Shortened Markets & Gifts for Christmas

This being Christmas Eve Day, we have a lot to cover so I’ll keep the commentary light and the information density high.

Market’s Nearing Peak?

But when it comes, no one will know.  Main thing to hold in mind is that when you look back a year ago, and see that the market lows came around Christmas and into the first week of the New Year, remember that the one-year, capital gains tax breaks will be coming up.  So for the High Rollers, there won’t be much incentive to “ride the market higher” if that’s in the cards.

People who “bought low to sell high” can pocket a 35% (and more) gain early in the new year and scurry off to cash.  But, as I reminded a short-inclined reader in Australia this morning, remember the Greenspan admonition that “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”  Or, words to that effect.

While we may have dabbled a bit on the long side of this blow-off, some of our scribblings hold hope of a further 3-5% rise.  But, that’s not market advice any more  than “hold on tight” is when severe turbulence hits an airplane.  Everything should work out, but sometimes it doesn’t.

Markets, sensing an excuse to party will be closing at 1 PM Eastern today and the bond markets will follow at 2 PM.

Two (yawnable) data points will be out during the session:  Redbook (not usually exciting – as in sit on the edge of your chair) and come to think of it, neither is the following Richmond Fed survey, but it’s slightly more enticing.

As of 6 AM Central, the futures were up 7-10ths of one person, or about 20 Dow points.  This won’t be a “strike-it-rich” day, more than likely.

Bitcoin at $7,363 if you like to support dirty money.  (Which evades taxes honest people pay, is used largely for drugs and sex trafficking and is the coin of the realm of Silk Road-like enterprises…OH:  and which has 2,000 competitors selling the same “We’re so special…”   We’re thinking about launching AssCoins in 2020.  We can make up fairytales as well as the next guys…  Oh, wait, damn!  Too honest…sheesh.  I’d be a lot richer without such qualms…

Boring News Flow, Too, Except…

Our attention was on the 6.0 earthquake up on Vancouver Island Tuesday.  Details on the USGS site here, but 101.3 miles west of the northwest tip of Vancouver Island west of  Port Hardy, B.C.

Reason for our concern is that Earthquakes, for reasons unknown, tend to “like” Holidays.  Examples include the Good Friday Quake (Alaska, 1964) and the Boxing Day Quake (was it 2004?).  Since this is along the big West Coast fault line series and the Juan de Fuca subduction zone, we’re reminding the PNWS offspring to have 5-gallons of water per person on hand…just in case.

Although honestly, this is something everyone on the West Coast ought to have.  When the Big One comes (and they do periodically) it will be a “thief in the night” or “no one knows the hour” type things.  Most such events can only be somewhat hedged, but you’d have to be a damn fool not to.  (We’ll skip the question of whether “damn fools” are drawn to the coasts for another morning.)

Lesser Headlines

See if you can stay awake through these:

Let’s start with the very CNN-likeWhile #MeToo backlash raged in 2019, the movement notched up big gains.”  Story is largely attributed to a law prof in the People’s Republik of Oregon.

In the “Glass Half Full” department, credit to CNBC forHow traffic jams cost the US economy billions of dollars a year” but there’s another side to it.  We figure it’s really just the opposite: Traffic jams save money by preventing the economy from over-heating.  But, everyone’s a partisan these days – and on everything.  Me, too?

If you can’t trust his news, could you trust him in office dept: Bloomberg News Fined Over $7 Million For Fake News Report In France.

War for “climate tax revenue” firms up. Go read the report In Asia Pacific the climate crisis is happening now, not in the future where the source is the U.N. and then tell me that climate hysteria to tax isn’t the agenda…

The Great Firewall of Russia is coming:  Taking a page from China, In Asia Pacific the climate crisis is happening now, not in the future Comrades of a feather IP block together?

IQ Honors due?  No, but notice how Sweden has entered rehab from their socialist wet dream that negative interest rates might actually work.  See the  ZeroHedge piece on Negative Rates & The Destruction Of Money: Sweden Ends Its Experiment.  Remember, Socialism is about  ideals.  And Ideally, they want your assets.  And as we learned from Obama, they’ll lie to get ’em.  (Check your healthcare costs if you doubt me..)

