Want to begin with a “hard number”? Sure, we can do that:
The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in February, seasonally adjusted, the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in January
and 0.5 percent in December 2024. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final
demand advanced 3.2 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
In February, a 0.3-percent increase in prices for final demand goods offset a 0.2-percent decline
in the index for final demand services.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2 percent in
February after rising 0.3 percent in January. For the 12 months ended in February, prices for final
demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 3.3 percent.
Want a picture to go along with that? How’s this?
Dow dropped 100 and the S&P fell 20 after the data drop.
Other Pictures are useful, too. Like the New Unemployment filings. Not quite “lines around the block” despite all the buzz and slamming about DOGE:
In terms of where “the hits just keep on coming?”
Overall, we have to judge that America is still here, ready for another workday. After that? Well, that depends (like in pool) “How you’ve set up your next shot.”
See, not enough people have played enough pool (or billiards) to appreciate that where you “leave” every shot matters. The Amateur pool hustler tries to make every shot. Fine. But, the really dangerous Pros not only master most of the shots, but they leave the cue ball in the worst possible position for their opponent if their shot doesn’t drop.
And so, every morning with coffee, spending a few minutes applying “pool strategy” to the day is a nice way to begin Thursdays. You have today and tomorrow to set up your “weekend’s big shots.” [Weekend;’s being, as we like to point out, when we “Get to work for ourselves, not The Man so much…”]
Markets Trying to Turn?
Not after the PPI numbers and unemployment data. But, it’s still the numbers at the close that matter, so we will keep an eye on that.
For now, our Ebbinghaus-based view of multiple moving averages (to help conceptualize how people forget recent losses).
So, we have had a major 1 down (in the NASDAQ), a major 2 up, and we MAY (which I mentioned on PN a week ago) be ready for a major 4 rally. And then (to help Big Al along from Comments overnight) then we may see a washout down to the next lower support line (the long0term trend) which could finish this series of declines and set up a possible macro 5 up that could persist into next year – and beyond.
By the way, I mentioned how people have an “internal timer – the Ebbinghaus forgetfulness curve – as a herd behavior. But, having been a sales guru for much of my corporate life, it’s worth knowing that there was a “selling system” in the late 1960’s called the Sandler Selling System. Consider if this drives market behavior:
“Key Concept: “Feel Their Pain”
The Sandler method uses a psychological approach where salespeople guide prospects into identifying and verbalizing their pain—essentially, getting them to acknowledge their own needs and discomforts before presenting a solution. This lowers resistance because the prospect feels like they are leading the conversation, rather than being “sold” something.
Core Principles of the Sandler Selling System
- Pain-Based Selling – The salesperson asks strategic questions to uncover the prospect’s problems and make them emotionally engaged.
- Reversing the Traditional Sales Model – Instead of presenting and persuading right away, the salesperson listens first, lets the prospect express their needs, and then provides a tailored solution.
- The Up-Front Contract – Establishing clear expectations for both parties early in the conversation, preventing misunderstandings or wasted time.
- Disqualifying Instead of Hard-Selling – Sandler teaches salespeople to qualify prospects rigorously, ensuring that only genuinely interested and capable buyers move forward in the process.
- “The Prospect Owns the Problem” – Instead of pushing a solution, the salesperson helps the prospect see that their current situation is untenable, leading them to want the change.
My own rudimentary thinking on this, which I’ve never modeled for completeness, suggests one reason markets tend to hit lows in the 5th-15th area is that Monthly Statements go out (or post online) a day or two after the first. People then (touching pleasure or pain centers) then try to (set up their next shot) to get less pain and more joy the following month.
Now you’re back to wondering how much of the “herd” is on fentanyl and should just stop over-thinking and over-trading…
Naked News
Trying to focus on coverage of actual events more recently. Too damn much opinion in the MSM and most of it totally off-base or under-thought. So with something of an Event filter on…
Peace Talks Backdrop: Putin claims Russia ‘in final stages’ of taking Kursk – what it means for ceasefire talks.
