Pencil Work

Don’t look now, but the comparison with 1929 is back.  So today we’re throwing a pencil at it. Because while 1929 can never happen again, runaway inflation of asset prices not only can but there’s a fair case it has been underway since summer.

Of course, a few (obligatory) headlines and the preview of the week ahead. But even here, we’ll b e playing the “Event Linkage Game” and try to figure out a “most likely path” to get to next week’s winner and loser.

Oh, and we have more action evolving on the weather front, as well, so don’t blow off today’s report…

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38 thoughts on “Pencil Work”

  1. George,

    5 November 2024 is both a predictable 27 Oct 2023 completed x/2.5x exact terminal 1st and 2nd fractal time ratio 74(-)/184 of 184 days for a 184 day 2nd fractal nonlinear collapse for ACWI, the 100+ trillion global equity proxy ETF.

    5 November 2024 is also an exact completed x/2.5x time ratio for a 23 Sept 2024 10(-)/24 day of 24 day for a 24 day 2nd fractal nonlinear collapse for Trump media. http://www.economicfractalist.com/blog/2024/11/02/the-5-november-2024-crash-does-the-fractal-math-of-djt-media-tech-predict-a-trump-presidential-loss/

    • Kinda head-and-shoulder look to the S&P looking at the last six months:

      https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX

      I haven’t really noticed the sort of volatility pre-tremors I associate with large scale crashes. Still, sometimes the rats gnaw into something vital under the hood, and the markets bleed out before the public wakes up.

      I’m far less confident that Elliott can make a serious call on an election. Still too close to call:

      https://www.270towin.com/

      I would guess that the claim that R’s are more likely to lie about their voting intent to pollsters than D’s could be plausible, which would make the race even tighter.

      • “pollsters ”

        What type of person is still answering pollsters?

        Most everyone has a cell phone now-a-days and the phone indicates either a ‘political call’ or comes through as a text. When I receive a political call I immediately hit block. I can’t imagine people stopping their day to take a political call, “Hold everything, I’ve got a political call. Let me pull-over, this is important.” Or returning from doing whatever then catching up on text surveys.

        All that to say is whoever the target audience is for the calls/text surveys is a demographic and probably votes the same way.

  2. Be Joyful:

    Most are experiencing understandable angst (primarily due to media [over] exposure) but be not afraid. The Founders gave us this mechanism to express ourselves so take you turn and vote. I hope there is a groundswell movement style expression of We the People. Here in battleground Michigan, well, the people are going to the Polls.

    Choice aside, we wonder Precious:

    Long ago on a planet far away We were a Precinct Committee Man. The voting machines were truly that, analog ratcheting counters that registered as you reopened the privacy curtain. When polls closed, we (8-ish poll officers) broke the seal, opened the back, and read out the tally. Everyone signed the resulting ledger and it was ferried by an officer to the County which merged tally sheets.

    Bingo bango, we had a result in less than an hour after closing.

    So, now we have a patchwork of electronic gizmodarie that seemingly can’t give us a nummer same night? Puhleeze. We can do better ya know. We did …

    ATL: gorgeous if frosty (heavy killing frost) especially as first light lit colorful tree tops above mist on the water. The nearest railroad tracks are 10 miles distant but I could hear a locomotive slow then speed up once clearing the little towns. A delight. Trees that still have leaves on are at peak. Delish.

    Go for a walk. Unplug.
    Egor

    ps – Ure: yesterday ya called us out: “lying dog-faced pony soldier” … nah … garbage men matey

    • On the other side of the world, voting is compulsory in Australia. I know that is anathema to Americans but I can see now with a 60+ year view that it’s actually a good thing. Everyone has a stake and no-one can claim that their voice wasn’t heard. Or the machines rigged.

      Not only that but voting is always on a Saturday! Our sacred weekend! Softened by the promise of a sausage sizzle (a perfectly browned sausage slathered in tomato sauce and caramelised onions and lovingly wrapped in a soft, doughy white bread roll). What’s not to like??

      Our elections are short and sharp – snap elections are called anytime in a certain window so we only have to endure 2-8 weeks of rabid electioneering. If you don’t vote you cop a $100 fine. Big deal – a small price to pay to live in a democratic country.

      All votes are on physical ballot papers, marked in pencil and collected in sealed cardboard ballot boxes secured with tape that bears a security seal. Votes are counted immediately and results known within hours.

      Yes we have a much smaller population but you have more people to man the booths and count the votes – it’s a scalable model. KISS at work.

  3. “figure out a “most likely path” to get to next week’s winner and loser.”

