The Short-Term Future Matters Now

Monster Week could be coming up starting Tuesday.  So today we look at the event calendar and consider some of the sizzling fuses that are already lit.

Our objective is to get enough sense about what’s just ahead to avoid being run over by it. Oh, and if we make a few bucks along the way, why, that’d be OK, too.

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58 thoughts on “The Short-Term Future Matters Now”

  1. “Our run through the charts doesn’t require a lot of explanation.”

    Ha ha. I haven’t been able to understand the charts for years. Maybe a little back when I first discovered you.

    Reply
      • For me, it would require say one chart a week explaining what it meant first, its place in the world of forecasting, then what it represented each day and how that change was related to external events, plus examples of how people use it to make decisions…

        And since I would rarely use it anymore it wouldn’t be worth your effort. I was really into cycles 20 yrs ago, there was ‘Cycles’ magazine. And your 1929 chart grabbed me. But now eyes glaze over.

        Reply
  2. WAR schmwar..its all bullscheisse, Chief.

    The wars are FAKE, the massacres are REAL.

    ..the twists and turns of the ukey war that we observe are the work of the authorities to protect the interests of the Russian oligarchate.
    Thus no pipelines, gas lines, bridges over dnieper – nothing of value to Russian oligarchs will be or has been touched, nothing. These guys have huge interests in Russian Defense manufacturers as well..its really just too chabad..

    There is rumored hypersonic “strike” overnight in Bremerton, WA area..no clue truth of matta though. Suspicious report at best.

    Gold and Silver looking pretty shiny here, couldnt help myself, had to take The Oil Trade this weak.
    Rolling profits from PM options trading into Oil Co’s that pay fat dividends, especially my fav Aussie gas outfit…named after what you get in my household should you wake up next to the Man – woodside.
    BTC still in consolidation via downward wedge, just testing 50DMA, need to push thru 120DMA and 200DMA before jumping back in, till then on side line in Cash, which ironically is losing Value every dam day. FJB! You see the INTEREST Payments on Ure Debt ?
    “its massive”..I know, thats what she said..nyucknyuck

    Solar ? – Would you sell excess capacity back to Ure electric utility OR run a BTC Mining rig (miner) off excess generation. As the mining rig only costs U Bitcoin – which is “worthless” according resident experts opinion here – cost of this setup is
    ZERO.

    Whats in Ure wallet ?

    Reply
    • Yes that strike idea is far out, Here is my comment on another site:

      “In his radio show last night, but not on his website this morning as he said it was, Hal said that there was a 2.7 ABOVE GROUND ‘earthquake’ reported by USGS yesterday morning near Bremerton, WA. He showed a USGS report of this event sometime yesterday but not now.

      He suggests it was a missile from a nearby Russian sub; a warning from Russia. And that the path of the missile overflew the Jim Creek Naval Radio Station before exploding harmlessly in the woods.

      He says this is the only very low frequency station the US has to communicate with our subs around the world and is on our list of potential targets for the Russians to bomb in the US.

      This might be the event note it was at a minus depth:

      https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/uw62037567/executive 1

      (There do seem to be a lot of these size earthquakes there.)”

      Reply
      • Jim Creek. LOL, no, it’s the Joe Creek Naval Radio Station. BTW, according to Google Earth I live about 25 miles from the site of that 2.7 “quake.” Have only heard about it on Hal’s site.

        Reply
      • The location of this quake is on the eastside of the main Cascade range about 30 miles northwest of me which is nowhere near Bremerton. The location was 8 km east of Winthrop, WA. If it was at the surface it likely could have been a large rock slide.

        Reply
      • Jim Creek is quite ways north and east of Bremerton. Can’t imagine a missile from the ocean going over Jim Creek and landing in Bremerton.

        Reply
        • Thought about that too, Wacky. Howsomever, an SLCM using terrain avoidy stuff opens a whole soup can of probabilities. I think it’s farfetched that they’d do it, but the impact would have been worth it in the Gremlin, who knows? I don’t suppose any of our readers have an unclas turning radius handy on the Kalibr, Beryusa, and Sizzler class birds, to they? 1500 km range is 932 statute, and call it a buck and a quarter up to Jim Creek fro Bremerton, plus 50 miles lost for maneuvering, which would still put the launch point way out in the deep water we’ve been watching…for the Big Seattle Quake. Not sure we are wired that deep out there – way above my clearance level, lol.

