The Blow-off: How High is Up?

It’s a math problem…although it sure looks like a  meth problem, as the US markets continue to “put on the beans” as we are living through the financial analogy to “Going to Mars.”  The Moon-shot point was passed a long time ago.

Let’s begin with the breaking financial developments:

The first is Housing Starts just out from the Census Bureau:

The next “bigly” to come along will be industrial production and utilization from the Fed.

Speak of the Fed

The “Mars Shot” bankster class just keeps piling on the made-up money:  As of the H.6 Money Stocks report out last night we see money creation is still bumping up against that 10% per annum rate.

As you can read, over the past year. money was being “made-up” at a 6.6 percent rate which MIGHT have been justifiable.  But this recent binge printing???  Justifiable  moneycide?

Or, perhaps it’s nothing more than  Mugabenomics sprung to life, since there is an uncomfortable parallel to be found amongst the Zimbabwe Trillionaire class, and those people during the Weimar Republic who bought groceries with wheelbarrows loaded with paper.  Marks and Marx, anyone?

After Housing, Dow futures up 90,, and the Fed only put in $52,.640 -billion via the repo resuccitastor… BTC’s $8,827 this morning.

Big Picture – Important

On an extraordinarily serious [for us] side note, the Ben Bernanke call last year (Lower for Longer! L4L) still makes sense to us, because the U.S. is undergoing what will – in the longer-term – be a potential nation-saving write-down of old, higher-priced debt instruments like the 30-year Treasury.

The mechanics of this might look like this on a high-precision cocktail napkin, which we keep handy for such discussions:

You’ll notice that there’s an offset between the present market interest rate and the aggregated average interest rate of 30-year paper.  Dr. Bernanke’s call was that if you don’t really “wash out a bit along the bottoming process” (to paraphrase) then you don’t get the benefit of the restructured lower rate accumulated debt in the future.  IoW there’s no “crossing.”

So, during the time that rates are low (and coming down) the longer-term rates has a kind of “over-hang” and it seems like inflation will be coming along to end us all.  but,. what Dr. Bernanke knows (though the public doesn’t grok this stuff easily) is that when we finally wash out all the deflation (which will take a while!) and growth begins to recover, then the relationship of the long-term (like the 30-year) will lag (and by what could be a good amount) and that, goes the thinking, will recover or fix the present soaring over-head with the growing national debt.  Which as of this morning is?  Well, lots…

But you get the idea:  Looks like when rates are coming down, this restructure of U.S. long-term debt is painful, but when inflation (driving by wage demands which are already in the pipeline, and being promoted by some of the more socialist city councils in big tech cities, that will press prevailing prices up, but the restructured debt will then tend to underwhelm, rather than overwhelm.  It’s just that most reporters don’t have an economic brain in their heads so they miss the coming underwhelming part.

Oddly – and this will piss off the conservatives – the drive by the local Digital Mob Rule – Online Socialists actually sets the ground for the wage-driven inflation to come and the nascent move in precious metals and energies is very much analogous to what would be expected at the start of a macro Sixth Kondratieff long wave.

OK, which gets us to a difficult question (and now we get into the really deep discussion of what’s ahead.  Well, it depends who you ask.

Look, if you’re really going to “see future right” you need to spend some time reading something more useful than the bullsh*t social media postings of the mee-tew;’s.  You might get something useful from Leo Nefiodow’s grand book The Sixth Kondratieff: A New Long Wave in the Global Economy, for example.  Doesn’t cost  much more than a first-run streaming flick, either, and definitely more useful!.

Let me show you what’s going on (even if you’re not a Peoplenomics subscriber –  or haven’t read Nefiodow’s book – think of this as a freebie, right?)

The Nefiodow’s book exactly lays out the roots of our Kondratieff reality.  That is, successive technological waves that each bring a major upturn, and then a major decline (read: Depression) and it’s worth every second of reading (depending on brain size or the amount of “RAM between your ears…”

The one disagreement -critique is more like it – is that since I’ve been brain-deep in everything computery since we did the first wireless data broadcast to the home market back in 1983 – it’s that Nefiodow’s labeling of the 6th Wave with a questionmark, is not how we’d call it.

Instead, “Information technologies” being a class label for computery-stuff is (in Ure’s view) too general.  Being immersed in it so deeply, I see a succession of over-lapping breakthroughs beginning with the first chips (processor revolution) followed by the A.X25 protocol and the start of the (network revolution) and then the (workflow/ERP revolution).   Far as I can figure it, there were no analogs in “overlap of buggy whip technology” for example.  “This time is different” is really true, at least in part.

