You may (or may not, who knows?) have seen my note yesterday about how we “ought to see a rally” in markets – and it could be a smoker today. Because Retail Sales will drop Monday. Which could (in our delusional view) trigger the Fed to actually raise – not lower – rates on a short-term “emergency basis” because the economy is on the verge of getting out of control.
I know it has been said that “The News doesn’t drive the Markets.” I have a serious bone to pick with that assertion, but some discussion is warranted.
Yes – we have “news” today. And like this morning’s Trade dope (we’ll get there, hang one) it comes in five sizes. Minor news, mid-sized news, Big News and “No one gives a shit.” At the extreme (#5 if you’re counting) is the “OMFG!!!!” size. (I should really save this for a PN column, but we’ll be digging into treasure hunting next week, so here goes…)
The Discounted Future
The reason I write this column every morning is because I like to know what’s probably going to happen – in advance. To do this, as a long-time journalist, I got in the habit (from 1970, or so) of trying to “predict to myself” what would be the logical next steps to Event Chains. (Come on, people, it ain’t that hard…)
In order to have a reasonable expectation (hopefully you can get good enough at futuring to pick “the likely future” and then drop some money on the Pass (or Don’t Pass) line. Which is what makes “News as a craps table you can bet on.”
Frankly, if you are not betting on news flows, I think you could turn off all your electronica and have a nice life. Because there is little to no point in reading 380-words daily of Trump hate, or War Spew unless you can make a buck on it. Maybe you have time to waste in Life, but I sure don’t.
Look: One good “hit” using “news projecting” can net you, oh, let’s use 4 percent in a week. (That’s where we are before we decide how to “play Monday when Retail” hits.) At this rate, you could make 7.68 times your money per year; though less if you take off some time to spend it.
To show you how Future rolls (and why it matters), let’s file this morning’s tear-down of the wires into neat little piles – the five we described earlier, smallest impacting to largest. Ready?
“No one Gives a Rip”
- US issues travel advisory for Israel (rtklive.com). I wasn’t going to the Holy Lands, and unless you were (or had relatives) this is tiny stuff.
- Another example? Apple’s first AI-focused M4 Macs are on the way just months after the M3 debuted, and they’ll reportedly launch this year. Apple makes OK products, but their herd marketing is amazing. We simply don’t do herd anything.
- And the NY Post keeps both ends of the news spectrum covered with Baby penguins filmed diving off 50-foot cliff for first ever swim, unprecedented footage shows (nypost.com). (Surely, you don’t give a shit, do you?)
“Small News”
- Russian hackers used Microsoft access to steal government emails (verdict.co.uk). We call this news (and you might, too) because when you are using Big Data, all that digital crap needs a holding tank. OK, yes, you can use Access to hold the crap. But, Grady and I used Visual FoxPro 9, I seem to recall Clif High used SQL/Prolog, and anyone can use any (quarriable) database to hold the slop before distilling into useful intel. Unless you happen to use Access and are thinking about a different kind of data holding tank, no shock or awe to this. PC-File dB, anyone? Us old schoolers loved Buttonware especially later as a dBase clone.
- Need a filler news, small item? OJ Simpson: New York Times sparks outcry for saying ‘his world was ruined’ by murder trial. We have talked about the American propensity to “trade on the Dead” (as long as their name/recall is hot enough) before.
“Medium-Sized News”
Almost to the interesting stuff…hang in there.
- US, Japan, Philippines hold historic summit on South China Sea tensions – World News | The Financial Express. Yes, but they were doing this earlier, so this is only a “progress check” (not some huge breakthrough in China relations in queue).
- Johnson embraces Trump as threat to oust him from speakership looms. Medium-sized with a tailwind only. Johnson is, at his core, just another me-too political kiss-ass looking to extend his personal brand, as we see it.
- Biden cancels student debt for 276,000 borrowers – NECN. Only medium sized because? Well, we already knew Biden was an Obama puppet, giving out money to the socialist agenda crowd, and since he hasn’t been indicted yet. he’s still able to piss-away free lunch money. Interesting chess move, but not big meter moving new knowledge.
