This being Christmas Eve Day, we have a lot to cover so I’ll keep the commentary light and the information density high.
Market’s Nearing Peak?
But when it comes, no one will know. Main thing to hold in mind is that when you look back a year ago, and see that the market lows came around Christmas and into the first week of the New Year, remember that the one-year, capital gains tax breaks will be coming up. So for the High Rollers, there won’t be much incentive to “ride the market higher” if that’s in the cards.
People who “bought low to sell high” can pocket a 35% (and more) gain early in the new year and scurry off to cash. But, as I reminded a short-inclined reader in Australia this morning, remember the Greenspan admonition that “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Or, words to that effect.
While we may have dabbled a bit on the long side of this blow-off, some of our scribblings hold hope of a further 3-5% rise. But, that’s not market advice any more than “hold on tight” is when severe turbulence hits an airplane. Everything should work out, but sometimes it doesn’t.
Markets, sensing an excuse to party will be closing at 1 PM Eastern today and the bond markets will follow at 2 PM.
Two (yawnable) data points will be out during the session: Redbook (not usually exciting – as in sit on the edge of your chair) and come to think of it, neither is the following Richmond Fed survey, but it’s slightly more enticing.
As of 6 AM Central, the futures were up 7-10ths of one person, or about 20 Dow points. This won’t be a “strike-it-rich” day, more than likely.
Bitcoin at $7,363 if you like to support dirty money. (Which evades taxes honest people pay, is used largely for drugs and sex trafficking and is the coin of the realm of Silk Road-like enterprises…OH: and which has 2,000 competitors selling the same “We’re so special…” We’re thinking about launching AssCoins in 2020. We can make up fairytales as well as the next guys… Oh, wait, damn! Too honest…sheesh. I’d be a lot richer without such qualms…
Boring News Flow, Too, Except…
Our attention was on the 6.0 earthquake up on Vancouver Island Tuesday. Details on the USGS site here, but 101.3 miles west of the northwest tip of Vancouver Island west of Port Hardy, B.C.
Reason for our concern is that Earthquakes, for reasons unknown, tend to “like” Holidays. Examples include the Good Friday Quake (Alaska, 1964) and the Boxing Day Quake (was it 2004?). Since this is along the big West Coast fault line series and the Juan de Fuca subduction zone, we’re reminding the PNWS offspring to have 5-gallons of water per person on hand…just in case.
Although honestly, this is something everyone on the West Coast ought to have. When the Big One comes (and they do periodically) it will be a “thief in the night” or “no one knows the hour” type things. Most such events can only be somewhat hedged, but you’d have to be a damn fool not to. (We’ll skip the question of whether “damn fools” are drawn to the coasts for another morning.)
See if you can stay awake through these:
Let’s start with the very CNN-like “While #MeToo backlash raged in 2019, the movement notched up big gains.” Story is largely attributed to a law prof in the People’s Republik of Oregon.
In the “Glass Half Full” department, credit to CNBC for “How traffic jams cost the US economy billions of dollars a year” but there’s another side to it. We figure it’s really just the opposite: Traffic jams save money by preventing the economy from over-heating. But, everyone’s a partisan these days – and on everything. Me, too?
If you can’t trust his news, could you trust him in office dept: Bloomberg News Fined Over $7 Million For Fake News Report In France.
War for “climate tax revenue” firms up. Go read the report In Asia Pacific the climate crisis is happening now, not in the future where the source is the U.N. and then tell me that climate hysteria to tax isn’t the agenda…
The Great Firewall of Russia is coming: Taking a page from China, In Asia Pacific the climate crisis is happening now, not in the future. Comrades of a feather IP block together?
IQ Honors due? No, but notice how Sweden has entered rehab from their socialist wet dream that negative interest rates might actually work. See the ZeroHedge piece on Negative Rates & The Destruction Of Money: Sweden Ends Its Experiment. Remember, Socialism is about ideals. And Ideally, they want your assets. And as we learned from Obama, they’ll lie to get ’em. (Check your healthcare costs if you doubt me..)
Emergency landing needed: Boeing Fires C.E.O. Dennis Muilenburg.
Watch Baltimore (because they’re watching you!) Dept: Baltimore Resurrects Spy Plane Program To Monitor Citizens.
Government UnBlocked: We recently redesigned State.gov and are in the process of re-enabling RSS (Really Simple Syndication) feeds. We see this as another Trump kicking sand in the face of old-line, stone-walling media who justed to run things and monetize access to freely available public information…
And Better than a Yule Log…
If you’re planning to “get off the planet in a cloud of smoke” you’ll find today’s Marijuana Business Journal Chart: Pre-Christmas marijuana product sales increase up to 53% of interest. (You are not alone?)
Military: No DNA Tests?
Yeah, this one strikes us as a bit odd: The DoD is telling servicemembers NOT to use those home DNA tests. Seems there are some low-end ones that are being target marketed at the dot-mil types, reports CNBC.
This raises all kinds of questions, not the least of which is “Could DNA targetted weapons be on the horizon? (*This Bug’s for you, kind of thing?)
At our age (70’s) it’s a “who cares…” But if younger, we’d be far more controlling of all our personal data. For now, when you pass 70, your data value will decline quickly. Especially if you have enough axious heirs around to defend family interests thereafter./
Asian Food Decline?
I don’t remember if it was here (free) or on the high-roller’s Peoplenomics ($40/year) side that I mentioned that stir fry seemed to be declining in popularity.
What, you say it was that Sunday piece on cooking? OK, then.\
Here’s another gastronomic oddity: Seems like Chinese restaurants are closing down around the country, and have been for the past 5-years says the NY Times report over here. That’s won ton of closures, as we see it.
Merry and Happy…
Have a dandy resynchronizing with the Almighty – since that’s what holidays were nominally based-on. Before it became a financial event.
Looking ahead: One of Ham Radio’s coolest nights of the year is a week from tonight. We get out our tube-type equipment and use a hand key to send NY greets worldwide. Open to suggestions from ham/readers as to what frequency we should be on – 40 or 80-meters and a time? (I could gin-up a “Worked UrbanSurvival Certificate” for the event…)
Thursday night: Been invited to be on Coast to Coast AM with George Noory, always a lot of fun. Since I’ll be up late, be sure to drop by for Friday morning’s column to see how coherent I can remain after an all-nighter…
Rest well tonight, too, knowing Peoplenomics charts should be there tomorrow and firefighter/EMT son G2 is on duty tonight up in Leavenworth, WA. Thanks to all of our fire, police, emergency medical, and US military for keeping things orderly until Boxing Day…
Write when you get rich,