What I think is coming is “AIR” – A.I./Robotics.  Which is why the headlong rush to get our readers up to speed on all of our blooming 3D printer and CNC equipment our here which is in our local build cue.  And why it’s going onto the new (thanks, Peoplenomics readers!) website:

Following this?  OK, regardless of this minor labeling nit with Nefiodow, the HUGE lesson from my friend Cesare Marchetti (inventor of successive S-curves and much more) is to understand that during the periods of overlap between K-waves, you get this HUMUNGOUS period of prosperity because everyone who is working is already into the mix and more jobs exist than workers to fill.

Which gets us to the  blue lines and the yellow box I’ve added to expand on the point of Kondratieff waves in the first place.  As you can see in the Nefiodow’s work, the petrochemical industry was coming along in the 1870’s, but there was not an especially big ramp on the tech of that, the real growth would be more a “diffusion of innovation” (after Everett Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations, 5th Edition) but read the Nefiodow’s book first, OK?).

In the end, a technology can come in a single big wave (like trailroads) OR the wave may be segmenting as successive tech overlaps now arise as the world becomes a more complicated place.  Which is where my bets run.

Enough of this – and tomorrow we will take a “day off” from the deep econ thinking on the subscriber site and deep with some “deep psychology” research.  Like we don’t have enough to keep the brain engaged, right?

The hard-core liberalista sock-puppets of the Global Socialists don’t have a clue.  As revealed in UN Warns Of Slowbalisation As Economic Growth In 2019 Plunged To Lowest In Decade.  They need to get a f*cking grip and read more.  Yin and Yang hold office at the same time.  Except Yang’s a sub right now and Yin’s the dom.  So as an add-on for the stoops, toss in a bit of Chinese cultural heritage and save a place for the Favorite Uncle at the  Chinese dinner table. Which is all a rew-write of Uncle Sam at the Thanksgiving table, which most people have no clue about.

Ecclesiates: “No New Think under the Sun,” or what?

In the Shorts

Compared to this much more useful, longer-term view, the daily news flow doesn’t even “move the meter” in terms of what’s really important in Life Still, a few things look useful (after last week’s Peoplenomics on personally useful information – and toss the rest…)

Useless news includes a report that Parnas says Trump tried to fire Yovanovitch “at least four” times.  Ex-squeeze me?  Don’t ambassadors serve at the pleasure or leisure of the President?

Put another Log on your cereal since Human ancestors may have eaten hard plant tissues without damaging teeth.

We suspect the “can’t read the Constitution” left in Virginia is moving toward Russian-style government arms seizure’s, as we noticed that three Alleged white supremacists arrested ahead of Virginia gun rights rally.  We don’t support neo-Nazi hate, on the one hand, but we’re deeply troubled when the Surveillance State usrupts the right to privacy.  Dept. of Pre-Crime is here, if you hadn’t noticed.  Not sure where this all comes out in the wash.

Having scrambled my brain, off to scramble to eggs, next…

Write when you get rich,

author avatar
George Ure
Amazon Author Page: UrbanSurvival Bio:

29 thoughts on “The Blow-off: How High is Up?”

  1. betcha a pastrami sandwich everything finishes red .. tell you after the day why. even gold .. overpriced by a lot

    • Only the Russell 2000 was red on the close. Gold, silver bitcoin…up, up, up. NASDAQ started green, briefly in the red in the morning, but ended up green. I prefer using Pastrami instead of Corn Beef when making a Ruben Sandwich. Both would be considered red meat.

      • At some point it won’t matter how much they are injecting – a commission or fee taker will always tell you it’s a perfect time to be all in – the real problem is the collusion that exists in the rating agency’s and the BBB corporate sector where many smarter than I think 30% of which should be rated junk – when the earnings finally force there hand it won’t matter how much they print …..

  2. My thought is government doesn’t always lie.

    Before censorship scrubs, there was a video showing George W. Bush declaring:

    “I’ve abandoned free-market principles to save the free-market system.”

    The abandoning worked. Hail, Bush!

  3. George

    Too bad we can’t label the Sixth Kondratieff wave Industrial Space. If the human species had any brains and got off the I Want To Be The Big Monkey road to doom we would be getting ourselves into Space big time.

    All aspects of the space environment need to be exploited for the benefit of mankind. We are not doing that! We are just crawling along in first gear when we should be in overdrive.

    As an example we have heard a lot of hype about the new SLS rocket system lately. The Big Rollout in New Orleans of the Core segment of that rocket and other news of an attempt to fly a new crew capsule up to the Space Station that failed. Big deal, we should be doing ten times that effort.

    I’m not impressed by the SLS. It’s not a fast turn around system like the recoverable SpaceX Falcon 9 system. It could be with some imaginative engineering. For instance, the solid rocket boosters will be recovered like the Space Shuttle system. But the Core Main engines get trashed. Why not recover them? It’s doable! So that tells me that the SLS is a slow boat to nowhere. What happens when all the Main engines get used up? Build more? How long will that take and at what cost?

