One of the big stories, beginning to get some traction is how the rain in California (as much as 11-inches in a few places) could drive up the price of food this spring. This is not a “remarkable first” in human history. Not even close. A selection of reads to lay out some corner posts … Read More

As long as dams hold, and forecast models don’t break, the worst of the weekend weather in California is now passing.  But it has been one hell of a storm.  Mudslides, winds exceeding hurricane force, and places with more than 7-inches of rain. Let’s do a quick post mort, shall we? SoCal first.  As you … Read More

Only a couple of quickies this morning: Too early to tell for certain but looks like the war news flow hasn’t gotten too much heavier.  Leading to an early dart toss for an up day in markets tomorrow.  IF things remain calm. Ultra-Make.com website rolls through solar panel and system maintenance while we do the … Read More

The Future is getting more predictable by the day it seems.  So this morning, a few thoughts on how it could roll out in coming days and weeks. Plus our anticipated rally to fill a critical trading box? Well, we almost got there Friday.Or, did we? Toss in an earthquake in Oklahoma and floods coming … Read More

I said all of what I had to say (about mis-direction over actual Jobs data) in our Thursday column.  As we expected, the Big Bouncy Thursday was a reasonable call.  Which brings us to this morning’s coverage of the Bureau of Labor Statistics “offishul” jobs report. To make this easy for you to follow, we … Read More

Slow is good. OK, a little grating sometimes.  But overall, slow is sometimes the best course. BBT (Big Bouncy Thursday) Big Bounce Thursday is our beginning example.  The Dow sold off more than 300-points Wednesday.  Mainly because the Federal Reserve didn’t cave-in to the habitual panhandlers on Wall Street who always want something (like a … Read More

You see, Life is kinda like that point in checkers where you can move anywhere, but so can your opponent.  In order to win, the key lesson is always being “one jump ahead.” Except, we don’t habitually think in this aggressive, in charge, pro-active mode.  People just react to “whatever” and that’s a shortcut to … Read More

Perhaps not to trigger the Fed, we found the wording of this morning’s S&P Case-Shiller Housing report interesting: NEW YORK, JANUARY 30, 2024:  S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for November 2023 show that 12 … Read More

[First of a two-part column today: Housing data in the next report about 8:15 Central] We know – from first-hand in-country reports out of places like Costa Rica (where we have intelligent readers) – that someone is loading up South Americans and bringing them to the U.S. border to be part of the Invasion of America. … Read More

Our sense of the market this week is to be wary for a sell-off before the Fed Meeting results Wednesday. Especially if you have been following the CME Fed tool which is not particularly happy about the odds of a Fed move this week. There’s a ton of data this too, so a double-whammy on the … Read More

The once-credible Drudge Report has flipped into the sensationalist column, as we figure it. Headlining that an ARMED TRUCKER CONVOY is headed to the Biden-backed open border. When one takes the time to make a disciplined read of reports, the link off the “ARMED” fearcast leads to the story The MAGA Truckers are Back—And Heading to … Read More

We make more money being short the market. But in the short term some NY Fed data out Friday bears a closer look. Which we will do as well as we size up the rest of the economy. I think the bottom line might surprise you. It did us. Then we’ll review the real-life inflation … Read More

Fairytales are fun.  Though usually best delivered by a loving parent, not our own government for crying out loud.  But sometimes we don’t have a choice. Call me the Burger King…because here’s today’s Whopper: “Personal income increased $60.0 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in December. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased … Read More