    • chat gpt 4.5 picked November..so I won’t worry until november…the usa does most of our stuff during holidays ..what we might see is more of the BLM ANTIFA style terrorist uprisings..when they did their Sherman type march across the USA it took everyone by surprise and after defunding police it’s am open field.. the bad part of that was BLM ANTIFA sent the masses of the general population to the gun shops to defend their homes..now that could get ugly..if a free for all started then the election could be put on hold and Marshall law begins..because the usa would be in an active state of emergency.. then ..is that what they had planned..like the alleged group at the capital January 6th that were all alleged agency personnel sent there to get the people herd like fashion actively storm the capital.. we will never know for sure.

      Reply
  3. Word value drift.
    With time, the meanings of words and phrases shift, sometimes subtly, sometimes greatly. As a member of the trailing edge (1944) of the generation before the Baby Boomers — the so-called”Silent Generation,” — I have to be careful because some things I say don’t mean to today’s ear what I actually want to express.

    “Exponential” is an over-applied and distorted thing now, compared to what it accurately means, in mathematics. Many of the semi-literate now use it to mean simply, “a lot more of ” …whatever.

    “Curtail” is another. Most ink-stained wretches of the press now use it to mean, “eliminated,” where it actually means, “reduced,” or even “sharply reduced;” but not eliminated.

    “I could care less!” usually is employed to indicate, “I could NOT care less.” (The original form.)

    One of my favorites is, “X doesn’t JIVE with Y.” (meaning ‘agree’) They actually mean “JIBE,” but now only sailors get that one right anymore.

    “Anymore,” itself has — but I digress.

    As an evolving and flixible language, this is common in English. (I started collecting these things, but quickly gave up: there were too many — and nobody cared.)

    Point is:
    A lot of modern-speak is euphemized or softened, and it loses definition and accuracy in so doing. It’s less clear. Presummably, this is done to avoid giving offense to some imaginary somebody, and is at the root of why “Politically Correct” speech is dangerous.

    You can’t effectively fight a thing if you can’t name it clearly and unambiguously.

    “You shoot at my reactors, and I’ll nuke your ass into oblivion,” is clear, even if a bit hostile.

    Reply
    • “You shoot at my reactors, and I’ll nuke your ass into oblivion,” is clear, even if a bit hostile.

      Why does our elected Government in Washington NOT understand this simple statement when it’s so clear to me?

      Why is “nuclear war” NOT comprehended by most of US living folks? Lack of proper education, in my very humble opinion; Therefore, I’m sick of posting. ;-((

      Reply
      • The problem ith you, Bruno, is you are smart, listen to what other people have to say, and you have no axes to grind (at least that we know of). Now contrast that with the slime along the banks of the…um…. Besides, you prolly can’t be bought. See the contrast?

        Reply
  4. “estimated 92-million dead in the first few hours”

    Be careful panic-shooting up the neighborhood/exacting revenge if the lights go out. After some amount of time if the lights comeback online those who panicked will likely be held accountable. On the other hand those who panic first panic best.

    Reply
      • I introduced it here, using Cloward-Piven to explain what Soros and Steyer were trying to accomplish by slamming our Southern border with tens of thousands of invaders.

        Cloward-Piven is a social warfare theory which essentially says an organization can target one facet of the social or societal infrastructure of a free society and overload it to the point it breaks. If they then control the rebuilding of that facet, they can rebuild it as a tool of socialism, then use the tool they created to more-easily corrupt other facets of a free society.

        LOOB was the only one who was paying attention.

        Reply
  5. George, seems like your four figure bet on a six figure prize might be in alignment with the Puetz Panic Window we’re currently in. Goes six days before and three days after the lunar eclipse, which is on the 17th. In past Puetz crashes (1929, 1987, 1997 Hang Seng and several prior) lunar eclipse followed solar eclipse, so it occurred in October. This year lunar eclipse precedes solar (10/2), so it is predicted for September. Puetz says it’s the full moon before or after the solar eclipse, but the lunar eclipse full moon is favored.

    Was that a double short shakeout last week? As well as another sell opportunity for those in the know?
    Seems like Jay is in a tough place. No cut: market crashes. 1/4 cut: banks crash because they’ve been going up because they’ve expected 1/2. And if there’s 1/2 cut: yen carry trade crashes. Guess he’s in a panic as well..

