Sell in May vs. Holiday & Durable Data

We are likely to see a decent-sized rally in the market at  the open this morning:  Despite weak Durable’s.  The futures were pointing well up and a survey of the Rest of World (RoW) points to a nice bounce-back.

In Asia, for example, the Hang Send was up 0.32%.  While Japan was down fractionally, Europe is “wentgreen” today with gains turning the futures boards mostly positive.

It hasn’t been a bad week for our “Wild Man Trading” idea, either.  If things go as hoped, we may notch out about 2-2-1/2% for the week which is (more or less) the plan.

You see, lately I’ve been infatuated with low-risk trading and the idea of make 2-3 low-risk trades during the week.  Let’s say we get lucky and pull out at today’s target levels.  The week might come in around 2.42%.  Hardly anything to write home about.

Except!  The magic of compounding.

If you actual could do that (2.42% weekly) consistently for 50-weeks out of the year, you’d have 3.3-times your stake in a year’s time.  Of course, you’d be loved by your brokerage firm.

Since there might be some weeks where risk-averse would mean more than 3- day trades in 5-business days, you could be called upon to maintain a $25,000 balance in your account.  Still, it’s an interesting game to play – cheaper than going to Las Vegas and no group gropes at the airport.

We would NEVER recommend this kind of thing to anyone in their right mind, but for those who are addicted to transactions, it’s fun.

Which gets us to the Durable Goods report hot off the Census website:

Dow futures chilled to +124 after the data.

After today’s bounce?  National Survey: Waning Seller’s Market for Sale of Small Businesses Signals a Peak in the Market.

What makes today so damn interesting is that we are at the confluence of “Sell in May and Go Away” versus a quasi-normal market bias to the upside because it’s a three-day weekend.

As a result, our dart this morning landed on the “up through noon, but fade the rally late” box.  But, we shall see how that goes and whether Wild Man Trading will hit the same recylce bin as other hare-brained ideas we’ve hand.

Trippin’ the Headlines Fantastic

Let’s see what we can “stub  our brains on” today, shall we?

In our “Look Surprised” files: “Bipartisan bill to help employers ease student loan debt held up by politics.”

Pelosi Has Plenty of Reasons Not to Impeach Trump, reports Fortune.

Russia Condemns US “Warships” Off Venezuela’s Coast – Says Coup Attempts Ongoing.”

Kneeler politics: Theresa May’s departure marks the launch of leadership election; Boris Johnson the early favorite to become next PM.

Gas Price Alert: Summer Road Trip Ahead? Gasoline Supply Crunch Means You Should Beware at the Pump

Next Book Unveiling

We will be writing a book about America’s alt.future and serializing it on our side.  Details tomorrow for subscribers, but let’s just say this one is of extreme interest to Millennials because it should be a serviceable road map to the future.

Tomorrow, the table of contents, introduction, and maybe (depending on how fast the fingers fly) the first chapter as well.  I wrote one of the later chapters Thursday.  Writing as a mere 2,500 words per hour (presentable draft mode) isn’t the problem so much as sticking to the plot and not getting side-tracked.

Around the Ranch/Over the Fence

Pussy-footing around: Zeus the Cat is still “love sick.”  The feral girl kitty he has been pal’ing around with is starting to eat a bit when
Elaine feeds her.  Damn skitterish yet.

Swamp Cooler Testing:  We will be conducting more experiments in Old Man Labs this weekend now that the humidity is dropping toward summertime norms.  The experiment?  Got an evaporative use in the shop.  Thing is, I love working in the shop (year-round) but when the temp is over 85 (or so) my output is low and I find myself taking breaks to cool down in the office.  72-F and 44% humidity more of the time.

There’s been a lot of debate back and forth over how swamp cooling works here in Zone C on most charts.  If the swamp cooler can keep the workbench in the 80-F range with 75% humidity when it’s 100-F outside, that’s be just fine.  The cost of running “real A/C” would be ridiculous.  So, we’re testing this approach.  A/C to cool the shop would draw about 14-amps.  Swamp cooler draws 2.4 amps, so a lot smaller bite on the energy side.

I hate doing half-ass articles without “instrumentation and data” so if you want a nifty way to track how your “actual weather” (less the hype) is going and you have $11.59 each burning a hople in your pocket, load up on these guys:  “AcuRite 00613 Indoor Thermometer & Hygrometer with Humidity Gauge”

A fair number of people I’ve studied use swamp coolers for greenhouses.  They won’t “over-chill” the plants but they will keep a greenhouse cool-enough so the “leafy vegetable matter” won’t wilt.  Adjustable jungle, anyone?

Tornado Climate Idiocy:  When the media starts linking recent tornadoes to “climate change” simply sit back and take a chill..  The average year (1991-2010) sees 1,253 tornadoes.

