Three Important “I Told You So’s”

Read ’em and weep – we keep telling you what’s ahead.  Things like…:

  • Falling Markets
  • Election Woes
  • Climate Change Nonsense

Time for a little “Personal Accounting” and Reality Checking this morning.  (Can you tell I’m sick of the same-old stories, refried?)

Let’s start with Falling Markets and Election Woes and see how that outlook from November 2 is working out, shall we?  The key paragraphs are:

On Falling Markets – Here’s what was said:

Again, NOT ADVICE – just some noodling and modeling.

Which can, in turn, be read a couple of ways.    One is that we will get some surprising good news and the logical stopping point at 2,520 on the S&P will hold.  OR, the Prechter count is correct (end of world is in sight), in which case S&P 1,540 might not hold and we’re into a full-on collapse.  Think in terms of an 80 percent or greater decline in pricing.”

The reason for pointing this one out is that between Friday of last week and mid-session yesterday, we managed about a 4-1/2 percent gain in our “play account.”  This is the one where I am willing to test damn near any market theory.  Sometimes it works out very badly (like losing $10-grand earlier this year when a particular highly levered trading  model turned out to be flawed…).  But, there are other times like quite recently, when “new and improved” models have been remarkably profitable.  It’s only money…and that’s how we keep score.

Whether you invest (gamble) in stocks, or not, at some point people have to commit to a future and make some personal investment in it.  Figure out where the future is going and you can make winning bets.  Get it wrong?  Well, you lose.  Simple as that.

Sure, happens in slow-motion. But the BIG decisions in life (where to live, how to deploy your personal assets) are not “overnight” and no, they don’t come with “do-overs” either.

Our views tend to be driven by history and by that metric, we’re still worried about the last week of this month.  Downside wash-out ahead?  We shall see.

Election Woes – Here’s what we said:

On November 2…still true today…

“We expect there will be wreckage – a possible democrat house and a republican senate.  Gridlock as never before.  Finger-pointing while America collapses; attacked from division within that has been nurtured for years and invaded from without supported by a domestic Fifth Column:.”

Yep,. this one is huge, also.  We are reading an ongoing flurry of headlines about how this election is far from decided and it was a week ago.  Dandy.  Thing is, we got the outlook right.  We made good bets.

Here’s the One That Matters

Over the past several years I have been warning you that a) Global Warming was likely a scam and b) the Son of Global Warming – Climate Change was its bastard-child offspring.  All to much derision from the programmable peeps of the Thoughtless Generation.

Here’s what I was telling you (to toss a dart) back on September 2017:

“Today, you may wish to read, as we have suggested often, about urban heat islanding, as well.  Although we take it as Gospel that a lot of Wiki edits come from climate “true believers” the fact of urban heat islanding is clear in this entry:

“An urban heat island (UHI) is an urban area or metropolitan area that is significantly warmer than its surrounding rural areas due to human activities. The temperature difference usually is larger at night than during the day, and is most apparent when winds are weak. UHI is most noticeable during the summer and winter. The main cause of the urban heat island effect is from the modification of land surfaces.[1][2] Waste heat generated by energy usage is a secondary contributor.[3] As a population center grows, it tends to expand its area and increase its average temperature. The less-used term heat island refers to any area, populated or not, which is consistently hotter than the surrounding area.[4]

On this basis, I am not a “climate denier.”

I am something far more dangerous:  I’m a statistically-based independent thinker.  The worst nightmare of the elites, their bought & paid government and enviro-minions.  We ask a lot of “inconvenient questions.”

While the panic-stricken mainstream was yammering about “worst hurricane season ever” we looked for the data to support such claims.

The correct answer is?  2005.

That article was usefully titled “Ugly “Climate Change” Crap.

Today, our view is being vindicated. “Lack of sunspots to bring record cold, warns NASA scientist shows up on Robert Felix’ “Ice Age Now” site.  See the related “The Chill of Solar Minimum.”  As Robert noted in his remarks, “It Could Happen in a Few Months…” 

We will have additional remarks on point in coming weeks.  Not just because it’s winter, but there’s a chance that some real money can be made by understanding – and synthesizing the news about cold – for profit.

Let me show you what I mean as a “get-started” gift to get you thinking.

Let’s imagine that several “assertions” are true.

  1. Global warming was crap and (as it’s peeking at us now) so is “climate change” – hurricanes, floods, and fires been around forever.
  2. There is a Long Wave in Economics.  We are about to find out if my friend Robin Landry is right and we’re going through a major Elliott Wave IV – with a year or three long Wave V to the upside yet to come.  OR, Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave International holds the right view saying (essentially) It’s over NOW.
  3. Oil, in case you haven’t noticed is “in the tank.”  Longest Losing Streak on Record figures MarketWatch.
  4. The US Federal Budget deficit is about to do a moonshot.