    We could be doing so mush better and that would cause major economic improvement for America!

    Don’t tell me I have no knowledge of the rocket business and should not comment about it. I have almost 30 years of direct work experience with Space hardware. To me it seems that we are being held back on purpose!

    It looks like were not going to surf the Sixth Kondratieff wave!

    • I’m on your side Mike… the kids at NASA totally rock.. not to even mention the advancements that have been achieved because of the space race..

  4. “three Alleged white supremacists arrested ahead of Virginia gun rights rally.”

    As it said – “alleged”. They can call people whatever they want when they’re stomping their jack-boots on everyone’s rights. It’s all about perception and the audience they’re pandering to. Remember, the goal is Power, nothing else but.

    • THE 3 were arrested by the FBI….that is all you need to know….corrupt FBI…and IF the 90% are good where the F are they for the past 30 years…ruby ridge, waco… 911…las vegas…ALL school shootings.etc……FBI….has ‘caught’ more terrorist then the TSA….only problem is ..those that the FBI ‘s arrested were working for them on ‘sting’ ops…paid informants that the FBI gave explosives etc to..and then they were arrested……Wray is corrupt and still in charge…as AG BARR covers for him the fbi and the doj….none are working for this country….imo


    “an uncomfortable parallel to be found amongst the Zimbabwe Trillionaire class, and those people during the Weimar Republic who bought groceries with wheelbarrows loaded with paper. ”

    What I see coming… totally scares the hell out of me.. I am always amazed that people dont see it.. or if they do.. are they just ignoring the situation.

    On stews site he has a post.. ( buy the book to get access) great site full of well thought out interpretation of predictions of old..) the post Is on the economic collapse and ww3..

    For what stew is asking it’s a bargain to buy the book..

    My fear is .. how does someone at the bottom survive such a cataclysmic collapse.. then endure hell.. of a war on our own soil..granted we read the shuffle to the left shimmy to the right and all is well.. but like the super bowl.. we are in our chairs on the sidelines not experiencing it first hand.when this happens it will be up front in our faces real life experiences.
    Then look at those comparison charts. How far is down. The further you fall the more you can be hurt.
    I have no choice but to follow the crowds. I fear for the affluent. History has an ugly image towards that. Will Nancy be tipping shots while DC burns.

    I dont think that the feds at this point can do much less than dump water on the table to keep the noodle from falling apart..a ten million dollar sandwiches is definitely a possibility at this time…if.. nostradamus predictions dont come true.

  6. Great column today. Very useful. Just ordered Leo’s book. On your last section about human ancestors may have eaten hard plant tissues without damaging teeth. I mentioned this yesterday, but you must watch the Netflix documentary GameChangers. They actually cover that topic and give some scientific and anthropological reasons that counter the paleo diet fanatics.

  7. I wonder what percentage of the Virginia rally participants are CI’s? 90%? The remaining 10% are probably on parole, making them easy targets for show arrests. Sounds like staged brown shirt political theater.

  8. George,
    Regarding your “Hardcore liberalista -sock puppets of the Global Socialists don’t have a clue,” observation.
    As long as A.I. is being developed and controlled by the Silicon Cartel through the likes of the Bezos’ and Zuckerburgs and Soros’ along with their future spawn, and their relatively unknown agendas and highly questionable tactics they use in capitalizing and implementing their social justice and political programs, the U.S. will continue to march (run?) toward a Socialist society. The common sense and experience of life and even world wars will continue to be eroded, ignored or eliminated as to what works or doesn’t work on a societal scale. Socialism never worked in the first place but the U.S. young are not being taught or allowed to see how it works in practice.
    With the advance of the Silicon Cartels, and their powerful algorithms, young people in their public schools and the crappy ‘public education’ it now yields, hardly stand a chance to somehow emerge as successful members of a cohesive society. Things will get rougher in our near future as the gap between the haves and the have nots grows. The need for more and bigger manipulations will increase in order to force socialism onto us.
    They are the Morelocks; we are the Eloi…

    • Hmm what did you expect as we went from a manufacturing economy to a service economy,where producing parts that sold and made money and profit to flipping burgers,cleaning motel rooms or any other low paid part time jobs,I was reading where employment has never got back up to the 2008 figure’s, and was just reading where transportation has collasped down to the 2008 level or below, which is no surprise as some 630 trucking companies went under last year and 2 more so far this year.

      When CEO’S are fired for not doing their job, walk off with over $60 million not counting severance pay,the CEO of WeWork walked off with over a billion when he was shown the door we don’t hear much about that, but if some social program comes up we hear a whole lot about that and that’s why we are in a decline.A parasitic type capitalism always ends up killing it host, but a capitalistic system blended with yikes socialism will and does work.People should have seen it coming when Reagan got elected, broke the unions started shipping jobs out of America,created off-shore accounts so they could park their tax free profits,pay the top 10% ever increasing endless gob’s of money while the 90% was headed down the other way.Now how do you feel sorry for people that cut their own throat because of some political party and its idealogy and retoric,that their party was choosen by the almighty to lead the unwashed into utopia,I don’t they deserve what’s coming.!!!

