We will spend a few minutes on the “Cycletron” spreadsheet after the ChartPack today. Looking at some ideas about the future that may be useful in plotting your own course to, and through, what seems to be coming. As you’ll remember, I built a spreadsheet that lets you consider a range of starting points from … Read More
Here’s a shocker for you: The day after Memorial Day this year, the total U.S. Public Debt to the Penny was $31,463,988,658,765.75. Too many numbers for this early in the day? Then call it $31.46 trillion. As of the most recent numbers posted, the Public Debt to the Penny is up to $32,661,578,249,677.03. But again, … Read More
The stock market seems as though Wave 2 – the big rally since fall of 2022 – is over, done, and we are at the precipice of Wave 3 down. As we’ve explained, this wave holds potential for markets to be halved by May of 2024. As a chart, we look to the area of the … Read More
We don’t know where the idea of directed energy weapons being used on American targets came from, but it does make for a curious line of inquiry. Which we will take up this morning after a couple of other items. Perhaps the largest of which is the ChartPack, which as we have been telling you … Read More
There’s a book from the 1960s which all the old-timers around here have read: “Report from Iron Mountain – on the accessibility and desirability of peace.” So controversial was (and still is) the book that it has an extensive Wikipedia entry and offers insights into the modern economy’s “grow or die” problems. “The heavily footnoted … Read More
Third Friday of each month the financial showdown called Options Expiration takes place. These come in several flavors, the savoriest of which are Equities and Index. Essentially Index options time-out at the Thursday close and stocks (Equities) Friday. Seems simple enough but peeling it back to a reasonable set of expectations is an “Onion Project” … Read More
We have had a dandy past month, or so, working sitting-down, inside a nice, air-conditioned office/workspace, fixing up old electronics. But, with the arrival of Fall, we’re readying for our very serious work mode again. It’s therefore appropriate to talk a little about safety and recycling. A Shop PPE Station Yes. It’s what son G2 … Read More
We needed a tool for test-fitting economic cycle lengths from the American Revolutionary War period. So, here it is. Not to be confused with the Cyclotron in physics. What? You don’t wake up with software/cycle questions in your head on Saturday morning? What are you, normal or something? Before we speak with Abby Normal, a … Read More
Having been up all night (the ER visit for Elaine, see ATR) it’s not too difficult to fire brain cells jacked up on tea… We are sad that our expectation of 50+ dead, laid out in the Thursday column on word of the Hawaii fires was right. Maui wildfires death toll at 55 as warning … Read More
Let’s do the CPI report first – everyone is interested in that: “The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased … Read More
While we await data, some reflection on where the notion of “five steps to a market move” may be rooted. One of the most interesting notions in a while (lassoed from my office chair) is the one that says just as people handle Death Grieving with five stations, so too a deep psychological drama is … Read More
Recognize the Dates? The first date is easy. It’s when the stock market blowdown in October of 1929 was initially OVER. The market had peaked September 3, 1929. Like ours did in this longwave economic cycle on November 8, 2021. The markets fell – worried about future prospects – until finally staging a good rally. … Read More
Although the market has put on something of a rally for the early slog today, don’t hold your breath for the rest of the week. Things could turn brutal as early as Tuesday when economic reports begin to drop. The granddaddy of them all is the CPI Thursday. Despite the Siren song of Modern Monetary … Read More