Emergency landing needed: Boeing Fires C.E.O. Dennis Muilenburg.

Watch Baltimore (because they’re watching you!) Dept: Baltimore Resurrects Spy Plane Program To Monitor Citizens.

Government UnBlocked: We recently redesigned and are in the process of re-enabling RSS (Really Simple Syndication) feeds.  We see this as another Trump kicking sand in the face of old-line, stone-walling media who justed to run things and monetize access to freely available public information…

And Better than a Yule Log…

If you’re planning to “get off the planet in a cloud of smoke” you’ll find today’s Marijuana Business Journal Chart: Pre-Christmas marijuana product sales increase up to 53% of interest.  (You are not alone?)

Military: No DNA Tests?

Yeah, this one strikes us as a bit odd:  The DoD is telling servicemembers NOT to use those home DNA tests.  Seems there are some low-end ones that are being target marketed at the dot-mil types, reports CNBC.

This raises all kinds of questions, not the least of which is “Could DNA targetted weapons be on the horizon?  (*This Bug’s for you, kind of thing?)

At our age (70’s) it’s a “who cares…”  But if younger, we’d be far more controlling of all our personal data.  For now, when you pass 70, your data value will decline quickly.  Especially if you have enough axious heirs around to defend family interests thereafter./

Asian Food Decline?

I don’t remember if it was here (free) or on the high-roller’s Peoplenomics ($40/year) side that I mentioned that stir fry seemed to be declining in popularity.

What, you say it was that Sunday piece on cooking?  OK, then.\

Here’s another gastronomic oddity:  Seems like Chinese restaurants are closing down around the country, and have been for the past 5-years says the NY Times report over here.  That’s won ton of closures, as we see it.

Merry and Happy…

Have a dandy resynchronizing with the Almighty – since that’s what holidays were nominally based-on.  Before it became a financial event.

Looking ahead: One of Ham Radio’s coolest nights of the year is a week from tonight.  We get out our tube-type equipment and use a hand key to send NY greets worldwide.  Open to suggestions from ham/readers as to what frequency we should be on – 40 or 80-meters and a time?  (I could gin-up a “Worked UrbanSurvival Certificate” for the event…)

Thursday night:  Been invited to be on Coast to Coast AM with George Noory, always a lot of fun.  Since I’ll be up late, be sure to drop by for Friday morning’s column to see how coherent I can remain after an all-nighter…

Rest well tonight, too, knowing Peoplenomics charts should be there tomorrow and firefighter/EMT son G2 is on duty tonight up in Leavenworth, WA. Thanks to all of our fire, police, emergency medical, and US military for keeping things orderly until Boxing Day…

Write when you get rich,

36 thoughts on “Shortened Markets & Gifts for Christmas”

  1. Although not involved in bitcoin the Gov’t for years now has been wanting to get rid of the $100 Bill and take it out of circulation as it is the currency of criminals and yet Treasury Secretary Mnuchin can’t explain why $1.5Trillion dollars worth of $100 bills are missing??

    • I don’t use either for various reasons, but both BTC and $100 bills are the currency of freedom. Yes, criminals use them, but the right(not privilege) to be anonymous is not to be infringed. I can make far better deals on Craigslist by flashing cash than by using any other method. Buying drugs and sex are illegal, yet they harm nobody unless force or fraud is involved. I cannot approve of a world where those who accept responsibility for themselves and their actions are refused the right to enjoy such things. Paradoxically, we still have the right to climb mountains and skydive – actions that have equal or greater risks.

      When we refuse others the right to enjoy themselves, we limit ourselves to the same degree, though it’s not always immediately apparent.

      Most $100 bills are either parked somewhere as a store of value or used as currency in countries where the local scrip is of constantly declining value. Why risk money in a bank if the rate of return(if any) is .01%?

      • One ZH article, published for the second time, said there are more C-notes out there than one dollar bills – and no one knows where they are. … … An’ I ain’t talkin’!

    • We tend to blame the Gov’t for many issues, however, it’s US the people (too stupid to comprehend!) that are to blame. THINK!