“Big News”
Some of this we knew, some is new.
- Video: Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib Was Asked To Condemn ‘Death to America’ Chants In Her District – Her Response Raises Eyebrows! Tell me again, why hasn’t she been censured?
- The Plan to Drop Disease X and keep the Chemtrails going continues unimpeded: States lead in blocking Fed/UN/WHO edicts, weather modification | Canada Free Press
- NOW he says it? Fired Top FBI Official Concedes ‘Many Mistakes’ In Trump FISA Scandal. Naw, really?
- Is the Death Watch for Wokness at hand? Harvard’s Eureka Moment: Discovers Standardized Test Scores Can Predict Success, Reverts to Sanity.
- And after all the conspiracy theorys from the Marxists, ‘Charming’ Melania schmoozes guests at Trump fundraiser (pagesix.com).
- And the Tax Loophole the EV crowd loves may be coming to an end (remember: who paid the gas taxes to pave the roads that EVs run on…) California’s Solo Drivers With EVs, Hybrids May Get Booted From Carpool Lanes After Next Year. Not a fricking chance. Commies don’t go after climateer stooges! (Hybrids are the under, unless your world is warehouse-sized.)
“OMFG” News
Easy:
- “You see where George Ure nailed the gold and silver action overnight?”
(Bows). Yep. Told you gold $2,400+ and silver $29.00.
Runner-up: “Signal” for Russian attack on Kharkiv with four Army Corps: Military leadership rushed to the city with V.Zelensky – What is Moscow’s plan. This comes as Germany Deploys Permanent Brigade to Lithuania, First Since WWII. And hold the cue cards steady so this guy can read ’em: NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warns an ‘alliance of authoritarian powers’ including Russia, Iran and China are working against the West.
Welding goggles at the ready, of course. But the odds of war this weekend are not too high. Except in Israel where people have been hearing “Attack in 48-hours now) for what, a week and some?
One Actual Story?
Sure…why not? Trade data anyone?
“Imports
U.S. import prices increased for the third consecutive month in March, advancing 1.4 percent over the first quarter of 2024. The quarterly increase was the largest 3-month rise since the index rose 3.9 percent from February to May 2022. Prices for U.S. imports advanced 0.4 percent for the year ended in March, the first 12-month increase since January 2023.”
Oh, wring your hands! Market down 20 on the S&P and down a hunsky on the Dow. Mid-day miracle rally, anyone?
Here, isn’t this an exciting chart?
Another nitro pill, only if you need it.
This is a minor number; people have gone to sleep for weeks just reading it…so it will be used to send the market lower in the pre-open. But our money is “on the news of Retail come Monday” to drive the markets up into the close today.
Oh, and those stories about how “news” doesn’t drive markets? I have been looking for actual data on this, but the odds are nearing 100 percent that “Discounting the News” is what drives markets. As we’ve learned over the years, if you want to make money, figure out the market moves in advance and roll with those.
Did I Forget Something?
Don’t know what it could possibly be… hmm. Unless you were referring to only minor changes in the new unemployment filings for the week. If you didn’t do yours online, here’s what was going down nationally:
Why. the only joy from filing in person (instead of online) is the Covid risk, parking meters gambles, and meeting with other, downtrodden victims of the socialist hijacking of the America Dream…
(anyone remember that?)
Around the Ranch: ShopTalk Returns
A collection of sticky-notes today.
ShopTalk Sunday is returning to UrbanSurvival. It had been over at Ultra-Make.com but Goofle didn’t think it was good/big enough to sell ads on. Andc Ure tries not to work free. Cheap? Sure…
“George, what day is ShopTalk Sunday posted?”
Rains ended in E. Texas. With that, septics are happy again. BUTT several readers suggested non-sewer, non-septic answers. They come in a couple of styles: True composting BUTT that may not work in super cold climes. And then there’s the 2,500 – 3,500 watt electric toilets which work on the principle of poo cooking.. Not to be confused with the US Public Debt to the Penny.