Pay attention here – because if you want to get “rich” (sending a one percent tip would be nice, lol) here’s ONE WAY things could work out:

We know that in Elliott V’s that the price of precious metals goes up.  Historically, anyway.  So do other commodities like food and oil.  What are the drivers in play right now that could result in a Fifth Wave Up – in the face of a massive solar minimum?

  • We know that energy of all kinds will go up in price because we will be using a LOT MORE to keep warm and there will be more ag inputs to make enough food for 7+ billion peeps when the heat gets turned down by Ma Nature and her Sun.
  • We can already see the collapse of the dollar on the horizon.  The present purchasing power (in terms of calories and real estate) is less than 4% of what it was when the banksters seized the lawful money-creation role from Congress in 1913.
  • Ultimately, the government will need to reassert its role over money,  Called “conspiracy theories about Kennedy’s death” the late Jim Marr’s book “Crossfire: The Plot That Killed Kennedy” has enough verifiable facts to be very worrisome.
  • This means pegging the value of money to something other than political jingoisms,  Like Gold, Silver or the Next Gold: which could very well be oil if the Big Cold is really coming.  (Jury is out, we’re just play Bull here, lol).
  • Also, remember that the whole Digital Tulips movement can blow-up any time.  What’s to prevent you, me, and a six-pack from making up our own crypto currency, right?  I assume you have read all the gory details on the energy wasted in “mining” the digital tulip fields?   Before you spend one red cent on a Crypto, go read the chapter “v.
  • Cryptocurrencies: Looking Beyond the Hype:” by the Bank for International Settlements.
    • “But the issue goes well beyond storage capacity, and extends to processing capacity: only supercomputers could keep up with verification of the incoming transactions. The associated communication volumes could bring the internet to a halt, as millions of users exchanged files on the order of magnitude of a terabyte…”

On top of being a total energy waste.  Our short 69-years on the planet suggests NOT betting against the gnomes of Zurich.

An aside: There’s a reason most of them banking gnomes are referred to as Herr Doktor…they’re usually very damn smart.

Smart, understand, is often confused with conspiracies.  Think of this “Ure axiom” as the economics version of Arthur C. Clake’s Third Law:  “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”

When you get sufficiently smart, the crowds with the pitchforks get nervous (Look on Facebook for ’em) and they will call it a conspiracy and here comes a twit-storm.

In our own VERY ROUGH CLOUD of ideas, the overarching strategies – if we live long enough to see it through – go something like this:

  • Play the short side of the market, stepping to cash like we did yesterday when the bulk of a short-term decline is toast.
  • NOT playing the short-term bounces like the one which could power the market up for a Fibonacci retracement for  a couple of days.
  • Then, at the bottom, roll into an assortment of “hard assets” like buying oil stocks based on cost of proven reserves per share…
  • Then enjoy the Wave V super blow-off in 2019.
  • When that’s done – and the Cold New World begins to really bite in and global economics has its wheels coming off, again be over on the short side for the “profits of a lifetime.”

Of course, by then, I will be 71, or so, and it’s not like there’s much of anything that I haven’t already done in life.  Still, writing up Big Picture columns like this one – with the goal of opening up your thinking to a different kind of future – well, what can be better than helping a few brothers and sisters out, huh?

So that’s present thinking.  NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.

Pass it on to your friends and remember, there’s a growing body of evidence, not the least of which is Sun spots that argues while Mr. Ure is nutty and ADHD, he’s not quite crazy.  The bank might even agree.

Quips and Quotes

Some mornings it’s like Diogenes looking for an honest story around here.  One that didn’t come out of a PR firm of government agency…

October Balance of Trade Data will improve when the data is released down the road.  We know this because? “Boeing’s October 737 deliveries up on strong demand.” Remember who told you the future.

This was a given: “U.S. judge halts Keystone XL oil pipeline in blow to Trump, Trudeau.”  A given why?  Appointed by Barack Obama in 2013, perhaps?

Still more evidence that economic expansion is going on below the surface in “CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Find the Overall US Mortgage Delinquency Rate in August Fell to the Lowest Level in More Than 12 Years.”

And yes, they really are out there: “Irish Authorities Are Investigating UFOs Reported By 3 Commercial Pilots on a Single Night.”  Just too much data…but what can the global controllers hide and for how long?

