Panic Next Week: Special Update

I wrote in this morning’s column thusly:

“What we MIGHT infer from such tea leaves is a decline today (to the lower trend level) and then a half-assed rally Monday. “


What we see evolving now with about 90-minutes to the close sure looks like we have punctured the lower side of BOTH the lower right corner trend channels:

What we would expect between now and the close (not as advice, this is purely entertainment, right?) might be lower and then a rally back to (or just above) the lower trend channel at the close.

That’s why I am not trading the short side of this yet.  Swing trading dynamics could lead to a modest bounce over trend Monday and then likely collapse Tuesday which is when CPI is coming. Buy rumors, sell news.

Meantime, as I suggested to a reader:  he should print himself up an MBA for asking what happens when (remaining) money flees stocks and into bonds when the rates keep dropping.

I think it was John Malkovitch who, in the series Blackbeard said it best.  “Well, there is THAT.”

Which is how Peoplenomics has earned its rep as the “Best damn $40 buck economics and life newsletter out there.”


Seat belts ready for middle of next week?  Lloyd Austin going to Israel this week for a quickie says to us “Nukes in 3 weeks, or less.”  Slap that chess timer. And betcherass Vlad just did.

Write when it breaks out, or down.

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George Ure
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23 thoughts on “Panic Next Week: Special Update”

  1. rooty toot toot – look out below knife catchers, da bandicoot is coming thru…and no did not pull a “streamer” (ask G2) .
    Having too much fun for 1 wild eyed gambler to have in a two day period..
    So what does a lucky duck do who finds himself on the correct side of a large Put position (3/17exp.) in a sinking stock ? Thats right campers – quadrupled down on zero date Options in NLY at this AM at Opening(violating own rule of no trade in 1st&Last hr)

    Loaded the boat(with house money), & loaded the truck at the rich ass price of .05 cents per contract. My auto confirms are ringing my phone with execution news at $.15 per as I type. half of me is happier than a pig in scheisse, the other half is concerned this is getting ugly at a rather frightening rate..
    Oh well – smoke em if ya got em, otherwise remember who told ya bout hiding out in blu chipperz paying solidly fat dividends..which is where all proceeds from last 2 days trading will be going..”pay me, pay me, pay me my dividends now” – sung to the tune of Bix Wiers’ “Pay me my SiIver now”.

    We have been kerPOWELLED, once again .

  2. Oh great, panic next week…

    Well, let’s all try to stay calm, and most importantly hope Elaine doesn’t forget to water the crows. That would be a bad omen for sure, and might even trigger a new post by Stu.

  3. There’s nothing to worry about! What a relief! LOL!

    Yellen says banking system ‘resilient’ as she meets regulators in response to Silicon Valley Bank closure.

  4. George,

    Thanks for clarifying that the CPI is out next Tuesday. Just woke up from naptime here to hear at the 9’50” mark of WSLS coverage from the Roosevelt Room that kind of confused me. “CPI is out Tuesday…Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday…sometime next week…”.

    Job creation is going great guns with this administration, “lot’s of great jobs that don’t require a college degree” being created – supersized stuff, George, supersized.

    Alarms going off? Anyone else like the look of the books on the mantelpiece now under the portrait of the Mark Twain-styled “Earthquake”? What happened to the clock?

    Okay, times up. It’s Friday. Someone’s gotta chopper to catch. All aboard to New Castle!

  5. Silicon Valley Bank collapse – closed mid day today by the FDIC

    This is NOT your everyday consumer bank, it is not just the 16th largest in the US it is THE COMMERCIAL BANK used by the Silicon Valley Venture Capitalist crowd for financing their Bay area “new technology” bets.

    It is, now was, the bank that was in the middle of much of the hyper active “new tech” investing going on there … and it wouldn’t suprise me if some of those funding deals REQUIRED the funded startup to use them as their bank and to keep their START UP FUNDING money in that bank.

    I am sure George will talk about it tomorrow … but the sudden closure of Silicon Valley Bank could have some serious ripple effects across the entire Start Up Company universe, maybe even cause a number of Start Up companies to collapse if the FDIC can’t find a bank willing to take over SVB (remember accounts are only insured by the FDIC up to $250,000 … that doesn’t help much if you have your $30 million in start up funding being held by that bank)

  6. I consider us to be in a depression. Papered over by extreme money expansion and stupid low interest rates.. but the gambit has reached the extents of its use. Decline in auto production, housing and consistent supply chain failures support my contention on economic issues. Wall Street is just now waking up to this fact. Whether the market goes up or down next week is immaterial. More and more I expect the market to look like an auto dealers empty lot.. this depression has been here lurking for three years already. maybe we only have five more years of it ahead…

  7. The speed with which SVB collapsed was staggering, if not unprecedented. All of the Companies which relied on SVB to meet payroll are going to be in trouble.
    It doesn’t require a Lehman Brothers class failure to plunge the economy into chaos. Economic death by a thousand financial paper cuts will get the job done.
    That no other bank or investment group would attempt a bail-out of SVB is a bit suspicious. I would not have thought that it would be possible for depositors to remove that amount of deposits that quickly. Where were the regulators?

