There’s not really much to talk about ion markets this morning. The Dow put on a marvelous short squeeze Wednesday but in the after math this morning, look for the Dow to give back some of that as the day wears on. The reason being it’s a three day weekend for markets and there’s a good chance that the Ukraine situation could change for the worse (much worse) by Monday if Vlad Putin gets is T levels too high.
The unemployment claims for last week came in about 8,000 lower than expected, which convinced the futures that the world was not ending just this minute, so we slid back to about an even opening level.
Goldman earnings came out and yes, their net income fell, but it was better than what the street was looking for, so score another one for the bear squeezing bulls.
Consumer spending dropped in Japan in the overnight action, but it didn’t impact markets much. In the European action today, most markets are up a bit, so it looks like a pretty calm day for trading as options expire and money types make this a three-day weekend.
I must not be a money type…we’ll be here grinding out wit and sarcasm (for a change) tomorrow.
Russia Working US Spying on Civs
Edward Snowden is asking Vlad Putin about civilian surveillance, which is writ large here in the (former) land of the free. Putin claims the Russians don’t engage in it.
Beer on the side says one of two things is true: Either not as much OR they just haven’t been caught at it yet, like the American alphabeteers have been. Give it time.
More after this…
WW III: Running the Numbers
As you’ll see in the Coping section this morning, there is plenty of bad stuff that has happened on April 19th and 20th, so we look at this weekend with a great deal of suspicion.
As you may have heard, a round of talks involving four parties will take place in Geneva about now. But don’t hold your breath because there is likely nothing to come of them except more talk about more talk. That’s usually how these things go, at any rate.
Which gets us to the short-term outlook: To review, the Russians are supposed to wind-up their massive military “exercises”: near the Ukraine border by Monday. But, if Russia really does have its eye on recapture of Eastern Europe, which has all that delicious arms manufacturing capability in advance of their having to take on China over all the resources in Mongolia/Siberia in a half-dozen years, then Putin will likely move sooner than later.
All of which sets us up for this morning’s strategic view from our war gamer warhammer…
George,
When the Crimea was annexed by Putin, I explained how the move violated every principal of international convention developed since the advent of Geneva Conventions post WWII. Such a bold Ukrainian annexation demanded a diplomatic demarche from both NATO and their (up til now) chief military member, the U.S. The Daily Mail penned a pointed article which makes what I believe to be a very valid case – we are facing what could be the advent of something much greater than a ‘simple’ Ukrainian civil war because of the (in)actions taken to date by the American administration.
My professional judgment in this situation is that as tension builds, intentions may become clouded.
The current militaries of America and Russia are untested in the art of deterrence theory. As a result, unskilled guessing and untested intuition replace game theory-based decision-making, relegating military deterrence to a novice game instead of one abiding by established treaties and strict international protocols or facing mutual assured destruction.
Inexperienced gamblers often bluff and decide to go ‘all in,’ illogically risking everything on an empty hand. So it is in matters of state and their inexperienced military regimes.
If one side is bluffing and they don’t fold when matters become extremely dicey, vanity and pride overrule cool, calculating logic and military escalation begins. The end result could be, well, the end. On the other hand, when one side continually bluffs and folds, the other side makes bigger and bolder claims, knowing they will not meet serious resistance.
Putin stands poised for his moment in time, a glorious and unopposed reclamation of former Soviet satellite countries under the strong, sweeping arms of mighty mother Russia. The Crimea and Eastern Ukraine is likely just the tip of Putin’s pointy spear. And make no mistake here – Putin is definitely not bluffing.
Should he suddenly be faced with resistance from a formidable military opponent, Putin may be deterred from advancing further, deciding instead to hold the lines and bide his time until the clamoring dies down. Putin knows that his chief opponent ‘is’ bluffing. So he has little to lose and much to gain.
If NATO and/or the US continue to bluff the very serious and determined Putin, and the bluff is noticeably weak or fails to ‘cover the bet,’ then there is no doubt in my vacuous cranial cavity that Putin will fully and quickly exploit the bluff, embarrassing NATO and particularly the U.S. in the process through a steady series of land grabs meant to reclaim an empire.
The choice is binary – the west must either make a committed, “all in” stand against further illegal Russian annexation or it must accept Russian advances and conquests. Bluffing a stand without the necessary deterrent force in place equates to weakness, leaving only the doomsday nuclear option for halting further Russian advances.
Meanwhile, the leaders in Poland can clearly see that massive speeding light down the Ukrainian tunnel.
Polish leaders are requesting a strong military commitment, evidenced by U.S. forces on the ground ala Cold War West Germany. Listening to their former Warsaw Pact neighbor and watching Russia make bold land grabs, NATO head Anders Fogh Rasmussen bravely and quickly (quicker than the U.S.) proclaimed that NATO is moving more troops toward E. Europe
What follows will sound to some of Ure readers like the rantings of a ‘hawk.’ To those individuals I would say, “no, I’m a realist. Evil does not understand idealism, altruism and the unabashed nobility of all humanity. They understand power. The power which they crave is also the same power that they fear.
So the chess pieces are lining up. Much is at stake if diplomacy ultimately fails. Diplomacy is more digestible when military power is standing ready. Unfortunately for America, the U.S. economy demands their once mighty military suffer massive cuts to manpower and equipment to ‘help pay the bills.’ How can America gin up another ‘containment’ operation against Russia (as it successfully did during the Cold War) when just two months ago troops were in serious danger of not being paid because the sequester locked down their defense budget? The U.S. is weaker, and Putin knows it. Still, American military might is sufficient to induce a reasonable amount of fear in Putin and his pawns if played right.