The Problem with Treasure-Hunting

Today we pencil out how much money might be made in the stock market decline of 1929.  Such a decline would begin tomorrow or as late as next Monday and would  continue to almost Christmas, as some of our models suggest, there is still a lot of “processor time” to be thinking about other topics as well.

With “time machines” going in background, I wanted to mention a few points about treasure-hunting today because both science as well as treasure-hunting can benefit greatly, I think from a new way of thinking that’s come into view.

We’ll get into that after we first go through some “pipe-dreams” about how much money might be made by someone who is willing to take a LOT of risk, should the replay of 1929 turn out to be enduring.

Knowing, of course, it will likely not be.  Still, though…

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George Ure
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24 thoughts on “The Problem with Treasure-Hunting”

  1. cheddar1..Ure…you have money to waste on treasure hunting?…see 7 years of the series Oak Island and get back to us…sheesh…..

    • It’s the thrill of the hunt. Like when you were young, chasing women.

      What would life be without the War Room on Oak Island. It is like searching for Bigfoot, the camera is always fuzzy.

    • I was going to comment on Oak Island, as well. Whatever came of that (mis)adventure? It was harder to follow than the Breaking Bad spinoffs…

      • I didn’t have any trouble following it… and the way they are going they will unravel the historic mystery..

  2. I was looking at Depression Era rates interest rates. There’s no comparison because the Depression Era $ was redeemable for something physical. We saw with GM today the legal contract doesn’t mean anything, everyone gets a trophy.

    The rolling blackouts are starting with PG&E. Bitcoin won’t be the answer.

    The treasure we need is what will be valuable on the other side.

    “The Depression

    In the initial stages of the great depression, begin¬ning in late 1929, interest rates declined. From a level of 6.25 per cent in the fall of 1929, commercial paper yields dropped to 2.00 per cent in the summer and early fall of 1931. Likewise, highest grade corporate bond yields decreased, from 4.80 per cent to 4.36 percent.

    Despite the continued contraction in economic ac¬tivity, interest rates rose markedly in late 1931. For­eign crises and devaluations, the large number of bank failures, and distrust of the dollar brought a large gold outflow. The Federal Reserve met this crisis in the traditional fashion by taking actions designed to raise interest rates. Short-term rates doubled to a level of 4.00 per cent, and long-term rates went up about 1 percentage point to 5.32 per cent.

    Except for another sharp jump for a brief period around the “bank holiday” in early 1933, interest rates generally worked lower until early 1937. The supply of short-term Government securities and other high-grade money market paper was severely limited. By early 1937 prime commercial paper was yielding only 0.75 per cent, and highest-grade corporate bonds were bringing 3.10 per cent. During the first quarter of1937 interest rates jumped higher briefly but declined late in the year (during the 1937-38 recession) and continued at an unusually low level until early 1941. “

    Page 5

    10-Year High Quality Market (HQM) Corporate Bond Spot Rate (HQMCB10YR)

  3. With the stock market down big one day, up big the next day based on Trade Wars, Inverted Yield Curves, The Fed, Impeachment, etc, , shows me the bull market is still intact. Investors are still willing to put money in stocks. Also, cash & bonds pays nothing. When the crash is due to happen Wall Street will be jubilant all the while dumping their holdings on you to take your savings for themselves.

  4. Uncle G I believe U R looking at this thing all wrong.

    Look around U, listen to what the talking heads R saying, listen to what the “protected class” is saying..”trump is a traitor, I am an blooded American Indian/lost my job due to being too pregnant, a CIA whistle blower filed report..yeah yeah they luv working w/whistle blowers.., NOT QE4 – Left is Right and Up is Down.

    U just need to invert everything – charts, treasure maps, or try standing on your head while reading the charts – perhaps then U might recognize the BEAR!

    As near as I can tell the Bear is here & it is HANGRY..

    • Crash I’ve been wildly short since last Friday’s high – but I don’t talk about my personal trades because someone might misconstrue that as advice.

  5. Two things…First, the PGE scam. I am not sure why there isn’t more outrage about PGE shutting down grids.

    In order to prevent future lawsuits, they are creating life and death situations by cutting power to over 800,000 customers? There are thousands that are on home life support systems that don’t have access or the money to get back up power generation systems. Thousands of mom and pop restaurants will have spoiled food, not to mention the access to the internet, emergency call centers and more. Want to bet that opportunistic numb skull criminal wannabes will be looting during the 3-5 days the power is turned off?

    And for what? They are costing their own customers millions in lost revenue so they can save millions of lost revenue if a fire occurs. It’s the 1% taking advantage of the 99%.

    Here’s a solution PGE. Clear cut your electric easements like you are supposed to do to prevent the fires. Secure your electric poles so they don’t blow down. Don’t punish us for your own maintenance negligence. If there was ever a time for solar power companies to knock on doors for business …this would be the time…especially with the incredible amounts of sun we get…

    Second…Treasure hunting is a metaphor for just about all business isn’t it? Here in the Silicon Valley, the treasure is algorithms for everything AI. Elsewhere, it’s well… also algorithms…for Ag, finance, manufacturing, logistics, sociology, psychology, physics, etc. all for the betterment of more productive business cycles and eventually, profit.

    • Further to your algorithm treasure hunting analogy: They don’t call it “data mining” for nothing.

    • get your Cali. gov to pass a bill to take over the power companies and model it after Nebr’s Public Power model.
      your choice, get it done,,,it works and we the people need to control our utilities instead of the puppet masters, when they control your elec, you are their slave
      WAKE UP
      better yet Tesla had the ability to make the dream elec car that did not need batteries
      Nickolas not Elon
      Imagine a home elec power unit that requires no source or fuel than the energy that surrounds us every day, better than a chicken in every pot
      FREEDOM from the corporate masters(slave owners)we do not see the chains than bind us

    • According to a video I watched yesterday, CA has severed its affiliations with HAM operators and has taken down all repeaters, so ham operators will no longer be able to help during emergencies. IF this is true (I couldn’t find verifications), it becomes even more obvious that the PTB are trying to rid CA of people. The recent suspicious “forest” fires that burned everything but the trees, along with the impossible requirements that prevented people from rebuilding, should have been the first wake-up call. The alleged monkey business with HAMs would be a 2nd wake-up call, and now PGE’s outright death dealings are certainly another call. Something other than dead marine life on shores is rotten in CA!

    • If you think multi-day black-outs only affect mom-and-pop operations, think again. The idea that national chains have off-grid power power systems in place ready to go doesn’t fit in with my hurricane evacuation experiences. Banks, grocery stores and gas stations all go down. The same goes for community comms, water and sewage. Best to go back and read some of the posts you ignored regarding EMP scenarios. If 800,000 PGE customers are really having their power cut for a week, you can expect a refugee crisis to develop very quickly.

  6. Hi George, I have 20 boxes of FluidShield PFR95 N95 Particulate Filter Mask, do you think that works or need to upgrade to N100 masks?

      • P100’s are good for sitting on a mower, but they restrict your air for aerobics. 95’s are safer when you are on your feet, but if you are having trouble catching your breath with any filter, stop, take it off, and take a break.

  7. The problem with treasure hunting is who knows what’s truth Vs legend?

    Anyone remember the Nazi gold train from 2016? Then there’s the Hungarian Gold Train, the Confederate States gold train….

    Oak Island. My understanding is explorers can’t get deeper than 134′ on that island.

    South Africa has mines that go more than 2 miles deep.
    Appalachia has strip mined entire mountains away.
    Take a look at the Bingham Canyon Mine, Utah;center,top&resize=980:*

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