While the war in Ukraine continues to drag on – bringing a massive drain on Europe – which has hurt the Euro and made the Dollar appear stronger than reality dictates – we are faced this morning with the arrival in weeks of a terrible set of financial circumstances that will become another “feeder war” into the Global War III in the 2024-2026 timeframe.
There is a fairly complex set-up process underway now, so carefully watching press reports for timing clues will make sense.
Bartender? Line ’em up!
- The report this morning that a Khamenei adviser says Tehran ‘capable of building nuclear bomb’ has become a “first strike” problem in the Middle East. As we reported earlier, one likely key agenda item of the Biden Middle East soiree was working the Saudi’s to keep the Sunni Muslims out of defending Tehran when time comes. We suggested (with no hard evidence in hand) that the Biden DoJ going after the PGA which would favor the LIV golf series (Saudi owned) was likely one of the gimme’s in the foreplay.
- Leading into this is the Federal Reserve meeting which will announce a rate hike a week from this Wednesday. Not only has the Biden administration been expanding federal labor powers by putting taxpayers on the hook to bail out massive pension fund debt, but they also have lit the 60-day fuse on a national rail strike which (inconveniently) arrives before the mid-term elections. The only real debate on the Fed rate hike next week is “How Big?”
- Ukraine has become somewhat quieted by Corporate Shill Media (CSM/MSM). While Russia targets Ukraine’s missiles as Western-supplied weapons bite, observers think the next Russian target s may be Mykolaiv and then Odessa further southwest. With this, Ukraine would become land locked. Watch this map on Twitter for ground combat updates.
- Which leaves two problems in Asia to ponder. On the island of Formosa, things have lightened a bit since Uncle is looking firm: US North Korea Nuclear Talks: Any North Korea Nucler Test Would Be “Very Provocative”, US Warns. Which then leaves only the North Koreans holding their threats on the South which we depend on for much in the way of consumer goods, especially anything with chips aboard. Big worry in the South is whether (like Iran) a nuclear test could be nearing.
Useful Nuke Notes
No doubt in our mind, the story in the JPost about how Iran hasn’t made a decision yet whether to upgrade 60 percent uranium to the crucial 90 percent level is poppycock. Of course, they have! You don’t spend years designing and dreaming of a gun, pouring many lives into its development, and just when it’s completed you forget to load it, do you? Of course not!
As my consigliere reminded in an overnight client email:
“Iran – Now has ENOUGH enriched uranium to make a bomb! … right on the schedule I projected
Well talk about dead on timing from my project to you guys back 2 or 3 months ago. Iran hit the target date of having enough material to make a bomb to the week!
The second half of the projection is that once they had enough material it takes about 2 weeks to actually construct a bomb, per the nuclear research group I cited.
Now Biden is in a Pickle after his comments this past week about Iran and a bomb. Are we NOW GOING TO WAR WITH IRAN?
Remember I also laid out that the most likely timing for a US/Israeli attack opened the last week in July and continued through the end of the first week of September (call it Labor Dayish)
Looking to be an “exciting” remainder of the year.
Iran …. they now can make a bomb so what are the US and Israel going to do? Start a WAR?
China … still prepping for that October invasion, which I put the odds of happening at 70% now shading to 85% as the failure of US sanctions on Russia are becoming apparent. If the US and Iran start a tangle, I will move those odds up to 85% to 95%.
Ukraine … self-created MESS for the US where the US wants Russia bogged down in a multiyear War, to be fought to the last Ukrainian, but which is in reality resulting in depleting US and NATO War materials such that without airpower NATO is hosed in a general non-nuclear European War.
I do believe Russia CAN neutralize US airpower withOUT going nuclear – we have NO defenses at our airbases that can defend against the Russian low flying missiles of all types with any sort of success rate since the Army hasn’t wanted to buy such defensive systems even though we developed one (NOT sexy enough for the Pentagon planners). The ONLY system we actually bought and installed is installed around Washington DC but we don’t even have a second one in storage that we could put somewhere in Europe. (which could only protect ONE base to begin with).
FWIW Iron Dome doesn’t work since it is geared towards Ballistic Missiles and the Russian missiles are NOT Ballistic Missiles but low-level flying missiles. The Patriot Missile System is also near worthless since it’s radars only cover 120 degrees, we don’t have many Patriot Missiles to actually be able to use, AND again it is near worthless for missiles that are coming in at only a hundred to two hundred feet off the surface).
This All Foretells Market Action
The phrase-that-pays in here will likely be a conjugate of both “pump and dump” and “strong hands sell to weak at a major Top.” Many Investors Are Fleeing the Stock Market, but Some Are Doubling Down: ‘If I Lose $15,000, I’m Not Going to Die’ – WSJ. No, (I didn’t say that, but might as well have.)