That’s the rub, ain’t it?

OK – Peoplenomics and Prepping tomorrow…tell your closest 10,000 friends about UrbanSurvival and come on back tomorrow.

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George Ure
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51 thoughts on “Three Important “I Told You So’s””

  1. Interesting George but we won’t know the end until we get there nor how it will play out, and as they say the best laid plans of men and mice off times go astray.Until we get rid of the 1% (the capitalist) nothing will change, until we get rid of the MIC nothing will change, until we get rid of those in government, the congress and the house who are only tools of the 1% nothing will change, and I don’t see any of those things changing as they continue to plunge the country deeper in debt with no end in sight.Looks to me to be the perfect storm the only question being how many will survive..

    • The one percent are not capitalists. They are mercantilists, an insider club with interlocking directorates, private undocumented “arrangements”, and well funded lobbyists.

      Real capitalists are everywhere – renting and renovating houses, selling on Ebay and Craigslist, fixing cars and mowing lawns.

      • Exactly! All revealed in “Behold a Pale Horse’ by William Cooper. He describes exactly how they operate and function. Mandatory reading for all good citizens with open minds. After over 30 years of attacking our Republic, it is a wonder the sheep can accumulate a thing to pass on to their heirs. Most can’t even come up with $400 for an emergency.
        A very important takeaway: “This reality is reflected in a new study of wages in Silicon Valley, which we might assume would keep up due to the higher value of the region’s output. The study found the wages of the bottom 90% declined when adjusted for inflation by as much as 14% over the past 20 years:

        “The just-released report showed that wages for 90 percent of Silicon Valley workers (all levels of workers except for the top 10 percent)are lower now than they were 20 years ago, after adjusting for inflation. That’s in stark contrast to the 74 percent increase in overall per capita economic output in the Valley from 2001 to 2017.”

        source: Why Silicon Valley Income Inequality Is Just a Preview of What’s to Come for the Rest of the U.S.”

    • Robert..the compounding interest will continue to dig us deeper..a couple months ago it was 2 billion plus a day. Increasing daily.
      Our esteemed leaders are only living in a bubble with the only ones whispering in their ears is the tempted. I think they’ve destroyed most of the constitution to the point that it doesn’t matter. That’s why the right in your face actions compared

  2. Professor Valentina Zharkova’s Impressive Work

    It is very cold Fall in Chicago this year. Temps are more like January than November as we move into solar cycle 24. The cold temps are not surprising to anyone following Valentina Zharkova’s research. For those interested in this research you can watch Professor Zharkova give a presentation of her Climate and the Solar Magnetic Field hypothesis here:

    What is so cool about Professor Zharkova’s research is that she did this in her spare time without any grant money. As solar cycle 24 accelerates, tremendous profit opportunities should be available to those who understand what’s going on. Even if you’re not a scientist it’s pretty easy to determine if Zharkova’s hypothesis has merit. At first the presentation may be boring, but watch the whole thing and I think Professor Zharkova will win you over.

    • Re profit opportunies…it won’t be just oil that will do well. Everything that supports the energy infrastructure will also do well. Motors, valves, control systems, wire, etc.

      • You can tell I’m bored — Wasting my Day of Recovery by responding to obvious trolls…

        The reason BELIEF is required to further the GCC narrative, is because it is a RELIGION, not provable by scientific method.

        Had we no climate change, the Earth and everything on it would be dead.

        The maximum possible influence of Man on global warming between ~12000BC and NOW is 0.005°C. The maximum possible influence of Man on global cooling between ~12000BC and NOW is 0.002°C.

        Please put some pants on, go back to school and learn some simple arithmetic, then go to the library, garner some actual geologic facts, and use your newly-found arithmetic skills to do the damn’ math, yourself.

        …Worse’n the Bernie Backers, whining that a penny-per-transaction on the Dow would completely finance “free college for all,” a figure which is lowball by a factor of at least ten thousand. Leftist shills are really good at exaggeration for the purpose of justifying a point, and when they own the MSM, as they do, nobody can call their obvious deviations from reality.