Ordered >$150 worth of research materials on Treasure Hunting. If you guessed “George must have a hair up his butt researching for an oncoming Peoplenomics report…” (God, you’re smart.)
One ADHD Tip that works: I have been using my son’s “Do 3 Things” approach to optimizing his personal productivity. I mean I think I’m productive. Lately, been munching on: ADHD Cleaning Hacks: Proven Strategies and Actionable Checklists for a Calmer Home and Mind.”
Still haven’t had time to finish Cal Newport’s newest book: Slow Productivity: The Lost Art of Accomplishment Without Burnout. I take it as an encouraging sign that I have mastered the Slow part.
And the Ecuador Expat deserves a serious nod for sending me this:
“Tucker Carlson just interviewed a German doctor who, for the last 10 years, has attempted to publish his research/practice results that shows that the appropriate dosage of lithium orotate and vitamin D prevents and has CURED Alzheimer’s. And eliminates the “brain fog” from “long COVID.”
He is German. His name is Michael Nehls. He’s a medical doctor, a physician. He’s a molecular geneticist, and he’s written what seems to be an amazing new book called The Indoctrinated Brain How to Successfully Fend off the Global Attack on Your Mental Freedom.”
Oh boy, right? I mean this is the path I was on years ago and wrote about trace lithium on a Peoplenomics report.
BUTT – after I scanned the book nothing – bupkiss – on lithium.
BUTT – yes, he Dr. Nehl has a German website and tons of info on dementia and Alzheimer’s may be found here. FAQ » Michael Nehls (michael–nehls-de.translate.goog)
Naturally, none of this is medical advice. Tell us you’re not that stupid. On the other hand, this is on the net and giving our oen APOE4 alleles, we thought you’d want to know.
I mean, who do you think we are, anyway? The FDA. or something?
Write when you get rich(er)
George@Ure.net
Software security mountebanks?
Mainframe 1960s mentality ?
NSA solved the secure app issue in ~1980?
Only a secure app allowed on a hardware platform.
All other binaries regarded as potential malware …
and zeroed by the secure app.
My 5 day/ 20 day SPY one year daily chart has crossed over significantly this week. Is this for real????
Nice observation. Looks like it just crossed over week of 4/8/2024. I’m currently short but my confidence level is neutral at this point. Have to see what today (weekly close) brings to change my mind.
Funny you bring up vitamin D, my orthopedist insisted on an increase of vitamin D after my jones break. He mentioned that a whole lot of research was about to break about its benefits and wouldn’t be surprised if it became a normative go to for a whole bunch of ailments.
Good doctoring on hiz part, yessir.
The “News” may not drive the markets, but only indicate short-term reactionary sympoms (“Pop” mind) — BUT! The persistent tempo and tone of the times definitely drive all markets. Which way, why, and how much, become the questions.
“Shop Talk” shouldn’t be forced. There may not be a hit project of the week. Let reality drive the content.
“Always maintain an even strain.”
Proven Strategies and Actionable Checklists for a Calmer Home and Mind.
.
Arrggg !! One more damn “check-list” for a better life and I will personally come down there and piss on your tomato plants !!
.
Have you ever noticed that people who make up these “check lists” are some of the most miserable people on the planet with a divorce rate higher then Mickey Rooney !?
.
Moses brought down a couple of tablets from the mount, though rumor has it that there were actually three tablets, but he dropped one.., they contained a ten step “check-list” – for all mankind – and look how well that has worked out !
.
Want a check list for a calmer – better life? Here ya go:
1] Sit the hell down
2] Shut the fu*k up
3] And listen to the life around you
[ sipping a double bourbon during stage three above is, of course, optional, but highly recommended.]
d’Lynn: comments are priceless!
LOL! I was an engineering manager at a TV station once, and I knew the things I had to check and get done, including some legal logging for the FCC. I had an owner/boss who was a chronic micromanager who kept interrupting me to do ‘his stuff’ all the time, to the point that I was not getting my ‘legal stuff’ done. I told him this flat out. His response was to tell me to make a list of things I was not getting done. I quit the next day.