I find it a bit disingenuous of the NY Times to run with “Storms Leave Trail of Debris and Waterlogged Cities” and put in “The link between tornadoes and climate change is uncertain.” and then put in 3 paragraphs justifying while it MIGHT b e true including links to old data.  WTF?  News or selling a business model?

The running Wikipedia summary here shows only 516 confirmed YTD.  Where the hell is the “climate change” in that?  Ure in NOT alone ins understandable-skepticism (US/US):  AOC called out by meteorologist after linking DC tornado warning to climate change.

AOC knows as all socialists (commie-lites) do that people vote recall, not content or action in politics…)  Which is why there’s BS – Bernie – too.

Climate idiocy is contagious, though:  School students walk out in global climate strike.

It’s Just the Damn Weather!  Millions brace for severe weather ahead of Memorial Day.

Where Moe?  This morning (or tomorrow) is “lawn day.”  Other than slow leaks in tires and a new belt and plans for a better sway bar on the mower deck, we’re coming up on 10-years on the riding mower and praying for another decade of use.

Doing a last “weed burner” attack on the garden prior to Elaine doing some transplanting out of the green house this weekend.

Elaine’s also made a decision not to feed the humming birds this year.  For one, I can’t imagine them getting anything good outy of sugar water (but they seem to).  More of a concern is the fire ants, wasps, and all other manner of buggery shows up for the sugar water, too.  I’m letting the rag weed & thistles that bloom early survive until they are just ready to go to seed.  No sign of our “Remembrance Garden” sprouting yet, but should be along shortly as the ground temps have come up.

Fire ants are popping out all over the place, regardless.  Too much rain so far this year, climate nonsense aside.  29.8-inches so far.  No worries about drought. Last year at this time, we were at 21.21-inches so running a bit wetter than normal’s.

OK, side to “saddle-up and ride” pahd-nah.  Moron the ‘morrow but we still aren’t sure about Monday.

15 thoughts on “Sell in May vs. Holiday & Durable Data”

  1. Have a great, relaxing and peaceful Memorial weekend George and Elaine. And take Monday off from Urban S. You deserve it!

  2. “There’s been a lot of debate back and forth over how swamp cooling works here in Zone C on most charts. If the swamp cooler can keep the workbench in the 80-F range with 75% humidity when it’s 100-F outside,”

    OMG George…. check out COOLERADO….

    years ago when they won the awards for being the most efficient swamp cooler.. I had to know.. so I yaked for a couple of hours with the gentleman that originally had the idea.. a genius.. moisture stays outside dry air inside..

    If they would sell them here.. I would own one in a heart beat.. for high humidity environments a dehumidifier on the out take… wonderful product.. now considering that for a moment.. swamp cooler with a dehumidifier idea..Then make an air well out of the dehumidifier side… simple perfect get nice pure drinking water and cool the house down for less than two kw per hour energy usage…I think it is someplace around six hundred watts an hour.. where a conventional old style air is sitting around ten kw per hour..

    They have me sold..

    If not then get a solar air conditioning unit.. use the sun to power and cool.. again the same price as a conventional air conditioner .. but none of the usual power consumption..

    My thoughts are the original coolerado corporation didn’t market the product.. I guess they just didn’t have enough faith in it to push sales.. even though malls all over the USA have been using swamp cooling techniques for years and years…


    solar air.. I was going to build one.. then found out they make them already.. usually sold outside the US… I wonder if congress doesn’t have a hand in holding those products from the consumers as well..

  3. I say take Monday off. We will all be doing things with the family, sleeping in or going out to the lake. Let Monday be the holiday it is intended to be. Praise a Vet. Call the one’s you know and thank them for their service. Gather your family around as much as possible and let them know what it means to be an American. Let them know how many countries we have saved from Totalitarianism, Communism and other despicable “isms”.

    Let them know that despite what they have heard from the leftist media, and other Democrat propaganda we are the greatest country on the face of the earth. That despite what Barrack Obama said as president we are “Exceptional”.

    The men and women who have fought and died through the centuries, from the revolutionary war to Afghanistan, from the Civil War to Iraq. We have been freeing people, helping people and doing good in the world.

    We have been God loving, God fearing and God centered people. Our history, if really looked at without the revisionists versions, shows our compassion, caring and love for mankind. It shows our love for our country and our willingness to fight for what we believe and to help others all around this globe.

    God bless those that have served this noble country, for their sacrifices and hard work to keep us a free nation. Happy Memorial Day George!!!

    • I agree Wayne… George I hope you and Elaine have a wonderful weekend.. I personally am slow smoking an aged roast.. its going to be tasty..