  2. For those who watch it, Nightly Business Report will end it’s 40 year run on 12/27. I will miss it’s concise and “lack of an agenda” reporting.

  3. DNA targeting ?? Gene Bomb? A disease targeting social security aged peeps of northern European decent – nooo – that is the stuff hollywood movies…right? I guess they figured out that Max’s Smart Bomb would have absolutely no effect on 47-49% of population (braindead Dems/Libs/Pinkypussyhatwearers).

    Congratulations George ! U seem to have moved on from Denial and on to Anger – only 3 more stages to go..looking forward to when Ure at Acceptance of BTC’s..geeesh!

    Economy kicking butt, Trump kicking butt, Trade Deal warming up for some serious butt kicking – this market is just getting started – FED cash, Corp buybacks – PARTY ON !

    • Then of course there is delusion which is where many people reside to get away from reality,as my father use to say a fool and his money are soon parted, and as this recession (yes we are in a recession) deepens perhaps into a depression they will have to face reality.
      Manufacturing (what little is left of it is down) transportation, freight is down 630 trucking companies have fold their tent and left town this year,rail is way down while the Fed. keeps the market up which means any use the market may have had only adds to your delusion.!!!

    • I agree. DOW 50,00? I am even starting to become pro Bitcoin. I am sending $100 to Cash App to buy Bitcoin. Commission is $2.27. As it wildly swings, I will buy more, maybe.

  4. George

    “And as we learned from Obama, they’ll lie to get ’em. (Check your healthcare costs if you doubt me..)”

    An article on has this title:

    “Trump Takes Jackhammer to Obamacare, Repeals Major ACA Taxes”

    There is hope that Obama Care dies in the near future.

  5. George, you’re going to be on with George Noory, and it’s lots of fun. I think you would also have lots of fun with Greg Hunter at USA Watchdog. Perhaps you can check out his site and drop him an email. I’m sure he would love to have you.

    Merry Christmas.

  6. That “Markets can stay irrational” was from Keynes. Greeny never thought markets could be irrational, they were God after all.

  7. Merry Christmas to George, Elaine, Zeus, and family. I trust you’ll all have a good time. Try not to eat too much!

    I was not happy to see the comment on Chinese restaurants. I rarely eat out and prefer just staying home, but I do love stir fry, and I won’t even attempt it myself. I do hope this is a short term trend – I prefer Chinese food to other Asian food by far, though food is not that important to me as long as there’s enough.

  8. George,
    -I thought about responding to your swipe at Bloomberg’s honesty, when Trump’s lies and corruption are literally a way of life.
    -Or your swipe at Sweden’s lowering interest rates, when that is Trump’s bread and butter.
    -Or ask where is the outrage when our bubble is Obama’s growth trend plus the R’s massive deficit spending (in good times!!).
    -Or ask if you’re cool with federal revenues falling off of a cliff.
    -Or ask why the natl debt is fully subsidizing the stock buybacks supporting the stock market.
    -Or ask wouldn’t it be great to give the stock market another snort by offloading another 5% of their expenses onto the natl debt.
    -Or ask how’s that deregulation going for Boeing?

    But what’s the point? Merry Christmas. Best, Mike.

  9. Why is the DoD telling service people to not use 23 and me and other DNA tests? Maybe I have watched too many old episodes of the X-Files, but is the food in the mess halls laced with some concoction not create sup soldiers that they don’t want made public? Sort of tongue in cheek comment…But….

  10. “Asian Food Decline?
    I don’t remember if it was here (free) or on the high-roller’s Peoplenomics ($40/year) side that I mentioned that stir fry seemed to be declining in popularity.”

    Hmm.. I personally don’t think that the decline is because people have fallen away from eating chinese.. or any other quisine..
    I am a bottom feeder.. so.. on the average I see things from the perspective of miracle substance Brown 25 side of life…

    If you check you will notice that there has been a significant decline in restaurants profits..