I made a list of 1.1 through 1.9 for items that needed to be inserted between your #1 and #2 … and an additional list of 2.1 though 2.9 including subsections A, B and C for items that needed to be inserted between you #2 and #3.
Alas at that point in time I started drinking a glass of wine and accidentally erased my wonderful post. I certainly hope you will forgive me.
(“I will personally come down there and piss on your tomato plants !!”)
OTFLMAO…. I thought that was why the president and ninety proof nancy wanted the open borders for… so the refugees could come in and piss on our lettuce and tomatoes LOL LOL LOL
Is something awful about to happen?
While it wasn’t clear what sparked the buying frenzy, UBS’ trading desk notes that “gold futures gapped up $10 as they traded through Thursday’s high on what felt like stop losses being triggered; 0.5moz of futures volume were behind the move.”
What happens next is also unclear, although as we showed moments before the breakout, the current divergence between gold prices and 10Y real rates, suggests that something awful is about to happen…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/godl-precious-metal-soars-above-2400-after-sudden-gap-higher
Gregory Mannarino/Traderschoice.net: Major False Flag Is Now Imminent!
https://youtu.be/4teCUs_4EFk?si=py5JqbFxlqdDW7Hk
April 19/20/21… Hell on Earth?
Pardon my ignorance – but how can it be a “False Flag” event – but also – “Hell on Earth” – ??
– Help a fella out…,
April 19/20/21 is separate or maybe connected to a false flag, George told us a while back to ‘mark the calendar’, so to speak.
And then we have…
https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2019/04/17/bloody-april-19th-and-april-20th/
G.A. STEWART: Since 2008, I have noticed many blogs referring to the inordinate amount of bloodshed and carnage that has occurred throughout history on April 19th and April 20th. I pioneered this research, and it first appeared on my website in 2008.
April 19th is the occult day of The Blood Sacrifice to the Beast. This begins the 13-day countdown to the second most sacred day for Satanists, The Beltaine Festival on May 1st, which requires a “fire sacrifice”.
April 20th is Adolf Hitler’s birthday. I discovered this sacrificial two-day period while I was trying to interpret Nostradamus Quatrain I-42. It was the long bloody history prior to Adolf Hitler’s April 20th, 1889 birthday that I found so intriguing and that lends credence to its occult origins.
https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2019/04/17/bloody-april-19th-and-april-20th/
Not that I’m trying to be a “bad scoreboard” watcher but my next target date is 4-22 so it wouldn’t surprise me if the FFE occurred right before that.
My next “windows” are 6-1 and 6-11 respectively……
Nostradamus and The Third Age of Mars 2024: Version 1.1 – 818 All Rights Reserved G. A. Stewart LLC
Nostradamus and the Age of Desolation, G. A. Stewart, 2013, Page 533
With nearly one hundred thousand Israeli troops standing outside the gates of Gaza and along Israel’s northern border, if Israeli Defense Forces do decide to invade and a weapon of mass destruction does explode, people around the world will then understand that life has changed forever.
When I suggested that a weapon of mass destruction may be used in Nablus, a major Palestinian city on the West Bank, it now seems likely that this The First Blow of Steel will be part of some retaliation against Israel. Nostradamus seems to point to a person from Egypt; however, metaphors can be allusive. He mentions The Crocodile, and since crocodiles have a long association with the Nile River, this points to Egypt.
This event will destroy the global economy and initiate a major Middle Eastern war that leads to The Battle of Armageddon and the conquest of Israel.
_________________________________________________
Pretty damn good call for…um… what, 11 years ago?
April 17, 2019
G.A. STEWART: The Internet is filled with stories that the fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris was arson. It is all very symbolic, and that is why I thought of Nostradamus’ Pagan Sect of New Infidels immediately.
