Super Bowl: Did the Fed Just Pick the Patriots?

Football in a sec.  Jobs Out: Trump Bump Toast:

We’ve been thinking things were headed this way for several weeks, but here’s the data hot off the BLS website:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 304,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in several industries, including leisure and hospitality, construction, health care, and transportation and warehousing.

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.0 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.5 million, edged up in January. The impact of the partial federal government shutdown contributed to the uptick in these measures. Among the unemployed, the number who reported being on temporary layoff increased by 175,000. This figure includes furloughed federal employees who were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff under the definitions used in the household survey.

Our quickie analysis:

1. Was there a war I missed, or something?  The civilian population used was down 649,000.  What there a Rapture, or something?

2. With the total number employed down 251-thousand it’s hard to see how stocks will be able to make any plans that will boost earnings, except (gulp!) by beginning to lay people off, which we expect to begin dropping out of headlines in coming weeks.

Skip the press release lingo – go to the data!

See?  251-thousand fewer working.

Toss in that in the annual confessional, the CES Birth Death model dropped 2.9 plus million jobs and yessir, this ‘un juss sucks.

With the Dow +75, why is it we wonder if the Plunge Team is out and about?  S&P futures were up only 4 and the techs were down almost 20…

I like to think in terms of “paint the tape” on days like this.,..broadermeasures may be more realistic than narrow measures…

Now, Let’s Talk Football

There was a dandy article overnight about how “Stock-market bulls want Los Angeles Rams to beat the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Unfortunately, to us it appears the Federal Reserve has just called New England.

How do I figure that?

Pay attention:  When the Federal Reserve wouldn’t mind the market going up, they crank up the money creation rate in the very short-term data.  When they think the markets are about right, money creation goes back to somewhere around neutral.

BUT, when the market is looking manically bullish, they take away some of the punch bowls by dialing back the ease with which money is available.  Slow money creation and guess what?  Rates firm up a bit, cost of borrowing for the Big Players go up, which tends to tamp-down some of the speculation.

Now, for the purpose of trying to “eyeball” how all this works, we don’t need to “call in the chain gang to measure.”  Nope.  All we need to do is to take a stab at where would “place the ball” if the Fed was totally neutral.

Think of it this way:  Let’s say the real inflation rate is running about 3%.  That’s how much the purchasing power of the dollar is being watered down in order to make the Federal Debt numbers work, pay bond holders, and so forth.

But, the Fed also needs to put something down for real growth.  While the government shutdown will have some impact, a sense is that real growth will come in around 2-percent.

Now add ’em up:  About 5 percent, though mere mortals like you (and maybe me, but I’m working on that, lol) will never have access to the kind of computational horsepower the Fed does.  This is a SWAG (simple wild-ass-guess.)

Now we go to the latest data on money creation and what’s a-slosh if that’s a word.

In the period ending November 30, or what the Fed called “to December 2019” the rate of M1 (cash and equivalents) was going up 5.7 percent annualized when you look at the three month window.  M2 was going up 6 percent.

As you then move on to the Table 2 Data in the H.6 Money Stocks report, you will see there has been a financial “mood shift” going on.  For the 3-months ending January 22, 2019, the M1 creation rate was down to 4.1 percent (annualized off the 3 month rate) and the M2 was back to 5.0 percent.

Does this mean the Fed has, in effect, supposed that a New England win is in the cards?

We think so.  In fact, we can also see it in some of our charts which we will roll with in tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report for subscribers.

Does that mean it will happen, as this data suggests?

No:  The Fed is as bad at “predicting Super Bowl” outcomes by looking at their Money Stocks reports, as they are at maintaining the purchasing power of the US dollar.  Which, in case you didn’t know, buys only 4-cents on the dollar compared to what it did in 1913.

Most people simply can’t understand that “Prices going up” is simply the other side of “Money’s buying power” is going down.

But, then again, most people think that Great Depressions only tear down the rich.  Again, wrong-o-nomics!  Depressions are about burning the made-up money and to do that requires the wholesale destruction of savings.

Tragically, not just of the Rich.

Pandering to the Phonetards

It’s OK for the Fed to get things wrong.  Congress has ’em beat by a country mile, ever since they abdicated to the bankers and corporate masters when the Gold and Silver standards were abandon.