      • Ray Ray Ray…lol lol don’t work yourself into a lol I’ll sit this debate on climate change out…so grab a cup of coffee and a danish and relax before you stroke out.
        It doesn’t make any difference at all. If we’ve really put to many mice in the jar or altered the face of the globe to the point that our actions are affecting the climate. If we have then its already to late. None of it will really hit us directly but will be the worries of those a hundred years from now.
        The only thing we will see is a steady increase in global catastrophic events.
        That’s why people still keep rebuilding in areas known to have periodic catastrophic events.
        Its kind of like printing money..if we’ve printed to much money in reference to our ability to support it then its to late you cannot stop the change.the corrections have to happen. Of course a bandaid can be put on the wound but it will eventually have to happen

      • LOOTB, it actually doesn’t make a difference. Earth is an incredibly resourceful and resilient biosphere. When a species radically outstrips the planet’s ability to support it, there will be a correction, usually in the form of a mass die-off. We can still support the 7bln+ humans currently breathing, because of “Better Living through Chemistry.” However, a slight drop in the air all plants breathe, which is carbon dioxide, would cause a massive drop in the quantity and quality of food and forage crops, irrespective the best efforts of Monsanto and ConAgra. Being a more-efficient and more-conceited species than any other, when we begin starving worldwide and run out of cows & pigs and dogs & cats, we will kill off the lions and tigers and apes, and eventually each other for food, because “we deserve to live…”

        Personally, I prefer that my green, leafy plants be bright green, and the above remain a dystopian nightmare.

  3. I notice you are studiously avoiding the “Fake News” stories about the President dishonoring our fallen troops. And while it may (or may not) be true that the Secret Service told him not to fly or drive in the rain in France, there was absolutely nothing stopping him (or Pence)from going to Arlington Cemetery to honor the men that sacrificed their lives for your freedom (and Trump’s). And to top that off Trump suggesting, on Veterans Day, that overseas troops shouldn’t have their votes counted just so Republicans can (potentially) avoid losing another Senate seat? Disgusting.

    The man is, and always has been, a con artist who got in over his head. He has never cared about America, the Constitution or the rule of law. He only cares about lining his pockets and boosting his own ego.

    Good luck with your cult of personality.

    • You understand that you are a Trump Hater whose sole goal is to find fault with everything PT does. He is the first President to fulfill his campaign promises. He did not lie or con anyone to become President.

      • @ECS: IFF this is true

        “And to top that off Trump suggesting, on Veterans Day, that overseas troops shouldn’t have their votes counted just so Republicans can (potentially) avoid losing another Senate seat?”

        then you are saying that this is finding fault for no cause. I am puzzled as to what you would consider “real cause” for concern. Please tell me / us!

      • The fact is, he beat about a dozen of the GOP and the Clinton machine. He didn’t do that with just good looks. And you’re right; first Pres in my 6 decades+ on the planet to work down his promise punch list just like his builder roots.
        I’d venture a guess the majority visiting here feel the same.

      • Artisan pro – this was a response by PT on the election fraud going on in certain states. It has nothing to do with Armed Forces on deployment being denied the vote (which would be pro republican).

        Your hate for PT has blinded you.

    • ” there was absolutely nothing stopping him (or Pence)from going to Arlington Cemetery to honor the men that sacrificed their lives for your freedom”

      Except 4000 miles…

      Arlington National Cemetery is a piece of land donated to the United States by General Robert E. Lee, for use as a Civil War cemetery. There are soldiers from that war, and from every war hence, interred there. Virtually NONE of the tens of thousands of U.S., or Canadian, British, Scotch, Irish, Indian, and Nepalese soldiers who died between Normandy and Paris got to be so-honored. Why do you believe THEY should be forgotten?

      “And to top that off Trump suggesting, on Veterans Day, that overseas troops shouldn’t have their votes counted just so Republicans can (potentially) avoid losing another Senate seat?”

      This is called “sarcasm,” and was a commentary on certain polling oversight in the States of Arizona and Florida. Overseas American soldiers typically vote between 70%-80% Republican for National candidates, a fact of which Mr. Trump is well-aware.

      The only “disgusting” things here are the incredible lack of [sense of humor] of the 5th columnists, and the staggering gullibility of the folks who worship them…

    • Amen CR…a trip to Arlington cemetery..just like the shrine in Oklahoma can feel just how reverent the cemetary is. As if the spirits are still there with you..

  4. “if my friend Robin Landry is right and we’re going through a major Elliott Wave IV – with a year or three long Wave V to the upside yet to come. OR, Bob Prechter of Elliott Wave International holds the right view saying (essentially) It’s over NOW.”

    After the move Elliott Wave is always correct ;-( I wish I’d never heard of this crap! However, opinions vary.

  5. If I had the hardware, I’d be mining cryptos today! We had a honeymoon Fall until this week, and now it’s been below freezing for a couple of days and single digits last night. I can heat with electricity, gas, or wood, and wood is cheapest. Mining cryptos using solar power seems to be a good way to heat, even if the coins have uncertain value. Just sell them as you mine them. Unfortunately, there’s a significant time investment to learn what you’re doing and I don’t have that time available.