Today, on George Ure’s website he asked, “The fire got me to wondering: Has open spiritual warfare now been set on the world?“
Yes, sir. That is what it is all about. That is why they call it prophecy. Prophecy tells us God is still out there.
https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2019/04/17/bloody-april-19th-and-april-20th/
When I first read the phrase: “The First Blow of Steel”., without finishing the rest of the sentence, the first thing that came to my mind was the sound that a five pound ball peen hammer makes when it hits the steel anvil. It is a very unique sound, found rarely anywhere else. Then.., I read the rest of the paragraph. .., and my loud “Ping!” was drowned-out.
Wonder how much loud blowing up “Russia hits underground gas reserves in the Ukraine mushroom-cloud from fierce explosion.” as shown Hal Turner’s site/
” It’s fair to say that the gold market has fired its warning shot.”
Ecuador – not a place I want to be, or visit.
The following link is a story of the fall of Ecuador due to the massive drug trade and gang violence. Sounds absolutely horrible.
.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-narco-revolt-takes-a-once-peaceful-nation-to-the-brink/ar-BB1lvd3B?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=c14a05bd4c794f07df2426ec063ca149&ei=77
Curously, our correspondent up in Vilcabamba went there to avoid those very things he thought were coming to the US. He isn’t wrong yet…
Third world country – with gangs having more money than their treasury – and more guns than their army – and with an I.Q. lower than their belt size – what could possibly go wrong ??
– Great place to be from – far away from…..,
Yo d,
Majority of em have already left their home 3rd worlds,and courtesy of your tax dollars, flown in to a neighborhood near you. saint AOC and rest of demonrats thank you for Ure generous largesse,even though they think of you as less than Obama..unh I mean dog scheisse.
Well.., I am out. The DJIA is down another 500+ points..,
Three very good, excellent, well-done and highly profitable trades this week.
– Now – the close and what will Monday bring us LMGS ?
[Lunch Money Gamblers Society.]
if a small nuke exchange takes place im guessing limit down on Monday and then the panic ensues – or let the market go up a few days and trap even more folks ………
There won’t be a “small nuke exchange” unless it is strictly regional and between small powers, like Iran and Israel or India and Pakistan. ANYTHING which involves China, France, Russia, the UK, or the US, and deflagrating fission is a near-extinction-level event. Animals (including people), regardless of where they live, will survive by chance, not by skill or preparation. In either case, if the market still exists, it will probably go to zero.
re: Homer at the White House
feat: Mr. Burns
Folks,
It’s only week 4 of the baseball season, but who’s on first? Judging by msm reporting on the surveillance bill renewal vote in the House, CIA Director Mr. Burns is back in Washington. This after his most recent publicly reported diplomatic finesse manouvers in Egypt between emissaries of Hamas and the head of Mossad. The Secretary of State Mr. Blinken was otherwise detained with shuttle diplomacy by car between Paris and Brussels after his aeroplane suffered mechanical malfunction on Terra Firma.
The State Department public schedule started early today at 8:00 am with the Secretary meeting his visiting counterpart from the Philippines. His Assistant Secretary will be working late Friday night with an 8:00 pm engagement. Meanwhile at the White House, the daily briefing was to be delivered at 12:00 pm. Departure for Rehoboth Beach is scheduled for 5:15 pm. One looks forward to DJ George’s “Beach Boys” setlist for the drive into the weekend.
My local library has an ebook of Mr. Burn’s 2019 tome. The early going on “The Back Channel – a memoir of American diplomacy and the case for its renewal” suggests that the author is no ally of Mr. Trump, diplomatically speaking of course.
Oh, those cliff diving baby penguins are just awesome. They remind me of day traders at the opening bell.
Iran has., once again., warned the U.S. to stay out of their fight with Israel. ., as the U.S. and U.K. security councils issues a warning that an attack from Iran on Israel is imminent in the next 48 hours. Israel announced that they finished with plans for a counter-attack if Iran launches an attack against their nation. [ While “hinting” at several other “targets of interest”. ] Lebanon is screaming at and threatening Syria for the attacks that killed their citizens. Letters found in Gaza from the, now dead, military leader of the terrorist organization, Hamas shows that Iran gave them over $249 million dollars just weeks before the attack on Israel.