  8. Silicon Valley Bank Chief Executive Officer Greg Becker sold $3.6 million of company stock under a trading plan less than two weeks before the firm disclosed extensive losses that led to its failure.

    The sale of 12,451 shares on February 27 was the first time in more than a year that Becker had sold shares in parent company SVB Financial Group, according to regulatory filings. He filed the plan that allowed him to sell the shares on Jan. 26.

    Greg Becker is no longer a director of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, according to a Fed spokesman.

    The rumor I heard was that there were 5-6 board members besides Becker, who unloaded their holdings and consolidated their positions within that same timeframe. Economic Times and Barrons are the only places which have writeups at this time. I suspect others will by the time George rolls out of the rack.

    BTW, does anyone besides me derive pleasure from watching Kramer turn purple on CNBC?

    • I get that…. I have been through the financial death spiral a few times.. horrifically scary.. living at the bottom.. you make x dollars.. even in a good paying job.. the debt and income ratio has to be equal otherwise your upside down..
      I make a budget yearly.. all depending on the income equality remains the same.. a sudden rise in expenses..will put you to close to the margins. Then an unexpected event.. either coming up or happening.. and the spiral begins.. it will go down a little .. then even out maybe even increase … that is how I suckered myself into working so many hours. the wage levels I was hireable at.. were at the bottom of the heap.. the lowest of low wages.. my credit was destroyed and I became the unexpected statistic.. happens all the time.. then you will get some place that preys on those in that position.. they know you need this or that.. so they offer it to you make it look enticing..or and unexpected expense happens.. Like flat tire or transmission trouble.. so you contemplate what do I do.. there isn’t any adequate public transit.. ( the best option) or you get it fixed.. at first this goes good to.. maybe you do like me and figure well I could slide ten more hours of work in.. and you do.. or you have to get another car to get back and forth to your job.. and they get you by selling you a car that is worth ten times less money.. it doesn’t matter.. the thing is.. you see it happening and are totally powerless to stop it.. most people at the onset of a financial spiral or economic recession.. cut spending in the place they can.. food.. they buy more bulk items and less nutricious items.. employers don’t want to affect the execs at the top so they cut products or product costs.. or they cut the lower end of the employees.. the hospital I worked at would cut the floor staff.. which is why.. the medical field is the most notorious on working short shifts.. it is nothing to see a medical facility where they play tag your it.. and leave..
      So for four or five of these guys to sell off stocks.. that was what I would have done to.. you see it coming.. you cannot stop it.. the stock is still valued so dump it..
      We see that today.. and you can see it for yourself.. walk into your pantry or storage closet and take a look at how many rolls of toilet paper you have.. then compare it to what you USE to keep around.. I am almost willing to bet that you will see a few extra rolls than what you normally had two years ago..depending on what you didn’t have but needed will be determine what you have extra of..
      those at the bottom of the pile like myself.. are right now spending money before it isn’t worth anything.. if you bought groceries a year ago..then you basically.. made a thirty percent return on your ..investment ..
      Similar to the Tomorrow man.. the pantry scene.. its your 401k
      as an average wage earner.. you know that you are not going to get a substantial raise.. if minimum wage followed the average cost of living.. the minimum wage would be about fifty dollars after the damage that has been accomplished the past couple of years now.. the minimum wage should be more close to a hundred an hour.. so those with are seeing their status in life drop down.. kids are moving home because mom and dad bought before the fall of social class living.. and people are gambling.. it all started in the early Reagan recession years when they deregulated basic essentials to increase profits.. then bailed out the big bankers.. that happily distributed it among themselves as bonuses and disection of our industrial cities to send overseas to increase their profits.. I don’t have a graph.. but if you have a graph showing the climb of those in the top bracket compared to those in the working field.. I am pretty sure it would show them being shot into the stratosphere..
      I don’t blame those five.. they knew and seen it coming.. I would have done the same thing especially if I knew that my economic survival and future was all tied up in those few stocks.. anyway.. that is my long explanation of my perspective on stock sales..

  9. Brian Maher: Is SVB Just the Beginning?

    Our guard should have gone rocketing up last month — when Mr. Jim Cramer recommended Silicon Valley Bank stock to his listeners.

    That is because the fellow is a nearly perfect “contrarian indicator.” If he says x you can very reliably wager on y.

    SVB stock was trading hands at $320 that day. Today it trades hands at $0. It has vanished from existence.