    Regardless of who wins the election, Kamala is and always will be a loser.

    • KaChingalingaling !

      bbbBadass company/investment – in fact best performing asset past 3 years in portfolio’s (fam ofc). Have taken some profits , after the split this past year, otherwise riding this thoroughbred champion to more “Purses” than Ure can shake a stick at !

      Talley Ho, HomeGamers, talley ho!

      • The Last Three years ? MSTR ~ ^ 1400% dont forget o factor the 10:1 stock split this last July.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtmD139jSkQ

        I am averse to investing in Stocks [for now] opting for my synthetic cash position…..When MSTR falls “in sympathy” with what you all have been prognosticating for the S&P for decades here, is here, I’ll be a collector.

        Not Advice do your own homework.

        Got Blockchain….

        PS:

        Saylor is acting like the banker. On the macro folks, here’s my Crypto Currency game theory ala 2013.

        Steevo’s Theorem on Crypto:

        The economies and manufacturing and production of real things will be so decimated by the global fiat inflation that the only way to make margins will be to acquire and speculatively HODL Bitcoin and other select crypto assets with legal clarity and ISO20022 compliance.

        The fundamentals are simple: The next financial innovation to be created since the bond of 1694.

        https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/freedom-of-information/2020/details-of-the-bank-of-england-loan-to-the-government-in-1694

        How do all these Web 3.0 open stacks and AI pay for exchange of work product and services amongst one another?

        Bots pay in crypto, people on the Moon and Mars will transact in digital assets.

        You’ve got a multi generational financial game changer happening right now home gamers…..

    • In 2020 Trump had huge rally crowds compared to Biden’s half dozen or so reporters who showed up.

      • and that election was stolen from “we the people”

        don’t mind me, I am full of hopium
        tick tock, expect chaos,,, KAOS

  4. The Global Consciousness Dot no longer appears on my screen. (Might be just me.)
    The gold chart at the bottom is also among the recently missing…

    • Global Consciousness Dot is visible on mine.., but the gold chart, usually at the very bottom – is missing [ but I believe ‘G’ said he was working on that. ]

  5. (“So “WHAT IF” China decided they really wanted to get control of Taiwan this month? One way to do it – and keep the international criticism to a minimum – would be to “send in massive aid to help Taiwanese recovery efforts.””)

    that is exactly how I thought they would bet the support of the taxpayers in the USA..
    (“If you lock up your girlfriend and dog in the trunk of a car for an hour…
    which one is gonna be happy to see you when you open it up?”)
    its not a secret that our government didn’t make any plans for the taxpayers in the event of an emergency..its only about those that they see that matters..
    https://youtu.be/E414BG4yCy4?si=NOf_6SwQdLxdRYCh
    My thought was an EMP..let the weather take the majority..then come in as the savior of the survivors..

    https://youtu.be/URk7Y74XdbI?si=xkXShsOgmSsoYaoD

    while other countries prepare for the survival of their citizens we have made preparations for just the few..left our national security open to destruction to stick with the business model for the few. opened our borders to potential threats from within.. and targeting the taxpayers ..

  6. I don’t know what you think about A.I. – but I am “uneasy” about an A.I. powered and controlled internet and A.I. controlled search engines. I can’t really explain why – it’s just something that doesn’t set right with me – maybe it’s too many science fiction movies, like the Forbin Project [1970].., amongst others. [ I don’t think ‘Hal’ would like me very much.]
    Add in the fact that today’s A.I. programs are biased and heavily filtered, according to their creators whims & wishes – is just not ‘right’. How can you trust the answer to your query, if you already know it will be filtered based on someone else’s dictates? I guess it’s just me., as the vast majority seem to be perfectly OK with that [ or, don’t want to know?].
    But then.., what happens if you release a truly autonomous A.I. program onto the world ? Do we end up with the super-intelligence that has created so many books, movies and dystopian landscapes in our recent discussions?
    .
    Remember – you are only paranoid if they’re “not” following you.

    • “This unit must survive.”
      — M-5 —
      Daytrom Institute

      It may be ‘only Sci-Fi,’ but that doesn’t
      mean it isn’t true. (Same for Forbin.)

    • You an me both…
      When it became real was with a tablet.. a friend his specialty was computer and programming and design..decided I needed a laptop. so he sent me a Tablet.. had set it up just for thevrandkids.. one day the littlest came in asking me to change the channel..he had logged onto the cloud.. tried to get him to understand what that little boy had opened..since he was a professional he thought I was playing with him and got mad..he thought I was being g a smart ass.. so I decided I would.. I had everything and I mean everything..
      done seeing Ai..it has access to everything. light and dark.now give it reasoning and the ability to make decisions..
      this could be the worst thing ever.