United Airlines is offering a 30% discount for all flights to Israel. Any takers?
Hell, I won’t fly Untied (sic) Airlines anywhere, at any price or even free. They lost my business years ago. It was sad when they took over Continental Airlines and that world-grid logo. Continental was a class act here in the Pacific.
We just mobilized an army, and will likely have 40,000 troops in Israel before the lamestream mentions it…
Sadly I know some that were mobilized..I pray for their safety and secure return home.
“… the odds of war this weekend are not too high. Except in Israel where people have been hearing “Attack in 48-hours now) for what, a week and some?”
Iran is regrouping …
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-blames-un-security-council-inaction-what-might-come-next
About a week or so ago, Iran asked the US to kindly step aside BUT, Biden stuck his (our) foot in. Unfortunately, this ain’t the Hokey Pokey … it’s war with real consequences.
Iran going back to revise things, is NOT good. I’m sure they plan to “build back better” to coin a phrase and, probably do much more damage.
That, was the “OMFG NEWS” for me this morning.
Mr. Obama is not the brightest bulb on the tree, but he’s a focused laser, compared to Mr. Biden.
Joe Biden “has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.”
“Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to fuck things up.”
Remember…?
And these were quotes from fellow Democrats, who were “being nice” (or at least diplomatic) in their commentary.
Biden surrounded himself with “equity hires,” none of whom have a modicum of competence or common sense, and all of whom are agenda-driven.
The Administration is “pro-Iran” but the Jewish voting bloc is far larger than the Muslim and Iranian voting blocs. Both demographics are overwhelmingly Democrat supporters and Joe, rather than even attempting to do the right thing for the Middle East, is trying to figure out a way to game the situation to not lose the support of either voting bloc. For the Dems, keeping political power in the United States is more-important than keeping regional powder kegs from blowing up the world…
re: Ladies Day at Aintree
feat: Revolution Bar
Folks,
It’s not 1/6, but the “Daily Mail” notes that tomorrow’s 176th running of The Grand National steeplechase at Aintree will feature a “ring of steel” about the racecourse for the first time ever. Apparently tptb do not wish a repeat of last year’s protest by “Animal Rising” which incurred a 15 minute delay to the start.
Clerk of the course Mr. Sulekha Varma warns the course may “ride dead” today due no rain fell overnight. Msm morning images featured a bevy of lovely lasses decked out for Ladies Day. The adjacent images of the Red Rum Garden Bar and the Revolution Bar menu list offered ‘red rum dark and stormy’ at £13 a sup which could well precipitate memory of moments from Mr. King’s “The Shining”. Afternoon msm coverage migrated to the paddock in front of the main grandstand where scuffles and mayhem had broken out amongst gentlemen in unofficial dress-code suit attire.
One imagines the local constabulary will have things well in hand should the Princess Royal or the Queen Consort visit the boisterous north of England for tomorrow’s main event.
Are we being led to believe Iran waited until after market close before attacking. C’mon.
I was a little surprised.., I got out of my trade when the DJIA cross over 500pts down.., I figured that during the last hour, or so the course would reverse and the index would come back up to around 200 down. Nope – it continued down, at one point hitting -540, or so.., it did come back up right at the end., but still down around 475pts.
Threw my math off somewhat – did not expect that, as it is now down over 1,600 points in ten trading days.
I usually follow and trade the S&P and NASDAQ., but my little math formula showed me that the DJIA was the much weaker of all three indexes. So that’s where I went., and it paid off nicely.
But now what ? Where does Monday take us?
Just a reminder of something I have mentioned in the past: Iran NOW has the amount of enriched uranium necessary for making a bomb. Per the UN this week they now have enough for THREE bombs.
Uranium does NOT have to be enriched to 90%ish in order to make an Uranium Bomb. 60% will do nicely, thank you.
