Slow-Speed Social Collapse (1)

Faster than Rome, Slower than Venezuela.  Maybe.  A 20-year colleague in the study of long wave economics has been corresponding with me as we continue to consider how what has been ‘marketed’ as anti-fragile complex society may in fact just be a society unfamiliar with the nature of non-linear systems.

Don’t worry; we won’t be tossing around terms for you to graph, although Northwestern University’s open textbook discussion of Placewise linear approximations may lead you in some interesting directions.

Instead, we will use our ‘truth templates’ from our Substitution Method of Learning (SML) to show you how some moderate-to-advance aircraft acrobatics (aerobatics, since I used to fly one) will teach you more about real-world economics than any collection of loud-mouth socialists who have never created value for a living; instead spending their time on OPM/TM (other people’s money/tax money).

A few headlines, the weekly ChartPack and then we’re ready for a take-off into the future of slow-motion (initially) social collapse.  Cheery stuff, huh?

More for Subscribers      |||     SUBSCRIBE NOW!       |||   Subscriber Help Center

14 thoughts on “Slow-Speed Social Collapse (1)”

  1. Ah George every one in society push’s their own special brand of B.S. as the truth, when in truth they don’t have a clue be it the economist or those with their own reasons which is nothing but greed ,trickle down economics come to mind or to better label it for what it is “socialism for the wealthy” which has led us to the trillions in debt with more to come, high unemployment, obscene taxes on the working class while cutting the taxes on the wealthy, to wages that have never caught up with inflation as the country continues be be run by a handful of the billionaire club, and that’s not going to change in your lifetime or mine.!!!!

      • So far the narrative on the Trump walk back on Huawei is that American companies may be allowed to sell them some selected hardware components deemed as not a threat to national interest. Allowing Huawei to sell equipment in this country which can wholesale steal data doesn’t seem to be on the table so far.
        Trump may also be throwing out a tease with every intention of walking away at the most embarassing possible moment. Paybacks are. …well, you know.
        I can’t argue with the rest of your comments other than to mention that there are other countries and branches of government involved in the looting. The D clown car has no one at the wheel, honk, honk.

    • Robert: At least you live in a country where you have the opportunity to become a billionaire. Try to be a little more “the glass is half full.”

      I am watching Season 1 of “Goliath” with “Billy Bob Thorton”, who was once married to Angelena Jolie prior to the Pittster, on Prime Video. This Prime Original Series supports your position in a real world, hard hitting style that shows you who is in charge (not us). I am not at the end of Season 1 yet, so the good guy (Billy Bob) might win, but look how much he lost on the way. Billy Bob is the good guy only because the others are worse people than him.

  2. Trump folds on National Security threat Huawei ……..Not surprised in the least … his internal polling was probably correct he would not be re-elected. Hence he needs a deal no matter how bad. No wall, has not stopped the invasion of illegal aliens, we are not out of the Middle East, Medical premiums thru the roof, prescription costs thru the roof, rents thru the roof, gasoline up in price but will be thru the roof, and lastly if re-elected the budget will not be balanced. The problem is the Democrats and their clown parade, expecting Michelle to be pulled out and be the nominee if nothing dramatically changes….

  3. The point being George that any long wave economics in a corrupted system such as ours (reasons stated above) has little chance of being valid, for what could you possible base it on.!!

  4. Almost all physical processes (and economic processes) are non-linear to some degree, and the models which describe these processes can only be at best linear approximations of non-linear systems. Linear systems have dynamics, and can be modeled accurately with mathematics and algorithms descended from differential calculus. Non-linearities can take the form of storage, constants which aren’t really constants, etc. I would guess that Keynesian printing presses and bad debt are non-linearities. Bad instrumentation inputs such as phony politicized economic statistics also defeat the modeling. Garbage in yields garbage out the coders once said.

    Social mood is one of those constants which isn’t. Prechter believes all markets are driven by social mood and little else. Can inhuman trading patterns of warring human engineered algorithms be modeled with existing tools and methods of analysis ? The Fed seems to be floundering in its analysis role, and abandoning it’s smoke and mirror leadership role.

    The world I see and the world being advertised by the powers that be (remember them?) don’t seem to agree. Everything is politicized. One and perhaps two generations of American kids are being screwed mercilessly and their futures and the industries built by their forefathers are being shipped off to foreign lands which hate all things American, while the politicos crow of their latest victory. And what job crumbs which are left are being handed to foreign quid pro quo gold-diggers while the employers chase foreign contracts.

    I don’t need to see an economic model to know that a slow-speed social collapse is in progress, but accelerating. Social collapse is not the same as market collapse, but when reality sets in for the markets, the collapse of the card houses will be historic. I occasionally go to the bookstore in the city at a local upscale mall; almost none of the other other patrons look, sound or act like native-born Americans of any persuasion. To some of you who are continuing to ride high hanging on the coattails of the elites and foreign clientele, that which goes around comes around. Get out of debt and live below your means.

    I was pouting about my failure to capitalize on a recent market opportunity to one of my more wealthy acquaintances. His response was “At least you didn’t lose your ass”. His and my own thinking is evolving from constantly looking for opportunities to simply trying not to get screwed. Urban Survival is very relevant to me. The economic analysis is entertaining, but like with the politicos, I am getting diminishing returns for my effort in paying attention.

    On the bright side, I’ve been procuring parts for poorly maintained non-electrics, and I am finding wicks and such available at Lehmans and Amazon. Walmart has a decent price for lamp oil, and a good stock which isn’t particularly easy to find. First we get the oil and kerosene appliances spruced up, then we think about some solar stuff.