      “take Monday off. We will all be doing things with the family, sleeping in or going out to the lake”

      except for the everyone will be taking a day off.. for the other end of the economic spectrum.. its just another day in paradise in the working class..people would fall over dead if the shops all closed.. LOL LOL

      I went what close to forty years without ever having one holliday off… LOL LOL just the fate of the working class..
      Its also why a great number of those in my faith feel as if I don’t have as much faith.. they couldn’t ever wrap themselves around the fact that your employer doesn’t give a shiny penny over what the church wants.. thats why my OBIT reads.. ( if the kids will let it go)

      He went on vacation wants to let everyone know he loves them very much and hopes that the temperatures will be moderate. Hopes to see everyone again at some point in time..

      anyone that knows me knows there never was vacation and will ask no services.. if they don’t want to visit with me before then why in the hell should they come visiting after..the ones that do afterwards get to gether get a keg and go down to the pizza ranch have a great time tell stories laugh let the kids play on the machines..

  4. A swamp cooler will work for you in your area as long as you are sitting in the fan airflow. Away from it, just still and muggy.
    And be sure to open a window a couple inches across the room to allow good inflow by the swamper.
    Also, if using well water, over a couple seasons the pads and pump will begin to get minerals collecting and need replacement.
    They work much better, as you know, in a desert climate.

  5. George

    “Fire ants are popping out all over the place, regardless.’

    Three methods I use to get rid of them.

    1. Use Amdro bait. It works very well but is pricey.

    2. Pour a circle of bleach around the ant pile. The bleach will out gas
    and do them in. Cheaper than Amdro if you control how much you
    use. Do this when no wind is present.

    3. Burn them out with some diesel. This requires you stick around to
    be a fire watch.

    You should patrol the perimeter of your house on a regular basis to check for nests. I have had them find a way in and start to build a nest on my bed. No fun and a job to get rid of all of them!

    Get rid of all you find. Remember fire ants can be deadly to the elderly and bed ridden.

  6. Accept that most times there are “conflicts of interest” involved (for each and everyone!) in life’s game ;-).

  7. “You see, lately I’ve been infatuated with low-risk trading and the idea of make 2-3 low-risk trades during the week. Let’s say we get lucky and pull out at today’s target levels. The week might come in around 2.42%. Hardly anything to write home about.”

    I disagree about “Hardly anything to write home about.” In all my long life I’ve only known one person that could do it and he’ll turn 43 mext week.

    I’d classify this as GENIOUS though I’m no longer agile enough to follow his leads ;-(. However, some people are more than brilliant, and that’s why capitalism wins.

    But when some capitalists get $5,000 a day for pension they help manufacture “the rope they’ll get hung on.”

  8. A few things.

    #1. Bitcoin is not the next Microsoft, google, apple. Thise companies were built by men who had real names, addresses, backgrounds and not some made up acronym anonymous name of a person nobody knows who they are, where they live, and has no background or reputation.
    Holding over a million Bitcoins. Getting uber rich off a figazi

    Democrat has both Demo short term for demolition and RAT in it.

    Think! Think about it!

    • I saw a guy win $70,000 in 20 jackpots one day on a single slot machine. Had a HUGE crowd around him all day. All amazed!!! House kept giving him free drinks. The slot services were freaking out!. So i went and ran the numbers. He spent $120k to win $70k!!!! And you could not convince him or any of the onlookers he wasnt winning!

      Winning isnt about feeling good. Its about the bottom line and rate of return.

      Repeat after me, “Bitcoin is a beta test. Its just a slot machine.”

      Im a bear in bear season and a bull in bull season. Im neither a pragmatist, a n optimist nor pessimist. Im an opportunist! Im not a Democrat nor Republican im a depublican!

      Please do yourself a favor, take a step back and a deep breath and ask yourself. What is the Universe trying to tell me. What is the data? What is real and what is hype? What is my emotional attachment to this situation, event, thing or person? Evaluate yourself and your responses emotionally.

  9. Your comment on Global Warming is interesting and obviously disconnected with the mantra up here in the Great White North. The Communist Government is so deluded that this week we had a press release that stated;
    1) The wild fires in Western Canada-Global Warming
    2) 2-100 year floods in three years on the Ottawa River system-Global Warming
    3) The high price for food in the Arctic Region-Global Warming

    Indications are that the upcoming Federal election will be a bellwether on this facade and should result in for better or worse our version of Trump. There is no plausible explanation as to why the current government is so disconnected with how it’s killing any manufacturing industry and why it’s not possible to hide $5-6 per gallon of gasoline when you fill-er-up!

  10. NM Mike, “2017 at 12:41

    All true. I’d also add that if sufficient BTC are owned by entities working in concert, it might be possible to corrupt and/or control the blockchain. I’m no expert on this, but would welcome more experienced minds speaking to this. We know that many BTC’s have been lost, stolen, looted or whatever, but are they gone forever? I think there’s more to maintaining the blockchain than I’m privy to.

    ********[If inflation was let loose in dollars via the Fed, it might be possible to control it though planned takedowns of BTC. Just wondering.]”

    I just was wondeing the exact quote in the bracket this evening. I thought i had seen it before.

    Good ponder NW Mike, Blast from the past!!!!

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