      • More jobs than people? More like more jobs that don’t pay enough to take. Seems to me all this wealth that’s going to drive a recovery is just the old trickle down that never materialized just that warm yellow liquid running down your back. As long as stock buybacks exist there won’t be any capital improvement – just rich execs. This isn’t about saving the economy it’s about a move that JP Morgan made that affected their repo desk and forced the Fed to rescue the counterparties which is why your hearing this nonsense about direct lines to hedge funds – highlighted by a very good article in Zerohedge. Ultimately it was done because Morgan owns a ton of long dated securities that they expected to be bought by the Fed under QE5 – they went with bills and this will force the ultimate purchase of the long stuff. There’s much much more but it makes my head spin –

      • I think you are absolutely right Blue…. we made the transition from a manufacturing country to a service oriented consumption country.. sure we have factories.. but the parts we use to assemble are all made someplace else..the high paying jobs seem to be sent overseas or given to someone that isn’t an american citizen.

        “more jobs that don’t pay enough to take. Seems to me all this wealth that’s going to drive a recovery is just the old trickle down that never materialized just that warm yellow liquid running down your back”

        Well Clawsey.. at least your feeling the warm yellow liquid roll down your lower back.. for the vast majority of us it feels more like a quick splat of goo after they have gotten finished with us LOL…

  9. “In the end, a technology can come in a single big wave (like trailroads) OR the wave may be segmenting as successive tech overlaps now arise as the world becomes a more complicated place. Which is where my bets run.”

    It would help to have a (1-5) listing of present day most disruptive technologies that rule, because much of history is just that, good to know but useless to monetize as we all have learned by now, IMHO.

    • 1. Cloud-based Microsoft products
      2. Google products
      3. Anything “cyber”
      4. One-button TV remote controls
      5. Any process that produces 180+ proof alcohol

      Number 5 might be a cure. Not sure yet… If it is, replace No. 5 with Internet of Things

      • Close, and thank you! Number 5 might be an unrecognized cure for high blood pressure, IMHO. Testing my hypothesis for more than 5 years I conclude that there might be some benefit for some kind of folks that stay within limits. ;-)

  10. From Amazon, sounds interesting, especially modern growth theory.

    “The sixth Kondratieff cycle has begun with the turn of this century. As the analyses in this book show, health care will be the driving force of this new Kondratieff cycle. However, health is not just seen in a physical, but also in a holistic sense, encompassing the physical, psychological, mental, psycho-mental, social, ecological and spiritual aspects. Why are health expenditures that were previously considered a mere cost factor going to assume the role of a growth locomotive in the future? We need to recall the findings of modern growth theory here: the most important source for economic growth in developed countries is productivity advancements. The analyses in this book show that a new understanding of health is indispensable to improve productivity on all levels of the economy and society. Thanks to this new understanding, health will become a strategic weapon for the next decades.”

  11. no worries .. think we are amateurs eh !! time to finish it off .. scum robots and fools .. time for some blowout cheap call options out of the money with time on so much non profitable companies and greedmarkets aka dow , nas , sp .. and our garbage down under the evil 200 !! but keep all shorts .. ok .. we reading the comics now or watching TV. your call do what you like

  12. @ George

    Could you look at why a majority of Computational Future is displaying CNN news….CNN should be banned from your site….as their reports and reporters are anti american…imo

      • A second thought…cbs,bbc,nyt,cnn…make up about 90% of news articles…only worth while is zero hedge….especially for your site….just a thought

        and thanks for your considerations with the ‘punch list’

  13. The fed. Funny bunch of clowns soon out of business. Repo repo repo . Print print print. No gold or then again even if they did there wouldnt be enough to cover a. Hamburger. So own garbage in non profit charity called stock and silent partner to insolvent banks. You reckon this scam goes on forever. Sure

  14. Shorts will get destroyed before anything crashes. We’re in a mania. Short sellers will not be able to weather the storm. Stocks go to ridiculous heights then double.

  15. The Fed is knowingly blowing an unsustainable bubble. They aren’t stupid. They know we’ve past the point of no return. The question is why would they do this? I believe Fed Chair Powell hates Trump with a passion for all of the insults Trump threw at him over the past few years. What better way to screw Trump than to inflate a bubble then crash the markets during the election year?

  16. Looks to me that the Fed is going to print enough money to pay out all shortcomings in hedge funds and pension funds et al, then reset the economy and bread will be .10 cents again.

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