    • Lehman’s is great but sometimes spendy. For an unlikely, but often productive source, check out online apiaries, and candlemaking and soapmaking sites. The two once practical, but now nuveau artsy disciplines are both complimentary and synergistic, and require ample supplies of beehive products. A number of all three sell coal, whale, and kero lamp parts, and some of the finest wick available, short of weaving your own (BTW Aladdin lamps especially, don’t like my homespun wick…)

  5. If you really want to break it down the economy is a zero sum game.

    We’re all running cons on each other. Points are scored in $. After a successful con we put the “score” into neutral $s. Some people are better at the game and insert themselves as middle parties in between.

    Speaking to the 100 year toaster. A month or three back – it was Spring, I bought a stove top whistling tea kettle from WallyWorld. At the time I sized up the options there on the shelf. I choose what I thought to be the most durable/best construction, 100% stainless steel with a plastic whistle top. I thought it would last two, three years… maybe more. How could I go wrong?

    Recently I noticed the handle is riveted into place with iron rivets. I know because the tiny rivets are rusting! I’ll be lucky to get six months before the handle cracks off. After, it’ll look beautiful gleaming from a landfill top.

    I can’t find the original packing material ‘else I could go back and wrestle “without” a receipt. “without” because I’m most likely 90 days out from “gool” – purchase date. But in this case, WallyWorld will keep that score.

    I was conned on the simplest of items, a whitelisting tea kettle. Note: WallyWorld is a front for the manufacturer, a faceless corporation concealed somewhere in the gloom of our toil. Later at the end of year liquidation sale, more of my production will be used on a tea kettle. The rat wheel is never-ending. We get screwed on the fail-safe options.

    • Maybe you should shop at Goodwill.and other stores with donated items. I buy most of my needs 2nd hand as many are older quality, still in great condition and about 1/5 the original price.

      Ive bought old rugby shirts with the white canvas collars, that still have a fresh look to them. And they werent made in China.

      Same goes for appliances like toaster ovens, mixers, baking and cooking wares, et al.

      Also found old fashioned men’s swim suits that aren’t knee length. You wont find them at any retail location that sells new cheaply made clothes.

      Its amazing what people donate.

      Shopping at Goodwill Super Stores isnt what it use to be.

  6. Sadly, I’m seeing more of “Atlas Shrugged” playing out in real life. The president is doing his best, IMHO, to actually do what he promised to do, and is being deflected and abused at every turn by other entities within the government. So far, I’m still on his side.

    Unfortunately, the economic boom, real or otherwise, has caused an increase in empire building within local and state governments. The worst is that they join “councils of governments” to exchange ideas on how to better control people in their jurisdictions. They’ve figured out that rather than being “of the people”, they’re there to farm them and they get greedy. They see potential money on the table and can’t wait to exercise power and control over it. This is manifest through many more rules and regulations, such that owning anything visible is losing all appeal. If you own something, it will be taxed, demands will be put upon it, and ultimately it will be regulated to the point that it’s not worth having. This applies to both real and personal property.

    The ultimate insult is the proposal to mark to market all investments on a yearly basis. Yet another reason to not even bother. An individual with rental houses, vacant land, machinery or a business could spend his entire year trying to value such things on an ongoing basis and still be wrong, yet must sign his tax return under penalty of perjury. Why even bother? Why take the risk? Just sell out and move out if you can find an easier place to live in. Life is supposed to be fun, and if there’s no possible reward, you might as well quit working and striving for it.

    • NM Mike, to me, you have hit on a few very critical items. Atlas Shrugged, everyone should read this tome. Secondly, communism, the owning of everything by the state (my shorthand version). In little ole Austin, the mayor has signed, sealed, and delivered on his AGENDA. He has opened up the city for homeless to camp ANYWHERE except at City Hall. They can even camp on sidewalks as long as people can walk AROUND them. Austin is the new Seattle, just of the South. He well knows where this is heading, but he doesn’t care. He is flooding the city with people from everywhere but here, and then he is adamantly striding forth dispossessing locals of their homes by actively, ongoing, relentlessly changing the single-family home -zoning structure of the neighborhoods effectively GENTRIFING the whole 8 mile circumference around the inner core. DENSIFICATION by any other name is property theft via the rolling demolition of homes to be replaced by QUADS effectively raising property taxes on everyone else thus furthering the demise of the neighborhoods that people used to be able to afford to live in. SEATTLE IS DYING, WILL BE REPLACED BY “AUSTIN IS DYING, TOO.” (Gotta stay up with the ME TOO movement, don’t ya know.) Already hotel rentals are DOWN 5 years ongoing – do you think dealing with the aggressive homeless everywhere has something to do with that? Yet they want to rebuild the convention center! They have Re-zoned hundreds of streets for bikes, and buses effectively slowing the traffic to a crawl and standstill during rush hour and now on the record for purposefully making laws, rules, regulations, and decisions to get people OUT of their cars and onto their bikes or the bus. THEY ARE CHANGING PEOPLE’S BEHAVIOR. Now millions are being stripped from the taxpayers to pay for the much needed affordable housing, the CRISES THEY CREATED. The developers are getting Communist Russian style Housing Blocks built all over the city. Leadership speaks out of both sides of their mouths – forked tongues are once more in vogue all over the city (land of America). There is a DRUG problem, but no beds for TREATMENT/ recovering addicts, 100 new beds to tackle the 4500 homeless citizens, which has to be an under count. George, the business model of stripping the citizens of their cash for problems that NEVER get solved is alive and well in Austin, Texas. Keep the drugs flowing into Texas; keep the illegals, refugees, and MS13 flowing into Texas, keep the citizens paying for everyone’s welfare but their own. Amazing, what the UN and globalists can do to America, one city at a time. P.S. EBOLA has hitched a ride to America in the cells of the refugees. A nice little refuge outside of the city sounds pretty good.

Comments are closed.