SpaceX will attempt a rescue tomorrow: NASA, SpaceX Delay ISS Crew Launch — Here’s What Went Wrong
Will the Pope “run-out” before your rental to the movie Conclave dept. Pope Francis 12th anniversary of his papacy, hospitalized but with condition improving.
Predictable Crypto hype will follow as Bank of Russia Approves Crypto Trading for Select Investors. In Russia itself, however, using cryptocurrencies as a form of payment for goods and services within the country is prohibited, comrade. Meanwhile, here in the former Socialist States of America, BTC was trading $82,894.85 in the Worker’s Paradise.
And in the lingering twilight of socialism, Deep Staters may be about to receive a “free education” Is this the beginning of the end for the Department of Education?
No. You shouldn’t be surprised when an (Obama appointed) judge rules against Trump:” “Judge blocks key provisions of Trump’s bid to punish Democratic-linked law firm”
And, our next fight on today’s card: EPA seeks to strike down ‘holy grail’ of climate change rules.
Obviously Wrong, Dept.
Um, maybe he’s just working his Tax Code the way you worked ours Dept? Trump says Ireland cheats the US as its leader joins him to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day.
How living next door to a Party House, how neighborhood policies result: Egypt welcomes Trump’s comments about not expelling Palestinians from Gaza.
At the Ranch: A Woo Tale
Sent one of my odd dreams to a couple of ex mil buds.
Ure’s ongoing Dream Log Marcyh 12, 2025
As I became aware that a dream was underway, I did a look around. I discovered I was in an airport. But it was a very unusual one; there was a civilian side (which is where I was standing when the dream began) and there was a government/military side. Like I imagined Tucson might be – a civilian side and an ANG side…
Presently, a “guide voice” spoke to me. “You are here for an important meeting. You will need to go out the double-glass doors onto the government side. You will be led from there…”
Opening the right-hand door and stepping into a large (hangar-like area which was very well-lit) I noticed there was an “entry mat” on the floor. On it was a large (18-inch square?) military or country-flag symbol. The mat itself was big – maybe 3-feet by 4 or 5 feet. The military or country logo on the mat was mainly yellow and red with some blue borders, maybe one of two other colors. I made a mental note to try and run it down with AI to see what it might be.
AI rendered it this way
I walked ahead (thinking “My, ain’t this odd?” and a nondescript woman came along on my right and said “follow me…”
We proceeded ahead and left (of the plane in the picture) and came to what can only be called a “field office:” set up in the hangar.
I was taken over to a ”security desk” where a woman told me that my clearance from my teenage years was “being updated” I would have a new op-sign and mine would be “Dopey.”
“Huh? Me?”
“Well, yes, you. All the ops are done using Disney op names for security. Keeps the system clean.
Follow those two women over to the snack area and get something to eat and drink and I’ll get your update ready. You remember your last one was what, 24-30 pages long with all the questions? Should be quicker now…things change less than you might think with people….”
I fell in behind two Black woman, both in jeans and both wearing green chenille or velour green tops. Kinda like Star Trek tops. They were talking and one said to the other:
“…yeah, I think they pick people like us because we work in housekeeping and janitorial roles so well, no one really gives us a second look. But I also heard that we are gifted and have talents so the way this works is this: There is a big government remote viewing program, but because all the Big Powers do it, they are now using “disposable perception portals…” – and that’s what they call us. Perception Portals. That way, a high-end government operator can task us in dreams to go out and look at things. That way, if we are intercepted by another operation, there’s no track-back to the government’s main deep program. I think it’s like being psychic “cut-outs…”
SOLVED!
By a headline of the NY Post this morning (just over 24-hours after the email).