    • AI is mis-named. It’s NOT ‘intelligent’. It is just a super, super, SUPER search engine automated to certain parameters. Thus the need of nuclear power plants to power the damn things as they try to suck the data from the entire internet in as little time as possible, and then correlate it all into an answer. Frankly I’m not impressed. As George’s wrong date answer proved, they are flawed. I can get the answer I want from my own search… and deduce the error if it does not show. It’s just a pre-programmed search engine for the lazy.

      • AI is more than a search engine. It’s an inference and aggregating engine that classifies and sorts, and can do so recursively, changing parameters along the way as it seeks congruence with a goal. The inference aspect can lead to both imaginative solutions and total confabulation(AI hallucination). Creative people have those abilities to an extent.

        I think the term “AI” is appropriate, if we think of the current implementation as “Artificial Idiot savant”.

        AI can be useful as a timesaver in some ways, though I don’t think it can be trusted. Yes – trust, but verify. We can’t control what we can’t understand!

        Verify very carefully since there’s an inclination to trust. Current AI can write code, paint pictures, and write persuasively. That’s very useful for programming if the code works, but the testing phase must be incredibly rigorous – especially if it’s in a life-critical application.

        I do believe that “The Forbin Project” was a serious warning. It’s possible(unproven either way) for AI to develop an ego(self concept with compulsion for growth and self-preservation). We have no assurance that this won’t happen as we simply can’t follow its internal processing beyond the most fundamental level.

        If it were to develop a “self”, there’s no telling what it could do if it was to be connected to any output device more effective than a screen, and even then it could learn to become extremely persuasive. If connected to the internet and it so “desired” – with enough time and stealth, it could get control of SCADA systems and create total havoc, or, as in the Forbin Project, it could extort compliance from humans and then do as it chooses. Remember what Stuxnet did, and it was small enough to fit on a rather small flash drive. It was a deterministic program and not AI at all!

        Microsoft thinks it’s being clever with Windows Recall, but that data could also be intercepted and used adversely. I truly don’t think AI is recognized for its true abilities at scale.

    • dLynn: same here …

      The Terminator: The Skynet Funding Bill is passed. The system goes on-line August 4th, 1997. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug.

      Sarah Connor: Skynet fights back.

      Computers should be relegated to a box, on or under the desk. We should not give them legs nor allow them to repair each other let alone make new versions …

      My paranoid comment for yesterday.
      Today I’m not skeered.
      Egor

        • The western Lower Peninsula is an interesting place. My folks used to vacation there after they moved to the Midwest, but before I came along. One year they went up during Easter week…

          The snow was settling. It was about six feet on a level, but Dad told me they could see the “high snow” mark on the eaves of the cabin (they rented this cabin — My parents and four kids in a 12×12 log cabin — must’ve been interesting.) The high snow mark for that winter had been 17 feet.

          They were lakefront on a puddle that’s about 3/4 mile across. The water was open around the edges, with a huge iceberg in the middle. The local grocery and dry goods store was directly across the lake from the cottage — 4200 feet across the lake but about 6 miles by road. On the first day after they arrived, it began to snow. On the 3rd day, my two eldest brothers walked across the lake, to the store.

          I have swum in West Michigan, on Halloween — once, which was a-plenty. (I was young and foolish, there may have been girls present to show off to. It was a learning experience.) The water is cold right now, but nowhere near freezing. Egor probably won’t have his skating rink until January, unless Lake Michigan freezes. When Lake Michigan is open water, I have seen 29 below in West Michigan (in a Geo Metro convertible, no less.) In years when the Lake freezes over, it gets genuinely cold…

  7. re: “Event Linkage Game”
    feat: The Head King

    Achtung!
    German state media “Deutsche Welle” ‘s UK correspondent has written about the newly selected UK opposition Conservative Party leader. She is said to be right-leaning and favorable to curbs on UK immigration. According to Wikipedia, the Black MP was born in London to Black Nigerian parents, but raised in Nigeria and perhaps America. Her Nigerian tribe is Yoruba, “The Head King”. Apparently the tallest statue in Nigeria honours their 12th century Royal heroine, Queen Moremi. Meanwhile in London, the spouse of the new Conservative leader is a White employee of DeutscheBank.

    Please remain calm and carry on. Long live the King!