    BTW, having high thermal mass inside the insulation envelope of a house makes for great comfort by minimizing diurnal temperature shifts. Small things such as this can make living much more comfortable.

    I’m most curious to divine the direction of the commodity markets, including metals(base and PM). For now, they seem to be in a deep stall, regardless of logic and fundamentals.

  6. Jim Marrs being a source in the Temple of Rational Thought – ODG!

    As for the markets, maybe this time….

    • Try to remember that Jim Marrs [and Alex Jones FTM] were both highly-regarded and highly-skilled investigative journalists, before they went off on their non-mainstream tangents. Marrs might have been bit by the ET-bug, but his stuff had sufficient credence that the University of Texas added “ETs and Flying Saucers” to its science curriculum, “The JFK Assassination” to its Humanities courses, and hired Marrs as one of the curricula lecturers for both…

  7. I think you have one more “I told you so” looming on the horizon. I think the SALT deduction limitation which has been addressed will be a downward driver. I think reality hits hard on this one when returns are prepared. Those who are used to “stacking” their property tax payments (pay Jan & Dec) into a year so they get to itemize every other year are going to really feel this one. Is it just me or does anyone else feel the hand in THEIR pocket whenever some politician wants to target (or punish) “the rich”.

  8. G – cant help but wonder what will happen to real estate in the northern half of continental U.S. as winters become increasingly brutal and nasty. I know folks from New England area around Boston, MA that have had enough and r looking to “migrate” south..disapora? Growing food and staying warm may prove nigh impossible if in you live the northern tier of US.The above concerns of course will be rendered moot if our Solar neighbor decides to pop off a “kill shot” as col. Ed. Dames predicted 15 years ago or so..really interesting times we live in.
    The market action has been super fantastic,if market is moving then there is opportunity to KILL! reminds me of the scene from Apocalypse Now with Lance & Kilgoure – “that smell, you smell that? Napalm son,nothing else in the world smells like that..I luv the smell of napalm in the morning..the smell, you know the gasoline smell..victory!”
    Here we go George a new rally cry.. STFR! r=rally.

  9. George, wow, it’s like amnesia, all over again.

    You forgot, accidentally I’m sure, to mention the 10% just added to the national debt . . . by Your Team offloading major expense from corporate America’s balance sheets . . . by adding it to the national debt . . . so they could . . . buy back more of their own stock.
    A pure subsidy. Deficit stimulus. Like infrastructure, but without any bridges.

    Nor how the FRED chart shows federal revenues have literally fallen off a cliff the past two quarters. And already you’re trying to blame someone else for this trend continuing the next two quarters. You like charts, but I see you don’t run that chart, ever.

    So much for trashing the US Dollar. Best, Mike

  10. Ok. So im 48 years old. Would you sign up for a 30 year mortgage at my age? It wont be paid off till im 80 years old. In 5 years my daughter will be 18 ( i have her every other weekend) and i pretty much live by myself. I dont really need a huge house. I have a little 2 bedroom place on lake ballenger/ inteturban trail. I will retire in 14 years with a full unuon pension and will more than likely move out of country to some place cheep to live like Panama. What would you do?

    I recently cut my monthly expenses to exactly what i make take home claiming 0, in one week. I will be completely debt free by January.

    Currently shopping or thinking about getting a used Dodge Viper GTS for fun. You can get a 2005-2008 with 850 bph, 0-60 3.2 seconds with a top speed of 202 mph got between $40-50k. I can put down 60% and pay it off in less than 6 months.

    I also have a Subaru commuter car thats paid off and only cost me ,$50 for liability insurance. Lol

    What would you do? Everyone says buy a house again. Why? What fer?

    I aint getting married againand i aint starting another family. Lol


    • Andy – why not save the 60% down payment for your daughters eduction, or to give her a down payment for a house, or to buy a house in Panama when you retire. A Viper is like getting penis enlargement surgery.

      • Ecs, my kids college fund is already taken care of up to a masters degree at any major state university in the US, including dorm housing and food. Took care of that when they were born.

        I dont need a penis extention. Funny, people used to say that about my Dodge mega cab 4X4 lifted on 38’s. My ex wife would correct them in a hurry. uhmmm nope! He doesnt need one of those.

        Plus i date pleanty of beautiful women in my 1993 subaru legacy L. Ha ha ha

        Idk. Maybe i buy a house as an investment. I just dont really need one. Im just banking cash and paying off debt right now.

