Gotta Lock-In Somewhere, Right?
If there was ever a reason to buy the biggest home you could afford, Coronavirus is IT. Capital I.T.
Not surprisingly, people are doing exactly as programmed:
NEW YORK, NOVEMBER 24, 2020 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2020 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 7.0% annual gain in September, up from 5.8% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 6.2%, up from 4.9% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 6.6% year-over-year gain, up from 5.3% in the previous month.
Phoenix, Seattle and San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 19 cities (excluding Detroit) in September. Phoenix led the way with an 11.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 10.1% increase and San Diego with a 9.5% increase. All 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending September 2020 versus the year ending August 2020.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
The National Index posted a 1.2% month-over-month increase, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, before seasonal adjustment in September. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 1.4%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.2% and 1.3% respectively. In September, all 19 cities (excluding Detroit) reported increases before seasonal adjustment, and after seasonal adjustment.
ANALYSIS
“Housing prices were notably – I am tempted to say ‘very’ – strong in September,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “The National Composite Index gained 7.0% relative to its level a year ago, well ahead of August’s 5.8% increase. The 10- and 20-City Composites (up 6.2% and 6.6%, respectively) also rose at an accelerating pace in September. The strength of the housing market was consistent nationally – all 19 cities for which we have September data rose, and all 19 gained more in the 12 months ended in September than they had done in the 12 months ended in August.
“A trend of accelerating increases in the National Composite Index began in August 2019 but was interrupted in May and June, as COVID-related restrictions produced modestly-decelerating price gains. Our three monthly readings since June of this year have all shown accelerating growth in home prices, and September’s results are quite strong. The last time that the National Composite matched September’s 7.0% growth rate was more than six years ago, in May 2014. This month’s increase may reflect a catch-up of COVID-depressed demand from earlier this year; it might also presage future strength, as COVID encourages potential buyers to move from urban apartments to suburban homes. The next several months’ reports should help to shed light on this question.
Sure as hell can’t do these kinds of gains at the bank, can you?
One of these days over on the Peoplenomics side (where the real work lives) we’ll take a look atr inflationi-adjusted housing costs. And just as we get into looking at GDP this morning (which will be updating tomorrow) there real value appreciation and then there’s financial valuation. Which can be totally different critters.
Except when you need a personal prison.
People laughed when we moved to a double-wide trailer in the woods back in 2003.
But here lately, a “personal prison yard” if 29-acres doesn’t seem like a bad thing…at least compared with “solitary condo-finement.”
Housing is about where it should be.
I found a website that says, “In 2020, average household income in the United States was $97,973.61.”
FRED says the “Average Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States” was 387K 10/20.
I think the norm is “28% of your gross”.
27K = $2,250 a month towards house.
P&I on 400K @ 3.25% is around $1,750.
https://dqydj.com/household-income-percentile-calculator/
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ASPUS
A more telling statistic is median household income which is $68,400.00 in the United States this year. I would question the 28% of gross benchmark, rather than a percentage of disposable income. Housing is overpriced.
“I think the norm is “28% of your gross”.”
Not the “norm.”
28% was always and forever (until the government forced lenders to make trillions in loans to home-buyers who were not financially-capable of repaying them) the absolute ceiling at which a home loan could be made, or a first mortgage could be guaranteed.
Financial planners would use 28% as an absolute demarcation line, to yield an amount of available income to which a home purchase budget had to adhere, and financial loan officers would flat reject any mortgage application which exceeded 28% of AGI, unless the applicant had deposits or LTI vehicles in that bank, which met or exceeded the prospective loan’s payoff balance. The FP and loan officer could “jigger” the numbers to extend the term, or write a loan with a zero principal period (hence the birth of the balloon mortgage) but if they couldn’t find a way to get P+I under the 28% AGI figure, they couldn’t write the mortgage, loan, or even the promissory note…
It is not the norm (or at least it wasn’t), it is the upper limit (and yeah, I know ppl who’re spending half their income on “4 walls & a roof,” too.)
“Stupid” is best learned from — not emulated…
And borrowing 400,000$ allows the Central bankers to print up 14,800,000$ of competing debt dollars that destroy and have destroyed your neighbors savings. Welcome to the neighborhood.?
Real Oatmeal, not the instant or packaged is OUT OF STOCK. Shelves are bare. Oatmeal mus be “THE COVA” survival food. I think Oatmeal lasts 25 years. I hope so because I found some in our pantry & I ate it. Now that my new Ralston supply has arrived from Amazon, I can put the Oatmeal back in the pantry & save it in case of lean times. You can only get Ralston from Amazon.
Did you live?
I am SO glad I was able to retire out of my solitary ‘Condo-finement’ in a big, infected cluster-f**k of a city. Got my little ranch during an ‘eruption sale’ on the volcano and it has doubled in value in five years. Not that I would ever sell…
Must be running out of bullsheet topics the guru blog sites. Gotta keep the sheep / veges paying. Some real crap doing the rounds of der land . Old salty bob on 321 is starting to self ignite horse manure .sounds like hippy hippy shakes too!!! Ray oral vaccine?
If I remember correctly it was Dow 32k that I had pegged at before the big tumble. Shit I don’t remember. It on here somwhere in the sea of comments. I think it was back when I picked the last Bitcoin correction. I want to say December 18th, 2018??? Hmmmmm yeah I think it was 32k.
I got other shit on my brain. Lol
As always not trading advice. And we have jumped timelines twice since then that I am aware of. Lol
You are exactly correct. I distinctly remember. That thought occurred when it just hit 30,000.
A lot of the bulk dried foods you buy are not properly packaged for long term. Best to repackage them in mylar storage bags with oxygen absorbers. You can put’em back in the original container afterwards, if it is resealable. Did that once with a small bucket of oatmeal.
yep folks take note of what im saying . I rely on absurd signals from life and people for the triggers . 2 or 3 years ago when bitcoin hit the CME in Chicago I was able to short it in the land of vegezombie oz . I was inspecting my mates new unit and approached by a nutcase who told me he was buying bitcoin, muscle trainer . I said why ? he said it always goes up . I said whats its producy?cost of production? sales ? he said that’s bsheet who cares . next day I shorted bitcoin , at the line . in 2 months I doubled the $$$ and closed . never went back , not my scene couldn’t give a sheet . today in the gym a insect type of seriously low iq real estate said hows your day ? I said the same . being paranoid and insecure he gave me a schmuck look . I said , don’t worry mate every day is good , im alive and things are a chance . I said I just add shorts on the market on rises , I said the other guys must be getting nervous . he looked, smiled and said bit of wishful thinking !! I said mate I thank you so much , you did it .
BIL(Bro-in-law) is forensic path for two states USA. Have 24 nieces&nephews and large social contact.
No-one has virus and no-one knows of anyone whom has .
The stats for morbidity C-19 could be reflected by the the plummet of myocardial infarction world wide.
Any one capable of pulling #?