(Missoula, MT) In long wave economics, the idea is that there not only are certain periods of finance that tend to report, but that these are driven by social mood.
So in some ways, American can be seen (socially) as back in the 1950s.
We know that with the failure of the Greek Tragedy to cause a full on market rout, the market was set earlier this morning to rally at the open. Reason?
Well, to paraphrase a line from this column last week, doggone world didn’t end.
But the hype which has rolled out now is that the Greek situation could drive that country into the arms of socialists..
The problem is that the last time this happened was back in the middle 1950s. The Greeks were having a love affair with Russian economics and socialists had made their way into government, key labor unions and more.
Go look up the “International Socialist Tendency” in Wikipedia:
Through the 1950s the SRG had a loose relationship with the US Independent Socialist League (ISL) led by Max Shachtman until it dissolved in 1958. It then retained links with comrades coming out of that group and with other individuals in the international Trotskyist movement. But there was no significant growth in support for its ideas until the late 1960s. Some of the ideas of the IST, such as the permanent arms economy were originally developed from writings published by the ISL. The theory of the permanent arms economy was developed by T. N. Vance in a series published throughout 1951 in the ISL journal New International and was later refined by Cliff in the late 1950s and over the years by key International Socialist (IS) theoreticians such as Mike Kidron, Nigel Harris and Chris Harman in later years.
OK, let’s look at the date here…I remember as a kid (all kids in K-12 ought to be reading Time magazine…): Let’s agree to use the date 1958 on this, shall we? The nascent movement wasn’t much until later in the 50s.
Now, what is the length of the economic long wave? Well, we’re pretty sure that it’s between 48-years and 64. There is the (Mazurok-Ure) currency collapse cycle, which is why rates won’t go up too fast, but that’s up in the 85-year range.
Next, let’s do the math: 2015 minus 1958 is how many years?
Of course, last time around, the end of civilization did NOT occur. The Socialists were so contentious that no one seemed to be able to get along with them. Greeks are good negotiators, after all, and it’s trying to break a bull in a China shop to calm ‘em down, once riled up.
So, as I was reading how “Greece and Russia collaborate to avoid international sanctions,” I hark back to the earlier period when the dire doomsters (circa 1956) were telling us how Greece would fall into community hands.
Well, again, history replays itself (yet again) and the lack of social recall in the MainStream Media is nothing short of appalling.
Which is fine with us. Sort of weeds out the playing field and gives us a unique selling proposition for this website: News and memory.
How about that?
Russia didn’t get control of Greece and the socialists came to power in the US, instead. But only if you know how to read history and whether that’s a good thing, or bad, depends on how dearly you love social “transfer payments” to fix all that ails us.
The main point of this morning is that some headlines are eternal: “Washington fears losing Greece to Moscow” in the Financial Times is exactly the same headline that could have run in 1958 when socialism was on the rise in Greece 57 years ago.
The Week Ahead
Some housing data this morning (which we will miss) and then Durable Goods tomorrow. GDP Wednesday, and for fiction readers, there’s the disposable personal income stuff to come Thursday in the personal incomes and outlays report.
Friday things wind down, and about then, gold should be getting close to its habitual end of month beat-down.
So if you were looking for a good week to play hooky, or go on vacation, I know two people who are doing mostly that and don’t have any regrets about it.
Life’s too short to worry about nothing but making money though only people that have saved a bit seem to spout such platitudes.
Seasonal Dead Disorder?
Here’s an interesting concept: The climate types are now says that milder winters won’t impact the winter death rate among people.
It has been a kind of article of faith (or hype?) that as global warming comes along, there would be a decline in the number of winter deaths. The latest research, though, says the death rate is not particularly correlated to actual temperature.
Don’t look now, but the common sense of it is that the winter death rate is likely economically based as much as anything. It’s pretty easy to find work during the warmer half of the year. In the colder half? Not so much, except for Christmas clerking, but not in many cultures…
Yet Another Weight Loss Plan
Not that I have a difficult time losing weight now…but here’s a diet to consider (Mimic Fasting) which seems to delivery many of the benefits, but there are still good eats in it…
At age 66, it’s about an even bet whether obesity, taxes, Hillary Clinton, or actuarial tables represent the highest risk to my personal future.
OK, early posting, and off to the airport we go… No idea why www.flightaware.com doesn’t have a full log of our travels, but KDDC to KBFF was mostly without radar coverage. Oh well…we’re here, KMSO and soon there…KTIW.