We may come to a time of “impact risk this week” and, along with it the possibility of supply chain disruptions looms large. I speak, of course, about the May Day celebration of International Workers Day and – at least in China – Youth Day on May 4th. Millions in China will turn this into … Read More
A “mini focus” in our ChartPack considers “Country Rotation” of Super Powers – something which has been in place for more than 700-years. Not often described, it’s more of a driver behind modern events than most realize. Fed week is about to begin and with it, odd of at least a quarter point rate hike … Read More
Ure lost $49 in the stock market Thursday. Which, as I will explain, was a very good thing. This is a primo example of one of our Trading Laws discussed Thursday. The one that warned: Don’t hold a loss. Not even for an hour. Sure enough, I went into a trade which, it turned out, wasn’t a bad call, per … Read More
Turbo Thursday begins with another “Kiss and Collapse” ponder. This is ALL about making money, so listen up. You see, there is some axiomatic thinking that many people “playing stocks” just never seem to figure out. Not surprisingly, even with help, their “returns” are often in the range of annual inflation. Some simple ideas that have … Read More
Past global wars have never to such an extend, relied on the continued construction and operation of foreign assets. As tensions continue to increase worldwide, but most noticeably in Ukraine and Taiwan, we can appreciate the changing role of “foreign assets.” Today, we use our thought frameworks to look ahead to the coming few months … Read More
I guess today’s Housing report matters, to the degree you can drive by looking in the rearview mirror. We’d mentioned before that it seems like a slow topping process was ongoing as net-to-seller due to higher interest rates was coming home to land on the mini-bubble: S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX DECLINES MODERATED IN FEBRUARY YEAR-OVER-YEAR … Read More
Posted earlier than normal due to Housing update due (a Bulldog edition) Technical Tuesday around here is usually the “after action” analysis of my latest day trading frenzy. To save the asking, yes, I made some lunch money on that short position taken near the close Friday. Was it George Peppard, “the Colonel” (a/k/a Hannibal … Read More
Money Monday, and we will see in coming hours if my going short into the close of stocks Friday will be a hit or a miss. Small wager only – no point bleeding out before The End. Likely the most interesting part of this morning’s column is towards the end. In the Around the Ranch (ATR) … Read More
For a little while, looks like: Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G4 – Severe NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents – Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from … Read More
Since I lived full-time on my 40-foot offshore capable sailboat for nearly a dozen years up and down the West Coast, I should begin with a sailing story. When I bought the boat (following a legendary expensive divorce), it was a dandy cross between Peter Pan’s adventures and living in Superman’s “Fortress of Solitude.” Just like … Read More
We call today’s discourse “Thousand Paper Cuts Trading” with good reason. We begin this fine spring weekend by asking what do Sophia Loren, Stephen Boyd, Alec Guinness, James Mason, Christopher Plummer, Mel Ferrer, and Omar Sharif have in common? If you guessed “That 1964 blockbuster “The Fall of the Roman Empire” you’d be right. Which is really our main point this … Read More
Although stock futures (early) showed the S&P down 10 and the Dow down 50-ish, we published our expectations Thursday morning and they really haven’t changed. “What we might see – and some of this has to do with Options mechanics – might be a decline today and a rally Friday. Our Peoplenomics subscribers will see the set-up … Read More
Troubling Thursday begins with a mandatory market check. Which, in the early Futures pricing today was about what you’d expect for Index Options Day. Dow futures were pointing down some 130-points in the early going. Upon inspection of our Aggregate Index, we see how troubled markets are lining up for a possible downside surprise next … Read More