        Even if the economy collapses, we have work for the next 5 years. Lots of big already funded Gov projects. So im secure in my job.

        Just thought id ask.

    • I’m not George but I wouldn’t go in to debt right now for anything. beyond using a credit card to buy my monthly expenses. If that.

    • Andy, I think you need to do what my son does: Get some gear and spend a few weekends alone, snow camping (not in an avalanche shed like G2 does, lol)_ and get your priorities a bit more organized.
      IMHO what you need before anything is more time to heal, more time to get to know yourself, accept thereof, and then honestly look for a kindred soul.
      You see, I didn’t really “settle down” until I had been in relationships (after divorce) for six years, or so. Even then, I was still getting comfortable with “me.”
      Once that happened – I made a lot of hard choices – ones I have never regretted for an instant. Circa 1998.
      Two years later, met Elaine and life has been a bed of roses ever since. Not on the financial side though it’s fine – as that isn’t what matters. But on the “me man, you woman, let’s complete each other” side. I am genuinely a blessed man.
      Once you find the right woman, be in a position to “seek the adventures together” In terms of cars? You can buy something much less $$$ that is more worthy. The Viper “screams I’m an insecure male” and all that is missing is a pitbull or a monster dog in the car right seat. No room for another human; see it?. That screams “no room for A Woman.” Which means no commitment.
      Take your hobbies. Like to hike? What vehicle (other than the Buru) do you need?
      There is a “big change” in life for all of us…comes at various ages. When you can read a whole novel without thinking of getting laid, lol.
      But it’s when you ask the Big “What am I doing here?” and along with that answer “Who do I love and who loves me?”
      See, there’s the verse that goes to the idea “If I have all the fottunes and all the fame in the world and have not Love, I am nothing.”
      But I know economics. Gotta give to get. You don’t get heat from the fire until you throw some wood on it.
      Instead of fields of wild oats, might a single Oak or a pair of Giant Sequoias be a better Testament to time spend at the Rock 3 smorgasbord?
      Don’t know if you’ve read my latest book, but in order to “touch” the Bigger with more clarity and regularity, you need to become really calm down in the inners of soul. That means not having “turnover” in the companion department. Conquest? The battle is with self – and so that’s where I would focus. Since you did ask…
      Thing is it is REAL WORK
      There is a good starting point I used: Make a list: What do I have that I can bring to the table. Then, what is the ideal partner and someone who can keep me grounded, entertained, happy, up, fulfilled, and who is willing to go along with any (or most) hare-brained ideas I come up with?
      Then once you have the Andy List and the Other Spec Sheet begin to work on market research. Come up with a plan, interview process, stages of product development. Get into the market and close the Big Deal of Life.
      It’s a process.
      Getting your heart “broken” is part of the game…but running from pain doesn’t solve it. Neither does buying a faster car. I bought faster airplane time, lol. Still me once I landed. Good lesson about Georgedumb.
      Thing is, we each have infinite potential to achieve happiness but I wouldn’t buy real estate until the economy up there cools a good bit, anyway. Seattle is way over the top for now.
      Sometimes its OK to just let yourself get clear, get up, do the 12 hour days, then take time to read, study, reflect. What’s your back-up plan if the pension plan fails in a souring economy full of robots?
      Where’s Andyt0pia? What the plan there?
      When your mind is as placid as a lake on a calm day, then you can see the reflection of the future you want better.
      What I read is “Dad? Can I distract myself so I don’t have to face up to my shortcomings and can I have some more bling to complete the self illusion?:”
      No, I think you’re a much greater – and more connected guy than that. You have gifts, use them, stack cash, search for Ms Right.
      When you have had “moments of grace” work with those. Learn to relax and put it all in the hands of Universe…it will all work out like it should
      But along the way, find someone to share it with. I’m almost 70 – Elaine beat me there by a few. But we are still as close, personal, intimate and in love as day 1. Amazing!
      You can do it, too, Andy. To find a worthy soul, BE a worthy soul. Ground yourself. And remember from Richard Back’s book “Illusions”
      “In the path of our happiness lies the learning for which we have chosen this lifetime.”
      A viper will MAYBE get you laid by superficial women, but your heart? Z’at what you’re really after? Try something that makes you happy if you work at it. Gardens need tending, right?
      And what’s wrong with “fleeing” to rural America? Better shopping that in south or central America – and how IS your Spanish?
      Things to ponder, young man…from an older one.

      • Much better advise on the Viper than mine!

