moving parts oil changes etc.
        I think today since the car companies can no longer get parts for cars ten years or older will move people to seek the cars that only have fewer moving parts..

        • LOOB; you CAN get MOST of the parts, it is finding a mechanic or dealer that will work on cars 10 years or older.

        • @??

          “LOOB; you CAN get MOST of the parts”

          That depends.

          NO motor vehicle manufacturer is required to manufacture, stock, or maintain parts for any vehicle that’s more than ten years old. For some parts, the expiration date is only four years out.

          If an aftermarket manufacturer (like Dorman) purchases the license (and in some cases, purchases the OEM molds or dies), the part lives on indefinitely. That’s the reason you can buy a new window crank for a 1963 Studebaker Avanti or a rebuild kit for a 1934 flathead Ford. If nobody purchases the license, the manufacturer breaks the mold and parts only exist as long as some old dealership has a dusty OEM on the shelf.

          Thanks to 3-D printing, if an original part can be located or drawn-up, it can be duped, generally for 10x to 100x the cost of the original part, but at least it can be made available.

          I know of no actual mechanic who will not fix an old car, if (s)he can obtain the parts required to do so. The older a car is, the easier it is to work on and repair, and the fewer pieces there are, to go wrong. Also, the fewer parts will be readily available.

          Speaking of, lemmee correct one thing right here and now: A V-8 ICE engine has about 400 pieces (counting all the nuts, lockwashers, bearings, locking tabs, and studs), about 75 of which are actual moving parts. An EV engine has about 100 pieces, of which 9 (per motor) are actual moving parts. EVERY OTHER PART, from the dash switches to the suspension bits, are the same, and they degrade along an identical wear profile.

          Your motor may last 10 million miles (some diesels do) but your car will only last until the A-arm or trailing-link bushings go away, and it’s only an enjoyable ride until the shock absorbers lose their ability to dampen road surface jolts and vibrations. Dorman doesn’t make replacement bushings, and by the time you need them, neither will your car’s manufacturer…

        • (“NO motor vehicle manufacturer is required to manufacture, stock, or maintain parts for any vehicle that’s more than ten years old”)

          exactly..took the buggy in for an oil change at the dealership.. the guy tells me you might need a water pump.. I asked how much.. well 200 an hour three hours diagnostic .. and I would have to get the part.. total cost over 1500 … fifteen years ago to get a new belt new timing belt and waterpump.. was about three hundred dollars..
          its amazing.. I had tried to use the I can make parts argument to the wife to get a metal printer..
          she said not on your life are you going to buy one..lol

        • “exactly..took the buggy in for an oil change at the dealership.. the guy tells me you might need a water pump.”

          So, stop “Looking out of the box” and start “thinking outside the box.”

          Buy an electric water pump:

          https://www.summitracing.com/search?SortBy=BestKeywordMatch&SortOrder=Ascending&keyword=electric%20water%20pump

          https://www.jegs.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/SearchResultsPageCmd?q=electric+water+pump&storeId=10001&catalogId=10002&langId=-1

          Bear in mind these searches return hundreds of hits, and the vast majority of the pumps are designed for racing engines, so they’re serious overkill for a street vehicle (IOW you don’t need the $900 pump. The $100 or $200 pump is better than you’ll ever need, and will last until your car’s suspension rusts into dust.)

          This same set of solutions (and rules) applies WRT oil pumps, brakes, and power steering units (yes, you can buy electric power steering units.) That $1300 electric power steering rack is a lot more expensive than the $400 rack that’s on your car right now, but if your rack goes out, it is going to be replaced with one that’s made in China. If’fn you don’t understand the repercussions [of this], please allow me to elucidate:

          I bought my Expedition less than 8 years ago. The original rack went away (Ford, made in USA, “not rebuildable”) in 2022. The dealer replaced it with a new (Ford, made in China, not rebuildable) rack. A few months ago, my mechanic replaced the Chinese rack, which was leaking a quart of power steering or automatic transmission fluid @ between $6 and $8 per day. My wrench ALSO replaced the rack with a Ford (made in China) rack (after letting me know that’s all that was available.)

          If (when) this rack goes away, I will be driving to Columbus, Ohio (which has both Summit Racing and Jegs retail locations) and purchasing an electric power steering system.

          ‘Same goes for brakes (Except for the SVO flavors, I hate Ford Brakes!) I probably won’t go electric brakes, but I WILL go Wilwood 4- or 6-piston aftermarkets.