NY Post headlined this AM: Dopey Disney – Disney ‘doesn’t know what to do’ with outspoken star Rachel Zegler
Goofy, huh? But that’s sometimes how (trying to grapple with Future) how concepts go into the blender and come out all whichy-way. Except how they went in…
Oh, and the “Men Who Look at Goats” doctor IRL tells me, perception portals don’t work and I don’t want that clearance renewed…. (whew!)
Bumpin Toward Sunset
Spring is springin’ out here in East Texas. Fuel run today – power equipment time is here. Hoo-rah! A side of Wes Montgomery with that?
We will be restocking from winter propane use – mostly in the generator this winter from multiple outages. Yes, electric start is the only way to have a gennie.
Stocking up will come before propane is turned into a “controlled substance” by the climate mob. Unless they got up a lot earlier than me…
Also on the morning playlist around here: Eric Johnson’s “Trademark.” and here’s a bit of classic Frank to make the woke crowd crazy!
There, my work is done for the day. Let’s see if I can take Friday off, huh?
Write when you get rich,
George@Ure.net
Clif High: Some manifestations that may appear are worth noting.
There is a very large set about economic activity. This includes finances. These financial sets have a curious story to tell. These sets are forecasting that the DOGE guys, or perhaps, because of their actions more than their discoveries, cause a giant layer of financial information to emerge. This set is around the idea of a ‘MASSIVE FRAUD’ within the Federal Reserve and the Treasury under the democrats these last 20+ years. Note that it was hidden under Trump’s first administration.
The MASSIVE FRAUD is so massive as to completely destroy all accounting, and all financial ‘systems’, and all the markets based on the Fed Reserve note/dollar. It ends the dollar on its discovery.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-158920574
The dollar goes and… there’s no gold???
Nostradamus and The Third Age of Mars, The Prophecies of World War III, G. A. Stewart, 2019, Page 562
In 2017, there were approximately 233 paper ounces of gold to 1 physical ounce and 517 paper ounces of silver to 1 physical ounce. Nostradamus predicts that those oversold gold and silver contracts will cause the COMEX to default.
I believe that the “two great debonair ones” are Russia and China. Both countries continue to reinforce their economies with physical possession of tons of gold and silver.
America supposedly has over 8,133 tons while Russia and China have over 1,828 and 1,842 tons respectively.
However, as you will read, the United States may have sold off its gold reserves or may have hidden it somewhere else.
https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2025/02/23/g-a-stewart-prophecy-video-nostradamus-on-global-economic-collapse/
Nein, nein, nein..
NERP!
America does not have 8,133 tons of GOLD . The FED holds a GOLD CERTIFICATE from Treasury for exactly 8,133 OZ GOLD.
and – the fed aint FEDERAL – it is a cartel of private EU banks controling our Lives.
However! It’s important to note that these gold certificates do not grant the Federal Reserve any right to redeem them for physical gold. They are simply accounting entries reflecting the value of gold held by the Treasury at the statutory price.
Which is 42.222 per ounce. At present value US holding are worth 770 billion us frns
BCN(goldbuggin) : I firmly believe the US gold stocks are in house. If it weren’t the line of Presidents would at least have been informed. Trump would not be agreeable to a “look see” if the bullion disproved a portion of our reserves. Some minor (for now) market dislocations are one thing … AU/AG skyrocketing is another thing.
Egor
ps – while I am happy about gainers in each of my silver ounces, the real metallic play has been Cu
Been riding IVPAF, FCX for several years..luv the red metal and all the molybdenum that comes along wit.
Uncertainty/Doubt/Fear = Gold clad Tungstun Bars frm Chynah.
– good authority there be some of that going on since Bubba in a blue dress was blowing lines in WH, as Monica was blowing other things..”I did not have sexual intercourse with that Women” – Bubba c.
Shout out, belated thanks bubba, for redefining what Oral Sex and Sexual Intercourse entail..
Fractional (partial) reserves?
Enough to satisfy any short-term demand for
redemption, but the bulk “factored” (possibly
leased) several times over.
Huge shortfall from the expected levels of 100% reserves.