        I didn’t even think of the “laid” potential of the vehicle, only that it could be played with for a year or two, detailed, and flipped for a $40k profit…

      • Thanks George, i appreciate you and your honesty. I will savor your words and contemplate them carefully.

        I agree, wait to buy a house for now…

        And well yeah…. id like to find love. And ure right, the last one kicked my ass, bad.

        So im kinda in limbo… not sure what to do with myself. Kinda getting bored with 25-28 year olds.

        Anyway, thanks old dude!

        Good stuff!

      • George, Andy’s success with serial females and your response make be sad beyond belief. I’ve never found any car(or boat, airplane, or house) useful in getting any girl in bed, from the fanciest to the most trashy. It’s one reason I don’t bother with fancy things anymore. I never knew why any girl wanted a guy or didn’t, and I still don’t. I know what I offer, and it is about strength, intelligence, stability and assets. I never figured out how to offer the laughing, spontaneity, and fun/teasing things, though I’ve worked on that for decades. Since I was Andy’s age until yours, I’ve had a few failed relationships and now nothing at all, regardless of effort. Direct payment makes more sense. Obviously Andy knows what he’s doing and I don’t. If a guy can attract a girl, then he’s blessed. If he has access to more than one, then pick the one that’s a best fit and make something that will last.

        The only honest man that can avoid thinking about getting laid long enough to read a book is one who gets regular sex and love to saturation. Even then, he better be a fast reader. Once you get beyond a certain age, it seems that females stop seeing you as a sex object, no matter how well you dress or handle yourself. Seeking female company is very time consuming and uncertain, even in a big city, and it saps your energy to the core. After reading Andy’s story, I’m tempted to move to Seattle, though part of me thinks that it’s a waste of time. You’re really lucky, blessed, or something else to have acquired Elaine. I know it entails work and risk, but there’s some other element involved.

    • Yes!

      I personally would buy a house — a solid little house, preferably a duplex, in an absolutely stable neighborhood, away from trendy stuff and the insane pricing of the area (although by now one might have to go clear to Helena to completely escape the SeaTac pricing.) Were it me, I would be looking for a fixer-upper for which I could pay cash. I wouldn’t, though. I’d put 90% down, take out a 30-year fixed, use a portion of the mortgage to make it really pleasant, and invest the rest until I’d accrued the 10% back, then I would roll it into a savings account at the bank from which I secured the mortgage. I would do this last in-lieu of “mortgage life insurance” to save thousands over the course of the note.

      Since you already have the property, you’re more than half-way there.

      Once you live in a house for at least 184 days, you can make it your legal address for property tax purposes.

      Given your cottage, you have a place to live for cheap, a mail drop with a U.S. address should you decide to become an ex-pat (make “compensated remailing service” a requirement for anyone who later rents the property from you, and if you’ve important stuff which comes by post, throw ’em a bone to forward it to you), and with the acquisition of a mortgage (in some places an equity LOC works, in others, not so much) you’re entitled to both a mortgage exemption and a homestead exemption (which for me, drop my property tax liability to nearly nothing.)

      Look into property tax exemptions at your local county offices. They don’t advertise them, and they don’t issue past-year refunds if you pay more than your legal obligation. Some counties issue exemptions for blind, disabled, elderly, veterans, HEMOG (high efficiency or modified off-grid), and all kinds of stuff…

      Live in a low-tax or no-tax area? Don’t bet it’ll remain so. ALL politicians believe they’re more-competent to spend your money than you. In Liberal bastions (like nearly the entire PNY), the pols don’t, at heart, believe that money in your wallet is even yours, and work themselves into a rabid frenzy, figuring out how to get ever-more of it out of your hands and into theirs, where they think it belongs.

      The Viper is a good idea, so’s an underappreciated Ferrari or Lambo, because if you don’t break ’em, they’re appreciating assets. I nearly bought a 308 years ago — $30k new, $5-7k, 10 years old. Ugly stepchild to the REAL (read: V-12) FERRARIS like the Berlinetta and the Redhead, but they caught on with the Millenials and are now doubling every three years…

      BTW, good to see a post from you!

    • Andy it depends on the bank..if you can pay ahead or extra without penalty..split payments etc. I lucked out and my bank allows that. Higher interest but that’s ok. On an average mortgage the majority goes towards interest..add the same amount that’s being deducted from principle and you’ve just made a double payment..split the payment in two you pay the loan before daily interest is applied..both can cut the home loan in two easily. A hundred spent today is worth a grand in five years.
      Rent or buy you pay either way.

  11. “hurricanes, floods, and fires been around forever.”