          A car is a machine. Don’t let it rule your life, and for Pete’s sake, don’t let some wet behind the ears Lincoln Tech grad tell you something CAN’T be done. If the machine stops working the way the engineer designed it to work, do your own engineering and have the machine remade to serve YOUR purpose — not that of the manufacturer OR the mechanic.

  7. George,
    I did “side-step” one of my – 12 Rules for Options Trading [ Lynn’s Laws ] – but I don’t feel too guilty about it. It originally was 10 Rules., but I added a couple of more a few years back when my math models showed a major change was taking place in the markets & money.
    .
    +$8,186 [ top four ] +$2,355 [ bottom two ]
    Been a long time since I have seen Put Options move so fast & steadily. My board was lighting-up like a blinking Christmas tree.
    .
    Merry Christmas – to One & All.

  8. Folks,
    George’s discussion of “ikigai” brought to mind a book that is very important in Japanese culture, the “Book of Five Rings” by Miami to Musashi. This book is not well known in our culture but it is well now worth reading. Sorry for no links, but texts and audio files are easily found. Musahi’s life gets a biopic in the movie series Samurai 1, 2, and 3 if you can find them. Got Kodi?

    I have been following the discussion about the drones and I am reminded that George Carlin once said “just think of how stupid the average person is then realize that half of them are stupider than that.”

    Merry Christmas to all.

  9. The economy is growing much faster then previously reported. GDP revised up to now 3.1%. Existing Home sales are up sharply. New Vehicle sales are up 7.3%, so far for this month alone. Consumer spending is very close to an all-time record.
    .
    Government’s own chart shows 335,000 less people working then last month. Manufacturing is close to a two year low. Credit Card Debt is at a record high – and is pacing to set another record this month.
    .
    We have two very opposing different takes on the economy. Just how far down the rabbit hole is this going ?

    • Okay, this time around we will have Trump, Vance, Musk, and Ramaswamy. By most indications they will be more-accessible than Presidents and advisors have been at any time in any of our lifetimes. Perhaps once they’re in and settled, we can implore them to junk “Congressional accounting” and go back to something approaching honesty? They have all played the markets, so they have to know how crooked the stats & reporting have become…

      • I get a chuckle out of that.. wanna know how good you have it..go see a car salesman.. it looks good on paper lol lol lol…
        its the shell game..
        three men walk in and see something they like.. a young salesman tells them..oh its nice.. its thirty dollars.. the three men look at each other and each one lays a ten dollar bill on the counter…
        the department head comes up and says what’s this.. they paid five dollars to much here is five dollars go give the guys their change..
        as the young man is heading to them he cannot figure out how to divide five into three .. do he gives each man one dollar..and keeps two dollars.. so each man paid nine dollars..
        3×9=27+2=29 what happened to the other dollar..
        its the shell game..and every single man woman or child has devoted their life to numbers..its how they juggle the numbers

        • Your puzzle is a clever mis-statement.

          The government’s “government accounting” is deliberate and institutionalized lying, distortion of numbers and statistics, interdepartmental cheating, delayed reporting, substitution of percentages for actual numbers, and when all else fails, a refusal to state the numbers or processes used to create the numbers that’re reported by your favorite, monetarily-challenged newscaster…

    • Are these the Drones youse all be looking for ?

      https://sputnikglobe.com/20241219/main-locations-of-unidentified-drone-sightings-in-us-1121210461.html

      FAA has posted NOTAM s over NJ – as well as reiterating it is unlawful to Shoot them with Guns or Lasers…bwahahahahahah

      Please someone write when you locate source/motherships floating over US/Germany/UK..

      *Remember the “good” ET’s are NOT hiding/cloaking anymore, they are here in FORCE .

      bad et’s Ure govments’ in bed with..Still in hiding.

      • If you live in Grovers Mill New Jersey you SHOULD BE WORRIED.

        The aliens will initiate first contact THERE if it is to happen.

        Orson Wells told us that 9 decades ago …

      • “*Remember the “good” ET’s are NOT hiding/cloaking anymore, they are here in FORCE .”

        Yeah, that’s why they keep landing in Midtown Manhattan and the East Lawn of the White House.

        Oh, wait.

        No, they don’t…

        My guess is the only motherships are floating between your ears.

        • Ure guess is horribly wrong .

          Why cant you do anything about them hovering over very RESTRICTED airspace for hours ?

          Whats a matter Raymondo ? Too busy mistakenly shooting down Ure own f18 hornets?

          Have you not seen the the LARGER craft yet ?

          Video is already out there in the wild..why even mrmbbb3 on Youtube has vids of the most recent, some big ones. Many more to come – undeniable they are becoming before my eyes .