G: big moon tonight, and a lunar eclipse? Wonder what Arch would say. Ditto on coming of spring. But … it’s going to snow on Sunday :0/ regardless, the seasons are a changing, BR, Egor
George
Instead of your historic market rhythms defining next steps in the downward cascade, how about a different model.
Most people have been winning in the rigged casino for so long (well that is how the financial system provides social control after all) that they are shocked to find that it is really a house of cards. Now that the winning streak is over most of the proles want to get their money back before they actually experience real loss.
There being no actual news to underpin a belief that the economy is based on anything but glowing screens and cheap entertainment there is a dawning awareness that there may never be future earning. See everyon is mired in debt, not just the government, so they are now facing a future where their income no longer pays for their debts..;. just like the government.
There may be hiccups in the crash but your wave theories are based on the idea that actual retail choices drive the market rather than the manipulations of BlackRock and Fidelity. As more and more folks catch the panic, they will want to go to cash. So as your root for Trump, the majority of people are discovering a level of fear last seen in 29 to 32. So yes, a kind of replay of 29 but a lot deeper and probably faster. I wouldn’t hold my breath for a barn burner of a wave 2 for later in the Spring. There just isn’t the level of preteding that things will improve. So folks will liquidate while the getting is good.
In 1999, I think it was, with LTCM and then in 2008 with AIG and General Electric, if the Government hadn’t come in via the Fed everybody’s Money Market Funds would have “busted the buck” … ie: actually suddenly worth a LOT LESS than a Dollar.
Remember with Money Market Funds there is NO FDIC or FSLIC insurance backing up ANYTHING, forget the limited $250,000/per person per institution with the FDIC and FSLIC.
Can you imagine the chaos if everybody’s cash balances at Fidelity suddenly got a 35% haircut overnight?
When the markets sell off, as they have been, you know that there ARE some leveraged players out there who are NOW UPSIDE DOWN, just the way the game works. Will their insolvency create a systemic risk?
Who knows, but there was one analyst interviewee on Bloomberg on Monday who strongly implied, more than once in his interview, that there are now rumors floating around that somebody BIG is in a serious serious liquidity crunch. Go watch the movie from 2009 “Margin Call” if you want to get a flavor for what begins to happen when that dynamic hits the markets.
Based on past behavior by the Fed you can be certain that if such is the case the Fed and the regulators will try to “wall off” the problem … but there could still be serious collateral damage to all sorts of market participants as clearing houses can no longer clear trades since their liquidity is gone, at least temporarily. (in ’87 for all intents and purposes most if not all of the options trading/clearing organizations were bankrupt .. but the Fed leaned on banks to give them unlimited credit so all options trades would clear … will they do that if it happens again with options trading now 100x bigger than in 87?)
Another good movie to watch, for it’s key 2 minute segment is Trading Places when the biggest traders in Orange Futures contracts was suddenly going insolvent … when it happens it happens FAST, just ask Rick Ackerman who was an Options Market Maker in 87 and went bankrupt which is why he can never legally manage money again.
“If you all have a margin count, you may lose your house,” warns Bert Dohmen, founder and president of the Dohmen Capital Research Group. In today’s interview with Daniela Cambone, Dohmen cautions that investors who don’t fully understand these risks could face catastrophic financial losses, including losing their homes if they can’t meet margin calls.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mtWG8UJd-h0
I don’t mean my comments above to diss on Rick Ackerman. He is a very good technician and calls the markets as he sees them. Very insightful about the markets and the economy underlying the markets so when he says something it is clearly worth paying attention to.
I have watched Rick and read his comments for more than 25 years now and he is one of the best out there wrt the inside dynamics of the markets on a technical basis. He is not the only Options Market Maker who went bankrupt in 1987, there were a number who ended up in the same boat. Dynamic Hedging didn’t protect them like the math said it would (as LTCM found out about mathmatical models a dozen years later)
Sorry E-ATL,
But a Deadman tells no tales..