Interestingly, Bitcoin has, in our view, gone a long way toward pushing the financially ignorant class (90 percent of Americans) over to the “Money For Nothing” (Get your kicks for free) class.  Leaving America in Dire Straits.  BTC’s are rolling into paper fiat at 1 to 3427 ratio as you much.

When we read how “Rep. Ilhan Omar calls for sharp tax increases on the wealthy: ‘We’ve had it as high as 90 percent‘” it occurred to us we might have been transported to another dimension overnight.  Is this (radical) woman maneuvering to be Bernie’s running mate on the Wild and Crazy side of the democrat party, or is it just that a Centrist like Howard Schultz (who we figure might win) would just make too much sense?

Why, make the tax rates high enough for the rich and keep whittling down the local tax limit (from $10,000 in Tax Year 2018) and we could turn America into a New Sudan yet.  Leaving the border open would help move that along, too…

Another “Middle” Man?

‘Together, America, We Will Rise.’ Cory Booker Launches 2020 Campaign.  But  before you get too jacked on his bid, here’s a Google search that you may want to study.

Just Chill

Polar vortex death toll rises to 21 as US cold snap continues.  Warming next week many places.


Jim Stone Rocks the Border

Credit where due, for reporting done on “10 U.S. Code § 284” which you can find on the Cornell Legal Information Institute’s online collection of federal laws.

The catchy part to us?

(b)Types of Support for Agencies of United States.—The purposes for which the Secretary may provide support under subsection (a) for other departments or agencies of the Federal Government or a State, local, or tribal law enforcement agencies, are the following:

(blah, blah, blah until we come down to this part, #7 under B:

“(7)Construction of roads and fences and installation of lighting to block drug smuggling corridors across international boundaries of the United States.

(8)Establishment of command, control, communications, and computer networks for improved integration of law enforcement, active military, and National Guard activities.”

With Nancy saying no Wall money, seems Trump already has it in the legal lingo that it’s his job to oversee what?  “Construction of roads, fences and lighting…”

All of which was signed-off on by both houses of Congress and signed into law…who where, indeed, is the issue?  I mean besides democrats itching to raise taxes?  OK, and maybe allow in more poor from elsewhere so we can exploit them on their way up as our forefathers and foremothers…but oh, please, don’t unwrap exploitation from the exploitive economics because that all just blows up the right-left political charade the PowersThatBe use to control us all.


Off Planet Roll Call

We ask “What planet are these people from?” as we review:

Seems to us, it’s important to the masters of Digital Mob Rule to attack Israel as antisemitism is rebranded.  See Rep. Ilhan Omar defends Israel criticism for details.  Between her and AOC, workers paradise is coming for sure.  As long as you’re not above middle class, white, Jewish or… (who will they go after next?)  Shame on me for mentioning such.

Besides, it’s all about ME, ain’t it?  No?  Country singer Justin Moore shares gnarly photo of injured leg after a horse stepped on it.

Louis Farrakhan calls for separate state for Black Americans, says that’s ‘what God wants’.  Wait!  Isn’t that racist?


I’m So Sick of It…

That UrbanSurvival will be going back to the old publishing four times a week on the free side.  You want more?  Subscribe to Peoplenomics.  Besides, due to Bowl movements this weekend, people shouldn’t notice and I have a ton of planting to get in – trying a few acres of sunflowers.

We will bee seeing how that works this year.  Kitchen cabinet work looms too.

So does “retirement.”  With age 70 just a few weeks away, I’m gong to dial-back the 16-hour days to 12…  Maybe have a Saturday freebie…we’ll see how much I get done.

Next chapter on designing and building truly superior prepping with a great power system on the Peoplenomics side tomorrow.

And if New England wins?  Ask yourself it the Fed called it, lol…

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George Ure
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31 thoughts on “Super Bowl: Did the Fed Just Pick the Patriots?”

  1. Be sure to check the sunflower seeds for maggots before you plant. If you see small holes in the seed, check those seeds to see if they are infected. If you plant infected seed, you will always have maggots in your harvest.
    I’ve grown sunflowers every year since I was a kid. They’re great for providing some shade to young tree seedlings such as cedar or spruce windbreaks where I live. Helps give them a better start.