          Your “guys” really do seem to be in a panic about the “goodguys&girls” showing up unannounced = AWESOME!

          Too bad this “Show” of FORCE exposes all the DARKNESS in our govmints,leadership & black nobility.

          Good Luck with domestic theory.

        • You ain’t read the PN piece yet. Chill. All three domains, the unders, the overs, and the landed/sharing and what ity means…all be along presently. Less coffee, more reflection.

        • “Why cant you do anything about them hovering over very RESTRICTED airspace for hours ?”

          According to Occam, the restrictions don’t apply to them.

          “Have you not seen the the LARGER craft yet?”

          I saw the larger craft in 1971. These are neither it, nor its satellites.

          “undeniable they are becoming before my eyes .”

          Which confirms my assertion.

          The only thing this “show of farce” exposes, is the gullibility of some, the desperation of others, and the need for monitors when someone tries out a new ‘shroom for the first time…

      • According to RADMON and the US EPA radiation tracker, Hal Turner is demonstrating the unreliable side of his “reporting.”

        In the month of December, the rad levels in NYC have not exceeded 0.008 mR/h and have been typically in the 0.0058mR/h range. That is about 3/100,000 the amount of gamma radiation you’ll put into your body with a pack-a-day cigarette habit, or pretty damn’ negligible.

        There hasn’t been any spike.

        Hal is in error.

  11. Today, Diana and I sat down over lunch to work on our annual expense plan for next year. We each have a piece of paper with two columns: the left column is for capital items, and the right column is for wants and needs. A budget figure is at the top. Each of us lists items on our lists with costs. We exchange the lists and then go down each list, placing a red or black check mark next to each one, and trading them back.
    This is where the negotiations begin. We discuss each item and decide yay or nay. We don’t normally disagree on the normal daily expenses on the house and ranch so those are separate from this ahem negotiation. It’s where the “nonoperational” things are discussed and decisions made. We strive to get the decisions made at our first lunch which is a little late this year with the move and all. Two items I predict will be discussed in depth. I have a new 40-foot tower for comms. My love wants to remodel half of the damn house and the kitchen to include a stone hearth surrounding the (new) stove and wall oven(s) and an island the size of an aircraft carrier.
    I have mentioned before that throughout our 40-year marriage Diana has a way of winning any argument, discussion, or disagreement by lifting her shirt up. This never fails…..
    I just got off the phone with my contractor friend.

    Stay safe. 73

    • Damn …

      Have you thought about Safety Wiring that thing down?

      When I worked as a mechanic’s helper for the Air Force (short time summer job while in college) we safety wired anything and everything!! Seemed to keep everything in place pretty well too.

    • I love the idea for the kitchen.. that sounds amazing..
      you figure your budget exactly how we do..
      household expenses rock solid the rest goes into discussion foe elimination or reduction.
      I have been working on ours overtime.. had to eliminate some things and increase deductibles on auto insurances.
      since the wife has totally retired now..the 4 days of income have been eliminated..

  12. Yo Trader G,

    Can ya help a brotha from anotha Mutha out, please? Can youse define or explain what a Dead Cat Bounce actually is. I just dont get it for one dam minute.

    Has anyone ever Witnessed a dead Cat bounce ?

    I have exterminated my fair share of ferals over the years..shot em out of old fire fighting practice buildings, dumpsters, bushes, ect, never have I seen one bounce..not even a milimeter

    No they tend to just go “thud” laying there not moving.

    SPY is up .77% as writing – Dude – Dead Cats dont bounce.

    Perhaps BTD Day is better description or Ure is talking DARE Bioscience and their new in Phase3 trial Sildenafil Cream.
    That = a Dead “Cat” Bounce for sure !
    See phase 3 trial results for Ure proofs.

    • (“”We’re not going to fall into the debt ceiling quicksand,”)

      to late… we are in the quick sand.. the only option I see..is dump the fiat currency.. go bankrupt on our debt.. all of the security notes we sold to gather income worthless..similar to my twa stocks..I didn’t sell them because I assumed the new owner would gather them in and trade their stocks in exchange even at a ten to one..instead all Tea stocks I once owns became nothing.. I had to pay someone to get rid of it..lol
      the problem with that is if the us dollar is no longer used or vallued..you own only what you have and the money already owned becomes Zimbabwe .. that’s when gold is going to be worth somerhing..that is if they set up the new monetary system on a gold standard.. but then they could go Aztec and say CORN is the new rate of exchange..
      then everything would start ..no more debt but no fire departments, or police no military etc.. just like redoing the yearly budget .. some people sell their belongings to start free with a new budget or cut out things of great expense ..we as a country would be starting fresh.. we lose our position and the ripple effect would take down the IMF and all fiat currencies.. with the loss of value and equity mansions all around the world would be similar to the ones in Detroit that after the loss of industry and the velocity of money they stand empty.. Detroit was selling them for pennies with a homestead type requirement of you have to have it rebuilt to its original value in x years..the problem with that is..someone making ten dollars an hour can’t afford it..its more economical to bulldozer it down and start new..

