6.3 Percent Home Inflation!

Just out from Case-Shiller, S&P, CoreLogic, et alia:

S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER NATIONAL HOME PRICE INDEX SHOWS HOME PRICES END THE YEAR 6.3% HIGHER THAN 2016

NEW YORK, FEBRUARY 27, 2018 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2017 shows that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months.

(Continues Below)

YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.3% annual gain in December, up from 6.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.0%, no change from the previous month.

The 20-City Composite posted a 6.3% year-over-year gain, down from 6.4% in the previous month.
Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In December, Seattle led the way with a 12.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Las Vegas with an 11.1% increase, and San Francisco with a 9.2% increase. Nine cities reported greater price increases in the year ending December 2017 versus the year ending November 2017.

We reckon home prices are just the leading edge – import prices are up 1 percent for the month, too.  (*more on that down in the details of today’s report)

Which, if you break it into a rate-of-change looks like this:

After the report, Dow futures were down about 20 points, but we do understand that generalized inflation (housing and import prices today) is an incoming tide that will tend to “float all boats” – and gold and silver one might think would benefit in turn and well as tangibles like real estate…But, we shall see.

Down Today then Back Up To Records?

That’s one way to read our work on how present-day markets seem intent on replaying aspects of 1929.  In fact, at present rate, there’s a good chance that we have completed a minor fourth wave (of a larger Elliott wave V) and we could just keep going up through the summer.

Or not. World stocks hit three-week highs before new Fed chief’s debut…

You see, we are not out of the woods just yet.  1929 data is on a closing basis and there are all kinds of ways to interpret things.  Our work is based on something I cobbled up years ago – Aggregated Markets Theory – which argue that because of machine trading and Internet-speed hot money trading, you can no longer look to a singular index such as the Dow, the S&P, or the NASDAQ to base decisions.

In fact, not only do things like competing foreign markets loom large, but in our curious view, the most accurate time to assess markets world-wide is after the US close on Friday’s.  Other than that (when “hot money” stops momentarily) it’s hard to get a bead on where money flows are going.

Unless you’re a super-computer, that is.

Anyway, as subscribers have known since last week’s Peoplenomics.com report, if the 1928-1929 replay is running, we would expect a decline today and then a major, major rally for the next five trading days after this.

Ure’s truly may wade in long.

The real problem, as explained in Saturday’s report, is what to do about March 2 and the following weekend.

Two factors here:  One is chairman Dennis Nunes has a March 2 deadline for more of the democrat’s information on Russian involvement.  And,, say conspiracy boards around the net…that may have something to do with why there was a recent ad on Houston Craigslist looking for “crisis actors” – and a thousand bucks a day.

Well…here’s where it gets to be a tough judgement call.

If you were placing money on the stock market going on to new highs before March 22 (55-days from the last all-time-high) would you stay in the market when there may be something of an internal battle “between the factions” amongst the PowersThatBe/Deep State?  Hmmm…

Bottom line for non-subscribers: With the big rally yesterday?  We see the market is only 907-points, or so, from new highs to negate the March decline scenario.  That’s only three more days like yesterday.  Figure out why Ure MAY GET LONG for a while today?

16 trading days, so call it 57 points per day.  ‘

All of which ought to be a walk in the park.  Like I say, the only things worrying me are two biggies:  Xi in China is gone Hitler-like in this “president for life” stuff.  That could derail everything.  And then there’s the crisis actors.

Still, sweep all that aside and what’s left?  Other than the potential for a decent portfolio gain in coming weeks – IF this replay to the upside continues.

THIS IS NOT TRADING ADVICE, BUCKO.  But it is cheaper than a trip to a real casino.

Day’s Worth of Data

Swimming in it.  Beside the Housing data, we have…

Bitcoin:  Back up to $10,675.  Might want to hold off the partying for a bit, though.  You saw where Coinbase is doing WHAT?

“Coinbase tells 13,000 users their data will be sent to the IRS soon”

You do remember who told you that Bitcoin will NEVER be allowed to be a tax-exempt way to accumulate wealth, don’t you?