  2. Health Tip: For those of you who have Parkinsons I have come across something that some folks are using to help that situation. There is something in doing the Tai Chi type movements that can really be of benefit. If going to a class is not your thing then google Chi Gong and there are many movements to choose from.

  3. What these tax the rich types who look at history as a guide miss is that the 90% tax rate was during a world war.

    Both world wars did something else: they stopped immigration. In fact the depression and the wars blocked immigration and emigration. The rich couldn’t leave. The Union movement gained its biggest success during World War Two. World trade crashed and then Europe was reduced to ashes and rubble.

    Recently when France kicked the rate up to 75% people left. President Macron reduced the top rate but followed it up with an increase of taxes on carbon which is essentially a tax increase on everyone.

    • No. what you’re missing is this IS a world war. A Global Caliphate and a global corpgov alliance. It’s just the lines are jagged so you need to look for ’em…

      • …An alliance of convenience. TPTB believe they can use Islamic fundamentalists, and the various Marxist and faux anarchist groups to achieve their ends, then control or eliminate these groups of “useful idiots” once their ends are accomplished — a really dangerous game, especially with the disciples of Allah, who don’t play games.

  4. How to follow a Super Bowl when your team did not come close to making it. You find the local angle…A Bay Area fact about the Super Bowl. Both starting quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Jared Goff are Bay Area natives. Tom Brady went to Serra high school, an all boys Catholic school in San Mateo (my son went there) and Goff went to Marin Catholic High school in Marin County and then starred at CAL In Berkeley. Brady grew up a 49ers fan and idolized Joe Montana. Goff wore the number 16 as a tribute to Montana, but also idolized Brady as a local hero that made it big. In total, there are 8 Bay Area natives playing in this Super Bowl.

    • Remarkably, not one from Palestine, Texas in this one….
      The only local angle I could think out here in the outback was?
      Beer sales are brisk.
      But they are the time…so where’s that leave us?

  5. You have three years on me, being 67; so I understand the retirement thing. Basically retired from being an owner/operator of a corporation making cabinet drawer slides in 2000. I returned to my roots and the family farm, where I (for lack of better judgement) started row crop farming again. Could have rented the land to someone, but where is the fun in that?

    The idea of kicking back has crossed my mind, but now I find myself looking to expand my farming by several acres. I have no hired labor, so there is only one dog to kick which is me. Keeps me active and with the aid of modern machinery it lightens the physical labor.

    Do not farm a huge amount of acres (250), but usually make some money at it. Grandson loves the farm and I hope that someday he will at least take over the management of the land, regardless of his chosen profession.

    Unless, I suffer a serious health setback, I will continue on as I have been. Something gratifying about watching things grow. Try to stay away from the GMO crops as much as possible. Noticed that animals tend to graze non-GMO more than GMO. Figure they are smarter than most humans, when it comes to food. I also try to keep herbicide use to as low as possible. Can’t stand the thought of spraying crops and then watch deer eating that poison. If at all possible, I rely on soil applied herbicides make sure that doesn’t run-off into the streams. Not organic farming, but a close second.

    I guess I figure that if I stop farming, I am admitting that I am old. Which my aches and pains sometimes remind me that I am.

    Keep up the good writing.

    • “Could have rented the land to someone, but where is the fun in that?”
      Trust a slightly older feller’s take on this:
      The fun is in cashing the checks!

    • Lloyd… Sold the business and retired.. That answers the question as to why the quality of the slides made a drastic change.. I’m more than positive I made a few thousand drawers using products while you were in charge..

  6. I admit that, much like watching an accident, I’ll be tuning in on SBLIII from the National Anthem (sung by the great Gladys Knight) until probably half-time – but NOT the half-time show due, partly due to my need for a paycheck requires an early get-up for travel on Monday and partly due to my not giving a rats bahonkis about that insane entertainment circus.

    I love the Rams defense (but the Saints were undeniably robbed by the refs). However, Brady should put on rubber gloves and a surgical mask before taking the field, because he and Belichick ‘almost’ certainly will surgically dissect the Rams defense by the end of the 3rd quarter. Don’t get me wrong, but as a life long fan of the only team to win six Lombardi trophies, I would prefer the Rams pull the upset of the year in Atlanta. Yet the odds are that Brady, Gronk and Mr. Kraft will be taking home bling ring #6.