At 60% it does take a LOT more enriched uranium as well as making the package MUCH bigger in order to make the thing go bang, but it will go BANG just the same. About 55kg for 60% as I seem to dimly recall versus about 15kg for 90%. (that is AFTER a 20%+- loss of material as the bomb is made)
If you recall Iran has been openly enriching to a 60% level for years and now has a fair amount of material at that level. There has been fear that somewhere secret Iran has been taking that 60% higher … but since there are virtually no inspections now since the US cancelled the nuclear agreement it is hard to find out just how much exists at 60%, AND, to poke around the country to see if they can find indications of higher levels of enrichment.
Even with virtually NO inspections now going on the UN agency that deals with that stuff THIS WEEK came out with a report that they believe that **** Iran now has enough material for THREE (3) nuclear weapons ****, though they also said it would take 6 months in their opinion to turn that raw material into a bomb. For a sophisticated bomb they said that would add another few moths to that time line.
The main independent group that tracks nuclear proliferation a couple of years ago said that they believed that Iran could turn it’s enriched uranium into a bomb in 90 days, maybe a little shorter, if done on a crash program basis.
The big question: IF Israel goes after the Iranian Bomb Program will they also be able to determine WHERE the already enriched uranium being stored and get that too?
It is impossible to hide where the centrifuges are turning for separating the uranium (forget Colin Powel’s LIES to the UN about that issue) … Centrifuges use LOTS of electricity so all one has to do follow the electrical distribution system and measure how much electricity is flowing through the lines (all you need is a handheld meter held under the lines, say where they cross a road) and one can get a good picture of where they are and how many centrifuges they have running. Those locations and how big they are can be determined easily. Storage afterwards? MUCH more problematic.
Israel is chomping at the bit to go after Iran’s nuclear program … and if they do can they do that with just conventional weapons and tactics … OR will they utilize nuclear weapons to try to take out those deep buried sites?
Is this what the “Israeli Mistake” is? (first use of nuclear weapons)
Still not sure why people keep going on about “Weapons Grade Uranium.” The real question should be “How much Plutonium 239 have they made?” After all it’s Pu 239 that most nuclear weapons are made with.
You need a nuclear reactor to make Plutonium (P-239) … Israel bombed Iran’s only nuclear reactor decades ago and Iran has NOT had a nuclear reactor ever since
It is impossible to “HIDE” a nuclear reactor since they put out into the atmosphere minute particles of residue that drift for hundreds of miles … why we run our “sniffer” planes, modified 707’s, all the time all over the world, we are always tracking all those particles for watching for new nuclear reactors. So when they say Iran does NOT have a nuclear reactor, which everybody agrees on even Israel and the various nuclear watchdogs, they are being truthful.
“IF” you have a nuclear reactor then it is actually easier to get material for making a bomb, using P239, than obtaining uranium and running it through a gaseous diffusion process.
The separation of P239 is a fairly simple chemical extraction process from the used nuclear reactor fuel (the method North Korea has used for it’s weapons – NK has a small reactor), no need for hundreds or thousands of centrifuges and no need for a large electrical system to power them. Just simple chemistry extraction in a small lab.
The problem comes in actually building bomb made with plutonium … it is much more difficult to build a plutonium bomb than an enriched uranium bomb since the plutonium bomb is an implosion bomb which requires the plutonium to be COMPRESSED EVENLY and SIMULTANEOUSLY around it’s entire ball. That was what most of the work at Los Alamos in WW2 centered around … how to build an implosion bomb based on plutonium (the test in New Mexico and the Nagasaki bomb).
The enriched uranium bomb of the type we used at Hiroshima was NEVER tested … it is a very simple bomb and they knew it would work withOUT testing once they had the amount needed calculated and available.
For an enriched uranium bomb all you need to do is to bring enough enriched uranium close together, you do NOT NEED TO COMPRESS IT, and it goes KABOOM (this is the type of bomb Iran would have with it’s enriched uranium).