– https://youtu.be/_ZHEu7HusG4?si=udsN5sSP6N7D-mXK
G.A. STEWART: Will anybody ever get tired of the redactions? The redactions say everything that anyone needs to know; the Conspiracy Theories are real.
March 11, 2025
FBI Redactions on Seth Rich Index Leave No Answers
1) What is up with that? Where is FBI Director Kash Patel on this?
2) Where are those Jeffrey Epstein files?
3) Where are those JFK, RFK, and MLK assassination files?
https://theageofdesolation.com/nostradamus/2025/03/13/spiritual-inertia/
re: ‘Tesla Tales’, 2025
feat: mature audiences
Folks,
Apparently posters are going up in the UK. Is an unauthorized movie about Mr. Musk in the works? What’s the budget? Ask Banksy? Here is an “X” link to a street level look at the shenanigans:
https://x.com/OverthrowMusk/status/1900204684972851331
Attention to the old men with gray hair who visit this site…
For all men who want to do something about their grey hair, Alpecin Grey Attack as the new Caffeine & Color Shampoo offers our best for men’s hair that is turning grey: the possibility to make hair darker again step by step in just two to five minutes.
Leave on the scalp for 2 – 5 minutes – from application to rinsing off. The following applies: A longer application time intensifies the color effect! Use daily for the first few weeks until the desired color result is achieved. Then alternate with normal shampoo to maintain the color tone. The color intensity can thus be controlled by application time and frequency.
https://www.alpecin.com/en-de/shampoos-liquids/details/product/grey-attack-coffein-color-shampoo
I’m on day 5, and it’s working!
But, does your hair stay up all night?
Alpecin Grey Attack Shampoo – gradually darker hair – YouTube
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2dfbQvpaWu8
A caller to Hal Turner said that he heard that the EU is going to impose capital controls in April,leaving the USA in great shape by contrast.
The White House is working off the premise that the GDP growth will be 2 to 2.5 % in the first quarter. Which is a partial answer to some of their recent financial shenanigans. Nothing, however, was mentioned about the 2nd quarter prospects. Which will show what their shenanigans have accomplished.
.
I’m out – got out of my ‘puts’ as the Dow crossed down 510 points. Might be a bit early, once again., but my math said -510., and it has served me well for years, we’ll see. Good trade ! [ err, I mean- bet.]
“Carnac the Magnificent” my aggregated index – the 42 DMA has ‘officially’ crossed below its 85 DMA. and it is still blowing out the bottom of the Bollinger Bands.
Bond futures – are not lining up with my math.., so I am going to have to rework my math – soon. The 13 Week should be back over 4.2 %., but is still hanging at 4.193 %. May seem like its a minor difference., but it plays a part two of my math formulas. So – adjustment on my part seems to be called for.
Hope you had good, rewarding morning. 42 degrees – light rain.
Regarding someone’s post about the Philippines and the ICC. Got me wondering…,
.
In summary, while the ICC can issue arrest warrants and request extradition, it depends on the cooperation of member states to carry out these actions. The ICC itself does not have the power, or authority to enter a foreign country, arrest an individual, and extradite them without the assistance, cooperation and approval of the states involved.
.
In plain-speak.., the Philippines government arrested him and extradited him to the Hague for trial. The ICC, by themselves, could not have done this.
A 4.4 magnitude earthquake struck the Italian city of Naples overnight, causing damage to buildings and property. The U.S. Geological Survey recorded it as a 4.2 magnitude earthquake at a depth of 6.2 miles.. It was one of the strongest earthquakes Naples has felt in recent years. Two smaller tremors followed the biggest.
Naples is close to the Campi Flegrei, a large and active caldera volcano that sits along with Vesuvius on the Campanian volcanic arc, which is prone to seismic activity.
Campi Flegrei has been responsible for some of the most significant volcanic eruptions in Europe over the past 110,000 years.
Just exactly what the E.U. needs right now.., a massive eruption from Campi Flegrei.