  7. George, you note the watered down dollar (4%) and the passing of Trump Bump (toast).

    Okay. So, the Trump Bump is gone, and all that’s left is more national debt and a watered down dollar. So, what does it mean? Do you then connect the dots?

    No. Once again you fail to note any connection between the quickly fleeting deficit stimulus sugar high from the Tax Cuts on the one hand, and adding another $2 trillion (10%) to the national debt/watering down the dollar on the other.

    Selling the Tax Cuts (overwhelmingly for the Rich) as Growth, instead of simply as more fairy tale pork Deficit Stimulus, was just more conservative Snake Oil. But we (including you) already knew that.

    So, call it out, already. Better late than never. Start here. How much does a 10% bump in the national debt water down the dollar? Best, Mike.

  8. Patriots & George win this Sunday. You could also just do one PN post on Wed & Sat & free up a little more time. Us retires only realize half of what is going on around us anyway.

  9. When things get really bad for your boss…so bad that you will say anything to spin something…anything… that may sound positive…here is what Sarah Sanders said…

    “I think God calls all of us to fill different roles at different times and I think that he wanted Donald Trump to become president, and that’s why he’s there.”

    Kind of like how God turned Sodom and Gomorrah into a pile of ash…or the world into one big flood plain…Or maybe this is the hidden 8 wrath of God… Yeah that’s it!

    • Well, God made you, and look what we got with that. Service daily on George’s comment section.

    • Mark.
      I voted for Trump.. One main reason.

      He wasn’t a politician but a businessman who’s company has one of the best retention levels in America. The employee’s feel he is personally accessible to him directly.
      I was so tired of leaders that were so corrupted had very little to do with society and the people they were hired to represent. A congress that has a horrible reputation as non producers.
      My first choice was Rand Paul.. But he is a person that believes in the constitution and the congress we have has unwittingly destroyed that. We have as a nation spent so much money on senseless wars and for what? We outsourced our industrial superiority and forced a once proud public to beg for scraps.
      I am not sure about the average but my ancestors are doing somersaults in their graves.
      Its time for change.
      I also truly believe that if someone else had made it in we would be in the middle of a ww

    • I guess Sarah Sanders hasn’t learned that God does not interfere with Politics or the Stock Market.

      Ask Hillary Clinton about Politics.

      Stock Market: Be not deceived; God is not mocked: for whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap. For he that soweth to his flesh shall of the flesh reap corruption; but he that soweth to the Spirit shall of the Spirit reap life everlasting.” Galatians 6:7-8

  10. “Super Bowl: Did the Fed Just Pick the Patriots?”

    If they did then My condolences on your loss! I will pray that there are brighter days ahead.

    Raise taxes….. Hmm has anyone seen what the daily interest is. How can you spend more and make less?

    Was there a rapture…yes according to ancient prophecies the rapture has already happened! Your stuck here in purgatory with me . or is it hell since we are forced to witness the stupidity of those that should be the best and most loyal leaders. Bound by puppeteers whose only interests are sensless wars for a commodity killing,theft,raping the land and maiming in the name of peace, humanity and tranquility ..

    Just my observations

    • Looking: There is no place in the Bible that mentions or hints of a RAPTURE where true believers will be taken up in the air to live with Jesus & avoid the tribulation. Also, there is no mention of Purgatory. I am a Catholic which doesn’t recognize a RAPTURE, but does Purgatory, but Purgatory is not Bible based, but Catholic Doctrine.

      • Exactly ECS…
        It is how man interpreted what. Is wife hates it when I talk religion it isn’t allowed.. Mostly because I could pizza off the pope.

        That’s also why a lot of books had to be eliminated from the bible.
        I get a chuckle when people spout old testament laws in the name of Christianity..even when it was the very same laws that put Christ on the

        My belief is the old testament was added so we would know how not to act.they were laws that were interpreted by the society religious leaders of the day.. Not necessarily consecrated by God.
        Instead I get a chuckle out of those that spit out old testament laws as a Christian point of view.
        Without ever considering that by the laws of that day Christ should have been put to death while his mother watched and then stoned to death as her parents being forced to watch…
        This is also one reason I think we should cautiously let legal migrants enter our country. They live by old testament law.. The Quran is basically a book written off the Torah .. They follow it to the letter.

