We might as well get Housing data – just out – dispensed with:
Look at the completions track and you’ll see how homebuilding is going balls2 in order to get product out there before the bubble bursts.
Always take Daniel Yergin seriously. When he says the supply chain mess is chopping at the real pillars of the economy, pay very close attention. Might even be worth the $19 bucks on Kindle for his new book “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations.”
With the recent market action, we might anticipate some returning to Earth next week. Hardly anything on deck statistically (unless you get off on Treasury auctions). In fact damn little until next Thursday’s unemployment filings.
Since the U.S. announced additional sanctions on Russia earlier in the day, I was aghast at the lack of content in president Biden’s “address to the Nation” last night. Wholly over-wrought for what it was; kicking out 10 likely spies.
The problem with his ramble, as we saw it, was the lack of clarity for the Russians to assess. From their standpoint, Crimea is their land and Ukraine cutting off water supplies and such, is a real problem Russia must address.
If you think of Ukraine as being Mexico, Texas as the Crimea, and the U.S. in the Russian role, you’ll have a good sense of it.
The now Neocon-re-infected Biden administration is trying to exercise power in the region it really doesn’t have. So, while we wait for the Nostradamus projection of a demented president to light up an Easter war (May 2 is Orthodox Easter) along lines feared by G.A. Stewart to be fulfilled, a steely eyed assessment is in order.
- Ukraine has been tweaking (and turning off water) to the Crimea region that voted to ally with Russia, not Kiev.
- For this morning, there has been an easing in tensions, says Russia. Not turning about weapons headed for the area, but the “rounds count” is down a bit. “Still dangerous” is the pin on this.
- Whether the future gets sketchy is in German, French, and Ukrainian talks ongoing about now.
This could roll any of several directions. International marble-shooting, so we just wait for headlines. Like golf, if we get a few from NATO-wannbe Ukraine that land “in the rough” then things could begin to light up.
For now, Biden’s barely comprehensible bark has been sized up as the: Kremlin Says ‘Good’ That Biden, Like Putin, Wants Dialogue says the Moscow Times.
Until Ukraine stops dinking with the border zone (turning off the water ain’t neighborly) and the potshots stop on both sides, it has the same blow-up potential as Taiwan or a Korean Peninsula war.
War and Crisis Checklist
Which gets us around to checking the other hot spots.
Assume you know that China is doing all manner of military drills – which could be taken by Washington as a forerunner to invasion. That which China sells are “reunification.”
Meanwhile, the chip shortage which has idled a lot of assembly lines globally, looks to get worse because of a drought in Taiwan. This means recovery will be slowed.
Japanese prime minster Yoshihide Suga will me with president Biden today and they will (predictably) talk tough and in support of Taiwan.
But, when push comes to shove, it’s really about a “long sunset of America the Great.” Just now we are seeing how China’s GDP was up more than 18 percent in the past year. Yet the U.S. Media glosses over an economic fact: There is Global Inflation underway.
We will derive a quick “Inflation Adjusted U.S. markets view” on the Peoplenomics side of the house tomorrow. Thing with the baseline 18.3% China GDP report is it gives us a calculation starting point since the G20 members have been more aggressive. Including the U.S. Fed’s 27% hike in M2. Now hidden (along with M1) because the Fed doesn’t want to horror of dollar watering-down to become too obvious.
Other Asses and Assets
Still, we have to wonder whether – in the long wave economic bottoming process – whether Gold will ever get down to its long-projected $900 or lower per ounce? Obviously, if the real rate of inflation is over 2-times (remember, M1 is up over 400%) then $700 gold on a constant dollar basis becomes $2,800 gold in phony “money” terms.
Bitcoin Forecast coming into View:
Not a big drop, but did you happen to notice the BTC was down this morning to the $60,000 level? One reason is that “Bitcoin Price Drops as Turkey Bans Crypto Payments Amid Currency Crisis.”
We have long held that in the end, Bitcoin will be banned by governments globally because they don’t hold “power over people” if they don’t control money.
Which – we project – will mean that as crisis works its way around the world in serial fashion – so will governments outlawing crypto use that’s not officially sanctioned (which means: controlled). To wit, China’s new digital Yuan.
Global Faction Decoder
Oh…and yes…We look at cryptos more and more like a hoodwink of the world into a New World Order’s own currency. Because a case could be made in financial analytics that two “orders” are fighting for global control: One is the old-order “Official Governments” which control people through false-scarcity fiat, since they have squandered gold and silver to back it up.
The Second faction would be the ad hock NWO types who are using BTC and other currency they same way Iran uses Obama-cash: to work a sociopolitical agenda.
This is not on the mental viewport of policymakers, yet. But, give it time: On the Old Order side is “one currency per Nation” while the challenger-newcomer argues “We’re going to flack the old order with Cryptos!”