    Oh how wrong they are to LOL seems everyone in MSM is putting the puzzle together with oven mits and a blind fold on.. LOL.. there is a shrinking middle class.. but the true reason is pretty simple..
    with deregulation and outsourcing jobs.. the vast majority of jobs went to the service industry..wages and bonuses went to the top and industry to cut costs to increase bonuses quit offering benefit packages to the lower employee’s.. ( well .. they pretty much dropped little willie in the mousetrap..)from my perspective employee’s became dependent on social programs rather than industry to survive..( its planned read the book) as a way to give back.. last year SNAP was cut and that money was given back to ( guess who) in tax cuts.. 130 bln..
    since one in two now are dependent and with the overall cuts.. the money for necessities has to come from someplace.. so.. you feed yourself rather than go out the cuts in the snap program has to be made up since the snap program is basically the soup lines of the thirties the vast majority of the labor that has had a cut.. could be fifty dollars.. but then you don’t spend that fifty dollars on durable goods or dining out. you brown bag it.. you will also note the steep incline in grab and go sandwhitch makings.. for the same period..
    How it works.. if you don’t make enough to survive.. then you cut.. so if your having to put the extra money you would spend on dry goods into food sales.. dry goods and entertainment costs will suffer.. rather than go out and have a bite to eat.. you eat at home.. My thought is as this trend progresses.. the cuts like our deficite will enter a race to survive.. no money so buying.. we cut all holiday spending out this year.. and it has been the same for everyone I know.. rich people may spend a little.. but you don’t get rich by being a shopper.. you save money or use other peoples money.. thats why they are on average the worst tippers they will argue over a nickle on the price of a ham….
    this to is a double edged sword.. since the closing of restaurants.. ( waitresses wages is tips and the vast majority of them are single parents or college kids) the end results are more people needing social prgrams and more people unemployed.. more debt forcloseurs since you can’t pay if there isn’t an income..
    of course all of that is just my opinion.. but the figures match..and the puzzle piece fits..

    • Oh.. Merry Christmas… to you and yours.. may your holiday be filled with friendship , love and happiness..

  11. Merry Christmas George & Elaine! Thanks for entertaining us all year, and maybe take a moment to read the email I sent to you a while back about starting a weekly talk show on KGRA.

  12. “Seems like Chinese restaurants are closing down around the country, and have been for the past 5-years”

    A number of Chinese restaurants, specifically certain chains, were set up by the Triad in the 1960s to 1980s as money- and people-laundering operations. The majority of employees of Chinese restaurants here are Latino now, and don’t hablo ingleas (OR Chinese, FTM.) I’m guessing Triad (and its competitors) have found a cheaper and easier route by which to smuggle sex slaves and drugs into the U.S. and a more efficient laundering operation than a Triad shell-company-owned restaurant chain.

    As a totally unrelated aside: A local mom & pop restaurant sold out a few months ago to the owners of the local Chinese restaurant. The Chinese restaurateur, reportedly a shrewd businessman, paid roughly 3x the value of the greasy spoon to change ownership and run the store, and the menu with no modifications…

  13. REVERSE POLARITY SUNSPOTS: A new solar cycle is coming. Today, two sunspots emerged on the solar disk. Their reversed magnetic polarity marks them as members of new Solar Cycle 25. This quickening of new-cycle solar activity suggests that the sun is not entering a new Maunder Minimum despite the recent scarcity of sunspots. Visit today’s edition of for the full story.

  14. to George and the great crew on his site merry xmas . no body has a bell George .. and yes they have fabricated and rigged a gold buy signal on xmas eve.!!!! I would rather be poor than join in the evil stuff .. 25 years in gold and never seen such garbage and stories .. anyway all I know is that George is the only in years that I would have over for .. every other guru can go and .. well you know

  15. yes and the vix can probably go negative as we head to controlled centralist world economy run by robots .. merry xmas

  16. A Merry Christmas to Markz..and a Hello from Frisco….San Francisco Blows $94 Million This Year In Failed War On Human Excrement

    by Tyler Durden

    Despite spending over $94 million – or around $257k per day this year, San Francisco is still a needle-infested, poo-covered, failed experiment in tolerance that continues to scare major conferences and their tourist dollars away from the city’s $9 billion-a-year industry.

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