    Silicon Valley Bank — formerly the 18th-largest bank in the United States — has fallen into receivership, defunct, destitute and dead.

    It is presently in the hands of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

    Its demise represents the largest bank flunking since 2008’s Great Financial Crisis.

    • Hmmmmm – Jimmys been a big critic of all things cyrpto, specially BTC.

      Seems as though we are witnessing “bird flu” infecting yet another flock of “finchickens”..ya know birds of a feather flock together sort a thing. cept these burds eat Fiat feed, whereas cyrpto Birds of Prey will eat all others as opportunities allow…

      Chicken Cluckers ( cluckclucluck) or Screaming Eagles (”the world is a manacled place”

  10. FWIW

    I went to my bank (one of the big 5 Canadian banks) Friday morning about 11 am to get $150 in cash. The banking machine inside the front door of the bank was occupied with a customer obviously having problems getting cash. I just assumed he did not know what he was doing. After about 5 minutes of waiting and listening to the frustrated customer, I went inside the bank to a teller and as requested by the teller, put my card in to the machine, entered my PIN and asked for $150.

    “I’m sorry, we are not able to give out cash right now” replied the teller. No reason. “You’ll have to use the banking machine.” I returned to the machine where another 5 minutes passed while the customer continued to try and get his cash.

    I left and returned about an hour later and was able to get my $150 but the delay time after entering my PIN number was substantially longer than ever before.

    Just a coincidence with the SVB crash I guess. Our big 5 Canadian banks are way too big to fail.

    • the stories I heard from the woman my parents bought their home from.. was one woman said that her husband in 29 dumped ten thousand in the bank.. they were the most prosperous in the city.. large land owners.. had the biggest and fanciest house in the city.. the next morning.. they had a piece of paper saying how much was in the account.. just no bank .. they became the poorest in town.. the people I know have this ugly feeling that what they have today will not be here tomorrow.. so they are trying to buy the simple pleasures that they can get before they won’t be able to afford them.. I get that .. I am beginning to think the same way they are right now.. spin the roulette wheel and see if your a winner.. LOL LOL .. the bad thing is.. IF you do.. and slow joe and company doesn’t destroy the country and actually puts all those trillions to work rebuilding the USA better.. then you have to be able to come up with it.. LOL LOL

        • that is true and wise advice to someone that makes a great deal of money in a career…. the problems arise with the laborers over seventy percent of those working for wages…. the wage earners are being held back and if you have children.. your target one..hey that brings up Adolphs second book.. dam if he wasn’t right on the money… It wasn’t that long ago that we heard that if minimum wage went up to fifteen dollars an hour.. that the whole system would collapse..
          yet we all know that fifteen dollars an hour wouldn’t even cover the cost of health insurance, a car payment and car insurance, auto expenses or any medical expenses, clothing or any fun activities… much less any living expenses.. so would they just not get health insurance or own a car buy gasoline or oil changes etc..just use mass transit.. or live next to SanFran they rent out a bunk bed for two grand a month no kitchen and a shared bath….. my grand daughter called.. to see how we were all doing.. anyway she got visiting and said she took on a new job in management… DAYCARE….she finally found one that is in the price she almost can afford per child…
          12.50 per hour.. she just can’t drop them off.. she has to pay for a set amount of time.. fifty hours or more depending on your employer and their needs.. gives an hour to travel and an hour just in case there is an issue at the job that requires that she has to work a few minutes over..
          if you you don’t pick the child up.. they take them to
          social services.. I believe she was hinting that like the kids.. she would like to get great grandma and great grandpa to move down there to stay and babysit while she works..that was her basic invitation when you coming to visit for a few days.. LOL
          as an hourly worker.. the odds are that they cannot live debt free.. IF… you are lucky enough to make enough to pay your cost of living.. ( her house payment is twelve hundred a month.. )
          those on an hourly wage.. are rarely able to put money away…those without children.. still have a hard time.. it is easier.. you have no obligations to pay for except yourself.. you can eat snack ramen noodles.. every meal.. around here you see a great deal of kids all moving home with mom and dad.. heck my kids built a shed.. I had told them its big enough put a couple of apartments above.. they didn’t and now wish they had..
          in the bigger expensive cities.. then you have a group that rents…
          Its really good advice.. just not practical in the real wage earner world.. heck I have to come up with three hundred a month just for home taxes.. and another two hundred for home insurance.. six hundred for auto insurance.. that is just the basics.. not the house payment or any of the utilities etc.. that is six dollars an hour out of your take home income just for that.. not one dime for anything else.. and wages in the wastelands average out to fifteen and below.. my banker friend and I was visiting a while back.. and he laughed and said he interviewed a few kids from college.. they wanted more money an hour than he made.. LOL LOL

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