All they did to make to the Enriched Uranium go BOOM for Hiroshima was to take a sawed off cannon barrel, put a piece of uranium at one end and fire it down the barrel via a regular howitzer explosive at another piece of uranium at the other end of the barrel, and when they two parts came close together the thing would go critical and go BOOM. For the Hiroshima bomb they used a ball of uranium with a circular pyramid type cut out in it and then fired another piece or enriched uranium that was shaped to go into that cutout down a short howitzer barrel so it would go into the other piece and form a spherical ball – once the fired piece made the uranium into sphere the thing would explode, NO compression needed.
Anyway … yet P239 works great (plutonium bomb), if you have a working reactor, chemically extract the plutonium, AND can get the physics right on the implosion and actually can build an implosion device around it that will evenly compress it all the way around. The least distortion in the compression jacket due to timing or due to the explosives not being totally uniform and the thing will just fizzle and NOT go boom.
If you ever go to the Air Force Museum at Wright Patterson AFB they have the spare casings for both WW 2 bombs on display. The Uranium bomb is SMALL and looks in size and shape about like a regular air dropped 500# or 1000# bomb. The Plutonium bomb on the other hand is BIG and rounded, rounded because it had explosives all around it’s plutonium core. So big they had to modify the B-29’s so they could carry the Plutonium bomb, even having to redo the wing carry through structure.
btw … for something really big they also have a spare casing for our first Hydrogen Bomb … and suddenly you will understand why they HAD to build the B-37 (which is MUCH bigger than a B-52). That bomb was the size of a City Bus!!!
One further item of note. The Germans actually produced enough enriched uranium for ONE uranium bomb …. BUT … the scientists then took the enriched uranium and distributed it out to about 15 different locations around the country and kept it out at those remotes locations “for study”. Obviously that was an attempt by the key Germany scientists who figured out the physics to keep the Germans from actually using the enriched uranium that they actually had for making a bomb.
(we had the material for a second uranium bomb which we were going to use on Japan, it would have been about 3 weeks after Nagasaki … after the war that material ended up at the Fermi Lab in Chicago where they nearly had a major accident with it when they got too much of it too close together and it started to go critical … ended up killing the PHD guy who was playing around with it who saved the day, after he screwed up, as he hit it with tool so as to get the uranium parts away from each other. Google “Tickling the Dragon’s Tail”)
Never assume.
I was on the inside of the information loop when we learned Pakistan was “nuclear.”
We learned this when they detonated a test. I have described the reaction within our “intel community” as “profound astonishment.”
Two days later, we learned India was “nuclear,” when they fired off their “test.”
To say this stunned the Beltway would be a gross understatement.
Woolsey convinced Clinton we had become so proficient at electronic spying that we no longer needed human, covert assets. “Humint” should be relegated to office space in our embassies and consulates, and “boots on the ground,” phased out.
I have contended that this policy is the reason we had no idea South-Central Asia was nuclear, until they announced it. IMO it was a demonstration of Clinton’s lack of interest to do the job properly, that he didn’t reverse the CIA policy and fire Woolsey on the spot. I dunno, maybe he was getting a knob-job and those lines in his Daily Briefing were too blurry for him to read? Still, two nations joined the nuclear club in two days, on his watch, and NOBODY in the U.S. government, diplomatic, military, or intelligence communities had the slightest clue that either India or Pakistan even HAD a nuclear program.
Never assume what Iran has, or what its capabilities are. Iran has a space program, and has been putting satellites in geosynchronous orbit since 1996.
It is my deeply-contemplated opinion that unless they are forced to use their nuclear arsenal, neither we, nor any other nation, will know Iran has one, until they have the capability to destroy Israel and EMP CONUS, Canada, and Western Ureup back to the 18th Century, all at the same time, and they’ve begun the process of doing so.
Wonder how many plug and play nukes Iran has purchased on the black market, you know with all that cash bumbo and jobobo gave them.
After reading the “The Making of the Atomic Bomb” many years back, I got the impression that the sciennubce and engineering and triggers for a cannon Uranium device, while more bulky and heavy, were a lot simpler to implement than a plutonium implosion gadget, and would be more suited to a suicide attack by a zealot with limited technical resources. Either will get the job done.