      • Why not declare a JUBILEE?

        Forgive all debts and start over?

        Wasn’t O’Biden forgiving all of those student loans?

        Why can’t the non-Federal Reserve, give a little, and FORGIVE all the debts against it?

  14. Something about time took me back to looking at the Chani Project,
    https://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia/ciencia_channelers20.htm
    “moon not natural heaven body
    moon put there by other being to control earth mood
    without moon big calm comes over peoples no big storm anymore only litel storm
    without moon peace among people
    elders say old race capture moon from space then put next earth
    elders say moon forces work like time mashine keep control time
    moon also control mood of beings on planet in this line time”
    and so much stuff, good stuff. Vic

  15. I don’t know about dead cat bounce, but I’ve seen a dead ‘possum bounce. Dog chased him up a 60’ pine tree in the front yard. Wife shot the ‘possum with a .410. Dog watched him fall, dog’s head bounced up and down watching the ‘possum bounce. Hilarious!

  18. Folks,

    Despite President Biden recently loading us$20 billion onto a Christmas gift card for President Zelensky, European Commission President Dr. von der Leyen presented him with an iou for half the original amount along with a photo op.

    According to “Wikipedia” Dr. von der Leyen is a paternal great-great-grand-niece of a cotton family belle from South Carolina whose betrothal to a fine gentleman from Bremen in 1902 did spawn one of the greatest cotton controlling multinationals of the 20th century in Germany. (As an aside, royalty watcher fans may wish to note that Bremen was briefly part of the British Empire circa 1715 thanks to the Hanoverian King George I of England.)

    President von der Leyen has now promised President Zelensky €18.1 billion, but now it’s not payable until January. This past Oct. 22nd the EU parliament issued a press release stating elected members had voted (~80%) in favour of loaning €35 billion to Ukraine by the end of 2024 for disbursement by the end of 2025. This was in support of the June G7 agreement to give us$50 billion to Ukraine. The Oct. 25th meeting of G7 finance ministers cut the EU contribution to €18.1 billion which was rubberstamped by the European Council on Oct. 28th and became law the next day per EU 2024/2773. The legislation contains a clause exempting it from the usual EU 8 week waiting period for individual member EU nations to object.

    Speaking of lumps of coal from Santa, it seems that by 2019 the nation of Ukraine was already producing the highest sulfur dioxide pollution levels in Europe from coal-powered electricity generation!

  19. Hello George, I’ve just been catching up on both your posts and all the comments this week, and your discussion of Babel and Cycles. When you research events with time and dates involved, it can be of exceeding value to have a “Master Event Chart for Earth and our Solar System”. The below link has completely accurate year dates for Earth and Solar System Events. All of your readers will find this of use or they will at least find it of interest for additional area’s of research.

    https://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/Event_Timeline

  20. “Pissing away Tax Money seems to be slowing: Republicans scrap spending bill, under pressure from Trump and Musk. ”

    Maybe. You’ll awake to the failure of the new bill. According to actual conservatives in the House, they pared the bill down from over 1500 pages to over 100 pages and got rid of all the procedural bullshit, like law enforcement being barred from EVER examining Congressional E-Mails, but it didn’t cut spending by a damn’ dime.

    Gots ta watch the damn’ fools every second, when there’s money on the table. I have no problem with them temporarily suspending the spending cap, because I trust the people who’re about to be in charge, and it will eliminate a possible lever the commies can use against the Trump Administration. I have a huge problem with the Biden Administration pissing away the FY 24-25 budget so as to leave the first 9mos of Trump redux unfunded.

    I also think folks in the Florida-to-WVa “hurricane corridor,” which the Biden Administration has nearly patently ignored, deserve to have their lives and families saved, a LOT more than Ukraine needs even one more bullet…

    • wrong groups of people living in those areas, cept FL.

      tribe be running the show in WH -100% tribal administration.

      tRump will be worse, as he is already bibi’s broke back bitch.

      Global CONFLAGRATION – LFG!

    • I’m concerned about holiday shenanigans – especially Christmas Eve/New Year’s Eve bills potentially being voice voted on by the few and signed by the vacant one!

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