A third factor in this is the impact of FOREX trading. With the drop in the dollar v. the Euro today, from 0.990 down to 0.9836 there is a case for a currency driven rally in the US that may account for a rally of 6-10ths of one percent.
However, selling ahead of the Fed meeting next week plus beginning to look ahead to the Israeli attack on Iran could account for even more “selling at a top.”
Seasonality figures into this, as well. Summer rally highs are usually put in from the middle of August to the middle of September. Then down in the fall is the common pattern.
This is NOT investment advice, because a short, violent rally is possible. But we’ll be watching how Bitcoin fares for clues, as well. It was into the mid $22,000’s today early. ($22,245)
As this chart shows, we have a Wave 1 down from Nov. 21. Then a March Rally followed by more down.
The problem child is that the two overlaid trading boxes on the right tell us:
- It is POSSIBLE that a Wave up is possible now, since what we count at 3-down MIGHT be complete. In which case, we are likely in a complex 4 which could be followed with a Wave 5 down in September-November.
- OR – we get more of the fake-out (strong hands selling to weak) in the early rally this morning which would begin to fade around the European close late this morning (central time).
See why trading can be a bit difficult? The trading indicators I personally use offer an even stranger outlook: The on-balance volume popped up more than a billion worth going into the Friday close- which would be consistent with running shorts, but which also fits the strong-hands-to-weak profile. The differential stochastics were split and the MACD could go either way.
Day trading is a complicated business, understand. And sometimes – when taking a loss to reduce risk – we’re reminded not too many people make a reliable living in casinos, either.
Dollar turning up today might keep us on the short side a while longer. We’ll just have to see how it plays.
Gun Lies in Media/Media Matters
Once again, we see the Corporate Shills Media running the Marxist agenda of gun-grabbing. Lying by Omission.
Not because you can’t find the story of the Greenwood Mall shooting if you know to go look for it, but what SHOULD be front page is NOT because Media continues to screw the pooch at the command of anti-constitutional liberals.
Like I say, you CAN find stories like At least three people dead after shooting at Indiana shopping mall.
But our bet is the story will disappear in a day or less because the perp was shot and killed by a lawfully carrying gun owner.
While it’s missing already from Drudge, it may be found in overseas press accounts such as Three killed in fresh US mall shooting (manilastandard.net).
Inside the Northeast leftwing media bubble? Even the NY Post featured Uvalde shooting coverage all over the place with only a small front-page link (small photo) to At least 3 dead in shooting at Indiana shopping mall, gunman stopped by Good Samaritan with handgun (nypost.com).
Must be a bitch, you know? Writing “Good Samaritan” in a gun story in brainwashed New York.
Except for the Post’s John Crudele’s financial stories – and Miranda Devine lately on Hunter and The only New Yorker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez fights for is herself (nypost.com – we wonder if solid reporting has been driven out of Gotham.
I mean, in terms of actually meaning something to our future, is Page Six glitterati really more important than adjudication of election fraud? Well, I guess it must be. But, that’s how revenue works with advertising supported media, I guess.
Missing from the Post front page – and the New York Slimes – was an equally important “core values” story: John Durham requesting 30 subpoenas a serious move, Kash Patel says | Washington Examiner.
Can we all just have a kumbaya moment and focus on what matters?
Oh, I dunno – food, maybe? Two-weeks increase in food billionaires’ wealth enough to fully fund East Africa hunger crisis response – Politics.co.uk. It will never happen, of course. Nice thought, though. Dream on.
Pardon me, sir. Is that Grey Poo-poo? Sacrebleu! A shortage of Dijon mustard sparks a very French food crisis (yahoo.com).
The “Let’s see how many people we can put in an unsustainable urban area” department: ‘Water police’ patrol drought-hit Los Angeles streets (phys.org)/
Not just in the desert southwest, either: Connecticut farmers fear what’s ahead as state’s drought worsens: ‘Everything is crying for water’ (stamfordadvocate.com). (Hmm. Could nature not give a shit about NE liberals, either?)
Want a long – stupid – vacation? This nuclear-powered ‘flying cruise ship’ could stay airborne for years at a time, carrying 5,000 guests – Study Finds
Around the Ranch
Best laid plans were blown up Sunday.
Nearly had the perfect “day off” of nothing but relative enjoyment. But, when all was said and done, the plan blew up but the new “long range” phone system was installed on the office line. Despite claims of 2,300 feet, it only works at the mailbox (325 feet) if you stand a certain way.
Hot as the blazes lately – been turning on the misters outside for the cats around 11 AM. You can find kits on Amazon that will let you put up to 9, or so, misters on a system. If you build it with just two or three, it’s enough to cool a modest area and not squander the water bill.
If your pets aren’t smart enough to lay down just at the edge of the mist, a pet psychiatrist may be in your future. Zeus seems to have water on the brain, but the new cat (of still-undetermined sex) Sam (*uel or mantha) hasn’t.
Write when you get rich,