Because, in the end, they will need a single global currency and if you don’t see cryptos as Global Currency marketing, you should maybe find a more dumbed-down website to read.
The Old Order – the one that runs official governments – will not just sit back and accept a global non-elective with it’s own money and laws of social(ist) behavior. Instead, the Old Order is trying to get first a global agreement on tax (e.g. Yellen’s recent yammers on corporate tax rates). It’s why Biden is so hot-to-trot on climate, too. Climate is the old-order’s new “reason to tax.”
It may see odd, but crime (and its WV cousin politics) have always loved a “good, dirty money” and crypto’s are a wonderful example thereof.
We hold that governments are likely to ban cryptos and offer no conversion to “Old Money’s Game.”
This Makes People Crazy
And what do crazy people do? Act out.
We have a couple of examples for class today:
Mass shooting incident at a FedEx facility in the Midwest. And a man with a gun shot at a
Houston San Antonion (fixing city) airport. (How smart is it to take a gun to an airport – start shooting it – where there is all kinds of security in place? Who does that?
Another way people are “acting out” from the monetary uncertainty is whether to buy a new home, or not. Results, as the Wall St. Journal figures, a major shortage of home buyers. Despite homes being the best investment most people ever make.
It’s hard – selling Reality – when the “duality of the moment” is so cluttered. Look how polarization and duality are being monetized:
- MY sex versus anything else.
- MY race versus anything else.
- My money versus the other choice.
- MY Climate versus Earth’s Climate.
- MY likes (in all manner of things) versus your choices.
Intolerance is on the rise. Interesting to watch, but after a day staring at monitors I shut down the office at 3:15 PM daily – opting for a resveratrol refill (senior R&R) – shaking my head. I don’t know why a major real estate company isn’t using a personalized computational future forecast when selling homes (which would lock anyone into that company). But, don’t do sales and marketing anymore, so…..
In a spiritual sense
It’s nice to see so many people exercising their “power of Choice.” But on sex, racism, and “me-ness?” Couldn’t we all like work on invention, teaching, learning, exploring, art, and so forth. Something not preloaded with reminders of past screw-up and baggage?
Can you imagine (and this borders on sedition): “Imagine waking up where you had nothing to worry about except creating a perfect invention, painting, or plant…” (Or, whatever purpose in your life makes sense as long as it doesn’t impinge on others…)
Well, EXCEPT maybe that won’t work. Since Boston Dynamics now has a beer-pissing robot dog… Was the Patent Office right that everything worthwhile…
Ah…must be Friday. Ure’s gone deep-end, again.
In the Vax stacks: Nearly 6K fully vaccinated Americans got COVID-19 – out of 66M: CDC. We didn’t have time to see how that compares with other vaccines, but there’s the follow-up homework for you.
Trust you already know Pfizer’s shot will likely require a refill in a year? Putt your hands together, brothers and sisters: Is this a kick-ass monetizing, or what? Who else will “discover data” shortly to turn 3,4,, and-beyond shots into a long term “shoot or you die” outcome? When financial faction wars get really good, maybe shots for life could be priced only in cryptos. (Whew! Went a little Philip K. Dick, there for a sec…)
Analytical Skills Class: Take the news report today in Freight News that “Shipping’s billion-dollar coke bust: 8 plead guilty, sentencing begins.” Now, go home and watch the first season 1 of Zero, Zero, Zero on Amazon. Universe has to be laughing profoundly. Will a time come when movie scripters could be arrested for too accurately writing the future? Would The Simpsons survive?
Israeli Nuke Attack Due: When we saw the headline today “Iran starts enriching uranium to 60%, its highest level ever…” It triggered a high probability future-vision: Israel mounting up and rolling with a takedown of all Iran’s underground facilities. Might they go nuclear to do it? Perhaps so. Regardless, they are not going to let a scimitar waving adversary get critical mass. Doesn’t matter if a nuke still might miss things hundreds of feet into mountainsides. Something manpack and dirty would keep the facility from being useable for centuries, depending on what their dirtiest possible bomb option would be. Ground-level and lithium instead of tritium, anyone./ 25,000 years of lockdown?
Market Bias Up
After the data on housing Dow futures were up 70 while S&P futures were up 9 at clicktime.
This is options expiration day, though. I don’t trust indexes on expiration day any more than I trust politicians on election day.
Not saying you shouldn’t. Another one of those duality conundrums. Ohmmmms….
Busy day ahead in the shop. New lean-to on the north side of the shop is really neat in the rain – very pleased with it so far.
Going from memory, Mr. X is guest chef on the SatGourmet. Potato salad seminar time. Sunday, a complete design-build of a zero-clearance table saw cutout using 3D printing…tons of process notes. If I get it done…
Write when you get rich, comments always welcome.