Post Greek (World) Collapse Rally

(Missoula, MT) In long wave economics, the idea is that there not only are certain periods of finance that tend to report, but that these are driven by social mood.

So in some ways, American can be seen (socially) as back in the 1950s.

Here’s how: 

We know that with the failure of the Greek Tragedy to cause a full on market rout, the market was set earlier this morning to rally at the open.  Reason? 

Well, to paraphrase a line from this column last week, doggone world didn’t end.

But the hype which has rolled out now is that the Greek situation could drive that country into the arms of socialists..

The problem is that the last time this happened was back in the middle 1950s.  The Greeks were having a love affair with Russian economics and socialists had made their way into government, key labor unions and more.

Go look up the “International Socialist Tendency” in Wikipedia:

Through the 1950s the SRG had a loose relationship with the US Independent Socialist League (ISL) led by Max Shachtman until it dissolved in 1958. It then retained links with comrades coming out of that group and with other individuals in the international Trotskyist movement. But there was no significant growth in support for its ideas until the late 1960s. Some of the ideas of the IST, such as the permanent arms economy were originally developed from writings published by the ISL. The theory of the permanent arms economy was developed by T. N. Vance in a series published throughout 1951 in the ISL journal New International and was later refined by Cliff in the late 1950s and over the years by key International Socialist (IS) theoreticians such as Mike Kidron, Nigel Harris and Chris Harman in later years.

OK, let’s look at the date here…I remember as a kid (all kids in K-12 ought to be reading Time magazine…):  Let’s agree to use the date 1958 on this, shall we?  The nascent movement wasn’t much until later in the 50s.

Now, what is the length of the economic long wave?  Well, we’re pretty sure that it’s between 48-years and 64.  There is the (Mazurok-Ure) currency collapse cycle, which is why rates won’t go up too fast, but that’s up in the 85-year range. 

Next, let’s do the math:  2015 minus 1958 is how many years?

57 years.

Of course, last time around, the end of civilization did NOT occur.  The Socialists were so contentious that no one seemed to be able to get along with them.  Greeks are good negotiators, after all, and it’s trying to break a bull in a China shop to calm ‘em down, once riled up.

So, as I was reading how “Greece and Russia collaborate to avoid international sanctions,” I hark back to the earlier period when the dire doomsters (circa 1956) were telling us how Greece would fall into community hands.

And now? 

Well, again, history replays itself (yet again) and the lack of social recall in the MainStream Media is nothing short of appalling.

Which is fine with us.  Sort of weeds out the playing field and gives us a unique selling proposition for this website:  News and memory.

How about that?

Russia didn’t get control of Greece and the socialists came to power in the US, instead.  But only if you know how to read history and whether that’s a good thing, or bad, depends on how dearly you love social “transfer payments” to fix all that ails us.

The main point of this morning is that some headlines are eternal:  “Washington fears losing Greece to Moscow” in the Financial Times is exactly the same headline that could have run in 1958 when socialism was on the rise in Greece 57 years ago.

The Week Ahead

Some housing data this morning (which we will miss) and then Durable Goods tomorrow.   GDP Wednesday, and for fiction readers, there’s the disposable personal income stuff to come Thursday in the personal incomes and outlays report.

Friday things wind down, and about then, gold should be getting close to its habitual end of month beat-down.

So if you were looking for a good week to play hooky, or go on vacation, I know two people who are doing mostly that and don’t have any regrets about it.

Life’s too short to worry about nothing but making money though only people that have saved a bit seem to spout such platitudes.

Seasonal Dead Disorder?

Here’s an interesting concept:  The climate types are now says that milder winters won’t impact the winter death rate among people.

It has been a kind of article of faith (or hype?) that as global warming comes along, there would be a decline in the number of winter deaths.  The latest research, though, says the death rate is not particularly correlated to actual temperature.

Don’t look now, but the common sense of it is that the winter death rate is likely economically based as much as anything.  It’s pretty easy to find work during the warmer half of the year.  In the colder half?  Not so much, except for Christmas clerking, but not in many cultures…

Yet Another Weight Loss Plan

Not that I have a difficult time losing weight now…but here’s a diet to consider (Mimic Fasting) which seems to delivery many of the benefits, but there are still good eats in it…

At age 66, it’s about an even bet whether obesity, taxes, Hillary Clinton,  or actuarial tables represent the highest risk to my personal future.

OK, early posting, and off to the airport we go… No idea why doesn’t have a full log of our travels, but KDDC to KBFF was mostly without radar coverage.  Oh well…we’re here, KMSO and soon there…KTIW.

7 thoughts on “Post Greek (World) Collapse Rally”

  1. It seems with the Greeks – it’s always been a tragedy – even when it was the seat of the Roman empire. I expect the Russians will give them a kiss and a hug – and welcome them into the fold – right along with the Orthodox church they took in years and years ago over those “western Europeans” Roman church.

    • Well, that wouldn’t be terribly surprising – given that they are both ‘Orthodox’ in outlook (and as you say by ‘history’), but I think that the governmental aspect will be more problematic – Greece is not going to be too keen on running from one controlling entity (the EU) straight into the arms of another (Russia, and more importantly – Putin).

      I think that they will try to ‘go it alone’ for some time . . .

  2. I think it would be nice if you would give us your opinion on life insurance…do you have any? Do you think it is worth getting it, and at what amount? Do you think a person can just save up enough for their funeral and reception? Or not leave a penny….haven’t remembered if you have covered this topic yet or not. My dear Dad passed at 85…he outlived all basic term insurance coverages…he had cardiomyopathy for 23 years before he passed…and he lived a long healthy life in spite of that genetic heart defect….so…he would not have been able to get coverage as his first symptoms started in his early 50’s but first case of CHF when 63…so I think of all that money he would have spent in premiums when his coverage would have ended at 80…yes there are lots of other products that go until the last breath, but they get pretty pricey….ended up, about $12k or so would have taken care of all of his last expenses including funeral, church, reception, wrapping up house, last month’s medical bills, etc., and he left more than enough to cover that.

    • There are two kinds of life insurance: Term and whole life. (There are others, but let’s not quibble.)
      I bought whole life when I was 35, had a high income and needed to ensure the future of four people. At that age and circumstance, term made cents, so to speak.
      For later years, though, why pay an insurance company to basically buy some property and stock indices and pay them a commission because most people don’t have the gumption or backbone to invest for their own future?
      That’s why we have chosen to invest as we have, not particularly high risk, but very good prospects, indeed.
      The one thing anyone can invest in is good health, which is the highest possible return of all. Eat almost no sugars, eat no processed foods, a little exercise, and super good vitamins.
      But that’s my view of insurance. It’s a tool in the right situation, and a gotcha in anything else.

  3. Hey George,

    I heard a tidbit on the news coming back from the Rancho de Chaos aka The Farm this afternoon after a leisurely weekend on the back of a so called mini excavator that was intent upon shaking my kidneys loose that Portland OR is expecting 104 degrees in the next few days. WTF???.

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