    Reply
    • Remember when Hugh Downs – a solid dude – was reduced to voicing Depends (or what it Pampers?) commercials in the 1970s when he ran about the mainline media? Well, I was thinking a nice kind of humble pie to serve in 2025 would be former financial officials doing voiceovers for….

      Reply
  6. Did thems as got bin Laden get got themselves?
    In Wiki, see, “Extortion 17.”

    I think there is some case to be made that
    they got silenced. It’s not a nice story.

    As for ELF as the only means to comm with
    boomers, trust me; there is at least one other
    system / method currently deployed widely.

    Reply
      • To my limited knowledge, there are three VLF / ELF staions run by the Navy, and at least two other completely different systems / methods currently widely deployed.

        There may be — probably is / are — still others we ken not. I’ve heard speculation and wild rumors of a developed and fielded one… Neutrino. Yeah, I know. Impossible.

        Reply
        • Lualualei on West Oahu has two 1300 ft towers broadcasting on 24.5 KHz slow speed code for submarine coms. Ten Collins 50kw am transmitters multiplexed for 500kW. I’ve toured it.

        • Wouldn’t let me near the modulation stream incoming. Two towers used to split the power density. No directionality at 24.5kHz. Tower base tuning network was a Ball-variometer wound with a Litz wire cable the size of my thigh. This was early 80s. I worked with a retired Navy guy who was govt contractor at the site and had access, so he showed me around. Walked thru the transmitter room inside of a chain-link fence tunnel to keep away from HV buss bars all over the walls and ceiling. TEN Collins 50kW amps!! My teeth were buzzing with the keying.

        • Friend of mine wore headphones for the North Atlantic for 12 years. It was she who explained to me (in 1994), all the things civvies could do on the Internet, which would land her in the hoosegow, and DD’d out of the service. She could not tell me where she was stationed. I assumed it was Newfoundland or some place between Northern Maine and the NE extremity of coastal Canada, but never asked, even after she got out.

        • This could have been a reply to George, but the software limits nesting.

          AFAIK the Navy still has a VLF installation in Cutler, ME; this is Downeast, between Machias and Lubec/Eastport. Could be wrong, but I [mis]remember it to run at approximately 16 kHz. Must be quite the antenna farm!

  7. Re “ missile” or “quake” east of Bremerton – the epicenter is listed as deep in the rugged area around prime elk hunting grounds. My son is there now with archery buddies. All of them are long time first responders of various agencies and if anything wild is going to happen, you can bet they are in the thick of it. You know- these guys run into burning buildings and flying bullets. They come out of the woods Sunday so will update if anything occurred.
    Just a note, Thursday I had earthquake tireds on the low end of the scale. We are several hundred miles south west of the epicenter.
    Thinking of maintaining a sheet with the results and distances if I get the concept together!

    Reply
  8. George,
    China is in a property-collapse-driven severe deflationary spiral. While the Wilshire is within 1 percent of its 16 July 2024 peak and about 125% above its March 2000 low, the Shanghai composite is now within 2 percent of its March 2020 low which will likely be breached within the next two trading days.

    The Wilshire and other global bubble equity valuations, and crypto and commodity valuations will to a significant extent catch up with the Shanghai comp over the next 16 trading days.

    Over the next year (and years to come) the US service economy replete with its social programs, military and QE deficit spending will initiate another credit cycle. With the world holding so many dollars, and one US boomer having more destructive capability than the summation of that witnessed in WWII, the US will still be in a position of the least worse of all contenders for the next half century.

    Reply
    • Your lips to God’s ears, doc. I’m down a cheap used car worth on some way out of the money (now) puts for next March on the sip&pee. Not big bets, no big money. I can’t afford this kind of BP reading all the time…

      Reply
      • Fortunately, if the bet was long (and not leveraged), then you can only lose all of it. Personally, I prefer to
        invest (and live) with less drama and a regular heartbeat.

        Reply
  9. Yo G-Pops,

    we gotz MOAR my good man..moar DATA !

    hot dam Information, gotz to process that scheisse – quick like.

    Here ya go – latest and greatest regards Metformin and SLOWING Ure Brain Aging.

    ..I said WHOA ! Whoa brain Aging, WHOA!