Durable Goods:

And here’s a trifecta for you…

Import Prices

Just out from Labor Dept:

U.S. import prices increased 1.0 percent in January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, after rising 0.2 percent in December. Higher prices for both nonfuel imports and fuel imports contributed to the January advance. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.8 percent in January following a 0.1-percent increase the previous month.

Imports

All Imports: The price index for U.S. imports rose 1.0 percent in January, after increases of 0.2 percent in December and 1.0 percent in November. The 1.0-percent advances were the largest 1-month rises since the index increased 1.2 percent in May 2016. Import prices advanced 3.6 percent between January 2017 and January 2018.

Fuel Imports: Fuel prices increased 4.7 percent in January following a 2.9-percent advance in December and a 9.8-percent rise in November. Higher prices for petroleum and natural gas contributed to the increases in all 3 months. Prices for petroleum advanced 4.3 percent in January, after rising 2.3 percent the previous month and 9.5 percent in November. The price index for natural gas increased 20.7 percent in January following advances of 20.0 percent in December and 25.7 percent in November. Prices for fuel imports rose 19.7 percent over the past 12 months. Petroleum prices increased 20.9 percent for the year ended in January and prices for natural gas advanced 16.2 percent over the same period. “

Which means what kiddies?

I assume that import prices going up 1 percent in a month scares the living sh*t out of you because it means all this Modern Monetary Theory is about to cap your ass with inflation?  (That compounds to 12.6825% per YEAR and since we don’t make anything, you will have to pay higher prices – by a LOT and there goes the Trump bump…)

Buying that hybrid or ultra-high mileage car makes more sense than ever.

Next big data?  GDP for our Peoplenomics.com folks tomorrow which means maybe we can pencil out what is new with the Velocity of Money at M2.  (Do I hear another spreadsheet calling?  Yoo-hoo…)

Speaking of You-Who, have you noticed the “computer virus error” ad that seems to pop up on You-Who’s site in non-market hours?  Thinking about calling their investor relations folks.  Insulting damn popup and no, it’s not a virus.  Think delayed load adjacker…poor form.  Hope they get a hell of a premium because it’ll drive users away over time.  (Tested on multiple computers…. seems to be timed if multiple windows are open…) Pissed me off, sorry.

And in Other Snooze

Bernie Sanders’ Son Is Running for Congress in New Hampshire.

Global Wound Care Product Market to be Worth USD 21.79 Billion by 2022.  Unless the gun-grabbers get their way.  Then it may be more…

Make note of liberal “deep thinkers” department: Norway’s Underground Doomsday Seed Vault Is Under Threat From Climate Change. Side of hype with your eggs this morning?

Headless Horseless Carriages: California OKs autonomous car testing without backup drivers.

You need to read Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire shareholders if you haven’t.

Here’s a quote that seems to go hand-in-glove with our pragmatic view of consumer super-saturation.  Buffett’s finding it hard to find good primary companies to buy:

“In our search for new stand-alone businesses, the key qualities we seek are durable competitive strengths; able and high-grade management; good returns on the net tangible assets required to operate the business; opportunities for internal growth at attractive returns; and, finally, a sensible purchase price.
That last requirement proved a barrier to virtually all deals we reviewed in 2017, as prices for decent, but far from spectacular, businesses hit an all-time high. Indeed, price seemed almost irrelevant to an army of optimistic purchasers.

Why the purchasing frenzy? In part, it’s because the CEO job self-selects for “can-do” types. If Wall Street analysts or board members urge that brand of CEO to consider possible acquisitions, it’s a bit like telling your ripening teenager to be sure to have a normal sex life.”

Sounds to us like a lot of business are trying to sell at (or adjacent-to) the long wave economics top.

Once you do take the time to consider Buffett’s letter, then you can read the NY Times spin on it in “Buffett’s Annual Letter: Berkshire Records $29 Billion Gain From Tax Law…”

While you’re doing that, I’m going to have breakfast and then contemplate Peoplenomics for tomorrow…be well and more here on the free side of George Thursday…