  11. I planted a small plot of sunflowers last year. I was hoping to attract doves during dove season. I live in Iowa and the sunflowers grew very easily. The only problem I had was that the Goldfinch birds apparently love sunflowers. By the time dove season arrived all of my sunflower seeds had been eaten by the Goldfinch! Oh well they were fun to watch. You should be able to get some really good photos of the birds if you wish. Enjoy!

  12. Looking back at last year, the markets had a nice run-up in Jan 18 before a collapse in Feb 2018. 2019 may be the same. With all the insanity going on, something has to give, especially with weak markets in China.

  13. Retirement is measured in how much you enjoy your days… not in how much you get done. I know you enjoy what you do, but you need not always be so ‘driven’. Give yourself a break… it’s all good. [Radical change of attitude from five years ago as a Big-City TV engineer full of constant stress]

  14. Howard Schultz is not a centrist. He is a radical Liberal. For someone like Schultz, who is not a politician and has no political record, one has to make a judgement call, based on his conduct and on the public speech or writing he made, from the period of time before he contemplated a political career.

    Howard Schultz is, what I would deem, a “European Socialist” or perhaps a Fascist-Corporatist. He’s certainly “moderate” when compared to the utter Marxists who’ve had themselves dealt-in at the table so far, but based on his own rhetoric, would be four full increment-marks Left of the political mean in the United States, and two+ marks left of JFK, who was a “radical leftist” in 1960, and whom I consider my benchmark for making judgement calls on the degree of “leftistness” of any, and every politician.

    Personally, I’m waiting for one of these candidates to run on a 90% tax on “the wealthy” which includes a 90% tax on their assets, as well as their income…

  15. I won’t be watching the Stupor Bowl. Consider it a personal protest. Of the four teams in the League Playoffs, I had no “dog in the fight” and so, watched the two games without bias or prejudice (except that bias which everyone in flyover country holds against the Pats.) Everyone is whining about the PI no-call. No one has even mentioned the — equally obvious — PI no-call in the 3rd, or the one in the overtime, either of which could have assured a Saints victory.

    Three refs missing one “game-changing” call might be “stupid referee error.” Three refs missing three such calls is “an agenda,” and a “fix.”
    I refuse to suborn or support institutionalized cheating, and I hope this year’s Super Bowl is a money-loser for the NFL.

    The Super Bowl “storyline” was to be the rematch of the 11/19 game between the Rams and the Chiefs — the two “best(?)” but certainly the two most exciting teams in the NFL this year. BellyCheck screwed that up by coaching a good enough game that despite the “50-50 calls” which went KC’s way (actually about 65-35) Kansas City couldn’t beat the Patriots.

    BTW, Nawlins is a million-viewer market. L.A. is a 20million-viewer market. Just sayin’…

  16. I am 75, so I will watch a farmer plant his crops on a documentary, watch the SBLIII and root for who ever is behind, drink beer, eat hot dogs and chips,bitch about the satanic half time show, cuss our congress out about illegal immigration and using fiat instead of Gold and Silver, and finally PRAY to GOD that He does not unleash HIS wrath on Mark , unless he is by himself out in the Sunflower fields watching the bees pollinate them.

  17. Hello Old Dude, just got back from my 30 day sebatical.

    Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh buddy, did i have a doozy of a vision!!!!

    Reality is a far bigger trip than i had ever imagined. Even beyond anything i ever saw in a NDE.

    Catch up with ya tomorrow.

  18. Mercifully, I’ve been invited to a wonderful party for a friend to celebrate Chinese New Year, so I won’t be watching TV at all. I never watched the “super” bowl – I’d much rather empty a bowl of dumplings. I’m sure someone will post the results for casual conversation.

    I really like the idea of sunflowers! They’re one of the few things I might actually be able to grow. After spending years trying and giving up on gardening/farming, this is a good final try.

    For some reason, well water doesn’t seem to inspire the plants. When it actually rains, plants just jump out from the ground. Usually weeds though, and sunflowers.

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