    -https://www.theinteldrop.org/2024/09/14/the-brain-aged-more-slowly-in-monkeys-given-a-cheap-diabetes-drug/

    See one of the BC Nazi’s favorite words in that link/title ?

    C H E A P – lets hear it from the Kinks then cause Cheap is Cheap – https://youtu.be/MwJBtDOat_k?si=XlFqU3wv-pT4H4wm

    Reply
    • After reading this part…

      “The Mainstream Media has successfully deflected and muted the debate regarding the origins of COVID-19, and its creation in a Chinese biological warfare laboratory with financial assistance from the United States.”

      … I came across this at The NY Post.

      War or another global pandemic, Microsoft CEO Bill Gates is cautioning that, if the world manages to avoid the former, the latter is a very real possibility within the next 25 years.

      “A lot of unrest” in today’s age could spark a major war, he told CNBC’s “Make It.”

      If we avoid a big war … then, yes, there will be another pandemic, most likely in the next 25 years,” he continued.

      https://nypost.com/2024/09/15/us-news/bill-gates-forecasts-another-global-pandemic-likely-within-next-25-years-in-ominous-health-warning/

      Is he talking in code? Sending a message? 25 years, or 25 days?

      So if we have a big war, we don’t have to worry about another pandemic? Why? Because everybody is dead?

      Reply
      • “So if we have a big war, we don’t have to worry about another pandemic? Why? Because everybody is dead?”

        Naw, it’s because he’ll leave instructions for his lab bunnies to leave the flask on the shelf…

        Reply
  10. re: Future Matters
    feat: another Bric in the wall

    George,
    Before you sign off on a Lexus dotted line, an under construction ev auto assembly factory is coming together in Szeged, Hungary. The region had become a backwater since being on the frontlines of the 17th century Ottoman invasion. Here’s a link to a 24 Hu article from a few days ago. Chinese ev auto manufacturing collossus BYD is making progress on the Hungarian auto project Bric by Bric.
    https://24.hu/fn/gazdasag/2024/09/11/byd-kinai-elektromosautogyar-bank-of-china-szeged-tokebefizetes-veszteseg/

    According to Wikipedia, Berkshire Hathaway holds a minority but still not insubstantial share position in BYD. BYD also manufactures a lot of ev battery packs used by the Tesla China Gigafactory.

    Sorry to hear that the Ukraine war is dragging on. President Zelensky posted a photo op with former UK PM Boris on his Telegram channel yesterday. The PM was in Kyiv for the 20th annual Yalta European Strategy (YES). Its founder is a Ukrainian billionaire oligarch married to the only daughter of a former Ukrainian president understood to be a skilled navigator in matters of corruption. The conference founder’s US foreign agent representative was selected for but not accepted to the US security council under the Trump Administration.

    Reply
  11. 1982: CBS News report—featuring a 34-year-old Al Gore—

    Is fake.

    …And AI-generated.

    The “entire scientific community” was still deeply afraid Earth was cooling into an ice age, in 1982. Remember, all those magazine covers and articles in everything from the NYT to Popular Science were published in 1979, plus or minus a year.

    “The greenhouse effect” became an issue with “hairspray” (remember?) and the “expanding ozone layer” which came along in the late 1980s — NOT the early 1980s. Don’t even get me started on the villainization of carbon dioxide.

    I suggest, if one wants to actually know stuff, and not just accept whatever bullshit you’re fed by the lamestream or your insociable media feed, that you:

    Buy text and history books, and encyclopedias, which were published before about 1965, and use them to confirm or belie everything you see in the media or on the Internet. If you can’t remember shit, buy a month or two all-access subscription to Editor & Publisher and use a site-ripper like WinHTT to rip and archive newspapers “of record.” (You can do the same at the Wayback Machine, but selection is limited.) You would have to snag the NYT, WaPo, and LAT, but don’t forget to also snag Plain Dealer, Freep, Sun-Times, Tampa, San Antonio, Raleigh, and an assortment of foreign papers (a couple from London, DW, Warsaw / Minsk / Kiev, Hindustan, Sydney, Yonhap, Kyoto, Taipei, TASS, Xinhua, etc.)

    Newspapers stored in a text or document format are searchable. Newspapers that’re scans or microfilm/microfiche photos or prints are not.

    Reply

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