    Lol lol lol..yup they have.. I’ll not debate climate change since it’s a natural cycle and will be forever. The debate lies not that there is a climate change but whether mankind has any influence on how fast it progresses.
    I say it doesn’t matter. Since 1980 or there abouts till now occurances have doubled and the rate will continue until the correction is made. For us it doesn’t matter because its a lot like boiling frogs it’s moving slow enough that we won’t notice a fifty thousand acre fire will expand to a five hundred thousand acre fire..any changes made now wouldn’t benefit anyone alive today but great great great grand children.

    • “we won’t notice a fifty thousand acre fire will expand to a five hundred thousand acre fire”

      We’ll notice, but the expansion will be from idiot Kumbaya types, spouting drivel about forests being allowed to take care of themselves. They always win out in the debate against forestry professionals, who favor periodic clearing of tinder and a limitation of paths by which a fire can capture a forest’s canopy. They also never volunteer to fight the fire, once their stupidity has fueled it.

      • I’m with you on proper wood lot management. What ruined it was the few greedy for more and instead managing the wood lots properly they would clear cut. Sad but true.. My father was a woodsman every tree he cut he planted new. A different area but a new tree.

  12. I wonder how many people made fun of another man that brought up earth changes..
    He built a boat in the middle of the high plains..I can hear them now as they walked by…Hey NOAH…it’s looking like rain…lol lol lol all disbelieving that anything catastrophic could happen. In several thousand years will good old AL be remembered as the one who rang the alarm while everyone chuckled at what he was worried about.
    Most of us don’t see a benefit to being concerned about our future generations really if it affects the profits of today well seriously who gives a FF about fifty years from now. We will be gone

    • No. In several dozen years, Al will be remembered as the con man who hated botany and the Earth so much he created a way to tax the air we breathe, and suffocate all plant life at the same time.

      If humans still exist in a thousand years, indeed, if Earth herself is still extant, nobody will remember Al at all, except possibly in a footnote, as the founder of a universally-destructive, secular religious movement.

    • Curmudgeon

      curmudgeon (plural curmudgeons)

      (archaic) A miser.
      An ill-tempered person full of stubborn ideas or opinions.
      There’s a cranky curmudgeon working at the hospital who gives all the patients and other doctors flak.
      John Doe’s old age and stubborn aversion to new ideas make him a curmudgeon of a candidate.

      Now look up Philistine.

  13. God bless the judge who could see the truth and stopped it!

    (Another reflection on Trump and his supporters, they could care less about the environment, so hey, contaminate the Oglalla aquifer, 5th largest in the U.S., with oil. Then you get to drink it!)

    14 leaks occurred in the first year, and they ARE NOT using the newest technology to detect pipeline leaks:

    One oil spill per month, each worse than a railway spill:

    • “Truth” being that Warren Buffett makes ~$3mln/day on that oil, every day it doesn’t travel down a pipeline.


      Pipelines built to proper spec are much less likely to ever leak than any other means of transporting liquids, unless they are tampered with or sabotaged.

      • Not a tree hugger Joe.. Just research how many accidents the company has had by not following the protocols set in front of them. I wouldn’t want them fixing my roof any time soon.

  14. @ Exactly!

    Wages, nobody in a Socialist country needs wages. The government will provide for everything. Just ask many of the democrat voters as to WHY they voted for ‘the ticket’. It may be because the Republicans and Trump are Hated, OR it may be that many will receive their’wages’ from the politicians that they elected….So a socialist voter does not need wages….Bill Cooper (may he rest in peace} must be rolling in his grave as to the status of this country he tried to inform….so far only death to the good guys…BUT soon I think the other shoe will drop and it will be ‘pay back’time….imo

  15. Doesn’t the market in general tend to follow oil? Or at least, be seriously influenced by it? I don’t know. Just putting that out there

  16. Are you concerned about “Global Cooling” (and I am one)?
    Then when are we going to start questioning the obvious arial spraying of the atmosphere, supposedly to shield the planet from excessive solar radiation?
    The last thing we need is a cooling of the earth as it will lead to a reduction in food production and inevitable mass starvation. Remember that Agenda 21 calls for a reduction in the earths human population, and mass starvation would be one way to do it.
    There are many theories about the aerial spraying, depending what the material actually is and the purpose. One intriguing theory is that the atmosphere is a semiconductor and is being ‘doped’ to turn it into a giant grounded collector transistor that can be used to control ionospheric electric current to power tropospheric storms (hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.), as it is insane to conclude that warm water can power a hurricane.
    We had better hope that global cooling does not happen!

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