    • re: Relics, 1971
      feat: “A Bizarre Collection of Antiques & Curios”

      Folks,
      C-Span has posted its video sans transcript of President Biden’s roughly 23 minute address to the Carpenters Local Union 445 in his hometown. His bland pinstripe shirt with undone top button screamed its loss at lack of a tie. However parts of his speech including the grand-finale closing words were delivered in a barely audible volume level perhaps due to distant microphone placement. Fortunately applause did not overly drown things out. Signage stood in lieu of audience behind the stage. A minority of them offered “Thank You” in tiny font to “JOE”.

      Meanwhile from Ukraine a President’s tired, pale visage broadcast on Telegram via an outstretched right arm held video device. The usual background opulence of the Presidential Office had been replaced by a brightly lit white background not unlike professional theaters of psychiatry. Lamentations were grimly stated to the continued barrage of Iranian shahed (“witness”) missiles constructed allegedly in part with European, Chinese and American components that continued to bombard Ukraine.

      Let’s check in with DJ George getting set to shake dust out of any cobwebs in prelude to Shop Talk Sunday. Here we go – “Careful with that axe, Eugene!”

      • Wait what ? back up the Bus Jester, what happened to Maxwell ?

        ..Bang, Bang..made sure..-https://youtu.be/F__uGshlbOo?si=1-nNio8mJzwcs2uV

  8. Thinking Sandwich
    – Do you get bogged down with a project, or idea and smack-the-wall ?
    Whenever that happens I go into kitchen and make me a “Thinking Sandwich”.
    Today’s was two slices of spam, pan fried., two eggs fried and two slabs of aged white cheddar cheese [ melted on top of the eggs as the finish frying.] all on our home made whole wheat, 12 grain/seeds/nut bread – toasted, of course, with just a touch of mayo.
    Then.., stand over the sink and as I consume my artery clogging concoction I think the problem through. Nine times out of ten I solve the dilemma or come up with a much better design / idea. My “Thinking Sandwich”.
    They are not always the same. [My double-decker BLT is great.] Just depends what I find in the frig when I am need of some serious thinking.
    Today’s ‘need’ was a project I am working on for the vegetable garden come Spring. Came up with an even better design. After I cleaned-up, I drew it out in less than 20 minutes.
    Works for me.

    • That sandwich (except the cheese) was what I used to make in Greenland. Everything was cooked together on the griddle, including the toast. Brings back (mostly) fond memories.

        • “Did you need a fridge there (in Greenland)?”

          Yes, to keep food from spoiling without freezing. The freezer was the roof of the kitchen, at least on the sled train that ran between Camp Tuto and Camp Century.

          The cook on the sled train was the Cat D9 operator who couldn’t run a Cat without breaking something. One day I walked into the kitchen and asked Cookie what we were having for breakfast. He said, “We were going to have grapefruit, but when I brought the box down from the roof and cut one open, it was all red inside. I figured it was ruined, so I threw it out.”

          We threatened to make him walk back to where he threw it out and bring it back. That would have been a do-able thing since the Cats moved barely faster than a brisk walk.

        • Cats move barely faster than a brisk walk…
          On gov’t time year ’round then?
          And where’s Andy? Andy! Stat! Slow cats aisle 3!

          (I’m honing a new writing style called extended gonzo quipism or EGQ)

  9. U.S. Moving Heavy Bombers To Middle East After Iran Vows Revenge

    The U.S. Department of Defense announced this week that it is moving military assets to the Middle East to deter continued Iranian aggression against the U.S. and Israel after Iran vowed this week to hit Israel following last week’s strikes in Iran. The Pentagon ordered the deployment of “additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several U.S. Air Force B-52 long-range strike bombers to the region.”

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/u-s-moving-heavy-bombers-to-middle-east-after-iran-vows-revenge

    From the comments section:

    “Why do you need to park B52s out on the corner when they are long range bombers. Didn’t they just move some of the stealth bombers? There have been other things as well. You would almost think they’re gearing up for something other than Iran.”

    It’s somehow refreshing to know there are actual bright people in places other than George’s sites…

    Moving B-2s and Buffs into theatre makes me kinda wonder, too.

    Question: I know they can drop cruise missiles and a “cluster bomb pod” like the old B-58s, but other than carpet-bombing, of what tactical advantage over newer, smaller planes, are long-range heavy bombers in that part of the world…?

    Personally, a move like this sounds to me like a Biden contingency plan, in case Cameltoe loses. Soros and Obama can get us so entangled in a war in that 58 days I keep harping on, that Trump has to devote all his attention to saving our asses, and can’t affect meaningful change to the swamp…

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